Significant human health co-benefits of mitigating African emissions.

Future African aerosol emissions, and therefore air pollution levels and health outcomes, are uncertain and understudied. Understanding the future health impacts of pollutant emissions from this region is crucial. Here, this research gap is addressed by studying the range in the future health impacts of aerosol emissions from Africa in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, using the UK Earth System Model version 1 (UKESM1), along with human health concentration-response functions. The effects of Africa following a high-pollution aerosol pathway are studied relative to a low-pollution control, with experiments varying aerosol emissions from industry and biomass burning. Using present-day demographics, annual deaths within Africa attributable to ambient particulate matter are estimated to be lower by 150 000 (5th-95th confidence interval of 67 000-234 000) under stronger African aerosol mitigation by 2090, while those attributable to O3 are lower by 15 000 (5th-95th confidence interval of 9000-21 000). The particulate matter health benefits are realised predominantly within Africa, with the O3-driven benefits being more widespread - though still concentrated in Africa - due to the longer atmospheric lifetime of O3. These results demonstrate the important health co-benefits from future emission mitigation in Africa.

Scientific data from precipitation driver response model intercomparison project.

This data descriptor reports the main scientific values from General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). The purpose of the GCM simulations has been to enhance the scientific understanding of how changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and incoming solar radiation perturb the Earth's radiation balance and its climate response in terms of changes in temperature and precipitation. Here we provide global and annual mean results for a large set of coupled atmospheric-ocean GCM simulations and a description of how to easily extract files from the dataset. The simulations consist of single idealized perturbations to the climate system and have been shown to achieve important insight in complex climate simulations. We therefore expect this data set to be valuable and highly used to understand simulations from complex GCMs and Earth System Models for various phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.

Characterization of major natural and anthropogenic source profiles for size-fractionated PM in Yangtze River Delta.

Samples of size-fractionated particles were collected from local natural and anthropogenic sources in two industrial cities in the Yangtze River Delta, using either grab/resuspension sampling or ambient air sampling. The chemical characterizations of twenty one source profiles were obtained, based on elements (Al, As, Ca, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Pb and Zn), soluble ions (Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, NH4+, K+, Na+ and Ca2+) and carbonaceous material such as organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC). The profiles vary between sources from different areas, as well as between different particulate sizes. Results show that particulate matter that originated as soil dust, construction dust and fugitive dust is typically rich in crustal elements, especially Al, Ca, Fe and Mg, while the presence of calcium is found to be a hallmark of the cement industry and ceramic industry. Dominant compositions of particles from coal-fired power plants are variable, with OC ranging from 2.2%-27%. Garbage-fired power plant and cooking smoke particulate emissions are enriched in Na, Cl-, OC and K due to the presence of salty and organic matter. The element Fe, ranging from 6.1% to 26.0%, is found to be an important marker for steel production dust. Vehicle exhaust profiles are characterized by high abundances of OC (12.1%-53.6%) and EC (3.9%-20.0%). Burning of straw results in K (1.6%-7.2%) and OC (12.4%-25.9%) being the dominant composition. Preliminary work has also been done on establishing local industrial profiles such as textile, ceramic and electroplating industries. This work could be used in receptor model studies to estimate the contributions of different sources to the size-fractionated particulate matter in the Yangtze River Delta.

Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations.

We investigate the climate response to increased concentrations of black carbon (BC), as part of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). A tenfold increase in BC is simulated by 9 global coupled-climate models, producing a model-median effective radiative forcing (ERF) of 0.82 (ranging from 0.41 to 2.91) Wm-2, and a warming of 0.67 (0.16 to 1.66) K globally and 1.24 (0.26 to 4.31) K in the Arctic. A strong positive instantaneous radiative forcing (median of 2.10 Wm-2 based on five of the models) is countered by negative rapid adjustments (-0.64 Wm-2 for the same five models), which dampen the total surface temperature signal. Unlike other drivers of climate change, the response of temperature and cloud profiles to the BC forcing is dominated by rapid adjustments. Low-level cloud amounts increase for all models, while higher-level clouds are diminished. The rapid temperature response is particularly strong above 400 hPa, where increased atmospheric stabilization and reduced cloud cover contrast the response pattern of the other drivers. In conclusion, we find that this substantial increase in BC concentrations does have considerable impacts on important aspects of the climate system. However, some of these effects tend to offset one another, leaving a relatively small global warming of 0.47 K per Wm-2 - about 20 % lower than the response to a doubling of CO2. Translating the tenfold increase in BC to the present-day impact of anthropogenic BC (given the emissions used in this work) would leave a warming of merely 0.07 K.

Source apportionment of size-fractionated particles during the 2013 Asian Youth Games and the 2014 Youth Olympic Games in Nanjing, China.

In this study, samples of size-fractionated particulate matter were collected continuously using a 9-size interval cascade impactor at an urban site in Nanjing, before, during and after the Asian Youth Games (AYG), from July to September of 2013, and the Youth Olympic Games (YOG), from July to September of 2014. First, elemental concentrations, water-soluble ions including Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, NH4+, K+, Na+ and Ca2+, organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) were analysed. Then, the source apportionment of the fine and coarse particulate matter was carried out using the chemical mass balance (CMB) model. The average PM10 concentrations were 90.4±20.0µg/m3 during the 2013 AYG and 70.6±25.3µg/m3 during the 2014 YOG. For PM2.1, the average concentrations were 50.0±12.8µg/m3 in 2013 and 34.6±17.0µg/m3 in 2014. Investigations showed that the average concentrations of particles declined significantly from 2013 to 2014, and concentrations were at the lowest levels during the events. Results indicated that OC, EC, sulfate and crustal elements have significant monthly and size-based variations. The major components, including crustal elements, water-soluble ions and carbonaceous aerosol accounted for 75.3-91.9% of the total particulate mass concentrations during the sampling periods. Fugitive dust, coal combustion dust, iron dust, construction dust, soil dust, vehicle exhaust, secondary aerosols and sea salt have been classified as the main emissions in Nanjing. The source apportionment results indicate that the emissions from fugitive dust, which was the most abundance emission source during the 2013 AYG, contributed to 23.0% of the total particle mass. However, fugitive dust decreased to 6.2% of the total particle mass during the 2014 YOG. Construction dust (14.7% versus 7.8% for the AYG and the YOG, respectively) and secondary sulfate aerosol (9.3% versus 8.0% for the AYG and the YOG, respectively) showed the same trend as fugitive dust, suggesting that the mitigation measures of controlling particles from the paved roads, construction and industry worked more efficiently during the YOG.