Development and external validation of a home-based risk predicTion modEl of natUral onseT of menopAuse -TEUTA.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and externally validate a 10-year risk prediction model of natural onset of menopause using ready-to-use predictors. DESIGN: Population-based prospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling, premenopausal women aged 28 years and older enrolled in the Swiss (CoLaus) and Dutch (PREVEND) study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of self-reported natural menopause. MODEL DEVELOPMENT: Based on existing literature, 11 predictors were tested in this study. The CoLaus cohort was used to develop the model by applying the backward-elimination approach and Bayesian Model Averaging. Internal validation was performed by bootstrapping. External validation was performed using data from the PREVEND cohort and recalibrating the baseline survival estimate. C-statistic, calibration slopes, and expected/observed probabilities were calculated as measures of model internal and/or external performances. RESULTS: The final analysis included 750 and 1032 premenopausal women from the CoLaus and the PREVEND cohort, respectively. Among them, 445 (59%) from CoLaus and 387 (38%) from PREVEND experienced menopause over a median follow-up of 10.7 and 9 years, respectively. The final model included age, alcohol consumption, smoking status, education level, and systolic blood pressure. Upon external calibration in the PREVEND cohort, the model exhibited good discrimination, with a C-statistic of 0.888 and an expected/observed probability of 0.82. CONCLUSIONS: We present the first internally and externally validated prediction model of natural menopause onset using readily available predictors. Validation of our model to other populations is needed.

Utility of iron biomarkers in differentiating menopausal status: Findings from CoLaus and PREVEND.

AIM: To examine the association of iron biomarkers with menopausal status and assess whether these biomarkers can help differentiate menopausal status beyond age. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study we included 1679 women from the CoLaus and 2133 from the PREVEND cohorts, with CoLaus used as primary cohort and PREVEND for replication. Ferritin, transferrin, iron, and transferrin saturation (TSAT) were used to assess iron status. Hepcidin and soluble transferrin receptor were assessed only in PREVEND. Menopausal status was self-reported and defined as menopausal or non-menopausal. Logistic regressions were used to explore the association of these iron biomarkers with menopause status. Sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), positive and negative predictive values as well as cut-off points for the iron biomarkers were calculated. The model with the highest AUC was defined as the best. RESULTS: In the CoLaus and PREVEND cohorts, respectively, 513 (30.6 %) and 988 (46.3 %) women were postmenopausal. Ferritin (OR, 2.20; 95 % CI 1.72-2.90), transferrin (OR, 0.03; 95 % CI 0.01-0.10), and TSAT (OR, 1.28; 95 % CI 1.06-1.54) were significantly associated with menopausal status in CoLaus, with the findings replicated in PREVEND. AUC of age alone was 0.971. The best model resulted from combining age, ferritin, and transferrin, with an AUC of 0.976, and sensitivity and specificity of 87.1 % and 96.5 %, respectively. Adding transferrin and ferritin to a model with age improved menopause classification by up to 7.5 %. In PREVEND, a model with age and hepcidin outperformed a model with age, ferritin, and transferrin. CONCLUSION: Iron biomarkers were consistently associated with menopausal status in both cohorts, and modestly improved a model with age alone for differentiating menopause status. Our findings on hepcidin need replication.

Endovascular revascularization strategies for aortoiliac and femoropopliteal artery disease: a meta-analysis.

AIMS: Optimal endovascular management of intermittent claudication (IC) remains disputed. This systematic review and meta-analysis compares efficacy and safety outcomes for balloon angioplasty (BA), bare-metal stents (BMS), drug-coated balloons (DCB), drug-eluting stents (DES), covered stents, and atherectomy. METHODS AND RESULTS: Electronic databases were searched for randomized, controlled trials (RCT) from inception through November 2021. Efficacy outcomes were primary patency, target-lesion revascularization (TLR), and quality-of-life (QoL). Safety endpoints were all-cause mortality and major amputation. Outcomes were evaluated at short-term (<1 year), mid-term (1-2 years), and long-term (≥2 years) follow-up. The study was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42021292639). Fifty-one RCTs enrolling 8430 patients/lesions were included. In femoropopliteal disease of low-to-intermediate complexity, DCBs were associated with higher likelihood of primary patency [short-term: odds ratio (OR) 3.21, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.44-4.24; long-term: OR 2.47, 95% CI 1.93-3.16], lower TLR (short-term: OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.22-0.49; long-term: OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.29-0.60) and similar all-cause mortality risk, compared with BA. Primary stenting using BMS was associated with improved short-to-mid-term patency and TLR, but similar long-term efficacy compared with provisional stenting. Mid-term patency (OR 1.64, 95% CI 0.89-3.03) and TLR (OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.22-1.11) estimates were comparable for DES vs. BMS. Atherectomy, used independently or adjunctively, was not associated with efficacy benefits compared with drug-coated and uncoated angioplasty, or stenting approaches. Paucity and heterogeneity of data precluded pooled analysis for aortoiliac disease and QoL endpoints. CONCLUSION: Certain devices may provide benefits in femoropopliteal disease, but comparative data in aortoiliac arteries is lacking. Gaps in evidence quantity and quality impede identification of the optimal endovascular approach to IC.

Prognostic models in COVID-19 infection that predict severity: a systematic review.

Current evidence on COVID-19 prognostic models is inconsistent and clinical applicability remains controversial. We performed a systematic review to summarize and critically appraise the available studies that have developed, assessed and/or validated prognostic models of COVID-19 predicting health outcomes. We searched six bibliographic databases to identify published articles that investigated univariable and multivariable prognostic models predicting adverse outcomes in adult COVID-19 patients, including intensive care unit (ICU) admission, intubation, high-flow nasal therapy (HFNT), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and mortality. We identified and assessed 314 eligible articles from more than 40 countries, with 152 of these studies presenting mortality, 66 progression to severe or critical illness, 35 mortality and ICU admission combined, 17 ICU admission only, while the remaining 44 studies reported prediction models for mechanical ventilation (MV) or a combination of multiple outcomes. The sample size of included studies varied from 11 to 7,704,171 participants, with a mean age ranging from 18 to 93 years. There were 353 prognostic models investigated, with area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.44 to 0.99. A great proportion of studies (61.5%, 193 out of 314) performed internal or external validation or replication. In 312 (99.4%) studies, prognostic models were reported to be at high risk of bias due to uncertainties and challenges surrounding methodological rigor, sampling, handling of missing data, failure to deal with overfitting and heterogeneous definitions of COVID-19 and severity outcomes. While several clinical prognostic models for COVID-19 have been described in the literature, they are limited in generalizability and/or applicability due to deficiencies in addressing fundamental statistical and methodological concerns. Future large, multi-centric and well-designed prognostic prospective studies are needed to clarify remaining uncertainties.

Should ChatGPT Have Some Applicability in the Management of Emergency Dental Care for Emigrant Adults and Children?

How to cite this article: Veseli E, Tovani-Palone MR, Veseli A, et al. Should ChatGPT Have Some Applicability in the Management of Emergency Dental Care for Emigrant Adults and Children? J Contemp Dent Pract 2023;24(11):819-820. Keywords: Artificial intelligence, Dental care, Dentistry, Emigrants and immigrants, Public health.

Buckwheat and Cardiometabolic Health: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Buckwheat (BW) is suggested to have beneficial effects, but evidence on how it affects cardiometabolic health (CMH) is not yet established. We aimed to assess the effects of BW and/or its related bioactive compounds on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk markers in adults. Five databases were searched for eligible studies. Observational prospective studies, nonrandomized or randomized trials were considered if they assessed BW, rutin or quercetin-3-glucoside intake and CVD risk markers. We adhered to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines for reporting. We selected 16 human studies based on 831 subjects with mild metabolic disturbances, such as hypercholesterolemia, diabetes and/or overweight. Eight studies, investigating primarily grain components, were included in the meta-analyses (n = 464). High study heterogeneity was present across most of our analyses. Weighted mean difference (WMD) for subjects receiving BW supplementation, compared to controls, were - 0.14 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.30; 0.02) for total cholesterol (TC), -0.03 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.22; 0.16) for LDL cholesterol, -0.14 kg (95% CI: -1.50; 1.22) for body weight, -0.04 mmol/L (95% CI: - 0.09;0.02) for HDL cholesterol, -0.02 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.15; 0.11) for triglycerides and -0.18 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.36; 0.003) for glucose. Most of the studies (66.7%) had concerns of risk of bias. Studies investigating other CVD markers were scarce and with inconsistent findings, where available. Evidence on how BW affects CMH is limited. However, the available literature indicates that BW supplementation in mild dyslipidaemia and type 2 diabetes may provide some benefit in lowering TC and glucose, albeit non-significant. Our work highlights the need for more rigorous trials, with better methodological rigor to clarify remaining uncertainties on potential effects of BW on CMH and its utility in clinical nutrition practice.

Risk Prediction Models of Natural Menopause Onset: A Systematic Review.

CONTEXT: Predicting the onset of menopause is important for family planning and to ensure prompt intervention in women at risk of developing menopause-related diseases. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to summarize risk prediction models of natural menopause onset and their performance. METHODS: Five bibliographic databases were searched up to March 2022. We included prospective studies on perimenopausal women or women in menopausal transition that reported either a univariable or multivariable model for risk prediction of natural menopause onset. Two authors independently extracted data according to the CHARMS (critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies) checklist. Risk of bias was assessed using a prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). RESULTS: Of 8132 references identified, we included 14 articles based on 8 unique studies comprising 9588 women (mainly Caucasian) and 3289 natural menopause events. All included studies used onset of natural menopause (ONM) as outcome, while 4 studies also predicted early ONM. Overall, there were 180 risk prediction models investigated, with age, anti-Müllerian hormone, and follicle-stimulating hormone being the most investigated predictors. Estimated C-statistic for the prediction models ranged from 0.62 to 0.95. Although all studies were rated at high risk of bias mainly due to the methodological concerns related to the statistical analysis, their applicability was satisfactory. CONCLUSION: Predictive performance and generalizability of current prediction models on ONM is limited given that these models were generated from studies at high risk of bias and from specific populations/ethnicities. Although in certain settings such models may be useful, efforts to improve their performance are needed as use becomes more widespread.

Effect of oat supplementation interventions on cardiovascular disease risk markers: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PURPOSE: Oat supplementation interventions (OSIs) may have a beneficial effect on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, dietary background can modulate such effect. This systematic review assesses the effects of OSIs on CVD risk markers among adults, accounting for different dietary backgrounds or control arms. METHODS: We included randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that assessed the effect of oat, oat beta-glucan-rich extracts or avenanthramides on CVD risk markers. RESULTS: Seventy-four RCTs, including 4937 predominantly hypercholesterolemic, obese subjects, with mild metabolic disturbances, were included in the systematic review. Of these, 59 RCTs contributed to the meta-analyses. Subjects receiving an OSI, compared to control arms without oats, had improved levels of total cholesterol (TC) [weighted mean difference and (95% CI) - 0.42 mmol/L, (- 0.61; - 0.22)], LDL cholesterol [- 0.29 mmol/L, (- 0.37; - 0.20)], glucose [- 0.25 nmol/L, (- 0.36; - 0.14)], body mass index [- 0.13 kg/m2, (- 0.26; - 0.01)], weight [- 0.94 kg, (- 1.84: - 0.05)], and waist circumference [- 1.06 cm, (- 1.85; - 0.27)]. RCTs on inflammation and/or oxidative stress markers were scarce and with inconsistent findings. RCTs comparing an OSI to heterogeneous interventions (e.g., wheat, eggs, rice, etc.), showed lowered levels of glycated haemoglobin, diastolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol and apolipoprotein B. The majority of included RCTs (81.1%) had some concerns for risk of bias. CONCLUSION: Dietary OSIs resulted in lowered levels of blood lipids and improvements in anthropometric parameters among participants with predominantly mild metabolic disturbances, regardless of dietary background or control. Further high-quality trials are warranted to establish the role of OSIs on blood pressure, glucose homeostasis and inflammation markers.