Survival in commercially insured multiple sclerosis patients and comparator subjects in the U.S.

OBJECTIVE: Compare survival in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) from a U.S. commercial health insurance database with a matched cohort of non-MS subjects. METHODS: 30,402 MS patients and 89,818 non-MS subjects (comparators) in the OptumInsight Research (OIR) database from 1996 to 2009 were included. An MS diagnosis required at least 3 consecutive months of database reporting, with two or more ICD-9 codes of 340 at least 30 days apart, or the combination of 1 ICD-9-340 code and at least 1 MS disease-modifying treatment (DMT) code. Comparators required the absence of ICD-9-340 and DMT codes throughout database reporting. Up to three comparators were matched to each patient for: age in the year of the first relevant code (index year - at least 3 months of reporting in that year were required); sex; region of residence in the index year. Deaths were ascertained from the National Death Index and the Social Security Administration Death Master File. Subjects not identified as deceased were assumed to be alive through the end of 2009. RESULTS: Annual mortality rates were 899/100,000 among MS patients and 446/100,000 among comparators. Standardized mortality ratios compared to the U.S. population were 1.70 and 0.80, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis yielded a median survival from birth that was 6 years lower among MS patients than among comparators. CONCLUSIONS: The results show, for the first time in a U.S. population, a survival disadvantage for contemporary MS patients compared to non-MS subjects from the same healthcare system. The 6-year decrement in lifespan parallels a recent report from British Columbia.

Signal generation and clarification: use of case-control data.

Case-control surveillance systems are useful for 'signal' generation, i.e., signaling potential previously unidentified adverse effects of drugs. Two systems currently in operation, the Slone Epidemiology Unit's Case-Control Surveillance and the Birth Defects Study, have monitored drug effects since 1976. With extensive information on the diagnoses and covariates, the systems have the capacity to carry out in-depth analyses in which the outcome measure is more specifically defined and in which confounding is controlled, thus reducing the possibility of false alarms.

Acetylsalicylic acid and other salicylates in relation to Stevens-Johnson syndrome and toxic epidermal necrolysis.

AIMS: Various nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs are known to increase the risk of Stevens-Johnson syndrome and toxic epidermal necrolysis. The relationship between salicylate treatment and these conditions is not known. METHODS: A case-control study was conducted in four countries in Europe from 1989 to 1995. RESULTS: Among 373 cases and 1720 controls, the multivariate relative risk estimate for any salicylate use in the previous week was 1.3 (95% confidence interval, 0.8-2.2); no statistically significant elevations were observed for single ingredient preparations or for salicylate-containing combination products. CONCLUSIONS: Acetylsalicylic acid and other salicylates are not associated with a measurable increase in the risk of these rare but severe reactions.

Epidemiological assessment of drug-induced disease.

Adverse reactions are a potential concern for physicians when they prescribe or recommend drugs. Epidemiological principles, when combined with clinical judgment, can be of help in this situation, starting with an appreciation of the strengths and weaknesses of different sources of information on adverse reactions--clinical trials, case reports, and formal epidemiological studies. The latter studies generally provide the most comprehensive information on the risks of serious adverse drug reactions. An understanding of the different types of risk estimates, relative and absolute, is also needed--we stress the value of the absolute risk as the best measure of the impact of an adverse reaction. Rare serious reactions, although striking, have little impact on individual risk, whereas more common reactions, even with much lower fatality rates, are more likely to lead to adverse outcomes for patients. The importance of balancing risks and benefits, taking into account all the information about an individual patient's risk profile, is also highlighted.

Estimating risks for matching factors in case-control studies.

Matching for factors such as age and sex is a convenient method for minimizing confounding in case-control studies, but it does not allow inferences about the effects of the matching factors unless case ascertainment is virtually complete and the distribution of the matching factors in the source population is known. When this is so, the effect of a particular factor can be estimated by comparing the population distribution of that factor with what is observed in the case series. Such a comparison, however, may itself be confounded by other factors that are related to both the matching factors and the disease under investigation. This article proposes a method for evaluating matching factors as risk factors, which uses information on the distribution of potential confounders in the reference series and exposure relative risk estimates to adjust the person-time proportionality constant in a Poisson regression model. The method is particularly suited to data sets in which many of the elementary matching strata contain few or no cases and/or controls. It makes use of standard analytic procedures, but requires the estimation of an additional variance-covariance component for the estimated Poisson regression coefficients. Further factors that may confound the relationship between exposure and disease are easily accommodated. The method is demonstrated in two examples: a matched case-control study of drugs in relation to the rare blood dyscrasia, agranulocytosis, that was conducted in Europe and Israel, and a case-control study of ovarian cancer in Australia.

The risk of acute major upper gastrointestinal bleeding among users of aspirin and ibuprofen at various levels of alcohol consumption.

OBJECTIVE: Major upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is the most important adverse effect of aspirin and other nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Alcoholic beverages also precipitate UGIB. This analysis was conducted to evaluate whether the deleterious effects of NSAIDs are further increased among drinkers. METHODS: An interview-based, case-control study was conducted in the U.S. and Sweden; 1224 patients hospitalized with acute major UGIB due to newly occurring peptic ulcer or gastritis were compared to 2945 neighbor controls. RESULTS: Compared with those who drank less than one drink/wk, the relative risk of acute UGIB increased with increasing alcohol consumption, rising to 2.8 among those who drank > or = 21 drinks/wk. Among current drinkers, the relative risk of acute UGIB due to the use of aspirin was raised at all levels of alcohol consumption; the estimate for aspirin taken at least every other day (regular use) at doses of > 325 mg among all current drinkers combined was 7.0; for regular use at lower doses, the corresponding estimate was 2.8, and for any occasional use, it was 2.4. All estimates were statistically significant. Data for ibuprofen were more limited, but the relative risk estimates did not appear to vary consistently with level of alcohol consumption. For regular use (all doses combined), the estimate among all drinkers combined was significantly elevated, at 2.7; occasional ibuprofen use was not associated with UGIB (1.2). There were insufficient data to evaluate other NSAIDs according to alcohol consumption. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that acute UGIB is similarly associated with the use of the two most common nonprescription NSAIDs, aspirin and ibuprofen, at all levels of alcohol consumption. As heavy alcohol intake independently increases the risk, the incidence of UGIB is highest among persons who are both heavy drinkers and users of aspirin or ibuprofen.

Regional patterns in the incidence of aplastic anemia in Thailand. The Aplastic Anemia Study Group.

The annual incidence of aplastic anemia has been determined in a rigorous and standardized epidemiologic study conducted in Thailand. A total of 374 cases were identified over a period of 3-6 years in three geographically defined and distinct regions of the country; Bangkok, Khonkaen in the northeast, and Songkla in the south. The incidence was 3.9 cases per million persons in Bangkok, 3.0 per million in Songkla, and 5.0 per million in Khonkaen. These rates are as high or higher than in any region of Europe or Israel as reported in the International Agranulocytosis and Aplastic Anemia Study, in which the methods and case definition were the same. Rates were stable over the course of the study. There were marked differences in incidence between northern and southern rural regions of Thailand, and among Bangkok suburbs. These differences, together with an unusual peak in the incidence among young people in Bangkok, suggest the possibility of occupational and environmental factors in the etiology of aplastic anemia.

Agranulocytosis in Bangkok, Thailand: a predominantly drug-induced disease with an unusually low incidence. Aplastic Anemia Study Group.

Agranulocytosis, a syndrome characterized by a marked reduction in circulating granulocytes, is strongly associated with medical drug use in Europe and the United States. Unregulated use of common pharmaceutical agents in developing countries has been suspected of causing large numbers of cases of agranulocytosis and deaths, especially among children. To elucidate the incidence and etiology of agranulocytosis in Thailand, a population-based case-control study of symptomatic agranulocytosis that resulted in hospital admission was conducted in Bangkok from 1990 to 1994. An attempt was also made to study the disease in Khonkaen (in northeastern Thailand) and Songkla (in southern Thailand), but there were insufficient cases in the latter regions, and the analysis was confined to subjects from Bangkok. In that region, the overall incidence of agranulocytosis was 0.8 per million per year; there were no deaths. As expected, the incidence was higher in females (0.9 per million), and it increased with age (4.3 per million beyond age 60). Among 25 cases and 529 controls the relative risk estimate for a combined category of all suspect drugs was 9.2 (95% confidence interval = 3.9-21), and the proportion of cases that could be attributed to drug use was 68%. For individual drugs and drug classes the data were sparse; within these limitations, the strongest association appeared to be with antithyroid drugs. One case and three controls were exposed to dipyrone, a drug known to cause agranulocytosis; with such scanty data the risk could not be evaluated. Exposure to pesticides or solvents was not associated with an increased risk. This is the first formal epidemiologic study of agranulocytosis in a developing country. As in the West, most cases are attributable to medical drug use. However, the incidence of agranulocytosis in Bangkok, and apparently, in Thailand as a whole, is unusually low, and the disease does not pose a public health risk.

Aplastic anemia in rural Thailand: its association with grain farming and agricultural pesticide exposure. Aplastic Anemia Study Group.

OBJECTIVES: A population-based case-control study was conducted to elucidate the incidence and etiology of aplastic anemia in Thailand. METHODS: Case patients and hospital control patients were enrolled in three regions from 1989 to 1994; data were collected by interview. RESULTS: Forty-six percent of 81 case patients and 19% of 295 control patients from Khonkaen were grain farmers (estimated relative risk [RR] = 2.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.4, 5.2). Sixteen percent of case patients and 6% of control patients used agricultural pesticides (estimated RR = 2.7, 95% CI = 1.1, 6.6). The association with grain farming remained among those not exposed to pesticides. In Songkla, 16% of 43 case patients and 2% of 181 control patients were grain farmers (crude RR estimate = 11, 95% CI = 3.4, 35). CONCLUSIONS: The relation of aplastic anemia to grain farming may partly explain the high incidence of aplastic anemia in Thailand.

Low drug attributability of aplastic anemia in Thailand. The Aplastic Anemia Study Group.

From 1989 to 1994, a population-based, case-control study of aplastic anemia was conducted in Thailand, including the regions of Bangkok, Khonkaen in the northeast, and Songkla in the south. An annual incidence in Bangkok of 3.7 cases per million population, about twice as high as in Western countries, has been reported. To evaluate the etiologic role of drugs, 253 subjects were compared with 1,174 hospital controls. With multivariate adjustment for confounding, a significant association was identified for exposure 2 to 6 months before admission to thiazide diuretics (relative risk estimate 7.7; 1.5 to 40). There were crude associations with sulfonamides (relative risk estimate, 7.9; P = 0.004) and mebendazole (6.3; P = 0.03) (there were insufficient data for multivariate adjustment). Excess risks for the three drugs were in the range of 9 to 12 cases per million users. There was no significant association with chloramphenicol, although the multivariate relative-risk estimate was elevated (2.7; 0.7 to 10). Other drugs that have been reported to increase the risk of aplastic anemia, such as nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and anticonvulsants, were not commonly used. There were no associations with commonly used drugs, including benzodiazepines, antihistamines, oral contraceptives, and herbal preparations. For all associated drugs, the overall etiologic fraction (the proportion of cases attributable to an exposure) was 5%, compared with 25% in Europe and Israel. Drugs are uncommon causes of aplastic anemia in Thailand, and their use does not explain the relatively high incidence of the disease in that country.

Use of household pesticides and the risk of aplastic anaemia in Thailand. The Aplastic Anemia Study Group.

BACKGROUND: Aplastic anaemia is a severe blood dyscrasia that is more common in Thailand than in Western countries. Its a etiology remains poorly understood. METHODS: A case-control study was conducted in Bangkok and two rural regions of Thailand. The effect of household pesticides was evaluated among 253 incident cases of aplastic anaemia and 1174 hospital controls. RESULTS: A total of 54% of the cases and 61% of the controls were exposed 1-6 months previously. For most individual household pesticides and for groups classified according to chemical type (organophosphates, pyrethrins, and organochlorines), the relative risk (RR) estimates approximated 1.0; upper 95% confidence limits were below 2.0 for many comparisons. A significant association was observed for exposure to combination products containing dichlorvos and propoxur, with an overall RR estimate of 1.7 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1-2.6); the estimate for regular use was 1.6 (95% CI: 0.9-2.9). CONCLUSIONS: The absence of a higher risk for the regular use of dichlorvos/propoxur reduces the credibility of the apparent association, which could well have been an artefact of multiple comparisons. We conclude that most household pesticides used in Thailand do not appear to increase the risk of aplastic anaemia.

Evaluation of case reports of aplastic anemia among patients treated with felbamate.

PURPOSE: Felbamate (FBM) is a new antiepileptic drug (AED) that is often effective in seizure disorders refractory to other treatments; its use has been greatly restricted after cases of aplastic anemia were reported. To elucidate the putative association between FBM and aplastic anemia, we made a detailed evaluation of the first 31 reports. METHODS: Hematologic review according to the criteria of the International Agranulocytosis and Aplastic Anemia Study (IAAAS) confirmed 23 cases (74%) as aplastic anemia; FBM was judged to be the only plausible cause for three; confounding (mostly by other drugs) was considered possible, but FBM remained the most likely cause for 11; and there was at least one other plausible cause for 9. RESULTS: Using a denominator from sales data of 110,000 persons exposed and a numerator of the cases for which FBM was considered the only plausible cause, we established a lower limit of incidence of 27 cases of aplastic anemia per million users as compared with the general population rate of 2.0 per million per year. With all confirmed cases used as the numerator, the upper limit of incidence was 209 per million. The 'most probable" incidence was estimated to be 127 per million. CONCLUSIONS: Intensive, systematic investigation can maximize the utility of case reports for assessing risks of newly released drugs. The present evaluation confirmed an association between FBM and aplastic anemia; however, confounding was significant for most cases and there was a tenfold range in the "best case" and "worst case" incidence estimates among users.

Risk of aspirin-associated major upper-gastrointestinal bleeding with enteric-coated or buffered product.

BACKGROUND: Aspirin products are known to cause irritation and injury to the gastric mucosa. The belief that enteric-coated and buffered varieties are less likely to occasion major upper-gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) than plain aspirin was tested in data from a multicentre case-control study. METHODS: 550 incident cases of UGIB admitted to hospital with melaena or haematemesis and confirmed by endoscopy, and 1202 controls identified from population census lists, were interviewed about use of aspirin and other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) during the 7 days before the onset of bleeding (cases) or interview (controls). Relative risks of UGIB for each type of aspirin used regularly (at least every other day) were calculated overall, and according to dose, by multiple logistic regression, with control for age, sex, marital status, date, education, cigarette smoking, alcohol use, and use of NSAIDs. FINDINGS: The relative risks of UGIB for plain, enteric-coated, and buffered aspirin at average daily doses of 325 mg or less were 2.6, 2.7, and 3.1, respectively. At doses greater than 325 mg, the relative risk was 5.8 for plain and 7.0 for buffered aspirin; there were insufficient data to evaluate enteric-coated aspirin at this dose level. There were no important differences in risk attributable to the three aspirin forms according to bleeding site (gastric vs duodenal), or when users of NSAIDs were excluded. INTERPRETATION: Use of low doses of enteric-coated or buffered aspirin carries a three-fold increase in the risk of major UGIB. The assumption that these formulations are less harmful than plain aspirin may be mistaken.

Drugs in the aetiology of agranulocytosis and aplastic anaemia.

Agranulocytosis and aplastic anaemia are rare but serious conditions known to be caused by numerous drugs. Most of what is known or suspected about the aetiology is based on case reports, with only a few formal epidemiological studies that provide quantitative estimates of risk. Updated results have been obtained from a combined analysis of data from 3 case-control studies that used similar methods: the International Agranulocytosis and Aplastic Anemia Study (IAAAS), conducted in Israel and Europe; a study conducted in the northeast US; and a study conducted in Thailand. Totals of 362 cases of agranulocytosis, 454 cases of aplastic anaemia and 6458 controls were included in the analyses. The IAAAS and Thai study were population-based, providing estimates of the incidence of the 2 dyscrasias. The overall annual incidence of agranulocytosis in the ambulatory population was 3.4/10(6) in the IAAAS and 0.8/10(6) in Thailand; by contrast the incidence of aplastic anaemia was 2.0/10(6) in the IAAAS and 4.1/10(6) in Thailand. A total of 21 compounds were significantly associated with an increased risk of agranulocytosis in the IAAAS and US studies. Excess risks ranged from 0.06 to 13 cases/10(6) users/wk; the most strongly associated drugs were procainamide, anti-thyroid drugs and sulphasalazine. An association with drugs that had previously been suspected was also seen in Thailand. The overall aetiologic fractions of agranulocytosis due to drug use were 62% in the IAAAS, 72% in the US and 70% in Thailand. Eleven drugs were significantly associated with an increased risk of aplastic anaemia, with excess risks ranging from 1.4 to 60 cases/10(6) users in a 5-month period. The most strongly associated drugs were penicillamine, gold and carbamazepine. Aetiologic fractions were 27% in the IAAAS, 17% in the US and 2% in Thailand, which paralleled the prevalence of use of associated drugs in the 3 populations. The present results confirm that agranulocytosis is largely a drug-induced disease, with similar proportions accounted for in 3 disparate geographic regions. By contrast, although many of the expected associations were observed for aplastic anaemia, most of the aetiology is not explained by drugs. For all associated drugs, the excess risks are sufficiently low that blood dyscrasias should not figure prominently in the balancing of risks and benefits.

Incidence and non-drug aetiologies of aplastic anaemia in Thailand. The Thai Aplastic Anaemia Study Group.

A population-based, case-control study of aplastic anaemia has been conducted in Thailand since 1989. Up to December 1994, the overall annual incidence was 3.9/10(6) in Bangkok, 5.0/10(6) in Khonkaen and 3.0/10(6) in Songkla. In Bangkok, the incidence peaked in 2 age groups (at 15-24 yr and > or = 60 yr), whereas in Khonkaen and Songkla there was a consistent increase in incidence with increasing age. The results of case-control analyses for non-drug risk factors indicate a strong inverse association with socio-economic status present in all 3 areas; a strong association with grain farming in the 2 rural areas that does not appear to be explained by pesticides; an association with occupational exposure to solvents in Bangkok; and a positive association with hepatitis A seropositivity.

An epidemiological study of aplastic anaemia: relationship of drug exposures to clinical features and outcome.

Two hypotheses were examined in the combined data from 3 case-control studies of aplastic anaemia, conducted in Thailand, Europe/Israel and the US: 1. Cases exposed to drugs associated with a significantly increased risk of aplastic anaemia are more likely to present with thrombocytopenia (e.g. petechiae, easy bruising); and 2. cases exposed to these drugs are more likely to recover quickly than non-exposed cases. After excluding all cases who lacked information on timing of symptoms and those whose symptoms began > or = 180 d before hospital admission, 392 cases remained for analysis. A total of 51 (13%) had been exposed to one of the significantly associated drugs; the remaining 341 (87%) had not. Among the former, 31% reported thrombocytopenia either before or at the same time as non-bleeding symptoms (e.g. pallor, fatigue); the corresponding proportion among the non-exposed was 53%. Data on time to recovery (return of the 3 blood cell lines to normal levels) were not available for the Thai cases; among the others, the median time to recovery for the non-fatal cases was 7 and 6 months in the 29 exposed and the 83 non-exposed cases, respectively. The data do not support either hypothesis: the two groups of aplastic anaemia cases appeared to be similar in both the presenting symptoms and the recovery time.

An association of aplastic anaemia in Thailand with low socioeconomic status. Aplastic Anemia Study Group.

The relationship of socioeconomic status to the risk of aplastic anaemia was evaluated in a case-control study conducted in Bangkok and two rural regions of Thailand (Khonkaen and Songkla). Among 152 cases and 921 controls there were significant trends of increasing risk with decreasing years of education (P = 0.01) and total household income (P = 0.0001), after control for confounding. The relative risk estimate for those with monthly incomes of < 1500 baht (about $60 U.S.) was 3.9 (95% confidence interval 2.1-7.3) compared to those with monthly incomes of at least 5000 baht (about $200). The pattern of increasing risk with decreasing income was observed in all three regions, with significant trends in Bangkok (P = 0.004) and Khonkaen (P = 0.003). This finding may partly explain the high incidence of aplastic anaemia in Thailand. Low socioeconomic status may be a surrogate for one or more environmental factors that could cause aplastic anaemia, such as infectious pathogens or toxic exposures.