A modeling study on the oceanic dispersion and sedimentation of radionuclides off the coast of Fukushima.

We developed a three-dimensional prognostic oceanic dispersion model that accounted for the phase transfer of radionuclides between seawater, suspended particles, and seabed sediments with multiscale grain sizes. A detailed hindcast of 137Cs in the seabed sediment off the Fukushima coast was conducted to investigate the transfer mechanism of dissolved 137Cs derived from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP1) accident toward the seabed sediment. Extensive model-data comparison demonstrated that the model could satisfactorily reproduce the oceanic structure and 137Cs concentrations in the seawater and seabed sediment. The model successfully reproduced the major features of the observed spatial variation of the 137Cs activities in the sediment, which represented more than 90% of the sedimentary radiocesium existing in the coastal area off Fukushima several months after the accident. Shear stress associated with the resuspension of the seabed sediment was induced by waves near the shore and by current velocity offshore of the study area. The adsorption of 137Cs on the seabed sediment differed depending on the particle size, with adsorption on clay being the most substantial. The distribution of 137Cs in the sediment off the Fukushima coast was formed mainly owing to adsorption from the dissolved phase by June 2011, when the impact of the direct oceanic 137Cs release from FNPP1 was remarkable. After June 2011, seabed sediment became a source of 137Cs released to the seawater owing to resuspension with and desorption from the sediment.

Validity of the source term for the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station accident estimated using local-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations to reproduce the large-scale atmospheric dispersion of 137Cs.

The source term of 137Cs from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident was estimated from the results of local-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations and measurements. To confirm the source term's validity for reproducing the large-scale atmospheric dispersion of 137Cs, this study conducted hemispheric-scale atmospheric and oceanic dispersion simulations. In the dispersion simulations, the atmospheric-dispersion database system Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information (WSPEEDI)-DB and oceanic dispersion model SEA-GEARN-FDM that were developed by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency were used. Compared with the air concentrations of 137Cs measured by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, overall, the WSPEEDI-DB simulations well reproduced the measurements, whereas the simulation results partly overestimated some measurements. Furthermore, the validity of the deposition of 137Cs by WSPEEDI-DB was investigated using SEA-GEARN-FDM and concentrations of 137Cs in seawater sampled from the North Pacific. Seawater concentrations of 137Cs by the oceanic dispersion simulation, in which the deposition flux of 137Cs by WSPEEDI-DB was used as input from the atmosphere to oceans, were statistically consistent to the measurement. However, the simulated seawater concentrations of 137Cs were underestimated regionally in the North Pacific. Both the overestimation of air concentrations and underestimation of seawater concentrations could be attributed to the less amounts of 137Cs deposition by less precipitation over the North Pacific. The overestimation and underestimation could be improved without contradiction between the air and seawater concentrations of 137Cs using more realistic precipitation in atmospheric dispersion simulations. This shows that the source term validated in this study could reproduce the spatiotemporal distribution of 137Cs from the FDNPS accident in both local and large-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations.

Oceanic dispersion of Fukushima-derived Cs-137 simulated by multiple oceanic general circulation models.

To understand the concentration and amount of Fukushima-derived Cs-137 in the ocean, this study simulated the oceanic dispersion of Cs-137 by atmospheric and oceanic dispersion simulations. The oceanic dispersion simulations were carried out with an oceanic dispersion model and multiple oceanic general circulation models. The Cs-137 concentrations were sensitive to ocean currents in the coastal, offshore, and open oceans. The mean Cs-137 concentrations of the multiple models relatively well agreed with the observed concentrations in the coastal and offshore oceans during the first few months after the Fukushima disaster, and in the open ocean during the first year after the disaster. The Cs-137 amounts were quantified in the coastal, offshore, and open oceans during the first year after the disaster. It was suggested that Cs-137 actively dispersed from the coastal and offshore oceans to the open ocean, and from the surface layer to the deeper layers in the North Pacific.

Numerical simulation on the long-term variation of radioactive cesium concentration in the North Pacific due to the Fukushima disaster.

Numerical simulations on oceanic (134)Cs and (137)Cs dispersions were intensively conducted in order to assess an effect of the radioactive cesium on the North Pacific environment with a focus on the long-term variation of the radioactive cesium concentration after the Fukushima disaster that occurred in March 2011. The amounts of (134)Cs and (137)Cs released into the ocean were estimated using oceanic monitoring data, whereas the atmospheric deposition was calculated through atmospheric dispersion simulations. The highly accurate ocean current reanalyzed through a three-dimensional variational data assimilation enabled us to clarify the time series of the (134)Cs and (137)Cs concentrations in the North Pacific. It was suggested that the main radioactive cesium cloud due to the direct oceanic release reached the central part of the North Pacific, crossing 170°W one year after the Fukushima disaster. The radioactive cesium was efficiently diluted by meso-scale eddies in the Kuroshio Extension region and its concentration in the surface, intermediate, and deep layers had already been reduced to the pre-Fukushima background value in the wide area within the North Pacific 2.5 years after the Fukushima disaster.