Development of interpretable machine learning models to predict in-hospital prognosis of acute heart failure patients.

AIMS: In recent years, there has been remarkable development in machine learning (ML) models, showing a trend towards high prediction performance. ML models with high prediction performance often become structurally complex and are frequently perceived as black boxes, hindering intuitive interpretation of the prediction results. We aimed to develop ML models with high prediction performance, interpretability, and superior risk stratification to predict in-hospital mortality and worsening heart failure (WHF) in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, which enrolled 4056 patients with AHF, we developed prediction models for in-hospital mortality and WHF using information obtained on the first day of admission (demographics, physical examination, blood test results, etc.). After excluding 16 patients who died on the first or second day of admission, the original dataset (n = 4040) was split 4:1 into training (n = 3232) and test datasets (n = 808). Based on the training dataset, we developed three types of prediction models: (i) the classification and regression trees (CART) model; (ii) the random forest (RF) model; and (iii) the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model. The performance of each model was evaluated using the test dataset, based on metrics including sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Brier score, and calibration slope. For the complex structure of the XGBoost model, we performed SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis, classifying patients into interpretable clusters. In the original dataset, the proportion of females was 44.8% (1809/4040), and the average age was 77.9 ± 12.0. The in-hospital mortality rate was 6.3% (255/4040) and the WHF rate was 22.3% (900/4040) in the total study population. In the in-hospital mortality prediction, the AUC for the XGBoost model was 0.816 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.815-0.818], surpassing the AUC values for the CART model (0.683, 95% CI: 0.680-0.685) and the RF model (0.755, 95% CI: 0.753-0.757). Similarly, in the WHF prediction, the AUC for the XGBoost model was 0.766 (95% CI: 0.765-0.768), outperforming the AUC values for the CART model (0.688, 95% CI: 0.686-0.689) and the RF model (0.713, 95% CI: 0.711-0.714). In the XGBoost model, interpretable clusters were formed, and the rates of in-hospital mortality and WHF were similar among each cluster in both the training and test datasets. CONCLUSIONS: The XGBoost models with SHAP analysis provide high prediction performance, interpretability, and reproducible risk stratification for in-hospital mortality and WHF for patients with AHF.

Effectiveness and safety of morphine administration for refractory dyspnoea among hospitalised patients with advanced heart failure: the Morphine-HF study.

OBJECTIVES: Morphine is effective in alleviating dyspnoea in patients with cancer. We aimed to investigate the effectiveness and safety of morphine administration for refractory dyspnoea in patients with advanced heart failure (HF). METHODS: We conducted a multicentre, prospective, observational study of hospitalised patients with advanced HF in whom morphine was administered for refractory dyspnoea. Morphine effectiveness was evaluated by dyspnoea intensity changes, assessed regularly by both a quantitative subjective scale (Visual Analogue Scale (VAS; graded from 0 to 100 mm)) and an objective scale (Support Team Assessment Schedule-Japanese (STAS-J; graded from 0 to 4 points)). Safety was assessed by vital sign changes and new-onset severe adverse events, including nausea, vomiting, constipation and delirium based on the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events. RESULTS: From 15 Japanese institutions between September 2020 and August 2022, we included 28 hospitalised patients with advanced HF in whom morphine was administered (mean age: 83.8±8.7 years, male: 15 (54%), New York Heart Association class IV: 26 (93%) and mean left ventricular ejection fraction: 38%±19%). Both VAS and STAS-J significantly improved from baseline to day 1 (VAS: 67±26 to 50±31 mm; p=0.02 and STAS-J: 3.3±0.8 to 2.6±1.1 points; p=0.006, respectively), and thereafter the improvements sustained through to day 7. After morphine administration, vital signs including blood pressure, pulse rate and oxygen saturation did not change, and no new-onset severe adverse events occurred through to day 7. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggested acceptable effectiveness and safety for morphine administration in treating refractory dyspnoea in hospitalised patients with advanced HF.

The characteristics and outcomes in patients with acute heart failure who used tolvaptan: from KCHF registry.

AIMS: The use of tolvaptan is increasing in clinical practice in Japan. However, the characteristics of patients who used tolvaptan and the timing of its use in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) are not fully elucidated. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among consecutive 4056 patients in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, we analysed 3802 patients after excluding patients on dialysis, prior or unknown tolvaptan use at admission, and unknown timing of tolvaptan use, and we divided them into two groups: tolvaptan use (N = 773) and no tolvaptan use (N = 3029). The prevalence of tolvaptan use varied widely from 48.7% to 0% across the participating centres. Factors independently associated with tolvaptan use were diabetes, poor medical adherence, oedema, pleural effusion, hyponatraemia, estimated glomerular filtration rate < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 , moderate/severe tricuspid regurgitation, dobutamine infusion within 24 h, and additional inotropes infusion beyond 24 h after admission. The mortality rate at 90 days after admission was significantly higher in the tolvaptan use group than in the no tolvaptan use group (14.3% vs. 8.6%, P = 0.049). However, after adjustment, the excess mortality risk of tolvaptan use relative to no tolvaptan use was no longer significant (hazard ratio = 1.53, 95% confidence interval = 0.77-3.02, P = 0.22). Patients with tolvaptan use had a longer hospital stay [median (interquartile range): 22 (15-34) days vs. 15 (11-21) days, P < 0.0001] and a higher prevalence of worsening renal failure (47.0% vs. 31.8%, P < 0.0001) and worsening heart failure (24.8% vs. 14.4%, P < 0.0001) than those without. CONCLUSIONS: AHF patients with tolvaptan use had more congestive status with poorer in-hospital outcomes and higher short-term mortality than those without tolvaptan use. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02334891 (NCT02334891) and https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000017241 (UMIN000015238).

COVID-19 fulminant myocarditis recovered with veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and Impella CP.

A 38-year-old man without a history of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination presented with dyspnea and fever. Polymerase chain reaction nasopharyngeal swab for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 was positive. Electrocardiogram showed diffuse ST-segment elevation, and chest radiography showed mild pulmonary congestion. The left ventricular (LV) function was markedly impaired. Vital signs were unstable, and serum lactate level was elevated. The patient was diagnosed with cardiogenic shock due to COVID-19 fulminant myocarditis and received veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) and Impella CP (Abiomed, Inc., Danvers, MA, USA). Remdesivir and intravenous immunoglobulin were also administered. Corticosteroids were not administered because of the absence of pneumonia. On admission, endomyocardial biopsy showed a small direct inflammatory infiltrate of the myocardium. During mechanical support, the cardiac function improved, the patient was weaned off VA-ECMO on day 6, and Impella CP on day 7. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging implied recent myocardial damage. The patient was discharged on day 30, and the LV function fully recovered. Since the treatment and prognosis of COVID-19 fulminant myocarditis remain unclear, we report the course of COVID-19 fulminant myocarditis with favorable outcomes. Mechanical circulatory support might be an important factor in determining the prognosis of COVID-19 fulminant myocarditis. Learning objective: Coronavirus disease 2019 fulminant myocarditis sometimes requires mechanical circulatory support. The prognosis and treatment have not yet been adequately established. The prognosis is favorable if adequate hemodynamic support is provided.

Weight loss during follow-up in patients with acute heart failure: From the KCHF registry.

BACKGROUNDS: The prognostic implication of weight loss after discharge from acute heart failure (AHF) remains unclear. We sought to investigate the association of weight loss between discharge and 6-month visit with subsequent clinical outcomes in patients with AHF. METHODS: We analyzed 686 patients with AHF in the prospective longitudinal follow-up study derived from the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, and divided them into 2 groups based on the weight loss at 6-month index visit. We defined the weight loss as ≥ 5% decrease in body weight from discharge to 6-month index visit. RESULTS: There were 90 patients (13.1%) with a weight loss at 6-month visit. Patients in the weight loss group compared with those in the no weight loss group had higher body weight at discharge and lower body weight at 6-mont visit. Patients in the weight loss group had a lower systolic blood pressure, higher brain-type natriuretic peptide, lower serum albumin, lower hemoglobin, higher prevalence of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction at 6-month visit, and a lower prescription rate of inhibitors of renin-angiotensin system than those in the no weight loss group. The cumulative 6-month incidence of all-cause death was significantly higher in the weight loss group than in the no weight loss group (14.2% and 4.3%, log-rank P<0.001). The excess adjusted risk of the weight loss group relative to the no weight loss group remained significant for all-cause death (HR 2.39, 95%CI 1.01-5.65, P = 0.048). CONCLUSION: Body weight loss of ≥5% at 6-month visit after discharge was associated with subsequent all-cause death in patients with AHF.

Association between changes in loop diuretic dose and outcomes in acute heart failure.

AIMS: Little is known about the association between the starting of or dose changes in loop diuretics during acute heart failure (AHF) hospitalization and post-discharge outcomes. We investigated the clinical impact of starting loop diuretics and changing the loop diuretics dose during hospitalization on post-discharge outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: From the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, 3665 consecutive patients hospitalized for HF and discharged alive were included in this study. We analysed 1906 patients without loop diuretics on admission and were discharged alive and 1759 patients who received loop diuretics on admission and were discharged alive. The primary outcome measure was all-cause death. Of the 1906 patients without loop diuretics on admission, 1366 (71.7%) patients started loop diuretics during the index AHF hospitalization. Starting loop diuretics was not associated with lower post-discharge mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68-1.25]. Of the 1759 patients who received loop diuretics on admission, loop diuretic dose was decreased in 23.8%, unchanged in 44.6%, and increased in 31.6% of the patients. Changes in the dose at discharge compared with no change in dose were not associated with lower risk of post-discharge mortality (decrease relative to no change: adjusted HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.76-1.28; increase relative to no change: adjusted HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.78-1.27). Compared with no loop diuretics at discharge, a loop diuretics dose of ≥80 mg at discharge was associated with higher post-discharge mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AHF, we found no association between the starting of loop diuretics and post-discharge outcomes and between dose changes and post-discharge outcomes.

Tricuspid regurgitation in elderly patients with acute heart failure: insights from the KCHF registry.

AIMS: Several studies demonstrated that tricuspid regurgitation (TR) is associated with poor clinical outcomes. However, data on patients with TR who experienced acute heart failure (AHF) remains scarce. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the association between TR and clinical outcomes in patients admitted with AHF, using a large-scale Japanese AHF registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: The current study population consisted of 3735 hospitalized patients due to AHF in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure (KCHF) registry. TR grades were assessed according to the routine clinical practice at each participating centre. We compared the baseline characteristics and outcomes according to the severity of TR. The primary outcome was all-cause death. The secondary outcome was hospitalization for heart failure (HF). The median age of the entire study population was 80 (interquartile range: 72-86) years. One thousand two hundred five patients (32.3%) had no TR, while mild, moderate, and severe TR was found in 1537 patients (41.2%), 776 patients (20.8%), and 217 patients (5.8%), respectively. Pulmonary hypertension, significant mitral regurgitation, and atrial fibrillation/flutter were strongly associated with the development of moderate/severe of TR, while left ventricular ejection fraction <50% was inversely associated with it. Among 993 patients with moderate/severe TR, the number of patients who underwent surgical intervention for TR within 1 year was only 13 (1.3%). The median follow-up duration was 475 (interquartile range: 365-653) days with 94.0% follow-up at 1 year. As the TR severity increased, the cumulative 1 year incidence of all-cause death and HF admission proportionally increased ([14.8%, 20.3%, 23.4%, 27.0%] and [18.9%, 23.0%, 28.5%, 28.4%] in no, mild, moderate, and severe TR, respectively). Compared with no TR, the adjusted risks of patients with mild, moderate, and severe TR were significant for all-cause death (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.20 [1.00-1.43], P = 0.0498, 1.32 [1.07-1.62], P = 0.009, and 1.35 [1.00-1.83], P = 0.049, respectively), while those were not significant for hospitalization for HF (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.16 [0.97-1.38], P = 0.10, 1.19 [0.96-1.46], P = 0.11, and 1.20 [0.87-1.65], P = 0.27, respectively). The higher adjusted HRs of all the TR grades relative to no TR were significant for all-cause death in patients aged <80 years, but not in patients aged ≥80 years with significant interaction. CONCLUSIONS: In a large Japanese AHF population, the grades of TR could successfully stratify the risk of all-cause death. However, the association of TR with mortality was only modest and attenuated in patients aged 80 or more. Further research is warranted to evaluate how to follow up and manage TR in this elderly population.

Prognostic Value of the Severity of Clinical Congestion in Patients Hospitalized for Decompensated Heart Failure: Findings From the Japanese KCHF Registry.

BACKGROUND: Congestion is a leading cause of hospitalization and a major therapeutic target in patients with heart failure (HF). Clinical practice in Japan is characterized by a long hospital stay, which facilitates more extensive decongestion during hospitalization. We herein examined the time course and prognostic impact of clinical congestion in a large contemporary Japanese cohort of HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Peripheral edema, jugular venous pressure, and orthopnea were graded on a standardized 4-point scale (0-3) in 3787 hospitalized patients in a Japanese cohort of HF. Composite Congestion Scores (CCS) on admission and at discharge were calculated by summing individual scores. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death or HF hospitalization. The median admission CCS was 4 (interquartile range, 3-6). Overall, 255 patients died during the median hospitalization length of 16 days, and 1395 died or were hospitalized for HF over a median postdischarge follow-up of 396 days. The cumulative 1-year incidence of the primary outcome increased at higher tertiles of congestion on admission (32.5%, 39.3%, and 41.0% in the mild [CCS ≤3], moderate [CCS = 4 or 5], and severe [CCS ≥6] congestion groups, respectively, log-rank P < .001). The adjusted hazard ratios of moderate and severe congestion relative to mild congestion were 1.205 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.065-1.365; P = .003) and 1.247 (95% CI, 1.103-1.410; P < .001), respectively. Among 3445 patients discharged alive, 85% had CCS of 0 (complete decongestion) and 15% had a CCS of 1 or more (residual congestion) at discharge. Although residual congestion predicted a risk of postdischarge death or HF hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.314 [1.145-1.509]; P < .001), the admission CCS correlated with the risk of postdischarge death or HF hospitalization, even in the complete decongestion group. No correlation was observed for postdischarge death or HF hospitalization between residual congestion at discharge and admission CCS (P for the interaction = .316). CONCLUSIONS: In total, 85% of patients were discharged with complete decongestion in Japanese clinical practice. Clinical congestion, on admission and at discharge, was of prognostic value. The severity of congestion on admission was predictive of adverse outcomes, even in the absence of residual congestion. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02334891 (NCT02334891) https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000017241 (UMIN000015238).

Relationship between atrial fibrillation and a liver fibrogenesis marker in patients with acute heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Hemodynamic disturbance in heart failure (HF) induces extra-cardiac organ injury. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in patients with HF. The relationship between AF and organ injury in HF remains unclear. We investigated the relationship between AF and the liver fibrosis marker, type IV collagen 7S (P4NP 7S) in patients with HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: From a pooled dataset of 3 observational cohorts of hospitalized HF, 720 patients in whom P4NP 7S was measured before discharge were included. Median P4NP 7S were 5.1, 5.3, and 6.2 ng/mL in the sinus rhythm (SR) (n = 368), paroxysmal AF (n = 67), and persistent AF (n = 285) groups, respectively (P < 0.001). In the multiple linear regression analysis, the significant association with P4NP 7S was found for persistent AF (P < 0.001). The cumulative 1-year incidence of the primary composite endpoint of cardiac death and HF hospitalization were 27.6, 24.1, and 34.5% in the SR, paroxysmal AF, and persistent AF groups, respectively (Log-rank P = 0.07) and 25.3 and 34.5% in the low (below median) and high P4NP 7S groups, respectively (Log-rank P = 0.005). The adjusted risks of persistent AF versus SR and high P4NP 7S versus low P4NP 7S for the primary endpoint were 1.38 (95% confidence interval 1.02-1.89) and 1.52 (1.14-2.03), respectively. When patients were divided based on a combination of AF and P4NP 7S, concomitant persistent AF and high P4NP 7S portended a dismal prognosis. CONCLUSION: AF is associated with an increase in the liver fibrosis marker. Co-presence of persistent AF and P4NP 7S may portend adverse clinical outcomes.

A comparison between hospital follow-up and collaborative follow-up in patients with acute heart failure.

AIMS: There are no previous studies focusing on collaborative follow-ups between hospitals and clinics for patients discharged after acute heart failure (AHF) in Japan. The purpose of this study was to determine the status of collaboration between hospitals and clinics for patients with AHF in Japan and to compare patient characteristics and clinical outcomes using a large Japanese observational database. METHODS AND RESULTS: Of 4056 consecutive patients hospitalized for AHF in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, we analysed 2862 patients discharged to go home, who were divided into 1674 patients (58.5%) followed up at hospitals with index hospitalization (hospital follow-up group) and 1188 (41.5%) followed up in a collaborative fashion with clinics or other general hospitals (collaborative follow-up group). The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death or heart failure (HF) hospitalization within 1 year after discharge. Previous hospitalization for HF and length of hospital stay longer than 15 days were associated with hospital follow-up. Conversely, ≥80 years of age, hypertension, and cognitive dysfunction were associated with collaborative follow-up. The cumulative 1-year incidence of the primary outcome, all cause death, and cardiovascular death were similar between the hospital and collaborative follow-up groups (31.6% vs. 29.6%, P = 0.51, 13.1% vs, 13.9%, P = 0.35, 8.4% vs. 8.2%, P = 0.96). Even after adjusting for confounders, the difference in risk for patients in the hospital follow-up group relative to those in the collaborative follow-up group remained insignificant for the primary outcome, all-cause death, and cardiovascular death (HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 0.97-1.27, P = 0.14, HR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.91-1.33, P = 0.33, HR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.87-1.05, P = 0.33). The cumulative 1-year incidence of HF hospitalization was higher in the hospital follow-up group than in the collaborative follow-up group (25.5% vs. 21.3%, P = 0.02). The risk of HF hospitalization was higher in the hospital follow-up group than in the collaborative follow-up group (HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.01-1.39, P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: In patients hospitalized for AHF, 41.5% received collaborative follow-up after discharge. The risk of HF hospitalization was higher in the hospital follow-up group than in the collaborative follow-up, although risk of the primary outcome, all-cause death, and cardiovascular death were similar between groups.

Atrial fibrillation in patients with severe aortic stenosis.

BACKGROUND: There has been no previous report evaluating the long impact of atrial fibrillation (AF) on the clinical outcomes stratified by the initial management [conservative or aortic valve replacement (AVR)] strategies of severe aortic stenosis (AS). METHODS: We analyzed 3815 patients with severe AS enrolled in the CURRENT AS registry. Patients with AF were defined as those having a history of AF when severe AS was found on the index echocardiography. The primary outcome measure was a composite of aortic valve-related death or hospitalization for heart failure. RESULTS: The cumulative 5-year incidence of the primary outcome measure was significantly higher in patients with AF than in those without AF (44.2 % versus 33.2 %, HR 1.54, 95 % CI 1.35-1.76). After adjusting for confounders, the risk of AF relative to no AF remained significant (HR 1.34, 95 % CI 1.16-1.56). The magnitude of excess adjusted risk of AF for the primary outcome measure was greater in the initial AVR stratum (N = 1197, HR 1.95, 95 % CI 1.36-2.78) than in the conservative stratum (N = 2618, HR 1.26, 95 % CI 1.08-1.47) with a significant interaction (p = 0.04). In patients with AF, there was a significant excess adjusted risk of paroxysmal AF (N = 254) relative to chronic AF (N = 528) for the primary outcome measure (HR 1.34, 95 % CI 1.01-1.78). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with severe AS, concomitant AF was independently associated with worse clinical outcomes regardless of the initial management strategies. In those patients with conservative strategy, paroxysmal AF is stronger risk factor than chronic AF.

Trends in prognosis after hospitalization for acute heart failure in Kurashiki Central hospital 2015-2018: single-center prospective study.

Recently, we have been working on enhancing the effectiveness of treatment for acute heart failure (HF) through team-based care. This study was designed to assess the benefits of this initiative by quantifying the prognostic impact on HF patients receiving treatment at our hospital. We identified 1977 consecutive HF patients (mean age 78.3 ± 11.9 years) being discharged from our hospital between February 2015 and December 2018, divided them by admission year, and tracked changes over time, with 2015 as a reference. The postdischarge clinical outcome measures were defined as a composite of all-cause death or rehospitalization for HF, all-cause death, and rehospitalization for HF. The risk of a composite of all-cause death or rehospitalization for HF was lower in 2017 (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% confidence interval: 0.57 to 0.91; p = 0.005) and 2018 (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval: 0.61 to 0.99; p = 0.045) than in 2015, and that of all-cause death was lower in 2017 (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% confidence interval: 0.53 to 0.98; p = 0.04) and 2018 (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.60; 95% confidence interval: 0.43 to 0.85; p = 0.004) than in 2015, but that of rehospitalization for HF was not significantly different through the study period. The mortality rate decreased at the end of the study period, but the rate of rehospitalization for HF did not. The benefits of team-based care were difficult to evaluate by quantification.

Insomnia in patients with acute heart failure: from the KCHF registry.

AIMS: Insomnia is a known risk factor for heart failure (HF) and a predictor of cardiac events in HF patients, but the clinical significance of insomnia in patients with acute HF (AHF) is not adequately evaluated. This study aimed to investigate the association between insomnia and subsequent clinical outcomes in patients with AHF. METHODS: From the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, consecutive 3414 patients hospitalized for HF who were discharged alive were divided into the 2 groups at discharge: insomnia group and non-insomnia group. We compared baseline characteristics and 1 year clinical outcomes according to the presence of insomnia. The primary outcome measure was all-cause death. RESULTS: There were 330 patients (9.7%) and 3084 patients (90.3%) with and without insomnia, respectively. In the multivariable logistic regression analysis, brain-type natriuretic peptide above median value at discharge (OR = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.08-2.10, P = 0.02) and the presence of oedema at discharge (OR = 4.23, 95% CI = 2.95-6.07, P < 0.001) were positively associated with insomnia at discharge, whereas diuretics at discharge (OR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.39-0.90, P = 0.01) were negatively associated with insomnia at discharge. The cumulative 1 year incidence of all-cause death was significantly higher in the insomnia group than in the non-insomnia group (25.1% vs. 16.2%, P < 0.001). Even after adjusting the confounders, the higher mortality risk of patients with insomnia relative to those without insomnia remained significant (HR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.24-1.94; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with insomnia at discharge were associated with a higher risk of mortality than those without insomnia at discharge.

Appetite loss at discharge from acute decompensated heart failure: Observation from KCHF registry.

OBJECTIVE: The complex link between nutritional status, protein and lipid synthesis, and immunity plays an important prognostic role in patients with heart failure. However, the association between appetite loss at discharge and long-term outcome remains unclear. METHODS: The Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry is a prospective cohort study that enrolled consecutive patients hospitalized for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) in Japan. We assessed 3528 patients alive at discharge, and for whom appetite and follow-up data were available. We compared one-year clinical outcomes in patients with and without appetite loss at discharge. RESULTS: In the multivariable logistic regression analysis using 19 clinical and laboratory factors with P value < 0.1 by univariate analysis, BMI < 22 kg/m2 (odds ratio (OR): 1.57, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-2.24, P = 0.01), CRP >1.0mg/dL (OR: 1.49, 95%CI: 1.04-2.14, P = 0.03), and presence of edema at discharge (OR: 4.30, 95%CI: 2.99-6.22, P<0.001) were associated with an increased risk of appetite loss at discharge, whereas ambulatory status (OR: 0.57, 95%CI: 0.39-0.83, P = 0.004) and the use of ACE-I/ARB (OR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.50-0.98, P = 0.04) were related to a decreased risk in the presence of appetite loss. The cumulative 1-year incidence of all-cause death (primary outcome measure) was significantly higher in patients with appetite loss than in those without appetite loss (31.0% vs. 15.0%, P<0.001). The excess adjusted risk of appetite loss relative to no appetite loss remained significant for all-cause death (hazard ratio (HR): 1.63, 95%CI: 1.29-2.07, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Loss of appetite at discharge was associated with worse 1-year mortality in patients with ADHF. Appetite is a simple, reliable, and useful subjective marker for risk stratification of patients with ADHF.

Public assistance in patients with acute heart failure: a report from the KCHF registry.

AIMS: There is a scarcity of data on the post-discharge prognosis in acute heart failure (AHF) patients with a low-income but receiving public assistance. The study sought to evaluate the differences in the clinical characteristics and outcomes between AHF patients receiving public assistance and those not receiving public assistance. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry was a physician-initiated, prospective, observational, multicentre cohort study enrolling 4056 consecutive patients who were hospitalized due to AHF for the first time between October 2014 and March 2016. The present study population consisted of 3728 patients who were discharged alive from the index AHF hospitalization. We divided the patients into two groups, those receiving public assistance and those not receiving public assistance. After assessing the proportional hazard assumption of public assistance as a variable, we constructed multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to estimate the risk of the public assistance group relative to the no public assistance group. There were 218 patients (5.8%) receiving public assistance and 3510 (94%) not receiving public assistance. Patients in the public assistance group were younger, more frequently had chronic coronary artery disease, previous heart failure hospitalizations, current smoking, poor medical adherence, living alone, no occupation, and a lower left ventricular ejection fraction than those in the no public assistance group. During a median follow-up of 470 days, the cumulative 1 year incidences of all-cause death and heart failure hospitalizations after discharge did not differ between the public assistance group and no public assistance group (13.3% vs. 17.4%, P = 0.10, and 28.3% vs. 23.8%, P = 0.25, respectively). After adjusting for the confounders, the risk of the public assistance group relative to the no public assistance group remained insignificant for all-cause death [hazard ratio (HR), 0.97; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.69-1.32; P = 0.84]. Even after taking into account the competing risk of all-cause death, the adjusted risk within 180 days in the public assistance group relative to the no public assistance group remained insignificant for heart failure hospitalizations (HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.64-1.34; P = 0.69), while the adjusted risk beyond 180 days was significant (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.07-2.29; P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: The AHF patients receiving public assistance as compared with those not receiving public assistance had no significant excess risk for all-cause death at 1 year after discharge or a heart failure hospitalization within 180 days after discharge, while they did have a significant excess risk for heart failure hospitalizations beyond 180 days after discharge. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02334891 (NCT02334891) and https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000017241 (UMIN000015238).

Left atrial reverse remodeling improves risk stratification in patients with heart failure with recovered ejection fraction.

We aimed to investigate the relationship between left atrial (LA) reverse remodeling and prognosis of heart failure (HF) with recovered ejection fraction (EF) (HFrecEF). Among 1,246 patients with acute heart failure enrolled in the prospective longitudinal follow-up study, 397 patients with HF with mildly-reduced EF and with reduced EF at discharge were analyzed. Echocardiography was performed during the index hospitalization and at the 6-month follow-up after discharge. They were divided into non-HFrecEF (n = 227) and HFrecEF (n = 170) groups. The primary outcome measure was a composite of all-cause death or hospitalization for HF. The cumulative 180-day incidence of the primary outcome measure after follow-up echocardiography was significantly lower in the HFrecEF group than in the non-HFrecEF group (8.9% versus 23.4%, log-rank P = 0.0002). LA reverse remodeling was associated with a lower cumulative 6-month incidence of the primary outcome measure in the HFrecEF group (4.7% versus 18.0%; HR: 0.27, 95%CI: 0.09-0.79, P = 0.01), but not in the non-HFrecEF group (24.4% versus 22.6%; HR: 1.13, 95%CI: 0.65-1.96, P = 0.28) with a significant LA reverse remodeling-by-HFrecEF interaction (P for interaction = 0.02). Combination of left ventricular and atrial reverse remodeling may help in improving HF risk stratification.

Starting Neurohormonal Antagonists in Patients With Acute Heart Failure With Mid-Range and Preserved Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: The clinical benefits of neurohormonal antagonists for patients with heart failure (HF) with mid-range and preserved ejection fraction (HFmrEF and HFpEF) are uncertain.Methods and Results: This study analyzed 858 consecutive patients with HFmrEF (EF: 40-49%) or HFpEF (EF ≥50%), who were hospitalized for acute HF, and who were discharged alive, and were not taking angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACE)-I/ angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB) or ß-blockers at admission. The study population was classified into 4 groups according to the status of prescription of ACE-I/ARB and ß-blocker at discharge: no neurohormonal antagonist (n=342, 39.9%), ACE-I/ARB only (n=128, 14.9%), ß-blocker only (n=189, 22.0%), and both ACE-I/ARB and ß-blocker (n=199, 23.2%) groups. The primary outcome measure was a composite of all-cause death or HF hospitalization. The cumulative 1-year incidence of the primary outcome measure was 41.2% in the no neurohormonal antagonist group, 34.0% in the ACE-I/ARB only group, 28.6% in the ß-blocker only group, and 16.4% in the both ACE-I/ARB and ß-blocker group (P<0.001). Compared with the no neurohormonal antagonist group, both the ACE-I/ARB and ß-blocker groups were associated with a significantly lower risk for a composite of all-cause death or HF hospitalization (HR: 0.46, 95% CI: 0.28-0.76, P=0.002). CONCLUSIONS: In hospitalized patients with HFmrEF and HFpEF, starting both ACE-I/ARB and a ß-blocker was associated with a reduced risk of the composite of all-cause death or HF hospitalization compared with patients not starting on an ACE-I/ARB or ß-blocker.

Changes in BNP levels from discharge to 6-month visit predict subsequent outcomes in patients with acute heart failure.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the association between changes in brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) from discharge to 6-month visit and subsequent clinical outcomes in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). METHODS: Among 1246 patients enrolled in the prospective longitudinal follow-up study nested from the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, this study population included 446 patients with available paired BNP data at discharge and 6-month index visit. This study population was classified into 3 groups by percent change in BNP from discharge to 6-month visit; the low tertile (≤-44%, N = 149), the middle tertile (>-44% and ≤22%, N = 149) and the high tertile (>22%, N = 148). FINDINGS: The cumulative 180-day incidence after the index visit of the primary outcome measure (a composite endpoint of all-cause death or hospitalization for HF) was significantly higher in the high and middle tertiles than in the low tertile (26.8% and 14.4% versus 6.9%, log-rank P<0.0001). The adjusted excess risk of the high tertile relative to the low tertile remained significant for the primary outcome measure (hazard ratio: 3.43, 95% confidence interval: 1.51-8.46, P = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Percent change in BNP was associated with a subsequent risk for a composite of all-cause death and hospitalization for HF after adjustment of the absolute BNP values, suggesting that observing the change in BNP levels, in addition to absolute BNP levels themselves, helps us to manage patient with HF.

Current use of inotropes according to initial blood pressure and peripheral perfusion in the treatment of congestive heart failure: findings from a multicentre observational study.

OBJECTIVES: Current guidelines restrict the use of inotropes for the treatment for heart failure (HF) unless the patients are hypotensive or hypoperfused because of safety concerns. This study sought to characterise the contemporary real-world use of inotropes and associated long-term outcomes according to systolic blood pressure (sBP) and perfusion status. DESIGN: A multicentre prospective cohort study. SETTING: This study was nested from the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, which included consecutive Japanese patients admitted for HF. PARTICIPANTS: We categorised 3995 patients into two groups: sBP ≥90 mm Hg and warm profile group, and sBP <90 mm Hg or cold profile group. In each group, patients were stratified across the use of inotropes within 24 hours of hospital presentation. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: The primary outcome was all-cause death throughout follow-up. Secondary outcomes included cardiovascular death throughout follow-up, all-cause death during index hospitalisation and after discharge, and HF hospitalisation. RESULTS: A total of 793 patients (20%) presented with sBP <90 mm Hg or cold profile, whereas 3202 patients had sBP ≥90 mm Hg and warm profile; 276 patients (35%) in the sBP <90 mm Hg/cold group and 312 patients (10%) in the sBP ≥90 mm Hg/warm group received initial inotropic treatment. Adjusted excess risk of inotrope use relative to no inotrope for the primary outcome measure was significant in the sBP ≥90 mm Hg/warm group (adjusted HR), 1.36; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.72, p=0.006) but not in the sBP <90 mm Hg/cold group (adjusted HR, 1.28, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.69, p=0.09). Risk for postdischarge all-cause death and HF hospitalisation was not significantly different between the patients with inotropes and no inotropes in both groups. CONCLUSION: Inotrope use in the absence of hypotension and hypoperfusion is still common, but associated with a worse long-term prognosis. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: UMIN000015238.