Mortality and cancer incidence in UK military veterans involved in human experiments at Porton Down: 48-year follow-up.

BACKGROUND: We investigated whether military personnel involved in chemical warfare agent research at Porton Down had increased rates of mortality or cancer incidence. METHODS: This was a historical cohort study comprising male UK veterans who participated in the 'Service Volunteer Programme', 1941-89, identified from Porton Down experiment books, and a comparison group of similar 'non-Porton Down' veterans identified from military personnel files. Of 19 233 records retrieved for each group, 18 133 (94%) Porton Down and 17 591 (92%) non-Porton Down were included in our analytical sample. Mortality and cancer incidence data were obtained from national registries up to December 2019. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 48.1 years, 10 935 Porton Down veterans (60.3%) and 10 658 non-Porton Down veterans (60.6%) had died. After adjustment for age, year of birth and military service characteristics, overall, Porton Down veterans had a 6% higher rate of all-cause mortality compared with non-Porton Down veterans [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.09]. For cause-specific mortality, Porton Down veterans had higher rates of death from genitourinary diseases (HR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.05-1.70) and deaths attributable to alcohol (HR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.07-1.94), with weaker associations observed for deaths from infectious and parasitic diseases (HR = 1.32, 95% CI 0.99-1.78), lung cancer (HR = 1.10, 95% CI 1.01-1.20) and external causes (HR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.00-1.32). Associations with all-cause mortality were stronger for veterans who attended Porton Down between 1960 and 1964 (HR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.19-1.50); likelihood-ratio test, P = 0.006. There was no association between attendance at Porton Down and overall cancer incidence (HR = 1.00, 95% CI 0.95-1.03). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, mortality rates were slightly higher in Porton Down veterans, but there was no difference in cancer incidence. Associations for mortality were stronger in Porton Down veterans who attended in the early 1960s.

Facilitating equitable access to hospice care in socially deprived areas: A mixed methods multiple case study.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty about the factors influencing inequities in access to palliative care in socially deprived areas, including the role of service models and professional perceptions. AIM: To explore the relationship between social deprivation and access to hospice care, including factors influencing access and professional experiences of providing care. DESIGN: A mixed-methods multiple case study approach was used. Hospice referrals data were analysed using generalised linear mixed models and other regression analyses. Qualitative interviews with healthcare professionals were analysed using thematic analysis. Findings from different areas (cases) were compared in a cross-case analysis. SETTING: The study took place in North West England, using data from three hospices (8699 hospice patients) and interviews with 42 healthcare professionals. RESULTS: Social deprivation was not statistically significantly, or consistently, associated with hospice referrals in the three cases (Case 1, Incidence Rate Ratio 1.04, p = 0.75; Case 2, Incidence Rate Ratio 1.09, p = 0.15, Case 3, Incidence Rate Ratio 0.88, p = 0.35). Hospice data and interviews suggest the model of hospice care, including working relationship with hospitals, and the local nature of social deprivation influenced access. Circumstances associated with social deprivation can conflict with professional expectations within palliative care. CONCLUSION: Hospice care in the UK can be organised in ways that facilitate referrals of patients from socially deprived areas, although uncertainty about what constitutes need limits conclusions about equity. Grounding professional narratives around expectations, responsibility, and choice in frameworks that recognise the sociostructural influences on end-of-life circumstances may help to foster more equitable palliative care.

The Ten-Year Risk Prediction for Cardiovascular Disease for Malaysian Adults Using the Laboratory-Based and Office-Based (Globorisk) Prediction Model.

Background and Objectives: Globorisk is a well-validated risk prediction model that predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the national population of all countries. We aim to apply the Globorisk calculator and provide the overall, sex-specific, ethnic-specific, region-specific, and state-specific 10-year risk for CVD among Malaysian adults. Materials and Methods: Using Malaysia's risk factor levels and CVD event rates, we calculated the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores to predict the 10-year risk for fatal CVD and fatal plus non-fatal CVD for the Malaysian adult population. We analysed data from 8253 participants from the 2015 nationwide Malaysian National Health and Morbidity Survey (NHMS 2015). The average risk for the 10-year fatal and fatal plus non-fatal CVD was calculated, and participants were further grouped into four categories: low risk (<10% risk for CVD), high risk A (≥10%), high risk B (≥20%), and high risk C (≥30%). Results: Results were reported for all participants and were then stratified by sex, ethnicity, region, and state. The average risks for laboratory-based fatal CVD, laboratory-based fatal plus non-fatal CVD, and office-based fatal plus non-fatal CVD were 0.07 (SD = 0.10), 0.14 (SD = 0.12), and 0.11 (SD = 0.09), respectively. Conclusions: There were substantial differences in terms of the sex-, ethnicity- and state-specific Globorisk risk scores obtained.

Exploring socioeconomic inequities in access to palliative and end-of-life care in the UK: a narrative synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Efforts inequities in access to palliative and end-of-life care require comprehensive understanding about the extent of and reasons for inequities. Most research on this topic examines differences in receipt of care. There is a need, particularly in the UK, for theoretically driven research that considers both receipt of care and the wider factors influencing the relationship between socioeconomic position and access to palliative and end-of-life care. METHODS: This is a mixed studies narrative synthesis on socioeconomic position and access to palliative and end-of-life care in the UK. Study searches were conducted in databases AMED, Medline, Embase, CINAHL, SocIndex, and Academic Literature Search, as well as grey literature sources, in July 2020. The candidacy model of access, which describes access as a seven-stage negotiation between patients and providers, guided study searches and provided a theoretical lens through which data were synthesised. RESULTS: Searches retrieved 5303 studies (after de-duplication), 29 of which were included. The synthesis generated four overarching themes, within which concepts of candidacy were evident: identifying needs; taking action; local conditions; and receiving care. CONCLUSION: There is not a consistent or clear narrative regarding the relationship between socioeconomic position and receipt of palliative and end-of-life care in the UK. Attempts to address any inequities in access will require knowledge and action across many different areas. Key evidence gaps in the UK literature concern the relationship between socioeconomic position, organisational context, and assessing need for care.

Spatial Variation of Survival for Colorectal Cancer in Malaysia.

A patient's survival may depend on several known and unknown factors and it may also vary spatially across a region. Socioeconomic status, accessibility to healthcare and other environmental factors are likely to contribute to survival rates. The aim of the study was to model the spatial variation in survival for colorectal cancer patients in Malaysia, accounting for individual and socioeconomic risk factors. We conducted a retrospective study of 4412 colorectal cancer (ICD-10, C18-C20) patients diagnosed from 2008 to 2013 to model survival in CRC patients. We used the data recorded in the database of the Malaysian National Cancer Patient Registry-Colorectal Cancer (NCPR-CRC). Spatial location was assigned based on the patients' central district location, which involves 144 administrative districts of Malaysia. We fitted a parametric proportional hazards model in which the spatially correlated frailties were modelled by a log-Gaussian stochastic process to analyse the spatially referenced survival data, which is also known as a spatial survival model. After controlling for individual and area level characteristics, our findings indicate wide spatial variation in colorectal cancer survival across Malaysia. Better healthcare provision and higher socioeconomic index in the districts where patients live decreased the risk of death from colorectal cancer, but these associations were not statistically significant. Reliable measurement of environmental factors is needed to provide good insight into the effects of potential risk factors for the disease. For example, a better metric is needed to measure socioeconomic status and accessibility to healthcare in the country. The findings provide new information that might be of use to the Ministry of Health in identifying populations with an increased risk of poor survival, and for planning and providing cancer control services.

The Impact of Prehabilitation on Patient Outcomes in Hepatobiliary, Colorectal, and Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer Surgery: A PRISMA-Accordant Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of prehabilitation on hospital length of stay, functional capacity, complications, and mortality after surgery in patients with hepatobiliary, colorectal, and upper gastrointestinal cancer. BACKGROUND: "Prehabilitation" encompasses exercise, nutrition, and psychosocial interventions to optimize health before surgery. The benefits of prehabilitation are ill-defined. METHODS: Medline, Embase and Cochrane Databases were searched systematically for the terms "prehabilitation AND exercise," "perioperative care AND cancer surgery," and "colorectal AND hepatobiliary AND hepatopancreatobiliary AND esophagogastric AND recovery AND outcomes." Primary outcomes analyzed were hospital length of stay, functional capacity, significant postoperative complications (Clavien Dindo ≥ III), and mortality. A meta-analysis was conducted on the effect of all-modality prehabilitation for patients with colorectal, hepatopancreatobiliary and upper gastrointestinal cancer surgery using the raw mean difference, risk difference, and a random-effects model. RESULTS: Three hundred and seventy seven original titles were identified. Fifteen studies (randomized controlled trials; n = 9 and uncontrolled trials; n = 6) were included in the meta-analysis. Prehabilitation reduced hospital length of stay by 1.78 days versus standard care (95% CI: -3.36, -0.20, P < 0.05). There was no significant difference in functional capacity with prehabilitation determined using the 6-minute walk test (P = 0.816) and no significant reduction in postoperative complications (P = 0.378) or mortality rates (P = 0.114). CONCLUSIONS: Prehabilitation was associated with reduced hospital length of stay but had no effect on functional capacity, postoperative complications, or mortality rates. Thus, prehabilitation should be recommended to accelerate recovery from cancer surgery, demonstrated by reduced hospital length of stay.

COVID-19: Transatlantic Declines in Pediatric Emergency Admissions.

INTRODUCTION: This cross-sectional study looked at the impact of the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic on pediatric emergency department (PED) attendances and admissions (as a proxy for severity of illness) in the United States and United Kingdom. METHODS: Data were extracted for children and adolescents, younger than 16 years, attending Royal Manchester Children's Hospital (RMCH, United Kingdom), and Yale New Haven Children's Hospital (YNHCH, United States). Attendances for weeks 1 to 20 of 2020 and 2019 were compared, and likelihood of admission was assessed via calculation of odds ratios, using week 13 (lockdown) as a cutoff. RESULTS: Attendance numbers for each PED decreased in 2020 compared with 2019 (RMCH, 29.2%; YNHCH, 24.8%). Odds of admission were significantly higher after lockdown than in 2019-RMCH (odds ratio, 1.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.46) and YNHCH (odds ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-1.98). CONCLUSIONS: Although the absolute numbers of children and adolescents attending the PED and being admitted decreased after lockdown, the acuity of illness of those attending appears to be higher.

Associations between Length of Stay in Long Term Care Facilities and End of Life Care. Analysis of the PACE Cross-Sectional Study.

Long term care facilities (LTCFs) are increasingly a place of care at end of life in Europe. Longer residence in an LTCF prior to death has been associated with higher indicators of end of life care; however, the relationship has not been fully explored. The purpose of this analysis is to explore associations between length of stay and end of life care. The analysis used data collected in the Palliative Care for Older People in care and nursing homes in Europe (PACE) study, a cross-sectional mortality follow-back survey of LTCF residents who died within a retrospective 3-month period, conducted in Belgium, England, Finland, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland. Primary outcomes were quality of care in the last month of life, comfort in the last week of life, contact with health services in the last month of life, presence of advance directives and consensus in care. Longer lengths of stay were associated with higher scores of quality of care in the last month of life and comfort in the last week of life. Longer stay residents were more likely to have advance directives in place and have a lasting power of attorney for personal welfare. Further research is needed to explore the underlying reasons for this trend, and how good quality end of life care can be provided to all LTCF residents.

Length of stay in long-term care facilities: a comparison of residents in six European countries. Results of the PACE cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: This paper aims to investigate resident, facility and country characteristics associated with length of stay in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) across six European countries. SETTING: Data from a cross-sectional study of deceased residents, conducted in LTCFs in Belgium, England, Finland, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland. PARTICIPANTS: All residents aged 65 years and older at admission who died in a 3-month period residing in a proportional random sample of LTCFs were included. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was length of stay in days, calculated from date of admission and date of death. Resident, facility and country characteristics were included in a proportional hazards model. RESULTS: The proportion of deaths within 1 year of admission was 42% (range 32%-63%). Older age at admission (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.06), being married/in a civil partnership at time of death (HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.89), having cancer at time of death (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.22 to 2.10) and admission from a hospital (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.43 to 2.37) or another LTCF (HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.37 to 2.40) were associated with shorter lengths of stay across all countries. Being female (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.90) was associated with longer lengths of stay. CONCLUSIONS: Length of stay varied significantly between countries. Factors prior to LTCF admission, in particular the availability of resources that allow an older adult to remain living in the community, appear to influence length of stay. Further research is needed to explore the availability of long-term care in the community prior to admission and its influence on the trajectories of LTCF residents in Europe.

Observational study to assess the effects of social networks on the seasonal influenza vaccine uptake by early career doctors.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effect of social network influences on seasonal influenza vaccination uptake by healthcare workers. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, observational study. SETTING: A large secondary care NHS Trust which includes four hospital sites in Greater Manchester. PARTICIPANTS: Foundation doctors (FDs) working at the Pennine Acute Hospitals NHS Trust during the study period. Data collection took place during compulsory weekly teaching sessions, and there were no exclusions. Of the 200 eligible FDs, 138 (70%) provided complete data. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Self-reported seasonal influenza vaccination status. RESULTS: Among participants, 100 (72%) reported that they had received a seasonal influenza vaccination. Statistical modelling demonstrated that having a higher proportion of vaccinated neighbours increased an individual's likelihood of being vaccinated. The coefficient for γ, the social network parameter, was 0.965 (95% CI: 0.248 to 1.682; odds: 2.625 (95% CI: 1.281 to 5.376)), that is, a diffusion effect. Adjusting for year group, geographical area and sex did not account for this effect. CONCLUSIONS: This population exhibited higher than expected vaccination coverage levels-providing protection both in the workplace and for vulnerable patients. The modelling approach allowed covariate effects to be incorporated into social network analysis which gave us a better understanding of the network structure. These techniques have a range of applications in understanding the role of social networks on health behaviours.

Factors associated with length of stay in care homes: a systematic review of international literature.

BACKGROUND: A number of studies have explored factors associated with resident length of stay in care homes; however the findings of these studies have not been synthesized. The aim of this paper is to provide a systematic review of factors associated with length of stay until death and the strength of evidence supporting each of these factors. METHODOLOGY: This is a systematic review; databases included MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Proquest, the Cochrane Library and Web of Science were searched. Observational studies, either prospective or retrospective, that explored multiple factors associated with length of stay until death in care homes were included. Studies that met the inclusion criteria were sourced, data extracted and assessed for quality. Data synthesis combined the direction and significance of association with the quality of the study, resulting in strong, moderate, weak or inconclusive evidence for each factor identified. RESULTS: Forty-seven studies were identified as meeting the inclusion criteria. After quality assessment, 14 studies were judged to be of a high quality, 31 of a moderate quality and 2 of a low quality. Three factors had strong evidence to support their association with shorter lengths of stay: shortness of breath, receipt of oxygen therapy and admission to a facility providing nursing care. CONCLUSIONS: This review summarized the factors associated with length of stay. It found stronger evidence for physical functioning being associated with shorter lengths of stay than for cognitive functioning. An understanding of expected length of stay for older adults admitted to a care home is important for estimating lifetime costs and the implications of reforming funding arrangements for social care. Further research is needed to explore heterogeneity in this area.

The change of Barthel Index scores from the time of discharge until 3-month post-discharge among acute stroke patients in Malaysia: A random intercept model.

BACKGROUND: Acute stroke results in functional disability measurable using the well-known Barthel Index. The objectives of the study are to describe the change in the Barthel Index score and to model the prognostic factors for Barthel Index change from discharge up to 3 months post-discharge using the random intercept model among patients with acute first ever stroke in Kelantan, Malaysia. METHODS: A total 98 in-hospital first ever acute stroke patients were recruited, and their Barthel Index scores were measured at the time of discharge, at 1 month and 3 months post-discharge. The Barthel Index was scored through telephone interviews. We employed the random intercept model from linear mixed effect regression to model the change of Barthel Index scores during the three months intervals. The prognostic factors included in the model were acute stroke subtypes, age, sex and time of measurement (at discharge, at 1 month and at 3 month post-discharge). RESULTS: The crude mean Barthel Index scores showed an increased trend. The crude mean Barthel Index at the time of discharge, at 1-month post-discharge and 3 months post-discharge were 35.1 (SD = 39.4), 64.4 (SD = 39.5) and 68.8 (SD = 38.9) respectively. Over the same period, the adjusted mean Barthel Index scores estimated from the linear mixed effect model increased from 39.6 to 66.9 to 73.2. The adjusted mean Barthel Index scores decreased as the age increased, and haemorrhagic stroke patients had lower adjusted mean Barthel Index scores compared to the ischaemic stroke patients. CONCLUSION: Overall, the crude and adjusted mean Barthel Index scores increase from the time of discharge up to 3-month post-discharge among acute stroke patients. Time after discharge, age and stroke subtypes are the significant prognostic factors for Barthel Index score changes over the period of 3 months.

Sarin Exposures in A Cohort of British Military Participants in Human Experimental Research at Porton Down 1945-1987.

Background: The effects of exposure to chemical warfare agents in humans are topical. Porton Down is the UK's centre for research on chemical warfare where, since WWI, a programme of experiments involving ~30000 participants drawn from the UK armed services has been undertaken. Objectives: Our aim is to report on exposures to nerve agents, particularly sarin, using detailed exposure data not explored in a previous analysis. Methods: In this paper, we have used existing data on exposures to servicemen who attended the human volunteer programme at Porton Down to examine exposures to nerve agents in general and to sarin in particular. Results: Six principal nerve agents were tested on humans between 1945 and 1987. Of all 4299 nerve agent tests recorded, 3511 (82%) were with sarin, most commonly in an exposure chamber, with inhalation being the commonest exposure route (85%). Biological response to sarin exposure was expressed as percentage change in cholinesterase activity and, less commonly, change in pupil size. For red blood cell cholinesterase, median inhibition for inhalation tests was 41% (interquartile range 28-51%), with a maximum of 87%. For dermal exposures the maximum inhibition recorded was 99%. There was a clear association between increasing exposure to sarin and depression of cholinesterase activity but the strength and direction of the association varied by exposure route and the presence of chemical or physical protection. Pupil size decreased with increased exposure but this relationship was less clear when modifiers, such as atropine drops, were present. Conclusions: These results, drawn from high quality experimental data, offer a unique insight into the effects of these chemical agents on humans.

Differences in survival among adults with HIV-associated Kaposi's sarcoma during routine HIV treatment initiation in Zomba district, Malawi: a retrospective cohort analysis.

Background: The HIV epidemic is a major public health concern throughout Africa. Malawi is one of the worst affected countries in sub-Saharan Africa with a 2014 national HIV prevalence currently estimated at 10% (9.3-10.8%) by UNAIDS. Study reports, largely in the African setting comparing outcomes in HIV patients with and without Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) indicate poor prognosis and poor health outcomes amongst HIV+KS patients. Understanding the mortality risk in this patient group could help improve patient management and care. Methods: Using data for the 559 adult HIV+KS patients who started ART between 2004 and September 2011 at Zomba clinic in Malawi, we estimated relative hazard ratios for all-cause mortality by controlling for age, sex, TB status, occupation, date of starting treatment and distance to the HIV+KS clinic. Results: Patients with tuberculosis (95% CI: 1.05-4.65) and patients who started ART before 2008 (95% CI: 0.34-0.81) were at significantly greater risk of dying. A random-effects Cox model with Log-Gaussian frailties adequately described the variation in the hazard for mortality. Conclusion: The year of starting ART and TB status significantly affected survival among HIV+KS patients. A sub-population analysis of this kind can inform an efficient triage system for managing vulnerable patients.

Socialization, Indifference, and Convenience: Exploring the Uptake of Influenza Vaccine Among Medical Students and Early Career Doctors.

The Chief Medical Officer recommends that all health care workers receive an influenza vaccination annually. High vaccination coverage is believed to be the best protection against the spread of influenza within a hospital, although uptake by health care workers remains low. We conducted semistructured interviews with seven medical students and nine early career doctors, to explore the factors informing their influenza vaccination decision making. Data collection and analysis took place iteratively, until theoretical saturation was achieved, and a thematic analysis was performed. Socialization was important although its effects were attenuated by participants' previous experiences and a lack of clarity around the risks and benefits of vaccination. Many participants did not have strong intentions regarding vaccination. There was considerable disparity between an individual's opinion of the vaccine, their intentions, and their vaccination status. The indifference demonstrated here suggests few are strongly opposed to the vaccination-there is potential to increase vaccination coverage.