Systems analysis of BCL2 protein family interactions establishes a model to predict responses to chemotherapy.

Apoptotic desensitization is a hallmark of cancer cells, but present knowledge of molecular systems controlling apoptosis has yet to provide significant prognostic insights. Here, we report findings from a systems study of the intrinsic pathway of apoptosis by BCL2 family proteins and clinical translation of its findings into a model with applications in colorectal cancer (CRC). By determining absolute protein quantifications in CRC cells and patient tumor samples, we found that BAK and BAX were expressed more highly than their antiapoptotic inhibitors. This counterintuitive finding suggested that sole inhibition of effector BAX and BAK could not be sufficient for systems stability in nonstressed cells. Assuming a model of direct effector activation by BH3-only proteins, we calculated that the amount of stress-induced BH3-only proteins required to activate mitochondrial apoptosis could predict individual death responses of CRC cells to 5-fluorouracil/oxaliplatin. Applying this model predictor to protein profiles in tumor and matched normal tissue samples from 26 patients with CRCs, we found that differences in protein quantities were sufficient to model the increased tumor sensitivity to chemotherapy compared with normal tissue. In addition, these differences were sufficient to differentiate clinical responders from nonresponders with high confidence. Applications of our model, termed DR_MOMP, were used to assess the impact of apoptosis-sensitizing drugs in lowering the necessary dose of state-of-the-art chemotherapy in individual patients. Together, our findings offer a ready clinical tool with the potential to tailor chemotherapy to individual patients.

Clinical application of a systems model of apoptosis execution for the prediction of colorectal cancer therapy responses and personalisation of therapy.

OBJECTIVE: Key to the clinical management of colorectal cancer is identifying tools which aid in assessing patient prognosis and determining more effective and personalised treatment strategies. We evaluated whether an experimental systems biology strategy which analyses the susceptibility of cancer cells to undergo caspase activation can be exploited to predict patient responses to 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy and to case-specifically identify potential alternative targeted treatments to reactivate apoptosis. DESIGN: We quantified five essential apoptosis-regulating proteins (Pro-Caspases 3 and 9, APAF-1, SMAC and XIAP) in samples of Stage II (n = 13) and III (n=17) tumour and normal colonic (n = 8) tissue using absolute quantitative immunoblotting and employed systems simulations of apoptosis signalling to predict the susceptibility of tumour cells to execute apoptosis. Additional systems analyses assessed the efficacy of novel apoptosis-inducing therapeutics such as XIAP antagonists, proteasome inhibitors and Pro-Caspase-3-activating compounds in restoring apoptosis execution in apoptosis-incompetent tumours. RESULTS: Comparisons of caspase activity profiles demonstrated that the likelihood of colorectal tumours to undergo apoptosis decreases with advancing disease stage. Systems-level analysis correctly predicted positive or negative outcome in 85% (p=0.004) of colorectal cancer patients receiving 5-fluorouracil based chemotherapy and significantly outperformed common uni- and multi-variate statistical approaches. Modelling of individual patient responses to novel apoptosis-inducing therapeutics revealed markedly different inter-individual responses. CONCLUSIONS: Our study represents the first proof-of-concept example demonstrating the significant clinical potential of systems biology-based approaches for predicting patient outcome and responsiveness to novel targeted treatment paradigms.