Epidemiological transition: a historical analysis of immigration patterns by country of origin (1861-1986) related to circulatory system diseases and all-cause mortality in twentieth-century Australia.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Circulatory system disease (CSD) patterns vary over time and between countries, related to lifestyle risk factors, associated in turn with socioeconomic circumstances. Current global CSD epidemics in developing economies are similar in scale to those observed previously in the USA and Australasia. Australia exhibits an important macroeconomic phenomenon as a rapidly transitioning economy with high immigration throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. We wished to examine how that historical immigration related to CSD patterns subsequently. METHODS AND SETTING: We provide a novel empirical analysis employing census-derived place of birth by age bracket and sex from 1891 to 1986, in order to map patterns of immigration against CSD mortality rates from 1907 onwards. Age-specific generalised additive models for both CSD mortality in the general population, and all-cause mortality for the foreign-born (FB) only, from 1910 to 1980 were also devised for both males and females. RESULTS: The percentage of FB fell from 32% in 1891 to 9.8% in 1947. Rates of CSD rose consistently, particularly from the 1940s onwards, peaked in the 1960s, then declined sharply in the 1980s and showed a strong period effect across age groups and genders. The main effects of age and census year and their interaction were highly statistically significant for CSD mortality for males (p<0.001, each term) and for females (p<0.001, each term). The main effect of age and year were statistically significant for all-cause mortality minus net migration rates for the FB females (each p<0.001), and for FB males, age (p<0.001) was significant. CONCLUSIONS: We argue our empirical calculations, supported by historical and socioepidemiological evidence, employing immigration patterns as a proxy for epidemiological transition, affirm the life course hypothesis that both early life circumstances and later life lifestyle drive CSD patterns.

Comparative Analysis of Swept-Source Optical Coherence Tomography and Partial Coherence Interferometry Biometers in the Prediction of Cataract Surgery Refractive Outcomes.

PURPOSE: To compare the accuracy of pre-operative corneal measurements obtained with four devices, and the refractive outcomes of two optical biometers. SETTING: Private practice. DESIGN: Retrospective. METHODS: Data taken from biometric measurements on 299 consecutive eyes prior to cataract surgery were retrospectively analyzed using the Argos SS-Optical Biometer and the Lenstar LS900 PCI optical biometer. As part of the standard cataract surgery pre-operative exam, patients also underwent placido disk topography and Scheimpflug tomography. Keratometry, anterior chamber depth, corneal diameter, pupil diameter, central corneal thickness and axial length were all measured. The comparable measurements were compared. Finally, for those eyes where cataract surgery was performed, the post-operative refractive results were compared to the predictive results of the two biometers. RESULTS: The SS-OCT Argos was able to measure all eyes, while five eyes could not be measured with the Lenstar LS900 PCI. Axial length measurements were performed only with the Argos and Lenstar devices. The eyes that could not be measured by the Lenstar LS900 PCI included dense grade IV nuclear sclerosis and large posterior subcapsular cataracts. In the primary endpoints, there was strong correlation between the Argos and the Lenstar devices in eyes with an axial length between 20 and 30 mm. CONCLUSION: The predictive accuracies of the Argos Optical Biometer and Lenstar LS900 PCI are similar, except in medium and long eyes, in which the predictive accuracy of Argos SS-OCT biometry was higher. The Argos system was found easier to use by technicians when compared to the other biometry devices.

A neural network analysis of Lifeways cross-generation imputed data.

OBJECTIVES: Neural networks are a powerful statistical tool that use nonlinear regression type models to obtain predictions. Their use in the Lifeways cross-generation study that examined body mass index (BMI) of children, among other measures, is explored here. Our aim is to predict the BMI of children from that of their parents and maternal and paternal grandparents. For comparison purposes, linear models will also be used for prediction. A complicating factor is the large amount of missing data. The missing data may be imputed and we examine the effects of different imputation methods on prediction. An analysis using neural networks (and also linear models) that uses all available data without imputation is also carried out, and is the gold standard by which the analyses with imputed data sets are compared. RESULTS: Neural network models performed better than linear models and can be used as a data analytic tool to detect nonlinear and interaction effects. Using neural networks the BMI of a child can be predicted from family members to within roughly 2.84 units. Results between the imputation methods were similar in terms of mean squared error, as were results based on imputed data compared to un-imputed data.

Happy birthday? An observational study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies show contradictory findings on the relationship between birthday and deathday, in particular whether people postpone death until after their birthday. We examine the phenomenon in eight groups of famous people. METHODS: Birthday and deathday for the following groups were recorded: British prime ministers, US presidents, Academy Award best actor, best female actor, best director, Nobel Prize winners, Wimbledon men's and ladies' singles winners, all from when records began. For each group, the difference in days between the deathday and birthday was calculated. Under the hypothesis of no association, one can expect the difference to have a uniform distribution. This is assessed using goodness-of-fit tests on a circle. RESULTS: All groups showed some departure from the uniform and it occurred around the birthday in all groups. British prime ministers, US presidents, Academy Award actors and directors, Nobel Prize winners and Wimbledon men show a 'dip' in deaths around the birthday. The length of the 'dip' varied between the groups and so they gave different p-values on different test statistics. For Academy Award female actors and Wimbledon ladies, there was rise in deaths before and after birthday. When Nobel Prize winners were subdivided into their categories, Science and Literature had a 'dip' around the birthday, but not other categories. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude 'something' happens to deathday around the birthday. Some groups of famous people show a 'dip' in death rate around the birthday while for others, particularly women, the association is in the opposite direction.

The value of serial metal ion levels in following up patients with metal-on-metal hip arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: The sensitivity of cobalt (Co) and chromium (Cr) ion-levels in detecting poorly performing metal-on-metal hip implants is low. This study proposes that serial changes in ion-levels are a more accurate marker of arthroplasties at risk. METHODS: Serial metal ion-levels and implant data of 285 patients with ASR resurfacing or replacement were studied. Patient and implant characteristics were analysed using univariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: 111 (39%) had revision surgery. Time since index surgery (p<0.001), acetabular inclination (p<0.001), their interaction (p<0.001) and femoral head size (p = 0.01) were significant variables. Head size (≤51 mm) had lower Co and Cr levels (p = 0.01). Cr/Co showed marginal decrease over time in the unrevised group and no decrease prerevision. CONCLUSIONS: Repeated measurement of ion-levels were higher in the revision group suggesting that serial measurements rather than absolute values may have a role to play in predicting implant failure.

Body mass index is associated with the maternal lines but height is heritable across family lines in the Lifeways Cross-Generation Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Overweight and obesity is a problem in children in particular and determining pathways of transmission is important in prevention. We aimed to examine associations for body mass index (BMI) across three generations of the same families. PARTICIPANTS: Members of 556 families in the Lifeways Cross-Generation Cohort Study 2001-2014. SETTING: Community-based study with linkage to health records in the Republic of Ireland. METHODS: Employing a novel mixed-method approach which adjusts for age and familial group, BMI correlations were estimated at three ages of the index child, that is, at birth and at ages 5 and 9. Height was also examined for comparative purposes. RESULTS: Correlation of offspring's BMI with that of the mother increased with age (correlation coefficient 0.15 increasing to 0.28, p value <0.001 in all cases) while no consistent pattern was seen with offspring and fathers. There was an association also with each parent and their own mother. Offspring's BMI was correlated to a lesser extent with that of the maternal grandmother while for girls only there was an association with that of the paternal grandmother at ages 0 and 5 (correlation coefficients 0.25, 0.28, p values 0.02, 0.01, respectively). In contrast, height of the child was strongly associated with those of all family members at age 5, but at birth and at age 9 only there was an association with those of the parents and the paternal grandfather. Correlation of offspring's height with those of the mother and father increased with age. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that BMI is predominantly associated with the maternal line, possibly either with intrauterine development, or inherited through the X chromosome, or both, while height is a more complex trait with genetic influences of the parents and that of the paternal grandfather predominating.

MRI findings following metal on metal hip arthroplasty and their relationship with metal ion levels and acetabular inclination angles.

Following the global recall of all ASR metal on metal hip products, our aim was to correlate MRI findings with acetabular inclination angles and metal ion levels in patients with these implants. Both cobalt and chromium levels were significantly higher in the presence of a periprosthetic fluid collection. There was no association between the presence of a periprosthetic mass, bone marrow oedema, trochanteric bursitis or greater levels of abductor muscle destruction for cobalt or chromium. There was no association between the level of periprosthetic tissue reaction and the acetabular inclination angle with any of the pathologies identified on MRI. The relationship between MRI pathology, metal ion levels and acetabular inclination angles in patients with ASR implants remains unclear adding to the complexity of managing patients.

The effect of acetabular inclination on metal ion levels following metal-on-metal hip arthroplasty.

Acetabular inclination angles have been suggested as a principal determinant of circulating metal ion levels in metal-on-metal hip arthroplasties. We aimed to determine whether inclination angle correlates with ion levels in arthroplasties using the Articular Surface Replacement (ASR) system. Patients undergoing ASR arthroplasties had blood metal ion levels and radiograph analysis performed a mean of 3.2 years after surgery. Inclination angle showed only a weak correlation with cobalt (r=0.21) and chromium (r=0.15) levels. The correlation between inclination angle and cobalt levels was significant only with small femoral components, although it was still weak. Multiple regression showed a complex interaction of factors influencing ion levels but inclination angle accounted for little of this variation. We conclude that the acetabular inclination angle is not a meaningful determinant of metal ion levels in ASR arthroplasties.

Optical ray tracing-guided myopic laser in situ keratomileusis: 1-year clinical outcomes.

PURPOSE: To compare the safety, efficacy, and predictability of laser in situ keratomileusis treatments at 1 year postprocedure using a novel geometric ray tracing algorithm with outcomes of treatments using wavefront-optimized, wavefront-guided, and topography-guided ablation profiles of an excimer laser (WaveLight GmbH, Erlangen, Germany; Alcon Laboratories, Fort Worth, TX, USA). SETTING: Wellington Eye Clinic, Dublin, Ireland. DESIGN: Retrospective comparative case series. METHODS: Eyes having a preoperative myopic spherical equivalent refractive error >4.00 D and/or astigmatism between 2.00-6.00 D resulting in a spherical equivalent power greater than -4.00 D received laser in situ keratomileusis treatments using a ray tracing algorithm. Refractive outcomes were analyzed postoperatively at 6 and 12 months and were compared to outcomes of wavefront-optimized, wavefront-guided, and topography-guided treatments in eyes with the same pretreatment refractive range. RESULTS: Forty-seven eyes of 26 patients were treated using the ray tracing algorithm. At 12 months postprocedure, uncorrected visual acuity was better than the preoperative best-corrected visual acuity in this group. The percentage of eyes achieving an uncorrected visual acuity or best-corrected visual acuity ≥20/20 significantly exceeded the rates achieved in the wavefront-optimized and topography-guided groups. A greater percentage of eyes achieved an uncorrected visual acuity ≥20/20 and ≥20/16 in the wavefront-guided group, but no eyes in the wavefront-guided group had an uncorrected visual acuity ≥20/12.5 in comparison to 9.5% of eyes in the ray tracing group. CONCLUSION: This study provides further evidence of the safety, efficacy, and predictability of laser in situ keratomileusis outcomes using an optical ray tracing algorithm to treat moderate to high myopic astigmatism and shows that good results are sustained through 1 year.

Predictability of corneal flap thickness in laser in situ keratomileusis using a 200 kHz femtosecond laser.

PURPOSE: To compare the intended versus the resultant thickness of laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) flaps created with a new femtosecond laser and to report the 3-month postoperative refractive outcomes. SETTING: Wellington Eye Clinic, Dublin, Ireland. DESIGN: Retrospective consecutive case series. METHODS: A consecutive series of eyes having LASIK flaps created using a Wavelight FS200 femtosecond laser were included in this analysis. Eyes with preoperative spherical equivalent (SE) myopic refractive errors up to -12.00 diopters (D), hyperopic refractive errors up to +5.50 D, and astigmatism up to 6.00 D received primary LASIK. Outcomes included postoperative flap thickness and 3-month postoperative refraction. RESULTS: Outcomes in 431 eyes of 258 patients having LASIK with femtosecond flap creation were assessed. With an intended flap thickness of 120 µm, the mean post-LASIK flap thickness was 120.23 µm ± 13.94 (SD). In 349 of 813 eyes, EX500 optical pachymetry measurements were compared with Scheimpflug pachymetry readings. The mean corneal thickness was 553.52 ± 29.81 µm with optical pachymetry and 553.39 ± 29.12 µm with the Pentacam rotating Scheimpflug camera. In 162 eyes, the flap thickness was measured with optical coherence tomography; the mean was 121.94 ± 10.52 µm. Achieved flap dimensions were as intended. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence of the predictability and lower variability of LASIK flaps created using the femtosecond laser. Consecutive patients having LASIK had good, predictable, and stable outcomes at the 3-month mark.

Body mass index and height over three generations: evidence from the Lifeways cross-generational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Obesity and its measure of body mass index are strongly determined by parental body size. Debate continues as to whether both parents contribute equally to offspring body mass which is key to understanding the aetiology of the disease. The aim of this study was to use cohort data from three generations of one family to examine the relative maternal and paternal associations with offspring body mass index and how these associations compare with family height to demonstrate evidence of genetic or environmental cross-generational transmission. METHODS: 669 of 1082 families were followed up in 2007/8 as part of the Lifeways study, a prospective observational cross-generation linkage cohort. Height and weight were measured in 529 Irish children aged 5 to 7 years and were self-reported by parents and grandparents. All adults provided information on self-rated health, education status, and indicators of income, diet and physical activity. Associations between the weight, height, and body mass index of family members were examined with mixed models and heritability estimates computed using linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Self-rated health was associated with lower BMI for all family members, as was age for children. When these effects were accounted for evidence of familial associations of BMI from one generation to the next was more apparent in the maternal line. Heritability estimates were higher (h2 = 0.40) for mother-offspring pairs compared to father-offspring pairs (h2 = 0.22). In the previous generation, estimates were higher between mothers-parents (h2 = 0.54-0.60) but not between fathers-parents (h2 = -0.04-0.17). Correlations between mother and offspring across two generations remained significant when modelled with fixed variables of socioeconomic status, health, and lifestyle. A similar analysis of height showed strong familial associations from maternal and paternal lines across each generation. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first family cohort study to report an enduring association between mother and offspring BMI over three generations. The evidence of BMI transmission over three generations through the maternal line in an observational study corroborates the findings of animal studies. A more detailed analysis of geno and phenotypic data over three generations is warranted to understand the nature of this maternal-offspring relationship.

Repeated measurement of the gas exchange threshold: relative size of measurement and biological variabilities.

If an individual's gas exchange threshold (GET) is measured on several separate occasions, without a change in aerobic fitness, a random variability will be observed. However, it is not known how much of this variability is biologically determined and how much results from variability in the calibration and measurement processes. The statistical re-sampling technique of Bootstrapping was used to estimate the variability of the GET on a single occasion. This analysis provides the first estimate of the combined contribution of breath-by-breath measurement and calibration processes (6%), to the total between-occasion random variability, leaving biological variability to account for the remainder of the imprecision in the measurement of the GET.

Tuberculosis in cattle: the results of the four-area project.

: The four-area project was undertaken to further assess the impact of badger removal on the control of tuberculosis in cattle herds in Ireland. It was conducted between 1997 and 2002 in matched removal and reference areas in four counties, namely Cork, Donegal, Kilkenny and Monaghan, representing a wide range of Irish farming environments. In the removal areas, a proactive programme of badger removal was conducted, on two or three occasions each year, whereas in the reference areas, badger removal was entirely reactive following severe outbreaks of tuberculosis amongst cattle. A detailed statistical analysis of this study has already been presented by Griffin et al. 13; this paper presents further, mainly descriptive, findings from the study. In total, 2,360 badgers were captured in the removal areas of which 450 (19.5%) were considered positive for tuberculosis and 258 badgers were captured in the reference areas, with 57 (26.1%) positive for tuberculosis. The annual incidence of confirmed herd restrictions was lower in the removal area compared to the reference area in every year of the study period in each of the four counties. These empirical findings were consistent with the hazard ratios found by Griffin et al. 13. Further, the effect of proactive badger removal on cattle tuberculosis in the four-area project and in the earlier east-Offaly project, as measured using the number of reactors per 1,000 cattle tested, were very similar, providing compelling evidence of the role of badgers in the epidemiology of tuberculosis in Irish cattle herds. The validity of the four-area project was discussed in detail. Efforts to minimise badger-to-cattle transmission in Ireland must be undertaken in association with the current comprehensive control programme, which has effectively minimised opportunities for cattle-to-cattle transmission.