Cost analysis and cost effectiveness of a subsidized community supported agriculture intervention for low-income families.

BACKGROUND: The food system has a dynamic influence on disparities in food security and diet-related chronic disease. Community supported agriculture (CSA) programs, in which households receive weekly shares of produce from a local farmer during the growing season, have been examined as a possible food systems-based approach for improving diet and health outcomes. The purpose of this study was to estimate the cost of implementing and participating in a multi-component subsidized community supported agriculture intervention and calculate cost-effectiveness based on diet and food security impacts. METHODS: Using data from the Farm Fresh Foods for Healthy Kids (F3HK) randomized controlled trial in New York, North Carolina, Vermont, and Washington (n = 305; 2016-2018), we estimated programmatic and participant costs and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for caregivers' daily fruit and vegetable (FV) intake, skin carotenoids, and household food security from program and societal perspectives. RESULTS: F3HK cost $2,439 per household annually ($1,884 in implementation-related expenses and $555 in participant-incurred costs). ICERs ranged from $1,507 to $2,439 per cup increase in caregiver's FV intake (depending on perspective, setting, and inclusion of juice); from $502 to $739 per one thousand unit increase in skin carotenoid score; and from $2,271 to $3,137 per household shifted out of food insecurity. CONCLUSIONS: Given the known public health, healthcare, and economic consequences of insufficient FV intake and living in a food insecure household, the costs incurred to support these positive shifts in individual- and household-level outcomes via a F3HK-like intervention may be deemed by stakeholders as a reasonable investment. This work helps to advance a critical body of literature on the cost-effectiveness of subsidized CSAs and other economic and food system interventions for the sake of evidence-based allocation of public health resources. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov. NCT02770196. Registered 5 April 2016. Retrospectively registered. https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov/ct2/show/NCT02770196 .

Health Economics Research in Primary Prevention of Cancer: Assessment, Current Challenges, and Future Directions.

In the past 2 decades, the demand for information on health economics research to guide health care decision making has substantially increased. Studies have provided evidence that eliminating or reducing tobacco use; eating a healthy diet, including fruit and vegetables; being physically active; reducing alcohol consumption; avoiding ultraviolet radiation; and minimizing exposure to environmental and occupational carcinogenic agents should substantially reduce cancer incidence in the population. The benefits of these primary prevention measures in reducing cancer incidence are not instantaneous. Therefore, health economics research has an important role to play in providing credible information to decision makers on the health and economic benefits of primary prevention. This article provides an overview of health economics research related to primary prevention of cancer. We addressed the following questions: 1) What are the gaps and unmet needs for performing health economics research focused on primary prevention of cancer? 2) What are the challenges and opportunities to conducting health economics research to evaluate primary prevention of cancer? and 3) What are the future directions for enhancing health economics research on primary prevention of cancer? Modeling primary prevention of cancer is often difficult given data limitations, long delays before the policy or intervention is effective, possible unintended effects of the policy or intervention, and the necessity of outside expertise to understand key inputs or outputs to the modeling. Despite these challenges, health economics research has an important role to play in providing credible information to decision makers on the health and economic benefits of primary prevention of cancer.

The Economics of Tobacco Regulation: A Comprehensive Review.

Tobacco regulation has been a major component of health policy in the developed world since the UK Royal College of Physicians' and the US Surgeon General's reports in the 1960s. Such regulation, which has intensified in the past two decades, includes cigarette taxation, place-based smoking bans in areas ranging from bars and restaurants to workplaces, and regulations designed to make tobacco products less desirable. More recently, the availability of alternative products, most notably e-cigarettes, has increased dramatically, and these products are just starting to be regulated. Despite an extensive body of research on tobacco regulations, there remains substantial debate regarding their effectiveness, and ultimately, their impact on economic welfare. We provide the first comprehensive review of the state of research in the economics of tobacco regulation in two decades.

Quantifying brand loyalty: Evidence from the cigarette market.

We exploit a quasi-experiment created when New York State began in 2011 to tax cigarettes sold on Native American Reservations. The regime change represents a unique opportunity to quantify brand loyalty because it almost doubled the price of premium-brand cigarettes, while Native brands were still untaxed. We use data from two different sources-the New York State Adult Tobacco Survey and the Nielsen Homescan Panel. We find that the increase in relative prices led to substantial declines in premium cigarette purchases. However, even among the premium consumers with the most to gain from switching, about three-quarters remained brand loyal.

Mostly harmless regulation? Electronic cigarettes, public policy, and consumer welfare.

Electronic cigarettes are a less harmful alternative to combustible cigarettes. We analyze data on e-cigarette choices in an online experimental market. Our data and mixed logit model capture two sources of consumer optimization errors: overestimates of the relative risks of e-cigarettes and present bias. Our novel data and policy analysis make three contributions. First, our predictions about e-cigarette use under counterfactual policy scenarios provide new information about current regulatory tradeoffs. Second, we provide empirical evidence about the role consumer optimization errors play in tobacco product choices. Third, we contribute to behavioral welfare analysis of policies that address individual optimization errors. Compared with standard cost-benefit analysis, our behavioral welfare economics analysis leads to much larger estimates of the costs of policies that discourage e-cigarette use or the benefits of policies that encourage e-cigarette use.

News that Takes Your Breath Away: Risk Perceptions During an Outbreak of Vaping-related Lung Injuries.

We study the impact of new information on people's perceptions of the risks of e-cigarettes. In September 2019 the U.S. experienced an outbreak of e-cigarette, or vaping, associated lung injuries (EVALI). The EVALI outbreak created an information shock, which was followed by additional new information in a later CDC recommendation. We use data on consumer risk perceptions from two sets of surveys conducted before (HINTS survey data) and during the EVALI outbreak (Google Survey data). The empirical model examines changes in risk perceptions during the early crisis period when the CDC was warning consumers that they should avoid all vaping products and during a later period when the message was refined and focused on a narrower set of illegal vaping products that contain THC (the main psychoactive compound in marijuana). Econometric results suggest that the immediate impact of the first information shock was to significantly increase the fraction of respondents who perceived e-cigarettes as more harmful than smoking. As the outbreak subsided and the CDC recommendation changed to emphasize the role of THC e-cigarette products, e-cigarette risk perceptions were only partially revised downwards. Individuals who had higher risk perceptions showed a weaker response to the first information shock but were more likely to later revise their risk perceptions downwards. We conclude the paper by discussing the public policy issues that stem from having risk perceptions of e-cigarette relative to combustible cigarettes remain at these elevated levels where a substantial portion of consumers believe that e-cigarettes are more harmful than cigarettes.

Does e-cigarette advertising encourage adult smokers to quit?

We provide the first causal evidence on whether e-cigarette advertising on television and in magazines encourages adult smokers to quit. We find the answer to be yes for TV advertising but no for magazine advertising. Our results indicate that a policy banning TV advertising of e-cigs would have reduced the number of smokers who quit in the recent past by approximately 3%. If the FDA were not considering regulations and mandates, e-cig ads might have reached the number of nicotine replacement therapy TV ads during that period. That would have increased the number of smokers who quit by around 10%.

Cost-effectiveness of a community-based cardiovascular disease prevention intervention in medically underserved rural areas.

BACKGROUND: Rural women experience health disparities in terms of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk compared to urban women. Cost-effective CVD-prevention programs are needed for this population. The objective of this study was to conduct cost analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of the Strong Hearts, Healthy Communities (SHHC) program compared to a control program in terms of change in CVD risk factors, including body weight and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). METHODS: Sixteen medically underserved rural towns in Montana and New York were randomly assigned to SHHC, a six-month twice-weekly experiential learning lifestyle program focused predominantly on diet and physical activity behaviors (n = 101), or a monthly healthy lifestyle education-only control program (n = 93). Females who were sedentary, overweight or obese, and aged 40 years or older were enrolled. The cost analysis calculated the total and per participant resource costs as well as participants' costs for the SHHC and control programs. In the intermediate health outcomes CEAs, the incremental costs were compared to the incremental changes in the outcomes. The QALY CEA compares the incremental costs and effectiveness of a national SHHC intervention for a hypothetical cohort of 2.2 million women compared to the status quo alternative. RESULTS: The resource cost of SHHC was $775 per participant. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from the payer's perspective was $360 per kg of weight loss. Over a 10-year time horizon, to avert per QALY lost SHHC is estimated to cost $238,271 from the societal perspective, but only $62,646 from the healthcare sector perspective. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses show considerable uncertainty in the estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. CONCLUSIONS: A national SHHC intervention is likely to be cost-effective at willingness-to-pay thresholds based on guidelines for federal regulatory impact analysis, but may not be at commonly used lower threshold values. However, it is possible that program costs in rural areas are higher than previously studied programs in more urban areas, due to a lack of staff and physical activity resources as well as  availability for partnerships with existing organizations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02499731 , registered on July 16, 2015.

Economic Approaches to Estimating Benefits of Regulations Affecting Addictive Goods.

The question of how to evaluate lost consumer surplus in benefit-cost analyses has been contentious. There are clear health benefits of regulations that curb consumption of goods with health risks, such as tobacco products and foods high in fats, calories, sugar, and sodium. Yet, if regulations cause consumers to give up goods they like, the health benefits they experience may be offset by some utility loss, which benefit-cost analyses of regulations need to take into account. This paper lays out the complications of measuring benefits of regulations aiming to curb consumption of addictive and habitual goods, rooted in the fact that consumers' observed demand for such goods may not be in line with their true preferences. Focusing on the important case of tobacco products, the paper describes four possible approaches for estimating benefits when consumers' preferences may not be aligned with their behavior, and identifies one as having the best feasibility for use in applied benefit-cost analyses in the near term.

The effect of potential electronic nicotine delivery system regulations on nicotine product selection.

AIMS: To estimate the effect of potential regulations of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) among adult smokers, including increasing taxes, reducing flavor availability and adding warning labels communicating various levels of risk. DESIGN: We performed a discrete choice experiment (DCE) among a national sample of 1200 adult smokers. We examined heterogeneity in policy responses by age, cigarette quitting interest and current ENDS use. Our experiment overlapped January 2015 by design, providing exogenous variation in cigarette quitting interest from New Year resolutions. SETTING: KnowledgePanel, an online panel of recruited respondents. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1200 adult smokers from the United States. MEASUREMENTS: Hypothetical purchase choice of cigarettes, nicotine replacement therapy and a disposable ENDS. FINDINGS: Increasing ENDS prices from $3 to $6 was associated with a 13.6 percentage point reduction in ENDS selection (P < 0.001). Restricting flavor availability in ENDS to tobacco and menthol was associated with a 2.1 percentage point reduction in ENDS selection (P < 0.001). The proposed Food and Drug Administration (FDA) warning label was associated with a 1.1 percentage point reduction in ENDS selection (P < 0.05) and the MarkTen warning label with a 5.1 percentage point reduction (P < 0.001). We estimated an ENDS price elasticity of -1.8 (P < 0.001) among adult smokers. Statistically significant interaction terms (P < 0.001) imply that price responsiveness was higher among adult smokers 18-24 years of age, smokers who have vaped over the last month and smokers with above the median quitting interest. Young adult smokers were 3.7 percentage points more likely to choose ENDS when multiple flavors were available than older adults (P < 0.001). Young adult smokers and those with above the median cigarette quitting interest were also more likely to reduce cigarette selection and increase ENDS selection in January 2015 (P < 0.001), potentially in response to New Year's resolutions to quit smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Increased taxes, a proposed US Food and Drug Administration warning label for electronic nicotine delivery systems and a more severe warning label may discourage adult smokers from switching to electronic nicotine delivery systems. Reducing the availability of flavors may reduce ENDS use by young adult smokers.

Cigarette Taxes and Older Adult Smoking: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study.

In this study, we use the Health and Retirement Study to test whether older adult smokers, defined as those 50 years and older, respond to cigarette tax increases. Our preferred specifications show that older adult smokers respond modestly to tax increases: a $1.00 (131.6%) tax increase leads to a 3.8-5.2% reduction in cigarettes smoked per day (implied tax elasticity = -0.03 to -0.04). We identify heterogeneity in tax elasticity across demographic groups as defined by sex, race/ethnicity, education, and marital status and by smoking intensity and level of addictive stock. These findings have implications for public health policy implementation in an aging population.

Excise tax avoidance: the case of state cigarette taxes.

We conduct an applied welfare economics analysis of cigarette tax avoidance. We develop an extension of the standard formula for the optimal Pigouvian corrective tax to incorporate the possibility that consumers avoid the tax by making purchases in nearby lower tax jurisdictions. To provide a key parameter for our formula, we estimate a structural endogenous switching regression model of border-crossing and cigarette prices. In illustrative calculations, we find that for many states, after taking into account tax avoidance the optimal tax is at least 20% smaller than the standard Pigouvian tax that simply internalizes external costs. Our empirical estimate that tax avoidance strongly responds to the price differential is the main reason for this result. We also use our results to examine the benefits of replacing avoidable state excise taxes with a harder-to-avoid federal excise tax on cigarettes.

An economic evaluation of the expanded food and nutrition education program.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the New York State Expanded Food and Nutrition Education Program using economic methodology. DESIGN: Data were collected by nutrition educators in a pretest, posttest design with an epidemiological modeling approach to assess costs and estimate potential health benefits of the state program. SETTING: Cooperative Extension, 35 counties. PARTICIPANTS: 5730 low-income participants. INTERVENTION: Series of 6 or more food and nutrition lessons. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost (program and participant); health benefits in quality adjusted life years (QALYs); and monetized benefits: society's willingness to pay for QALYs, and benefits of avoiding or delaying health care costs and loss of productivity. ANALYSIS: Cost-effectiveness estimated from behavior change and QALY weights. Cost-benefit ratios estimated from costs and monetized benefits. Sensitivity analyses provided ranges where lack of agreement exists around parameters' values. RESULTS: Cost was $892/graduate. Cost-effectiveness was 245 QALYs saved, at $20863/QALY (sensitivity 42-935 QALYs, $5467-$130311 per QALY). Societal willingness to pay benefit-to-cost ratio was $9.58:$1.00 (sensitivity $1.44-$41.92:$1:00); narrow governmental benefit-to-cost ratio was $0.82:$1.00 (sensitivity $0.08-$4.33:$1:00). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Outcome data indicate that food and nutrition behavior changes resulting from the Program are likely to improve future health and reduce health care costs. Cost-effectiveness is estimated to be as great as for many current health interventions.

Care-giver advice as a preventive measure for drinking during pregnancy: zeros, categorical outcome responses, and endogeneity.

We conduct an empirical investigation of the impact of prenatal care-giver advice on alcohol consumption by pregnant women. In the design of the model and estimator, we pay particular attention to three aspects of the data. First, a large proportion of pregnant women do not drink at all. To accommodate this aspect of the sample we base the essential formulation of the model on the modified version of the two-part approach of Duan et al. (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 1983; 1: 115-126.) suggested by Mullahy (Journal of Health Economics 1998; 17: 247-281.). Second, in the survey that we analyze (the 1988 National Maternal and Infant Health Survey - NMIHS), respondents were only required to report their consumption up to a specified range of values (e.g. 1-2 drinks per week, 2-5 drinks per week, and so on). For this reason, the model is cast in the grouped regression framework of Stewart (Review of Economic Studies 1983; 50: 141-149.). Third, the binary physician advice variable is likely to be endogenous and the econometric specification explicitly accounts for this possibility. To summarize the results, we find that failing to account for endogeneity leads to the counterintuitive conclusion that advice has a positive and statistically significant influence on drinking during pregnancy. When the model is extended to allow for potential endogeneity, we find that advice has a negative and statistically significant impact.

Youth smoking, cigarette prices, and anti-smoking sentiment.

In this paper, we develop a new direct measure of state anti-smoking sentiment and merge it with micro-data on youth smoking in 1992 and 2000. The empirical results from the cross-sectional models show two consistent patterns: after controlling for differences in state anti-smoking sentiment, the price of cigarettes has a weak and statistically, insignificant influence on smoking participation, and state anti-smoking sentiment appears to have a potentially important influence on youth smoking participation. The cross-sectional results are corroborated by results from the discrete time hazard models of smoking initiation that include state-fixed effects. However, there is evidence of price-responsiveness in the conditional cigarette demand by youth and young adult smokers.