Association between SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Select Symptoms and Conditions 31 to 150 Days After Testing among Children and Adults

BackgroundAn increasing number of studies have described new and persistent symptoms and conditions as potential post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC). However, it remains unclear whether certain symptoms or conditions occur more frequently among persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with those never infected with SARS-CoV-2. We compared the occurrence of specific COVID-associated symptoms and conditions as potential PASC 31 to 150 days following a SARS-CoV-2 test among adults ([≥]20 years) and children (<20 years) with positive and negative test results documented in the electronic health records (EHRs) of institutions participating in PCORnet, the National Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network. Methods and FindingsThis study included 3,091,580 adults (316,249 SARS-CoV-2 positive; 2,775,331 negative) and 675,643 children (62,131 positive; 613,512 negative) who had a SARS-CoV-2 laboratory test (nucleic acid amplification or rapid antigen) during March 1, 2020-May 31, 2021 documented in their EHR. We identified hospitalization status in the day prior through the 16 days following the SARS-CoV-2 test as a proxy for the severity of COVID-19. We used logistic regression to calculate the odds of receiving a diagnostic code for each symptom outcome and Cox proportional hazard models to calculate the risk of being newly diagnosed with each condition outcome, comparing those with a SARS-CoV-2 positive test to those with a negative test. After adjustment for baseline covariates, hospitalized adults and children with a positive test had increased odds of being diagnosed with [≥]1 symptom (adults: adjusted odds ratio[aOR], 1.17[95% CI, 1.11-1.23]; children: aOR, 1.18[95% CI, 1.08-1.28]) and shortness of breath (adults: aOR, 1.50[95% CI, 1.38-1.63]; children: aOR, 1.40[95% CI, 1.15-1.70]) 31-150 days following a SARS-CoV-2 test compared with hospitalized individuals with a negative test. Hospitalized adults with a positive test also had increased odds of being diagnosed with [≥]3 symptoms (aOR, 1.16[95% CI, 1.08 - 1.26]) and fatigue (aOR, 1.12[95% CI, 1.05 - 1.18]) compared with those testing negative. The risks of being newly diagnosed with type 1 or type 2 diabetes (aHR, 1.25[95% CI, 1.17-1.33]), hematologic disorders (aHR, 1.19[95% CI, 1.11-1.28]), and respiratory disease (aHR, 1.44[95% CI, 1.30-1.60]) were higher among hospitalized adults with a positive test compared with those with a negative test. Non-hospitalized adults with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test had higher odds of being diagnosed with fatigue (aOR, 1.11[95% CI, 1.05-1.16]) and shortness of breath (aOR, 1.22[95% CI, 1.15-1.29]), and had an increased risk (aHR, 1.12[95% CI, 1.02-1.23]) of being newly diagnosed with hematologic disorders (i.e., venous thromboembolism and pulmonary embolism) 31-150 days following SARS-CoV-2 test compared with those testing negative. The risk of being newly diagnosed with certain conditions, such as mental health conditions and neurological disorders, was lower among patients with a positive viral test relative to those with a negative viral test. ConclusionsPatients with SARS-CoV-2 infection were at higher risk of being diagnosed with certain symptoms and conditions, particularly fatigue, respiratory symptoms, and hematological abnormalities, after acute infection. The risk was highest among adults hospitalized after SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 disease incidence independent of comorbidities, among people with HIV in the US

ObjectivesTo define the incidence of clinically-detected COVID-19 in people with HIV (PWH) in the US and evaluate how racial and ethnic disparities, comorbidities, and HIV-related factors contribute to risk of COVID-19. DesignObservational study within the CFAR Network of Integrated Clinical Systems cohort in 7 cities during 2020. MethodsWe calculated cumulative incidence rates of COVID-19 diagnosis among PWH in routine care by key characteristics including race/ethnicity, current and lowest CD4 count, and geographic area. We evaluated risk factors for COVID-19 among PWH using relative risk regression models adjusted with disease risk scores. ResultsAmong 16,056 PWH in care, of whom 44.5% were Black, 12.5% were Hispanic, with a median age of 52 years (IQR 40-59), 18% had a current CD4 count < 350, including 7% < 200; 95.5% were on antiretroviral therapy, and 85.6% were virologically suppressed. Overall in 2020, 649 PWH were diagnosed with COVID-19 for a rate of 4.94 cases per 100 person-years. The cumulative incidence of COVID-19 was 2.4-fold and 1.7-fold higher in Hispanic and Black PWH respectively, than non-Hispanic White PWH. In adjusted analyses, factors associated with COVID-19 included female sex, Hispanic or Black identity, lowest historical CD4 count <350 (proxy for CD4 nadir), current low CD4/CD8 ratio, diabetes, and obesity. ConclusionsOur results suggest that the presence of structural racial inequities above and beyond medical comorbidities increased the risk of COVID-19 among PWH PWH with immune exhaustion as evidenced by lowest historical CD4 or current low CD4:CD8 ratio had greater risk of COVID-19.

Factors associated with severity of COVID-19 disease in a multicenter cohort of people with HIV in the United States, March-December 2020

BackgroundUnderstanding the spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 disease in people with HIV (PWH) is critical to provide clinical guidance and implement risk-reduction strategies. ObjectiveTo characterize COVID-19 in PWH in the United States and identify predictors of disease severity. DesignObservational cohort study. SettingGeographically diverse clinical sites in the CFAR Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) ParticipantsAdults receiving HIV care through December 31, 2020. MeasurementsCOVID-19 cases and severity (hospitalization, intensive care, death). ResultsOf 16,056 PWH in care, 649 were diagnosed with COVID-19 between March-December 2020. Case fatality was 2%; 106 (16.3%) were hospitalized and 12 died. PWH with current CD4 count <350 cells/mm3 (aRR 2.68; 95%CI 1.93-3.71; P<.001) or lowest recorded CD4 count <200 (aRR 1.67; 95%CI 1.18-2.36; P<.005) had greater risk of hospitalization. HIV viral load suppression and antiretroviral therapy (ART) status were not associated with hospitalization, although the majority of PWH were suppressed (86%). Black PWH were 51% more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 compared to other racial/ethnic groups (aRR 1.51; 95%CI 1.04-2.19, P=.03). Chronic kidney disease (CKD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and increased cardiovascular and hepatic fibrosis risk scores were associated with higher risk of hospitalization. PWH who were older, not on ART, with current CD4 <350, diabetes, and CKD were overrepresented amongst PWH who required intubation or died. LimitationsUnable to compare directly to persons without HIV; underestimate of total COVID-19 cases. ConclusionsPWH with CD4 <350 cells/mm3, low CD4/CD8 ratio, and history of CD4 <200, have a clear excess risk of severe COVID-19, after accounting for comorbidities also associated with severe outcomes. PWH with these risk factors should be prioritized for COVID-19 vaccination, early treatment, and monitored closely for worsening illness.

Estimating the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on HIV incidence and mortality among men who have sex with men in the United States: a modelling study

BackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, gay and other men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States (US) report similar or fewer sexual partners and reduced HIV testing and care access. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use has declined. We estimated the potential impact of COVID-19 on HIV incidence and mortality among US MSM. MethodsWe used a calibrated HIV transmission model for MSM in Baltimore, Maryland, and available data on COVID-19-related disruptions to predict impacts of data-driven reductions in sexual partners(0%,25%,50%), condom use(5%), HIV testing(20%), viral suppression(10%), PrEP initiations(72%), PrEP use(9%) and ART initiations(50%), exploring different disruption durations and magnitudes. We estimated the median (95% credible interval) change in cumulative new HIV infections and deaths among MSM over one and five years, compared with a scenario without COVID-19-related disruptions. FindingsA six-month 25% reduction in sexual partners among Baltimore MSM, without HIV service changes, could reduce new HIV infections by 12{middle dot}2%(11{middle dot}7,12{middle dot}8%) and 3{middle dot}0%(2{middle dot}6,3{middle dot}4%) over one and five years, respectively. In the absence of changes in sexual behaviour, the six-month data-driven disruptions to condom use, testing, viral suppression, PrEP initiations, PrEP use and ART initiations combined were predicted to increase new HIV infections by 10{middle dot}5%(5{middle dot}8,16{middle dot}5%) over one year, and by 3{middle dot}5%(2{middle dot}1,5{middle dot}4%) over five years. A 25% reduction in partnerships offsets the negative impact of these combined service disruptions on new HIV infections (overall reduction 3{middle dot}9%(-1{middle dot}0,7{middle dot}4%), 0{middle dot}0%(-1{middle dot}4,0{middle dot}9%) over one, five years, respectively), but not on HIV deaths (corresponding increases 11{middle dot}0%(6{middle dot}2,17{middle dot}7%), 2{middle dot}6%(1{middle dot}5,4{middle dot}3%)). The predicted impacts of reductions in partnerships or viral suppression doubled if they lasted 12 months or if disruptions were twice as large. InterpretationMaintaining access to ART and adherence support is of the utmost importance to minimise excess HIV-related mortality due to COVID-19 restrictions in the US, even if accompanied by reductions in sexual partnerships. FundingNIH Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSThe COVID-19 pandemic and responses to it have disrupted HIV prevention and treatment services and led to changes in sexual risk behaviour in the United States, but the overall potential impact on HIV transmission and HIV-related mortality is not known. We searched PubMed for articles documenting COVID-related disruptions to HIV prevention and treatment and changes in sexual risk behaviour in the United States, published between 1st January and 7th October 2020, with no language restrictions, using the terms COVID* AND (HIV OR AIDS) AND ("United States" OR US). We identified three cross-sectional surveys assessing changes in sexual risk behaviour among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States, one finding a reduction, one a slight increase, and one no change in partner numbers during COVID-19 restrictions. Two of these studies also found reductions in reported HIV testing, HIV care and/or access to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among MSM due to COVID-19. A separate study from a San Francisco clinic found declines in viral suppression among its clients during lockdown. We searched PubMed for articles estimating the impact of COVID-related disruptions on HIV transmission and mortality published between 1st January 2020 and 12th October 2020, with no language restrictions, using the following terms: COVID* AND model* AND (HIV OR AIDS). We identified two published studies which had used mathematical modelling to estimate the impact of hypothetical COVID-19-related disruptions to HIV programmes on HIV-related deaths and/or new HIV infections in Africa, another published study using modelling to estimate the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions and linked HIV and SARS-CoV-2 testing on new HIV infections in six cities in the United States, and a pre-print reporting modelling of the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in Atlanta, United States. None of these studies were informed by data on the size of these disruptions. The two African studies and the Atlanta study assessed the impact of disruptions to different healthcare disruptions separately, and all found that the greatest negative impacts on new HIV infections and/or deaths would arise from interruptions to antiretroviral therapy. They all found smaller effects on HIV-related mortality and/or incidence from other healthcare disruptions, including HIV testing, PrEP use and condom supplies. The United States study assessing the impact of linked HIV and SARS-CoV-2 testing estimated that this could substantially reduce HIV incidence. Added value of this studyWe used mathematical modelling to derive estimates of the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions on HIV incidence and mortality among MSM in the United States, directly informed by data from the United States on disruptions to HIV testing, antiretroviral therapy and pre-exposure prophylaxis services and reported changes in sexual risk behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also assessed the impact of an HIV testing campaign during COVID-19 lockdown. Implications of all the available evidenceIn the United States, maintaining access to antiretroviral therapy and adherence support for both existing and new users will be crucial to minimize excess HIV-related deaths arising from the COVID-19 pandemic among men who have sex with men. While reductions in sexual risk behaviour may offset increases in new HIV infections arising from disruptions to HIV prevention and treatment services, this will not offset the additional HIV-related deaths which are also predicted to occur. There are mixed findings on the impact of an HIV testing campaign among US MSM during COVID-19 lockdown. Together, these studies highlight the importance of maintaining effective HIV treatment provision during the COVID-19 pandemic.