Cash outs during in-play sports betting: Who, why, and what it reveals.

Cashing out is a popular feature of modern 'in-play' sports betting that allows sports bettors to withdraw a bet before the sporting event on which the bet was placed is finalized. Previous studies have shown that use of the cash out feature is positively related to problem gambling symptomatology. However, little is known about demographic and psychological characteristics of in-play sports bettors who use the cash out feature, or their motivations for use. To fill this knowledge gap, we recruited 224 adults (18 + years) from Ontario who engaged in in-play sports betting in the past three months. Participants completed self-report measures of psychological and gambling-related variables. Participants also provided qualitative responses for their motivations for using the cash out feature. Approximately half (51.8 %) of the participants reported using the cash out feature. No statistically significant demographic differences were found between participants who used and did not use the cash out feature. Participants who used the feature (compared to those who did not) reported higher problematic alcohol and cannabis use, feelings of depression, anxiety, and stress, and were motivated to gamble to make money. The primary reasons for cashing out were to access money immediately, to cut losses, and because cashing out felt like a less risky option. The current findings shed light on underlying psychological vulnerabilities associated with individuals who use the cash out feature, which can inform initiatives to reduce the harms associated with this popular feature of sports betting.

Do trauma cue exposure and/or PTSD symptom severity intensify selective approach bias toward cannabis cues in regular cannabis users with trauma histories?

Trauma cue-elicited activation of automatic cannabis-related cognitive biases are theorized to contribute to comorbid posttraumatic stress disorder and cannabis use disorder. This phenomenon can be studied experimentally by combining the trauma cue reactivity paradigm (CRP) with cannabis-related cognitive processing tasks. In this study, we used a computerized cannabis approach-avoidance task (AAT) to assess automatic cannabis (vs. neutral) approach bias following personalized trauma (vs. neutral) CRP exposure. We hypothesized that selective cannabis (vs. neutral) approach biases on the AAT would be larger among participants with higher PTSD symptom severity, particularly following trauma (vs. neutral) cue exposure. We used a within-subjects experimental design with a continuous between-subjects moderator (PTSD symptom severity). Participants were exposed to both a trauma and neutral CRP in random order, completing a cannabis AAT (cannabis vs. neutral stimuli) following each cue exposure. Current cannabis users with histories of psychological trauma (n = 50; 34% male; mean age = 37.8 years) described their most traumatic lifetime event, and a similarly-detailed neutral event, according to an established interview protocol that served as the CRP. As hypothesized, an AAT stimulus type x PTSD symptom severity interaction emerged (p = .042) with approach bias greater to cannabis than neutral stimuli for participants with higher (p = .006), but not lower (p = .36), PTSD symptom severity. Contrasting expectations, the stimulus type x PTSD symptoms effect was not intensified by trauma cue exposure (p = .19). Selective cannabis approach bias may be chronically activated in cannabis users with higher PTSD symptom severity and may serve as an automatic cognitive mechanism to help explain PTSD-CUD co-morbidity.

A Pragmatic Randomized Trial Comparing Surgical Clipping and Endovascular Treatment of Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Surgical clipping and endovascular treatment are commonly used in patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms. We compared the safety and efficacy of the 2 treatments in a randomized trial. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Clipping or endovascular treatments were randomly allocated to patients with one or more 3- to 25-mm unruptured intracranial aneurysms judged treatable both ways by participating physicians. The study hypothesized that clipping would decrease the incidence of treatment failure from 13% to 4%, a composite primary outcome defined as failure of aneurysm occlusion, intracranial hemorrhage during follow-up, or residual aneurysms at 1 year, as adjudicated by a core lab. Safety outcomes included new neurologic deficits following treatment, hospitalization of >5 days, and overall morbidity and mortality (mRS > 2) at 1 year. There was no blinding. RESULTS: Two hundred ninety-one patients were enrolled from 2010 to 2020 in 7 centers. The 1-year primary outcome, ascertainable in 290/291 (99%) patients, was reached in 13/142 (9%; 95% CI, 5%-15%) patients allocated to surgery and in 28/148 (19%; 95% CI, 13%-26%) patients allocated to endovascular treatments (relative risk: 2.07; 95% CI, 1.12-3.83; P = .021). Morbidity and mortality (mRS >2) at 1 year occurred in 3/143 and 3/148 (2%; 95% CI, 1%-6%) patients allocated to surgery and endovascular treatments, respectively. Neurologic deficits (32/143, 22%; 95% CI, 16%-30% versus 19/148, 12%; 95% CI, 8%-19%; relative risk: 1.74; 95% CI, 1.04-2.92; P = .04) and hospitalizations beyond 5 days (69/143, 48%; 95% CI, 40%-56% versus 12/148, 8%; 95% CI, 5%-14%; relative risk: 0.18; 95% CI, 0.11-0.31; P < .001) were more frequent after surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical clipping is more effective than endovascular treatment of unruptured intracranial aneurysms in terms of the frequency of the primary outcome of treatment failure. Results were mainly driven by angiographic results at 1 year.

Getting high to cope with COVID-19: Modelling the associations between cannabis demand, coping motives, and cannabis use and problems.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, people may use substances like cannabis for enhancement or coping purposes. Behavioral economic demand for a substance is a key determinant of its use and misuse and can be measured via hypothetical purchase tasks. Previous research suggests that motivations to use a substance play a mediational role between elevated substance demand and problems, but comparable mechanistic research has yet to be done in the COVID-19 context and on the effects of cannabis demand on cannabis use patterns. Participants (n = 137) were recruited via the online crowdsourcing platform Prolific. Participants completed measures of cannabis use and problems, motivations for cannabis use, and the Marijuana Purchase Task. Two indices of demand, Persistence (i.e., sensitivity to increasing cost of cannabis) and Amplitude (i.e., consumption of cannabis at unrestricted cost), were related to increased cannabis problems via the use motive of coping during the COVID-19 pandemic. This model did not support the mediational role of enhancement motives. Those with increased cannabis demand who tend to use cannabis to cope are at increased risk of experiencing negative cannabis-related consequences during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Repeat resection in recurrent glioblastoma (3rGBM) Trial: A randomized care trial.

BACKGROUND: The prognosis for patients with recurrent glioblastoma (GBM) is dismal, and the question of repeat surgery at time of recurrence is common. Re-operation in the management of these patients remains controversial, as there is no randomized evidence of benefit. An all-inclusive pragmatic care trial is needed to evaluate the role of repeat resection. METHODS: 3rGBM is a multicenter, pragmatic, prospective, parallel-group randomized care trial, with 1:1 allocation to repeat resection or standard care with no repeat resection. To test the hypothesis that repeat resection can improve overall survival by at least 3 months (from 6 to 9 months), 250 adult patients with prior resection of pathology-proven glioblastoma for whom the attending surgeon believes repeat resection may improve quality survival will be enrolled. A surrogate measure of quality of life, the number of days outside of hospital/nursing/palliative care facility, will also be compared. Centers are invited to participate without financial compensation and without contracts. Clinicians may apply to local authorities to approve an investigator-led in-house trial, using a common protocol, web-based randomization platform, and simple standardized case report forms. DISCUSSION: The 3rGBM trial is a modern transparent care research framework with no additional risks, tests, or visits other than what patients would encounter in normal care. The burden of proof remains on repeat surgical management of recurrent GBM, because this management has yet to be shown beneficial. The trial is designed to help patients and surgeons manage the uncertainty regarding optimal care. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov. Unique identifier: NCT04838782.

Transcranial Doppler Velocities and Angiographic Vasospasm after SAH: A Diagnostic Accuracy Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: After aneurysmal SAH, transcranial Doppler is commonly used to monitor cerebral vasospasm. The diagnostic accuracy of transcranial Doppler flow velocity values in detecting angiographic vasospasm in patients requiring urgent endovascular intervention has not been established. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of a consecutive series of patients with aneurysmal SAH who underwent transcranial Doppler (index test) within 24 hours of conventional angiography (reference test). The judgment of 33%, 50%, and 66% degree of vessel narrowing on angiography was independently established by multiple neuroendovascular clinicians. Vessel-specific per-segment and per-patient transcranial Doppler velocities were studied using receiver operating characteristic curves, the Youden index, and minimal acceptable sensitivity models. Optimal mean flow-velocity thresholds were explored to calculate sensitivity and specificity using a per-patient judgment of vasospasm of at least 50% angiographic narrowing in any large arterial segment except A1. RESULTS: In 221 patients, vasospasm was found in 15%, 8%, and 4% of arteries when the degree of reference angiographic luminal narrowing was 33%, 50%, and 66%, respectively. Mean flow velocities were significantly higher in vasospastic segments (P = . 001), but per-segment exploratory analyses yielded unsound mean flow velocity thresholds. The Youden and minimal acceptable sensitivity models proposed mean flow velocity thresholds of approximately 160 cm/s for the anterior circulation and 80 cm/s for the posterior circulation in the per-patient diagnosis of angiographic vasospasm (≥50%), yielding a sensitivity of 80%-90% (95% CI, 0.77-0.96), but with a corresponding specificity of 50% (95% CI, 0.40-0.56). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, a threshold transcranial Doppler mean flow-velocity value that would accurately diagnose ≥50% angiographic vasospasm remained elusive.

Reliability of the Diagnosis of Cerebral Vasospasm Using Catheter Cerebral Angiography: A Systematic Review and Inter- and Intraobserver Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Conventional angiography is the benchmark examination to diagnose cerebral vasospasm, but there is limited evidence regarding its reliability. Our goals were the following: 1) to systematically review the literature on the reliability of the diagnosis of cerebral vasospasm using conventional angiography, and 2) to perform an agreement study among clinicians who perform endovascular treatment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Articles reporting a classification system on the degree of cerebral vasospasm on conventional angiography were systematically searched, and agreement studies were identified. We assembled a portfolio of 221 cases of patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage and asked 17 raters with different backgrounds (radiology, neurosurgery, or neurology) and experience (junior ≤10 and senior >10 years) to independently evaluate cerebral vasospasm in 7 vessel segments using a 3-point scale and to evaluate, for each case, whether findings would justify endovascular treatment. Nine raters took part in the intraobserver reliability study. RESULTS: The systematic review showed a very heterogeneous literature, with 140 studies using 60 different nomenclatures and 21 different thresholds to define cerebral vasospasm, and 5 interobserver studies reporting a wide range of reliability (κ = 0.14-0.87). In our study, only senior raters reached substantial agreement (κ ≥ 0.6) on vasospasm of the supraclinoid ICA, M1, and basilar segments and only when assessments were dichotomized (presence or absence of ≥50% narrowing). Agreement on whether to proceed with endovascular management of vasospasm was only fair (κ ≤ 0.4). CONCLUSIONS: Research on cerebral vasospasm would benefit from standardization of definitions and thresholds. Dichotomized decisions by experienced readers are required for the reliable angiographic diagnosis of cerebral vasospasm.

Niche differentiation of ammonia-oxidising archaea (AOA) and bacteria (AOB) in response to paper and pulp mill effluent.

Sediment organic loading has been shown to affect estuarine nitrification and denitrification, resulting in changes to sediment biogeochemistry and nutrient fluxes detrimental to estuarine health. This study examined the effects of organic loading on nutrient fluxes and microbial communities in sediments receiving effluent from a paper and pulp mill (PPM) by applying microcosm studies and molecular microbial ecology techniques. Three sites near the PPM outfall were compared to three control sites, one upstream and two downstream of the outfall. The control sites showed coupled nitrification-denitrification with minimal ammonia release from the sediment. In contrast, the impacted sites were characterised by nitrate uptake and substantial ammonia efflux from the sediments, consistent with a decoupling of nitrification and denitrification. Analysis of gene diversity demonstrated that the composition of nitrifier communities was not significantly different at the impacted sites compared to the control sites; however, analysis of gene abundance indicated that whilst there was no difference in total bacteria, total archaea or ammonia-oxidising archaea (AOA) abundance between the control and impacted sites, there was a significant reduction in ammonia-oxidising bacteria (AOB) at the impacted sites. The results of this study demonstrate an effect of organic loading on estuarine sediment biogeochemistry and highlight an apparent niche differentiation between AOA and AOB.

Fine-scale spatial and temporal variations in diets of the pipefish Stigmatopora nigra within seagrass patches.

Diets of the pipefish Stigmatopora nigra were analysed to determine if food availability was causing S. nigra to distribute according to habitat edge effects. Gut analysis found little difference in the diets of S. nigra at the edge and interior of seagrass patches, regardless of time of day or season. Fish diets did, however, vary with seagrass density: S. nigra in denser seagrass consumed more harpacticoid copepods and fewer planktonic copepods. The lack of difference in prey eaten by S. nigra at the edge and interior of patches suggests either that food was not determining S. nigra distribution patterns within patches or that differences in fish densities across patches meant that relative fish-prey densities were similar at edge and interior positions. Alternatively, any edge effects in diet might be masked by gradients in seagrass structure.

Effects of environmental tobacco smoke on perinatal outcomes: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effects of environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) on perinatal outcomes. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. POPULATION: Nonsmoking women with singleton gestations who delivered 1 April 2001-31 March 2009, identified through the Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial Perinatal Database. METHODS: Women who self-reported exposure to ETS were compared with those who reported no exposure. Univariate analyses and multivariate linear and logistic regression analyses (adjusting for maternal age, parity, partnered status, work status, level of education, body mass index, alcohol use, illicit drug use and gestational age) were performed and odds ratios(OR; or adjusted differences) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Birthweight, birth length, head circumference and stillbirth. Secondary outcomes included gestational age at delivery, preterm birth <37 and <34 weeks of gestation, prelabour rupture of membranes, Apgar score, endotracheal intubation for resuscitation, neonatal intensive care unit admission, congenital anomalies, respiratory distress syndrome, intraventricular haemorrhage, neonatal bacterial sepsis, jaundice and neonatal metabolic abnormalities. RESULTS: A total of 11,852 women were included: 1202(11.1%) exposed to ETS and 10,650 (89.9%) not exposed. Exposure to ETS was an independent risk factor for lower mean birthweight (-53.7 g, 95% CI -98.4 to -8.9 g), smaller head circumference (-0.24 cm, 95% CI -0.39 to -0.08 cm), shorter birth length (-0.29 cm, 95% CI -0.51 to -0.07 cm), stillbirth (OR 3.35, 95% CI 1.16-9.72, P = 0.026), and trends towards preterm birth <34 weeks (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.00-3.53, P = 0.05) and neonatal sepsis (OR 2.96, 95% CI 0.99-8.86). CONCLUSIONS: Exposure of nonsmoking pregnant women to ETS is associated with a number of adverse perinatal outcomes including lower birthweight, smaller head circumference and stillbirth, as well as shorter birth length. This information is important for women, their families and healthcare providers, and reinforces the continued need for increased public policy and education on prevention of exposure to ETS.

Phenotype-environment mismatches reduce connectivity in the sea.

The connectivity of marine populations is often surprisingly lower than predicted by the dispersal capabilities of propagules alone. Estimates of connectivity, moreover, do not always scale with distance and are sometimes counterintuitive. Population connectivity requires more than just the simple exchange of settlers among populations: it also requires the successful establishment and reproduction of exogenous colonizers. Marine organisms often disperse over large spatial scales, encountering very different environments and suffering extremely high levels of post-colonization mortality. Given the growing evidence that such selection pressures often vary over spatial scales that are much smaller than those of dispersal, we argue that selection will bias survival against exogenous colonizers. We call this selection against exogenous colonizers a phenotype-environment mismatch and argue that phenotype-environment mismatches represent an important barrier to connectivity in the sea. Crucially, these mismatches may operate independently of distance and thereby have the potential to explain the counterintuitive patterns of connectivity often seen in marine environments. We discuss how such mismatches might alter our understanding and management of marine populations.

Roles of larval supply and behavior in determining settlement of barnacles in a temperate mangrove forest.

Recruitment is often a major influence on the spatial distribution of populations of benthic marine invertebrates, but the contributions of different components of recruitment are not well known, with the added complication that the relative importance of various life-history processes may be scale-dependent. Previously, we have shown that over a large scale across a mangrove (Avicennia marina) forest in southeastern Australia, settlement of the barnacle Elminius covertus explained its patterns of recruitment, which in turn explained the distribution of adults on mangrove pneumatophores. Post-settlement mortality had little influence on this pattern. In contrast, small-scale vertical distributions of adult barnacles along individual pneumatophores were determined by the pattern of recruitment, which differed from the pattern of settlement, so post-settlement mortality determined the vertical patterns of adults.In this study, we tested whether larval supply and/or settlement behavior influence the observed settlement patterns of E. covertus across a forest (from seaward to landward zones). We also tested whether larval supply could explain the vertical settlement patterns along the pneumatophores. A pumping system was used to collect cypris larvae from seaward, mid and landward zones of a mangrove forest and an adjacent, unvegetated shore and from three heights above the sediment surface. We also used transplantation of wooden stakes bearing microbial films and barnacle recruits between horizontal zones of the forest to determine whether settlement was influenced by these films or recruits.Both cyprid supply and cyprid behavior were important factors in determining the patterns of settlement of E. covertus across the forest. Cyprid supply was a result of three-fold differences in immersion times of different (landward, mid and seaward) zones across the forest and a decrease in density of cyprids in the water column from the seaward zone of the forest to the landward sections. In the absence of mangroves immediately adjacent to the forest, there was no temporally consistent difference in cyprid density across the shore and even the differences in immersion time did not produce consistent differences in cyprid supply across the shore. Wooden substrata that had been immersed at seaward sections of the forest attracted consistently more settlers than substrata immersed initially at other sections of the forest and settlement could be induced beyond the normal distribution of adults of E. covertus by stakes transplanted from the seaward zone.The vertical settlement pattern could not be explained by the supply of cyprids, suggesting that larval behavior must determine the vertical settlement pattern.

Fibroblast growth factor 2 activation of stromal cell vascular endothelial growth factor expression and angiogenesis.

Angiogenesis is a key component of human cancer progression and metastasis. In an effort to recapitulate early events in tumor-induced angiogenesis, we have employed a subcutaneous Matrigel implant model using immunodeficient mice as hosts. Matrigel-containing fibroblast growth factor 2 (FGF-2; 1.2 microg/ml) induced stromal cell infiltration into the Matrigel/skin interface within 4 days and maximal neovascularization at 7 days. Cells staining positive for the endothelial cell marker, platelet-endothelial cell adhesion molecule 1 (PECAM-1), were present in neovessels and in isolated cells within the Matrigel matrix. Immunohistochemical analysis revealed high levels of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) deposited in the stromal interface present only in the FGF-2-containing but not in control Matrigel implants. VEGF expression was confirmed with in situ hybridization. High VEGF mRNA levels were observed in the infiltrating stromal cells but not in endothelial or endothelial precursors as defined by PECAM-1 staining. In vitro analysis of FGF-2-treated embryonic fibroblasts, Balb/c 3T3 cells, showed an induction of VEGF transcription, mRNA synthesis, and protein secretion as defined by transcriptional reporter, Northern blot, and ELISA assays. The FGF-2-induced VEGF expression was not dependent on select matrix adherence or signaling components because VEGF mRNA expression induced by FGF-2 was equally activated on serum, basement membrane, and fibronectin matrix substrates. Systemic application of anti-VEGF antibodies significantly repressed FGF-2-induced angiogenesis over control antibody by 88% (p < 0.001). These data support an FGF-2 angiogenic model that is dependent on endothelial cell activation, stromal cell infiltration, and VEGF expression by the infiltrating stromal cell population.

TCR Vbeta expression in the small bowel of patients with dermatitis herpetiformis and gluten sensitive enteropathy. Limited expression in dermatitis herpetiformis and treated asymptomatic gluten sensitive enteropathy.

Dermatitis herpetiformis (DH) is a blistering skin disease characterized by cutaneous deposits of IgA and an associated, most often asymptomatic, gluten sensitive enteropathy (GSE). Gluten sensitive enteropathy is also seen in patients that do not have skin disease or cutaneous IgA deposits, but do have significant gastrointestinal (GI) complaints. Patients with DH and with GSE without skin disease have similar small bowel morphologic changes and HLA associations and both the skin disease and the GI symptoms can be controlled by a gluten free diet. It is not known what factors allow almost all patients with DH to continue to eat gluten and not develop symptomatic gastrointestinal disease. We have examined the expression of the Vbeta T-cell receptor (TCR) in the small bowel of patients with DH (n=11) and of patients with both symptomatic (n=10) and asymptomatic (n=7) GSE without skin disease to determine if differences in the pattern of TCR Vbeta expression are associated with differences in the clinical manifestations of these diseases. TCR Vbeta expression was analyzed using RT-PCR from small bowel biopsies. Patients with DH and those with GSE without skin disease that were on a gluten free diet and asymptomatic were found to express 6.6 and 5.6 out of 20 Vbeta families respectively, with no single family preference. Examination of peripheral blood lymphocytes from these patients did not reveal any restriction of TCR Vbeta family expression. In contrast, patients with symptomatic GSE expressed 12.6 Vbeta families (P< 0.05), with no consistent preferential expression of any single Vbeta family between patients. Patients with DH, who are continuing to ingest wheat, show a more restricted pattern of TCR Vbeta utilization, similar to that of treated patients with GSE without skin disease, and significantly different from GSE without skin disease patients eating gluten. These findings suggest that the restricted nature of the TCR Vbeta expression may play a role in the different clinical manifestations of dermatitis herpetiformis and isolated gluten sensitive enteropathy.

Disclosing the truth: informed participation in the Antemortem Database Project for Survivors of Srebrenica.

This article describes a human rights investigation designed to identify bodies exhumed from mass graves in Srebrenica, Bosnia-Herzegovina and the psychological impact of participation on family members, most of whom believed the disappeared could still be alive. A community education intervention, conducted in both group and individual settings, was effective in helping families make an informed decision about participation. For informed participants, the psychological benefits outweighed any deleterious effects. The article concludes that fully disclosing the truth to potential participants, providing culturally and temporally sensitive psychosocial preparation, and securing informed consent are basic ethical and human rights principles that must be upheld at all times. Further studies are necessary to measure the impact of human rights activities of this nature on the survivor participants and implementers alike.

Identifying children at high risk for the development of essential hypertension.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Because blood pressure (BP) tracks from childhood to adulthood, some have recommended screening to identify children at high risk for the development of essential hypertension as adults. Others, however, have argued against this strategy because they believe that correlations between childhood and adulthood BP levels are too low. To address these issues, we considered prediction of adult BP from childhood levels. DESIGN: Cohort study with follow-up of participants from childhood to early adulthood. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We ascertained BP in 337 schoolchildren from East Boston, Mass., and reexamined 317 (94%) of them 8 to 12 years later, at ages 18 to 26 years. MEASUREMENTS AND DATA ANALYSIS: On each of several visits, 1 week apart (four for children, three for adults), we obtained three BP readings with a random-zero sphygmomanometer. To calculate correlation coefficients (tracking correlations) between childhood and adult BP, we assumed a multivariate normal distribution and used an iterative maximal likelihood approach in a longitudinal model. We then used these correlations in expressions for sensitivity and specificity of childhood BP as a screening test and for positive predictive value for adult BP above specified cutoff points. RESULTS: During the 8- to 12-year interval, tracking correlations, corrected for within-person variability and adjusted for age, sex, smoking, and medication and alcohol use, were 0.55 for systolic BP and 0.44 for diastolic BP. The corresponding positive predictive values indicated that, for example, the probability that a 20-year-old man's true systolic BP will be > 139 mm Hg (> 90th percentile) was 0.44, given that his observed average systolic BP at age 10 years was > 95th percentile (> 117 mm Hg). The sensitivity of a 10-year old boy's systolic BP > 95th percentile to detect systolic BP > 139 mm Hg 10 years later was 0.17. The specificity of his BP < 95th percentile at age 10 years to detect systolic BP < 139 mm Hg at age 20 years was 0.97. For diastolic BP, predictive values and sensitivities were somewhat lower. CONCLUSIONS: After correction for within-person variability, tracking correlations from childhood to early adulthood are higher than previously reported. However, the resulting sensitivities and predictive values for childhood BP as a screening test for adult BP are of only modest magnitude. These data call into question the usefulness of routine BP measurement to identify children at high risk for the development of essential hypertension.

Childhood blood pressure tracking correlations corrected for within-person variability.

The correlation coefficient between initial and subsequent blood pressure (BP) measurements is referred to as the tracking correlation. Childhood BP tracking correlations, although positive, have been considered too low to make accurate predictions for an individual. These correlations, however, can be raised substantially by averaging BP over multiple weekly visits in each year, which partially accounts for within-person variability. In a cohort of 333 school children, we measured BP 3 times on each of 4 successive weekly visits, in each of 4 consecutive years, using a random-zero sphygmomanometer. Approximately 90 per cent of subjects had data for one or more follow-up years, and 75 per cent of subjects who entered in the first year had data for all four years. With a model that allows estimation of correlations and that uses all available longitudinal data, we calculated tracking correlations completely corrected for within-person variability, the statistical equivalent of measuring BP on an infinite number (infinity) of visits and measurements per visit. Age-sex adjusted tracking correlations for 3 years of follow-up based on the means from 1,2,3,4, and infinity visits are, for systolic BP, 0.43, 0.56, 0.62, 0.66, and 0.73, respectively, and for diastolic BP, 0.20, 0.37, 0.46, 0.50, and 0.70, respectively. With longer follow-up, the use of corrected tracking correlations would allow determination of the maximal extent to which childhood BP can predict adult levels, and therefore the usefulness of screening to identify children at high risk of developing hypertension.

Baseline characteristics of participants in phase I of the Trials of Hypertension Prevention.

Phase I of the Trials of Hypertension Prevention was designed to test the effectiveness and safety of three life-style (weight loss, sodium restriction, and stress management) and four nutrition supplement (calcium, magnesium, potassium, and fish oil) interventions in reducing diastolic blood pressure (DBP) in persons with a high-normal blood pressure. A total of 2182 persons with a DBP between 80 and 89 mm Hg met the eligibility criteria for participation in phase I and were randomized to one of the active intervention or control treatment groups. Most were white (82%), male (70%), married (76%), nonsmoking (88%), college graduate (53%), full-time employees (91%). The average blood pressure prior to entry into the trial was 124.9 mm Hg systolic and 83.8 mm Hg diastolic. A variety of baseline observations, including sociodemographic characteristics, personal and family medical history, health habits, diet, and biologic measurements, were documented before randomization and compared among the seven active intervention and control groups. As might be expected in a randomized trial of this sample size, the distribution of measured baseline characteristics was virtually identical in the treated and control groups. Based on this finding and the knowledge that randomization procedures were implemented without deviation from the phase I protocol, it is probable that unknown potential confounders were also equally distributed at entry into the study. Given the achievement of high rates of follow-up, subsequent differences in blood pressure are unlikely to have been due to baseline differences between the active treatment and control groups, and can probably be attributed to effects of the active interventions.

Assessing the validity of childhood blood pressure screening: unbiased estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values.

Blood pressure measurement in childhood can be considered as a screening test for future blood pressure levels. Evaluating this test involves calculating sensitivities, specificities, and predictive values for a blood pressure measurement at an initial time for predicting underlying true blood pressure at a subsequent time. We demonstrate the use of childhood blood pressure tracking correlations that are corrected for within-person variability to calculate unbiased estimates of these test characteristics. In a cohort of 333 schoolchildren, we measured blood pressure on multiple visits in each of 4 successive years. Using these data for within-person variances and corrected tracking correlations, and U.S. population data for means and total variances, we tabulated positive predictive values, sensitivities, and specificities for the case of predicting a 9-year-old male's true systolic blood pressure 3 years later. For example, if a 9-year-old's average blood pressure from 4 visits is 115 mmHg, the probability of his true blood pressure being greater than 116 mmHg (90th percentile) at age 12 is 0.50. With longer follow-up, the use of predictive values, sensitivities, and specificities that incorporate corrected correlations should allow determination of the accuracy of predicting adult blood pressure from childhood values, and therefore the usefulness of screening children for those at high risk of developing hypertension.