Improved Indicators for Subnational Unmet Antiretroviral Therapy Need in the Health System: Updates to the Naomi Model in 2023.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying subnational need for antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV is challenging because people living with HIV (PLHIV) access health facilities in areas that may differ from their residence. We defined and demonstrated new indicators for PLHIV treatment needed to guide health system target setting and resource allocation. SETTING: Botswana. METHODS: We extended Naomi, a Bayesian small-area model for estimating district-level HIV indicators from national household survey and HIV service delivery data. We used model outputs for ART seeking probabilities in neighboring districts to define the "PLHIV (attending)" indicator representing the estimated number of PLHIV who would seek treatment at health facilities in a district, and "Untreated PLHIV attending" representing gaps in ART service provision. Botswana 2021 district HIV estimates were used to demonstrate new outputs and assess the sensitivity to uncertainty in district population sizes. RESULTS: Across districts of Botswana, estimated adult ART coverage in December 2021 ranged 90%-96%. In the capital city Gaborone, there were 50,400 resident PLHIV and 64,200 receiving ART, of whom 24% (95% CI: 20 to 32) were estimated to reside in neighboring districts. Applying ART attendance probabilities gave a "PLHIV attending" denominator of 68,300 and unmet treatment need of 4100 adults (95% CI: 3000 to 5500) for Gaborone health facilities. The facility-based "PLHIV attending" denominator was less-sensitive to fluctuations in district population size assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: New indicators provided more consistent targets for HIV service provision, but are limited by ART data quality. This challenge will increase as treatment coverage reaches high levels and treatment gaps are smaller.

Mortality Among Children Aged <5 Years Living with HIV Who Are Receiving Antiretroviral Treatment - U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, 28 Supported Countries and Regions, October 2020-September 2022.

Globally, children aged <5 years, including those living with HIV who are not receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART), experience disproportionately high mortality. Global mortality among children living with HIV aged <5 years receiving ART is not well described. This report compares mortality and related clinical measures among infants aged <1 year and children aged 1-4 years living with HIV with those among older persons aged 5-14, 15-49, and ≥50 years living with HIV receiving ART services at all clinical sites supported by the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief. During October 2020-September 2022, an average of 11,980 infants aged <1 year and 105,510 children aged 1-4 years were receiving ART each quarter; among these infants and children receiving ART, 586 (4.9%) and 2,684 (2.5%), respectively, were reported to have died annually. These proportions of infants and children who died ranged from four to nine times higher in infants aged <1 year, and two to five times higher in children aged 1-4 years, than the proportions of older persons aged ≥5 years receiving ART. Compared with persons aged ≥5 years living with HIV, the proportions of children aged <5 years living with HIV who experienced interruptions in treatment were also higher, and the proportions who had a documented HIV viral load result or a suppressed viral load were lower. Prioritizing and optimizing HIV and general health services for children aged <5 years living with HIV receiving ART, including those recommended in the WHO STOP AIDS Package, might help address these disproportionately poorer outcomes.