Sensory conflicts through short, discrete visual input manipulations: Identification of balance responses to varied input characteristics.

Human balance control relies on various sensory modalities, and conflict of sensory input may result in postural instability. Virtual reality (VR) technology allows to train balance under conflicting sensory information by decoupling visual from somatosensory and vestibular systems, creating additional demands on sensory reweighting for balance control. However, there is no metric for the design of visual input manipulations that can induce persistent sensory conflicts to perturb balance. This limits the possibilities to generate sustained sensory reweighting processes and design well-defined training approaches. This study aimed to investigate the effects that different onset characteristics, amplitudes and velocities of visual input manipulations may have on balance control and their ability to create persistent balance responses. Twenty-four young adults were recruited for the study. The VR was provided using a state-of-the-art head-mounted display and balance was challenged in two experiments by rotations of the visual scene in the frontal plane with scaled constellations of trajectories, amplitudes and velocities. Mean center of pressure speed was recorded and revealed to be greater when the visual input manipulation had an abrupt onset compared to a smooth onset. Furthermore, the balance response was greatest and most persistent when stimulus velocity was low and stimulus amplitude was large. These findings show clear dissociation in the state of the postural system for abrupt and smooth visual manipulation onsets with no indication of short-term adaption to abrupt manipulations with slow stimulus velocity. This augments our understanding of how conflicting visual information affect balance responses and could help to optimize the conceptualization of training and rehabilitation interventions.

National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a strong interest in forecasts of the short-term development of epidemiological indicators to inform decision makers. In this study we evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland for the period from January through April 2021. METHODS: We evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland. These were issued by 15 different forecasting models, run by independent research teams. Moreover, we study the performance of combined ensemble forecasts. Evaluation of probabilistic forecasts is based on proper scoring rules, along with interval coverage proportions to assess calibration. The presented work is part of a pre-registered evaluation study. RESULTS: We find that many, though not all, models outperform a simple baseline model up to four weeks ahead for the considered targets. Ensemble methods show very good relative performance. The addressed time period is characterized by rather stable non-pharmaceutical interventions in both countries, making short-term predictions more straightforward than in previous periods. However, major trend changes in reported cases, like the rebound in cases due to the rise of the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant in March 2021, prove challenging to predict. CONCLUSIONS: Multi-model approaches can help to improve the performance of epidemiological forecasts. However, while death numbers can be predicted with some success based on current case and hospitalization data, predictability of case numbers remains low beyond quite short time horizons. Additional data sources including sequencing and mobility data, which were not extensively used in the present study, may help to improve performance.

We compare forecasts of weekly case and death numbers for COVID-19 in Germany and Poland based on 15 different modelling approaches. These cover the period from January to April 2021 and address numbers of cases and deaths one and two weeks into the future, along with the respective uncertainties. We find that combining different forecasts into one forecast can enable better predictions. However, case numbers over longer periods were challenging to predict. Additional data sources, such as information about different versions of the SARS-CoV-2 virus present in the population, might improve forecasts in the future.

Sinusoidal Optic Flow Perturbations Reduce Transient but Not Continuous Postural Stability: A Virtual Reality-Based Study.

Optic flow perturbations induced by virtual reality (VR) are increasingly used in the rehabilitation of postural control and gait. Here, VR offers the possibility to decouple the visual from the somatosensory and vestibular system. By this means, it enables training under conflicting sensorimotor stimulation that creates additional demands on sensory reweighting and balance control. Even though current VR-interventions still lack a well-defined standardized metric to generate optic flow perturbations that can challenge balance in a repeatable manner, continuous oscillations of the VR are typically used as a rehabilitation tool. We therefore investigated if continuous sensory conflicts induced by optic flow perturbations can challenge the postural system sustainably. Eighteen young adults (m = 8, f = 10, age = 24.1 ± 2.0 yrs) were recruited for the study. The VR was provided using a state-of-the-art head-mounted display including the virtual replica of the real environment. After familiarization in quiet stance without and with VR, bipedal balance was perturbed by sinusoidal rotations of the visual scenery in the sagittal plane with an amplitude of 8° and a frequency of 0.2 Hz. Postural stability was quantified by mean center of mass speed derived from 3D-kinematics. A rmANOVA found increased postural instability only during the first perturbation cycle, i.e., the first 5 s. Succeeding the first perturbation cycle, visual afferents were downregulated to reduce the destabilizing influence of the sensory conflicts. In essence, only the transient beginning of sinusoidal oscillation alters balance compared to quiet standing. Therefore, continuous sinusoidal optic flow perturbations appear to be not suitable for balance training as they cannot trigger persisting sensory conflicts and hence challenge the postural system sustainably. Our study provides rationale for using unexpected and discrete optic flow perturbation paradigms to induce sustainable sensory conflicts.

Biomechanical agreement between different imitation jumps and hill jumps in ski jumping.

Even though the take-off in ski jumping is decisive, athletes only have a very limited number of training trials on the actual ski jump to practice under real ski jump conditions. Hence, various imitation jumps aiming to mimic the hill jump are performed during daily training. These imitation jumps should therefore mimic the kinematic pattern of hill jumps appropriately. This study aimed to identify imitation jumps that resemble hill jumps regarding four performance-related biomechanical criteria: maximal vertical take-off velocity, maximal knee extension velocity, maximal forward-directed angular momentum and anterior shift of the center of mass. Therefore, a three-dimensional analysis of the take-off during six different modalities of imitation jumps as well as hill jumps for validation was carried out in nine professional ski jumpers. Imitation jumps from a rolling platform show better agreement than stationary jumps and three out of the four parameters were best resembled via an imitation jump that included ski jumping boots. Thus, non-hill take-off training should be performed with complex imitation jumps to mimic the actual ski jump. Except for the vertical take-off velocity, we could identify one imitation jump type that is not statistically different to the hill. Consequently, the individual deficiencies of the athletes can be addressed and specifically trained using the appropriate imitation jump. These information about the similarity between imitation jumps and real hill jumps are highly relevant for trainers and athletes in order to effectively design their training programs.