Topological data analysis identifies distinct biomarker phenotypes during the inflammatory phase of COVID-19

OBJECTIVESThe relationships between baseline clinical phenotypes and the cytokine milieu of the peak inflammatory phase of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) are not yet well understood. We used Topological Data Analysis (TDA), a dimensionality reduction technique to identify patterns of inflammation associated with COVID-19 severity and clinical characteristics. DESIGNExploratory analysis from a multi-center prospective cohort study. SETTINGEight military hospitals across the United States between April 2020 and January 2021. PATIENTSAdult ([≥]18 years of age) SARS-CoV-2 positive inpatient and outpatient participants were enrolled with plasma samples selected from the putative inflammatory phase of COVID-19, defined as 15-28 days post symptom onset. INTERVENTIONSNone. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTSConcentrations of 12 inflammatory protein biomarkers were measured using a broad dynamic range immunoassay. TDA identified 3 distinct inflammatory protein expression clusters. Peak severity (outpatient, hospitalized, ICU admission or death), Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and body mass index (BMI) were evaluated with logistic regression for associations with each cluster. The study population (n=129, 33.3% female, median 41.3 years of age) included 77 outpatient, 31 inpatient, 16 ICU-level, and 5 fatal cases. Three distinct clusters were found that differed by peak disease severity (p <0.001), age (p <0.001), BMI (p<0.001), and CCI (p=0.001). CONCLUSIONSExploratory clustering methods can stratify heterogeneous patient populations and identify distinct inflammation patterns associated with comorbid disease, obesity, and severe illness due to COVID-19.

SARS-CoV-2 antibodies remain detectable 12 months after infection and antibody magnitude is associated with age and COVID-19 severity

ImportanceThe persistence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies may be a predictive correlate of protection for both natural infections and vaccinations. Identifying predictors of robust antibody responses is important to evaluate the risk of re-infection / vaccine failure and may be translatable to vaccine effectiveness. ObjectiveTo 1) determine the durability of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and neutralizing antibodies in subjects who experienced mild and moderate to severe COVID-19, and 2) to evaluate the correlation of age and IgG responses to both endemic human seasonal coronaviruses (HCoVs) and SARS-CoV-2 according to infection outcome. DesignLongitudinal serum samples were collected from PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 positive participants (U.S. active duty service members, dependents and military retirees, including a range of ages and demographics) who sought medical treatment at seven U.S. military hospitals from March 2020 to March 2021 and enrolled in a prospective observational cohort study. ResultsWe observed SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity in 100% of inpatients followed for six months (58/58) to one year (8/8), while we observed seroreversion in 5% (9/192) of outpatients six to ten months after symptom onset, and 18% (2/11) of outpatients followed for one year. Both outpatient and inpatient anti-SARS-CoV-2 binding-IgG responses had a half-life (T1/2) of >1000 days post-symptom onset. The magnitude of neutralizing antibodies (geometric mean titer, inpatients: 378 [246-580, 95% CI] versus outpatients: 83 [59-116, 95% CI]) and durability (inpatients: 65 [43-98, 95% CI] versus outpatients: 33 [26-40, 95% CI]) were associated with COVID-19 severity. Older age was a positive correlate with both higher IgG binding and neutralizing antibody levels when controlling for COVID-19 hospitalization status. We found no significant relationships between HCoV antibody responses and COVID-19 clinical outcomes, or the development of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies. Conclusions and RelevanceThis study demonstrates that humoral responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection are robust on longer time-scales, including those arising from milder infections. However, the magnitude and durability of the antibody response after natural infection was lower and more variable in younger participants who did not require hospitalization for COVID-19. These findings support vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 in all suitable populations including those individuals that have recovered from natural infection.