Factors associated with differential seropositivity to Leptospira interrogans and Leptospira kirschneri in a high transmission urban setting for leptospirosis in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Leptospirosis is a zoonosis caused by pathogenic species of bacteria belonging to the genus Leptospira. Most studies infer the epidemiological patterns of a single serogroup or aggregate all serogroups to estimate overall seropositivity, thus not exploring the risks of exposure to distinct serogroups. The present study aims to delineate the demographic, socioeconomic and environmental factors associated with seropositivity of Leptospira serogroup Icterohaemorraghiae and serogroup Cynopteri in an urban high transmission setting for leptospirosis in Brazil. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We performed a cross-sectional serological study in five informal urban communities in the city of Salvador, Brazil. During the years 2018, 2020 2021, we recruited 2.808 residents and collected blood samples for serological analysis using microagglutination assays. We used a fixed-effect multinomial logistic regression model to identify risk factors associated with seropositivity for each serogroup. Seropositivity to Cynopteri increased with each year of age (OR 1.03; 95% CI 1.01-1.06) and was higher in those living in houses with unplastered walls (exposed brick) (OR 1.68; 95% CI 1.09-2.59) and where cats were present near the household (OR 2.00; 95% CI 1.03-3.88). Seropositivity to Icterohaemorrhagiae also increased with each year of age (OR 1.02; 95% CI 1.01-1.03) and was higher in males (OR 1.51; 95% CI 1.09-2.10), in those with work-related exposures (OR 1.71; 95% CI 1.10-2.66) or who had contact with sewage (OR 1.42; 95% CI 1.00-2.03). Spatial analysis showed differences in distribution of seropositivity to serogroups Icterohaemorrhagiae and Cynopteri within the five districts where study communities were situated. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our data suggest distinct epidemiological patterns associated with the Icterohaemorrhagiae and Cynopteri serogroups in the urban environment at high risk for leptospirosis and with differences in spatial niches. We emphasize the need for studies that accurately identify the different pathogenic serogroups that circulate and infect residents of low-income areas.

A Comprehensive Review on GLP-1 Signaling Pathways in the Management of Diabetes Mellitus - Focus on the Potential Role of GLP-1 Receptors Agonists and Selenium Among Various Organ Systems.

Diabetes Mellitus develops when the body becomes unable to fuel its cells with glucose, which results in the accumulation of sugar excess in the bloodstream. Because it has diverse pathophysiological impacts on the body, diabetes mellitus represents a significant issue of concern in an attempt to find suitable treatment modalities and medications for afflicted diabetic patients. Glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) plays a pivotal role in the incretin effect, emerging as a prospective treatment for diabetes mellitus and a promising means of regenerating pancreatic cells, whether directly or through its receptor agonists. It has been shown that GLP-1 efficiently increases insulin production, lowers blood sugar levels in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, and decreases appetite, craving, and hunger, therefore amplifying the sensation of fullness and satiety. Moreover, since they are all dependent on GLP-1 effect, intricate signaling pathways share some similarities during specific phases, although the pathways continue to exhibit significant divergence engendered by specific reactions and effects in each organ, which encompasses the rationale behind observed differences. This triggers an expanding range of GLP-1 R agonists, creating new unforeseen research and therapeutic application prospects. This review aims to explain the incretin effect, discuss how GLP-1 regulates blood glucose levels, and how it affects different body organs, as well as how it transmits signals, before introducing selenium's role in the incretin impact.

Factors associated with differential seropositivity to Leptospira interrogans and Leptospira kirschneri in a high transmission urban setting for leptospirosis in Brazil.

Background: Leptospirosis is a zoonosis caused by pathogenic species of bacteria belonging to the genus Leptospira. Most studies infer the epidemiological patterns of a single serogroup or aggregate all serogroups to estimate overall seropositivity, thus not exploring the risks of exposure to distinct serogroups. The present study aims to delineate the demographic, socioeconomic and environmental factors associated with seropositivity of Leptospira serogroup Icterohaemorraghiae and serogroup Cynopteri in an urban high transmission setting for leptospirosis in Brazil. Methods/Principal Findings: We performed a cross-sectional serological study in five urban informal communities in the city of Salvador, Brazil. During the years 2018, 2020 2021, we recruited 2.808 residents and collected blood samples for serological analysis using microagglutination assays. We used a mixed-effect multinomial logistic regression model to identify risk factors associated with seropositivity for each serogroup. Seropositivity to Cynopteri increased with age in years (OR 1.03; 95% CI 1.01-1.06) and was higher in those living in houses with unplaster walls (exposed brick) (OR 1.68; 95% CI 1.09-2.59) and where cats were present near the household (OR 2.00; 95% CI 1.03-3.88). Seropositivity to Icterohaemorrhagiae also increased with age in years (OR 1.02; 95% CI 1.01-1.03) but was higher in males (OR 1.51; 95% CI 1.09-2.10), in those with work-related exposures (OR 1.71; 95% CI 1.10-2.66) or who had contact with sewage (OR 1.42; 95% CI 1.00-2.03). Spatial analysis showed differences in distribution of seropositivity to serogroups Icterohaemorrhagiae and Cynopteri within the five districts where study communities were situated. Conclusions/Significance: Our data suggests distinct epidemiological patterns associated with serogroups Icterohaemorrhagiae and Cynopteri within the high-risk urban environment for leptospirosis and with differences of spatial niches. Future studies must identify the different pathogenic serogroups circulating in low-income areas, and further evaluate the potential role of cats in the transmission of the serogroup Cynopteri in urban settings.

Population fluctuations and synanthropy explain transmission risk in rodent-borne zoonoses.

Population fluctuations are widespread across the animal kingdom, especially in the order Rodentia, which includes many globally important reservoir species for zoonotic pathogens. The implications of these fluctuations for zoonotic spillover remain poorly understood. Here, we report a global empirical analysis of data describing the linkages between habitat use, population fluctuations and zoonotic reservoir status in rodents. Our quantitative synthesis is based on data collated from papers and databases. We show that the magnitude of population fluctuations combined with species' synanthropy and degree of human exploitation together distinguish most rodent reservoirs at a global scale, a result that was consistent across all pathogen types and pathogen transmission modes. Our spatial analyses identified hotspots of high transmission risk, including regions where reservoir species dominate the rodent community. Beyond rodents, these generalities inform our understanding of how natural and anthropogenic factors interact to increase the risk of zoonotic spillover in a rapidly changing world.

Linking rattiness, geography and environmental degradation to spillover Leptospira infections in marginalised urban settings: An eco-epidemiological community-based cohort study in Brazil.

Background: Zoonotic spillover from animal reservoirs is responsible for a significant global public health burden, but the processes that promote spillover events are poorly understood in complex urban settings. Endemic transmission of Leptospira, the agent of leptospirosis, in marginalised urban communities occurs through human exposure to an environment contaminated by bacteria shed in the urine of the rat reservoir. However, it is unclear to what extent transmission is driven by variation in the distribution of rats or by the dispersal of bacteria in rainwater runoff and overflow from open sewer systems. Methods: We conducted an eco-epidemiological study in a high-risk community in Salvador, Brazil, by prospectively following a cohort of 1401 residents to ascertain serological evidence for leptospiral infections. A concurrent rat ecology study was used to collect information on the fine-scale spatial distribution of 'rattiness', our proxy for rat abundance and exposure of interest. We developed and applied a novel geostatistical framework for joint spatial modelling of multiple indices of disease reservoir abundance and human infection risk. Results: The estimated infection rate was 51.4 (95%CI 40.4, 64.2) infections per 1000 follow-up events. Infection risk increased with age until 30 years of age and was associated with male gender. Rattiness was positively associated with infection risk for residents across the entire study area, but this effect was stronger in higher elevation areas (OR 3.27 95% CI 1.68, 19.07) than in lower elevation areas (OR 1.14 95% CI 1.05, 1.53). Conclusions: These findings suggest that, while frequent flooding events may disperse bacteria in regions of low elevation, environmental risk in higher elevation areas is more localised and directly driven by the distribution of local rat populations. The modelling framework developed may have broad applications in delineating complex animal-environment-human interactions during zoonotic spillover and identifying opportunities for public health intervention. Funding: This work was supported by the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation and Secretariat of Health Surveillance, Brazilian Ministry of Health, the National Institutes of Health of the United States (grant numbers F31 AI114245, R01 AI052473, U01 AI088752, R01 TW009504 and R25 TW009338); the Wellcome Trust (102330/Z/13/Z), and by the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado da Bahia (FAPESB/JCB0020/2016). MTE was supported by a Medical Research UK doctorate studentship. FBS participated in this study under a FAPESB doctorate scholarship.

Evaluation of the impact of chemical control on the ecology of Rattus norvegicus of an urban community in Salvador, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: The presence of synanthropic rodents, such as Rattus norvegicus, in urban environments generates high costs of prophylaxis and control, in large part due to the environmental transmission of the pathogenic spirochete Leptospira interrogans, which causes leptospirosis. In Salvador, Brazil, The Center for Control of Zoonosis (CCZ) is responsible for planning and implementing Rodent Control Programs (RCP) which are based on chemical rodenticide. However, these strategies have not been standardized for use in developing countries. AIM: This study aimed to identify the effect of a chemical control campaign on the demographic variables of urban R. norvegicus, analyzing relative abundance, sex structure, body mass, and age of the population, as well as the characterization of spatial distribution among households, rodent capture campaigns and interventions. METHODS: This study was carried out during 2015 in three valleys of an urban poor community in Salvador. Individuals of R. norvegicus were systematically captured before (Pre-intervention) and three months (1st post-intervention) and six months (2nd post-intervention) after a chemical control intervention conducted by the CCZ in two valleys of the study area while the third valley was not included in the intervention campaign and was used as a non-intervention reference. We used analysis of variance to determine if intervention affected demographic variables and chi-square to compare proportions of infested households (Rodent infestation index-PII). RESULTS: During the chemical intervention, 939 households were visited. In the pre-intervention campaign, an effort of 310 trap nights resulted in 43 rodents captured, and in the 1st and 2nd, post-intervention campaigns resulted in 47 rodents captured over 312 trap nights and 36 rodents captured over 324 traps-nights, respectively. The rodent infestation index (PII) points did not show a reduction between the period before the intervention and the two periods after the chemical intervention (70%, 72%, and 65%, respectively). Regarding relative abundances, there was no difference between valleys and period before and two periods after chemical intervention (trap success valley 1: 0,18; 0,19; 0,18 / Valley 3 0,15; 0,17; 0,13/ P>0,05). Other demographic results showed that there was no difference in demographic characteristics of the rodent population before and after the intervention, as well as there being no influence of the application of rodenticide on the areas of concentration of capture of rodents between the campaigns. CONCLUSION: Our study indicates that the chemical control was not effective in controlling the population of R. norvegicus and provides evidence of the need for re-evaluation of rodent control practices in urban poor community settings.

Population dynamics of synanthropic rodents after a chemical and infrastructural intervention in an urban low-income community.

Synanthropic rodents are ubiquitous in low-income communities and pose risks for human health, as they are generally resistant to control programs. However, few or no studies have evaluated the long-term effect of chemical and infrastructural interventions on rodent population dynamics, especially in urban low-income communities, or evaluated the potential recovery of their population following interventions. We conducted a longitudinal study in a low-income community in the city of Salvador (BA, Brazil) to characterize the effect of interventions (chemical and infrastructural) on the dynamics of rodent population, and documented the post-intervention recovery of their population. We evaluated the degree of rodent infestation in 117 households/sampling points over three years (2014-2017), using tracking plates, a proxy for rodent abundance/activity. We reported a significant lower rodent activity/abundance after the chemical and infrastructural interventions (Z = -4.691 (p < 0.001)), with track plate positivity decreasing to 28% from 70% after and before interventions respectively. Therefore, the combination of chemical and infrastructural interventions significantly decreased the degree of rodent infestation in the study area. In addition, no rodent population rebound was recorded until almost a year post-intervention, and the post-intervention infestation level did not attain the pre-intervention level all through the study. Moreover, among pre-treatment conditions, access to sewer rather than the availability of food was the variable most closely associated with household rodent infestation. Our study indicates that Integrated Pest Management (IPM)-approaches are more effective in reducing rodent infestation than the use of a single method. Our findings will be useful in providing guidance for long-term rodent control programs, especially in urban low-income communities.

Puumala Orthohantavirus Infection Does Not Affect the Trapping Success of Its Reservoir Host.

Pathogens might affect behavior of infected reservoir hosts and hence their trappability, which could bias population estimates of pathogen prevalence. In this study, we used snap-trapping data on Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV)-infected (n = 1619) and noninfected (n = 6940) bank voles (Myodes glareolus) from five vole cycles, normally representing increase, peak, and decline phase, to evaluate if infection status affected trapping success. If PUUV infection, as previously suggested, increases activity and/or mobility, we would expect a higher proportion of infected than noninfected specimens in the first trapping night. However, the proportion of PUUV-infected voles did not differ across the three trapping nights. We conclude that PUUV infection did not affect trapping success, confirming snap trapping as an appropriate trapping method for studies on PUUV prevalence and likely other orthohantaviruses.

Why is leptospirosis hard to avoid for the impoverished? Deconstructing leptospirosis transmission risk and the drivers of knowledge, attitudes, and practices in a disadvantaged community in Salvador, Brazil.

Several studies have identified socioeconomic and environmental risk factors for infectious disease, but the relationship between these and knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP), and more importantly their web of effects on individual infection risk, have not previously been evaluated. We conducted a cross-sectional KAP survey in an urban disadvantaged community in Salvador, Brazil, leveraging on simultaneously collected fine-scale environmental and epidemiological data on leptospirosis transmission. Residents' knowledge influenced their attitudes which influenced their practices. However, different KAP variables were driven by different socioeconomic and environmental factors; and while improved KAP variables reduced risk, there were additional effects of socioeconomic and environmental factors on risk. For example, males and those of lower socioeconomic status were at greater risk, but once we controlled for KAP, male gender and lower socioeconomic status themselves were not direct drivers of seropositivity. Employment was linked to better knowledge and a less contaminated environment, and hence lower risk, but being employed was independently associated with a higher, not lower risk of leptospirosis transmission, suggesting travel to work as a high risk activity. Our results show how such complex webs of influence can be disentangled. They indicate that public health messaging and interventions should take into account this complexity and prioritize factors that limit exposure and support appropriate prevention practices.

Climate change accelerates winter transmission of a zoonotic pathogen.

Many zoonotic diseases are weather sensitive, raising concern how their distribution and outbreaks will be affected by climate change. At northern high latitudes, the effect of global warming on especially winter conditions is strong. By using long term monitoring data (1980-1986 and 2003-2013) from Northern Europe on temperature, precipitation, an endemic zoonotic pathogen (Puumala orthohantavirus, PUUV) and its reservoir host (the bank vole, Myodes glareolus), we show that early winters have become increasingly wet, with a knock-on effect on pathogen transmission in its reservoir host population. Further, our study is the first to show a climate change effect on an endemic northern zoonosis, that is not induced by increased host abundance or distribution, demonstrating that climate change can also alter transmission intensity within host populations. Our results suggest that rainy early winters accelerate PUUV transmission in bank voles in winter, likely increasing the human zoonotic risk in the North.

Molecular Interplay of John Cunningham Virus with Interleukin 1 Beta in Colorectal Carcinomatous Tissues from a Group of Iraqi Patients.

Colorectal cancer is ranked to have high mortality among most malignancies worldwide. In the adult population, the seroprevalence rates of the John Cunningham virus (JCV) range from 70% to 90%. Recently the association for JCV in many malignant tumours have been reported worldwide, including colonic and rectum cancers. Interleukin-1ß (IL-1ß) can promote tumour growth where it is abundant in the tumour microenvironment, and its up-regulation is considered a poor prognostic feature in different types of solid tumours, including colon malignancies. One hundred tissue biopsies belonged to 50 patients with colorectal cancers and 30 benign colonic tumour patients, and 20 colorectal control tissues were enrolled in this study. JCV was detected via chromogenic in situ hybridization (CISH), while IL-1 beta was detected by immunohistochemistry (IHC). The recorded data showed that 21 out of 50 (42%) tissue samples with colorectal carcinoma showed positive CISH reactions for JCV DNA in this study. The benign colorectal tumours group revealed positive signals in 2 out of 30 tissues representing 6.7% of this group. Lastly, no control tissues showed positive signals for the JCV -CISH test. The positive signals of IL-1 Beta-IHC detection were found in 26 out of 50 (52 %) colorectal carcinoma tissues, while in the benign colorectal tumour was 43.3% (13 out of 30) and in AHC was 20% (4 out of 20 tissues). The high rates of JCV infection in this group of Iraqi patients with colonic adenocarcinoma in concordance with IL-1 Beta expression could play an essential role in the development and progression of these malignant tumours along with benign colonic tumours. To analyze the concordant expression of IL-1 beta gene and JCV in issues from a group of Iraqi patients with colonic adenocarcinomas.

Demographic drivers of Norway rat populations from urban slums in Brazil.

The Norway rat is a globally distributed pest, known for its resilience to eradication and control programs. Efficient population control, especially in urban settings, is dependent on knowledge of rat demography and population ecology. We analyzed the relationship between four demographic outcomes, estimated by live-trapping data, and fine-scale environmental features measured at the capture site. Wounds, a proxy for agonistic interactions, were associated with mature individuals. Areas with environmental features favorable to rats, such as open sewers and unpaved earth, were associated with more mature individuals with a better body condition index. The control measures (environmental stressors) are likely to be disrupting the social structure of rat colonies, increasing the frequency and distribution of agonistic interactions, which were common in both sexes and maturity states. The relationship between the favorable environmental conditions and the demographic markers analyzed indicate possible targets for infestation control through environmental manipulation, and could be incorporated into current pest management programs to achieve long-term success. Our study indicate that urban interventions focused on removal of potential resources for rats could be potential long-term solutions by reducing the carrying capacity of the environment. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11252-020-01075-2.

Prevalence of Orthohantavirus-Reactive Antibodies in Humans and Peri-Domestic Rodents in Northern Ethiopia.

In 2012, Tigray orthohantavirus was discovered in Ethiopia, but its seasonal infection in small mammals, and whether it poses a risk to humans was unknown. The occurrence of small mammals, rodents and shrews, in human inhabitations in northern Ethiopia is affected by season and presence of stone bunds. We sampled small mammals in two seasons from low- and high-density stone bund fields adjacent to houses and community-protected semi-natural habitats in Atsbi and Hagere Selam, where Tigray orthohantavirus was first discovered. We collected blood samples from both small mammals and residents using filter paper. The presence of orthohantavirus-reactive antibodies in blood was then analyzed using immunofluorescence assay (human samples) and enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (small mammal samples) with Puumala orthohantavirus as antigen. Viral RNA was detected by RT-PCR using small mammal blood samples. Total orthohantavirus prevalence (antibodies or virus RNA) in the small mammals was 3.37%. The positive animals were three Stenocephalemys albipes rats (prevalence in this species = 13.04%). The low prevalence made it impossible to determine whether season and stone bunds were associated with orthohantavirus prevalence in the small mammals. In humans, we report the first detection of orthohantavirus-reactive IgG antibodies in Ethiopia (seroprevalence = 5.26%). S. albipes lives in close proximity to humans, likely increasing the risk of zoonotic transmission.

Poverty, sanitation, and Leptospira transmission pathways in residents from four Brazilian slums.

Residents of urban slums suffer from a high burden of zoonotic diseases due to individual, socioeconomic, and environmental factors. We conducted a cross-sectional sero-survey in four urban slums in Salvador, Brazil, to characterize how poverty and sanitation contribute to the transmission of rat-borne leptospirosis. Sero-prevalence in the 1,318 participants ranged between 10.0 and 13.3%. We found that contact with environmental sources of contamination, rather than presence of rat reservoirs, is what leads to higher risk for residents living in areas with inadequate sanitation. Further, poorer residents may be exposed away from the household, and ongoing governmental interventions were not associated with lower transmission risk. Residents at higher risk were aware of their vulnerability, and their efforts improved the physical environment near their household, but did not reduce their infection chances. This study highlights the importance of understanding the socioeconomic and environmental determinants of risk, which ought to guide intervention efforts.

A multivariate geostatistical framework for combining multiple indices of abundance for disease vectors and reservoirs: a case study of rattiness in a low-income urban Brazilian community.

A key requirement in studies of endemic vector-borne or zoonotic disease is an estimate of the spatial variation in vector or reservoir host abundance. For many vector species, multiple indices of abundance are available, but current approaches to choosing between or combining these indices do not fully exploit the potential inferential benefits that might accrue from modelling their joint spatial distribution. Here, we develop a class of multivariate generalized linear geostatistical models for multiple indices of abundance. We illustrate this novel methodology with a case study on Norway rats in a low-income urban Brazilian community, where rat abundance is a likely risk factor for human leptospirosis. We combine three indices of rat abundance to draw predictive inferences on a spatially continuous latent process, rattiness, that acts as a proxy for abundance. We show how to explore the association between rattiness and spatially varying environmental factors, evaluate the relative importance of each of the three contributing indices and assess the presence of residual, unexplained spatial variation, and identify rattiness hotspots. The proposed methodology is applicable more generally as a tool for understanding the role of vector or reservoir host abundance in predicting spatial variation in the risk of human disease.

Selective Predation by Owls on Infected Bank Voles (Myodes glareolus) as a Possible Sentinel of Tularemia Outbreaks.

Tularemia is a widely spread zoonotic disease in the northern hemisphere, caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis. In humans, tularemia is an acute febrile illness with incidence peaks in late summer to early autumn of outbreak years, but there is no early warning system in place that can reduce the impact of disease by providing timely risk information. In this study, we revisit previously unpublished data on F. tularensis in water, sediment, soil, and small mammals from 1984 in northern Sweden. In addition, we used human case data from the national surveillance system for tularemia in the same year. In the environmental and small mammal material, bank vole (Myodes glareolus) samples from urine and bladder were the only samples that tested positive for F. tularensis. The prevalence of F. tularensis among trapped bank voles was 13.5%, although all six bank voles that were retrieved from owl nest boxes in early May tested positive. Forty-two human tularemia cases were reported from August to December in 1984. Based on these results, we encourage investigating the potential role of tularemia-infected bank voles retrieved from owl nest boxes in spring as an early warning for outbreaks of tularemia among humans in summer and autumn of the same year.

Knowledge of Stroke Warning Signs, Risk Factors, and Response to Stroke among Lebanese Older Adults in Beirut.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Stroke is a global burden. In Lebanon, recent studies have shown that stroke prevalence may be higher than other developing countries. While older people are particularly vulnerable to stroke, research suggests that they have poor stroke awareness. Since awareness is crucial for early hospital admission, thereby outcome, the main objectives of this study were to assess knowledge of stroke ie, symptoms, risk factors, and intended behavior in case of stroke suspicion. METHODS: A community-based survey targeting adults aged 50 and above was conducted at 20 random pharmacies in Beirut from May to October 2018 through face to face interviews utilizing a structured questionnaire composed of open and closed ended questions. Descriptive and multivariable analyses were performed. MAIN RESULTS: In total, 390 participants completed the questionnaire. Sixty-eight percent were able to spontaneously recall at least 1 stroke symptom, most frequently headache (29.2%), hemiparesis (25.4%), and dizziness (19.5%). Furthermore, 85.4% spontaneously recalled at least 1 risk factor, most frequently hypertension (48.2%), smoking (20.5%), and stress (43.1%). In case of stroke suspicion 57.69% would call an ambulance. Knowing a stroke patient and educational level were predictors for recall of more symptoms and risk factors for stroke. Adequate response to stroke was positively associated with identification of more stroke symptoms but inversely associated with having diabetes. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: There are major gaps in stroke knowledge among Beirut's older population. Culturally tailored awareness campaigns should be implemented at multiple levels using different media methods to target vulnerable populations at higher risk for stroke and their families. These campaigns should focus on improving stroke symptoms awareness and actions to take when suspecting stroke.

Wildfire-induced short-term changes in a small mammal community increase prevalence of a zoonotic pathogen?

Natural disturbances like droughts and fires are important determinants of wildlife community structure and are suggested to have important implications for prevalence of wildlife-borne pathogens. After a major wildfire affecting >1,600 ha of boreal forest in Sweden in 2006, we took the rare opportunity to study the short-term response (2007-2010 and 2015) of small mammal community structure, population dynamics, and prevalence of the Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV) hosted by bank voles (Myodes glareolus). We performed snap-trapping in permanent trapping plots in clear-cuts (n = 3), unburnt reference forests (n = 7), and the fire area (n = 7) and surveyed vegetation and habitat structure. Small mammal species richness was low in all habitats (at maximum three species per trapping session), and the bank vole was the only small mammal species encountered in the fire area after the first postfire year. In autumns of years of peak rodent densities, the trapping index of bank voles was lowest in the fire area, and in two of three peak-density years, it was highest in clear-cuts. Age structure of bank voles varied among forest types with dominance of overwintered breeders in the fire area in the first postfire spring. PUUV infection probability in bank voles was positively related to vole age. Infection probability was highest in the fire area due to low habitat complexity in burnt forests, which possibly increased encounter rate among bank voles. Our results suggest that forest fires induce cascading effects, including fast recovery/recolonization of fire areas by generalists like bank voles, impoverished species richness of small mammals, and altered prevalence of a rodent-borne zoonotic pathogen. Our pilot study suggests high human infection risk upon encountering a bank vole in the fire area, however, with even higher overall risk in unburnt forests due to their higher vole numbers. OPEN RESEARCH BADGES: This article has earned an Open Data Badge for making publicly available the digitally-shareable data necessary to reproduce the reported results. The data is available at https://osf.io/6fsy3/.

Population Dynamics of Bank Voles Predicts Human Puumala Hantavirus Risk.

Predicting risk of zoonotic diseases, i.e., diseases shared by humans and animals, is often complicated by the population ecology of wildlife host(s). We here demonstrate how ecological knowledge of a disease system can be used for early prediction of human risk using Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) in bank voles (Myodes glareolus), which causes Nephropathia epidemica (NE) in humans, as a model system. Bank vole populations at northern latitudes exhibit multiannual fluctuations in density and spatial distribution, a phenomenon that has been studied extensively. Nevertheless, existing studies predict NE incidence only a few months before an outbreak. We used a time series on cyclic bank vole population density (1972-2013), their PUUV infection rates (1979-1986; 2003-2013), and NE incidence in Sweden (1990-2013). Depending on the relationship between vole density and infection prevalence (proportion of infected animals), either overall density of bank voles or the density of infected bank voles may be used to predict seasonal NE incidence. The density and spatial distribution of voles at density minima of a population cycle contribute to the early warning of NE risk later at its cyclic peak. When bank voles remain relatively widespread in the landscape during cyclic minima, PUUV can spread from a high baseline during a cycle, culminating in high prevalence in bank voles and potentially high NE risk during peak densities.

Dampening of population cycles in voles affects small mammal community structure, decreases diversity, and increases prevalence of a zoonotic disease.

Long-term decline and depression of density in cyclic small rodents is a recent widespread phenomenon. These observed changes at the population level might have cascading effects at the ecosystem level. Here, we assessed relationships between changing boreal landscapes and biodiversity changes of small mammal communities. We also inferred potential effects of observed community changes for increased transmission risk of Puumala virus (PUUV) spread, causing the zoonotic disease nephropatica epidemica in humans. Analyses were based on long-term (1971-2013) monitoring data of shrews and voles representing 58 time series in northern Sweden. We calculated richness, diversity, and evenness at alpha, beta, and gamma level, partitioned beta diversity into turnover (species replacement) and nestedness (species addition/removal), used similarity percentages (SIMPER) analysis to assess community structure, and calculated the cumulated number of PUUV-infected bank voles and average PUUV prevalence (percentage of infected bank voles) per vole cycle. Alpha, beta, and gamma richness and diversity of voles, but not shrews, showed long-term trends that varied spatially. The observed patterns were associated with an increase in community contribution of bank vole (Myodes glareolus), a decrease of gray-sided vole (M. rufocanus) and field vole (Microtus agrestis) and a hump-shaped variation in contribution of common shrew (Sorex araneus). Long-term biodiversity changes were largely related to changes in forest landscape structure. Number of PUUV-infected bank voles in spring was negatively related to beta and gamma diversity, and positively related to turnover of shrews (replaced by voles) and to community contribution of bank voles. The latter was also positively related to average PUUV prevalence in spring. We showed that long-term changes in the boreal landscape contributed to explain the decrease in biodiversity and the change in structure of small mammal communities. In addition, our results suggest decrease in small mammal diversity to have knock-on effects on dynamics of infectious diseases among small mammals with potential implications for disease transmission to humans.