The synergistic effect of obesity and dyslipidemia on hypertension: results from the STEPS survey.

BACKGROUND: Obesity and dyslipidemia are important risk factors for hypertension (HTN). When these two conditions coexist, they may interact in a synergistic manner and increase the risk of developing HTN and its associated complications. The aim of this study was to investigate the synergistic effect of general and central obesity with dyslipidemia on the risk of HTN. METHOD: Data from 40,387 individuals aged 25 to 64 years were obtained from a repeated cross-sectional study examining risk factors for non-communicable diseases (STEPS) in 2007, 2011 and 2016. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated as a measure of general obesity and waist circumference (WC) as a measure of central obesity. Dyslipidemia was defined as the presence of at least one of the lipid abnormalities. Hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mmHg or current use of antihypertensive medication. To analyze the synergistic effect between obesity and dyslipidemia and HTN, the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI), attributable proportion due to interaction (AP), and synergy index (SI) were calculated. A weighted logistic regression model was performed to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) for the risk of HTN. RESULTS: The results showed an association between obesity, dyslipidemia and hypertension. The interaction between obesity and dyslipidemia significantly influences the risk of hypertension. In hypertensive patients, the presence of general obesity increased from 14.55% without dyslipidemia to 64.36% with dyslipidemia, while central obesity increased from 13.27 to 58.88%. This interaction is quantified by RERI and AP values of 0.15 and 0.06 for general obesity and 0.24 and 0.09 for central obesity, respectively. The corresponding SI of 1.11 and 1.16 indicate a synergistic effect. The OR also show that the risk of hypertension is increased in the presence of obesity and dyslipidemia. CONCLUSION: Obesity and dyslipidemia are risk factors for HTN. In addition, dyslipidemia with central obesity increases the risk of HTN and has a synergistic interaction effect on HTN. Therefore, the coexistence of obesity and lipid abnormalities has many clinical implications and should be appropriately monitored and evaluated in the management of HTN.

Optimizing cardiovascular disease mortality prediction: a super learner approach in the tehran lipid and glucose study.

BACKGROUND & AIM: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most important cause of death in the world and has a potential impact on health care costs, this study aimed to evaluate the performance of machine learning survival models and determine the optimum model for predicting CVD-related mortality. METHOD: In this study, the research population was all participants in Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) aged over 30 years. We used the Gradient Boosting model (GBM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Super Learner (SL), and Cox proportional hazard (Cox-PH) models to predict the CVD-related mortality using 26 features. The dataset was randomly divided into training (80%) and testing (20%). To evaluate the performance of the methods, we used the Brier Score (BS), Prediction Error (PE), Concordance Index (C-index), and time-dependent Area Under the Curve (TD-AUC) criteria. Four different clinical models were also performed to improve the performance of the methods. RESULTS: Out of 9258 participants with a mean age of (SD; range) 43.74 (15.51; 20-91), 56.60% were female. The CVD death proportion was 2.5% (228 participants). The death proportion was significantly higher in men (67.98% M, 32.02% F). Based on predefined selection criteria, the SL method has the best performance in predicting CVD-related mortality (TD-AUC > 93.50%). Among the machine learning (ML) methods, The SVM has the worst performance (TD-AUC = 90.13%). According to the relative effect, age, fasting blood sugar, systolic blood pressure, smoking, taking aspirin, diastolic blood pressure, Type 2 diabetes mellitus, hip circumference, body mss index (BMI), and triglyceride were identified as the most influential variables in predicting CVD-related mortality. CONCLUSION: According to the results of our study, compared to the Cox-PH model, Machine Learning models showed promising and sometimes better performance in predicting CVD-related mortality. This finding is based on the analysis of a large and diverse urban population from Tehran, Iran.

Impact of optimal cholesterol levels on subclinical atherosclerosis in the absence of risk factors in young adults.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We aimed to assess the association of blood lipids with the prevalence, incidence, and progression of subclinical atherosclerosis among young individuals without dyslipidemia and other traditional cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs). METHODS: A total of 1270 participants from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study aged 32-46 years free of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, hypertension, current smoking, and dyslipidemia (total cholesterol [TC] ≥ 240 mg/dL, triglycerides [TG] ≥ 150 mg/dL, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C] ≥ 160 mg/dL, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C] < 40 mg/dL, or taking lipid-lowering medications) were included. A subgroup with optimal lipids within the low-CVRF group was defined with TC < 200 mg/dL, LDL-C < 100 mg/dL, non-HDL-C < 130 mg/dL, and women with HDL-C ≥ 50 mg/dL. RESULTS: 1-SD higher TC (25.9 mg/dL), LDL-C (24.7 mg/dL), and non-HDL-C (26.6 mg/dL) were associated with a greater risk of presence (hazard ratios: 1.30-1.36), incidence (1.30-1.32), and progression (1.31-1.35) of coronary artery calcium (CAC) and a 42-44% greater odds of composite mean carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) ≥ 75th percentile [780 µm] (p < 0.05). Repeating the analyses in a subset of participants with a CAC score of zero did not alter the association of TC, LDL-C, and non-HDL-C with CIMT. In the subgroup with optimal lipids, these lipid indices remained associated with an increased risk of presence and incidence of CAC and greater CIMT measures. CONCLUSIONS: Among adults aged 32-46 years, in the absence of traditional CVRFs, elevated cholesterol levels, even within what is considered optimal, are associated with atherosclerosis and arteriopathy.

Higher ultra-processed food intake is associated with an increased incidence risk of cardiovascular disease: the Tehran lipid and glucose study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of death worldwide, although limited data are currently available regarding the impact of consuming ultra-processed food (UPF) on its incidence. Given the increased consumption of UPF in Iran, we aimed to investigate the association between UPF intake and CVD risk. METHODS: Individuals without CVD (n = 2050) aged ≥ 30 years old were recruited from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS). Dietary data were collected using a validated food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) and UPF intakes were assessed based on the Nova food classification. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for potential confounders were used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the risk of CVD across tertiles of UPF intake. RESULTS: A 10.1% incidence of CVD occurred over a median follow-up of 10.6 years, with a 22% increase in CVD risk per each 50 g/day UPF intake. Participants with the highest intake of UPF had a 68% greater incidence of CVD compared to those with the lowest intake (HR = 1.68, 95% CI=1.14-2.48) after controlling for potential confounders. Regarding sub-groups of UPF, participants in the 3rd tertile compared to the reference had a significantly increased risk of CVD (HR = 1.56, 95% CI=1.04-2.34). Nevertheless, intake of bread, fast food, sweetened beverages, sweets and desserts, high-fat dairy products, and other UPFs were not associated with greater CVD risk. CONCLUSION: Our findings support the hypothesis that the incidence of CVD is enhanced with the higher consumption of UPF in a representative sample of the Iranian population.

Establishing research impact assessment in Iran: The first report from a non-high-income country.

Background: This study presents the first report on research impact assessment (RIA) in non-high-income countries, undertaken as a pilot initiative in 2021. Within it, we aimed to explore the feasibility of employing the 'payback' model for evaluating the impact of health research and enhancing the accountability of universities. We focussed on three key impact domains: 'production of decision support documents and knowledge-based products,' 'implementation of research results,' and 'health and economic impact.' Methods: We adopted a case study approach to assess the impact of 5334 health research projects conducted by researchers from 18 universities from 2018 to 2020. Researchers were required to submit evidence related to at least one of the specified impact domains; six scientific committees verified and scored claimed impacts at the national level. Results: Only 25% of the assessed projects achieved impact in at least one domain, with the production of decision support documents and knowledge products being the most reported impact. Notably, economic impact was verified in only three projects, indicating room for improvement in this area. Technology research exhibited the highest acceptance rate of claimed impact, suggesting a positive correlation between technology-focused projects and impactful outcomes. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the feasibility of employing a case study approach and the 'payback' model to evaluate the impact of health research, even within the constraints of a moderately equipped research infrastructure. These findings underscore the potential of integrating RIA into the governance of health research in Iran and other non-high-income countries, as well as the importance of using RIA to assess the accountability of health research systems, guide the allocation of research funding, and advocate for the advancement of health research. The study sets a precedent for future assessments in similar contexts and contributes to the ongoing global dialogue on the societal impact of health research.

Impact of coronary artery calcium on mortality and cardiovascular events in metabolic syndrome and diabetes among younger adults.

AIMS: Whether coronary artery calcium (CAC) testing in younger individuals with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and diabetes mellitus (DM) helps predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) and death independent of traditional risk factors (RFs) remains less clear. METHODS AND RESULTS: We pooled data obtained from 5174 individuals aged 38-55 years from the CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults; n = 3047, year 20) and MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis; n = 2127, Visit 1) studies who completed computed tomography of CAC. The mean age (SD) of participants (44.7% men) was 47.3 (4.2) years. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD), and all-cause death. There were 1085 participants (21.0%) with prevalent CAC at baseline. A total of 461 (8.9%) had DM, 1025 (19.8%) had MetS without DM, and 3688 (71.3%) had neither condition. Over a median follow-up of 14.2 years, 256 (5.0%) participants died, and 304 (5.9%) CVD and 188 (3.6%) CHD events occurred. The CAC score was independently associated with incident CVD in those with DM (HR: 95% CI; 1.22: 1.08-1.38), MetS (1.18: 1.08-1.31), and neither condition (1.36: 1.26-1.46). The corresponding HRs for CAC ≥ 100 were 2.70 (1.25-5.83), 3.29 (1.87-5.79), and 6.30 (4.02-9.86), respectively. Similar associations for CHD and death were found. The impact of CAC ≥ 100 on CVD and CHD was lower in the presence of DM (P interaction < 0.05). The association of CAC with all outcomes in individuals with DM remained significant after adjusting with haemoglobin A1c levels. CONCLUSION: Coronary artery calcium score is independently associated with cardiovascular events and death over nearly 15 years after screening at ages 38-55 years, with a less pronounced impact on CVD and CHD events in the presence of DM.

In this pooled cohort, we aimed to analyse the relationship between coronary artery calcium (CAC) and incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary heart disease (CHD), and all-cause mortality among younger individuals with diabetes mellitus (DM), metabolic syndrome (MetS), and neither condition. The CAC score was independently associated with incident CVD, CHD, and all-cause mortality in those with DM, MetS, and neither condition. The impact of CAC ≥ 100 on CVD and CHD events was lower in the presence of DM. The association of CAC with all outcomes in individuals with DM remained significant after adjusting with haemoglobin A1c levels.

The Tehran longitudinal family-based cardiometabolic cohort study sheds new light on dyslipidemia transmission patterns.

Dyslipidemia, as a metabolic risk factor, with the strongest and most heritable independent cause of cardiovascular diseases worldwide. We investigated the familial transmission patterns of dyslipidemia through a longitudinal family-based cohort, the Tehran Cardiometabolic Genetic Study (TCGS) in Iran. We enrolled 18,729 individuals (45% were males) aged > 18 years (mean: 38.15 (15.82)) and observed them over five 3-year follow-up periods. We evaluated the serum concentrations of total cholesterol, triglyceride, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol with the first measurement among longitudinal measures and the average measurements (AM) of the five periods. Heritability analysis was conducted using a mixed-effect framework with likelihood-based and Bayesian approaches. The periodic prevalence and heritability of dyslipidemia were estimated to be 65.7 and 42%, respectively. The likelihood of an individual having at least one dyslipidemic parent reveals an OR = 6.94 (CI 5.28-9.30) compared to those who do not have dyslipidemic parents. The most considerable intraclass correlation of family members was for the same-sex siblings, with ICC ~ 25.5%. For serum concentrations, heritability ranged from 33.64 to 60.95%. Taken together, these findings demonstrate that familial transmission of dyslipidemia in the Tehran population is strong, especially within the same-gender siblings. According to previous reports, the heritability of dyslipidemia in this population is considerably higher than the global average.

The difference between 2-hour post-challenge and fasting plasma glucose associates with the risk of cardiovascular disease in a normoglycemic population: the Tehran lipid and glucose study.

BACKGROUND: Elevated fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and 2-hour post-challenge glucose (2hPG) levels are known to be independent risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, there is limited data on the association of the difference between these measures and the risk of CVD. This study aims to investigate this association in normoglycemic Iranian adults, particularly in those with low-normal FPG levels. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 4,594 30-65-year-old participants from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, education level and FPG, hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated for the association between 2hPG-FPG, both as continuous and categorical variables, and the CVD risk. Analyses of receiver operating characteristic curves were undertaken to determine the optimal 2hPG-FPG cut-off value. RESULTS: During a median of 17.9 years of follow-up, 459 CVD events occurred. A one-unit increase in 2hPG-FPG was significantly associated with an elevated risk of cardiovascular disease in both normoglycemic (HR 1.10, 95% CI (1.01-1.19)) and low-normal FPG individuals (HR 1.16, 95% CI (1.04-1.30)); this association resisted adjustment for Homeostatic Model Assessment for Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR) among normoglycemic individuals. However, those with 2hPG levels greater than FPG levels had a non-significant increased risk of incident CVD compared to those with 2hPG levels of less than or equal to FPG, with corresponding HR values of 1.18 (95% CI: 0.95-1.46) in normoglycemic and 1.32 (95% CI: 0.98-1.79) in low-normal FPG, respectively. For incident CVD, the optimal cut-off value for the 2hPG-FPG was found to be 1.06 mmol/L, which was applicable for both normoglycemic and low FPG populations; using this criterion, the corresponding risks for incident CVD were 1.36 (95% CI: 1.12-1.64) and 1.57 (95% CI: 1.22-2.03), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The difference between 2hPG and FPG levels within the normoglycemic range is related to an increased risk of CVD, an issue that was independent of HOMA-IR. A cut-off point for 2hPG-FPG > 1.06 mmol/L may stratify persons at higher risk. These findings were particularly notable in those with low-normal FPG.

Risk of recurrence at the time of withdrawal of short- or long-term methimazole therapy in patients with Graves' hyperthyroidism: a randomized trial and a risk-scoring model.

PURPOSE: In Graves' disease, administration of low-dose methimazole for more than 60 months induces higher remission rates compared with the conventional duration of 12-18 months. However, the risk of recurrence and its predictors beyond 48 months of drug withdrawal are not known. The aims of this study were to determine the risk of recurrence during 84 months after withdrawal of short- or long-term methimazole therapy and a risk stratification for recurrence of hyperthyroidism. METHODS: A total of 258 patients were treated with methimazole for a median of 18 months and randomized to discontinuation of the drug(conventional short-term group; n = 128) or continuation of the treatment up to 60-120 months(long-term group; n = 130). Patients were followed for 84 months after methimazole withdrawal. Cox proportional hazards modeling was performed to identify factors associated with relapse and develop a risk-scoring model at the time of discontinuing the treatment. RESULTS: Hyperthyroidism recurred in 67 of 120(56%) of conventionally-treated patients versus 20 of 118(17%) of those who received long-term methimazole treatment, p < 0.001. Age, sex, goiter grade, triiodothyronine, thyrotropin, and thyrotropin receptor antibodies were significant predictors of recurrence in both "conventional" and "long-term" groups but free thyroxine just in the "long-term" group. The risk-scoring model had a good discrimination power (optimism corrected c-index = 0.78,95%CI = 0.73-0.82) with a range of 0-14 and sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 62% at the risk-score of eight. CONCLUSION: A relapse-free state was achieved in 83% of patients with Graves' hyperthyroidism 84 months after cessation of long-term methimazole treatment which could be predicted by some significant predictors in a simple risk-scoring system.

The impact of obesity on different glucose tolerance status with incident cardiovascular disease and mortality events over 15 years of follow-up: a pooled cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: The effect of obesity in different glucose tolerance statuses i.e. normoglycemia (NGT), pre-diabetes, and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality has been an area of ongoing debate and uncertainty. In the present study, we aimed to examine the impact of being obese, whether general or central separately, in comparison with non-obese in different glucose tolerance statuses on the above outcomes. METHODS: The study population included 18,184 participants aged 30-60 years (9927 women) from three longitudinal studies, including Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities, Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, and Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. Glucose tolerance status was defined as NGT (fasting plasma glucose < 5.55 mmol/L), pre-diabetes (5.55-7.00 mmol/L), and T2DM (≥ 7 mmol/L or taking any medication for diabetes). Moreover, general and central obesity were defined based on body mass index and waist circumference (WC), respectively. Multivariable stratified Cox regression analysis was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs (95% CI)) for CVD and mortality events. RESULTS: During a 16-year follow-up, 2733 CVD events, 1101 CV mortality, and 3678 all-cause mortality events were recorded. We observed that being generally obese in comparison with non-obese increased the risk of CV and all-cause mortality in all glucose tolerance statuses; while considering CVD events, only among individuals with T2DM, the presence of general obesity was associated with marginally significant higher risk [1.19 (0.98-1.43); p-value = 0.07]. Regarding central adiposity, multivariate analysis revealed that elevated WC in NGT participants is associated with incident CVD [1.27(1.12-1.46)] and all-cause mortality [1.13(1.00-1.28)]. Moreover, central adiposity increased the risk of CV mortality in pre-diabetes individuals [1.47 (1.11-1.95)]. CONCLUSION: Findings from this pooled prospective cohort studies provide evidence that general obesity shows an unfavorable association with CV and all-cause mortality among the general population irrespective of their glucose tolerance statusThe findings imply that it's important to take into account the requirement and magnitude of weight reduction in people who are obese when offering guidance.

Alterations in CD4+ T Cell Cytokines Profile in Female Patients with Hashimoto's Thyroiditis Following Vitamin D Supplementation: A Double-blind, Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT) is an autoimmune disease characterized by the destruction of thyroid cells through immune processes involving T helper (Th)1 cytokines. This clinical trial investigates the impact of vitamin D supplementation on serum cytokine levels and gene expression in CD4+ T cells from HT patients, aiming to understand its effects on Th-1, Th-2, Th-17, and regulatory T (Treg) cell-associated factors. METHODS: Female patients were randomly assigned in a double-blind design to either a vitamin D-supplemented group, which received cholecalciferol [1, 25(OH)2D3] at a dose of 50,000 IU, or the placebo group, which received a weekly placebo for a duration of three months. Serum cytokine levels were assessed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), while genes' expression levels were measured using real-time PCR. RESULTS: Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D and levels exhibited a significant increase following vitamin D supplementation, in comparison to the placebo group. Additionally, the vitamin D supplementation resulted in a significant elevation of serum calcium (Ca) levels compared to baseline. In the vitamin D group, there was a significant decrease in both serum levels and expression of the interleukin (IL)-17 gene when compared to baseline, although no statistical difference was observed between the placebo and vitamin D groups. The gene expression of transforming growth factor-beta (TGFß) was significantly increased in the vitamin D group compared to baseline, with no significant difference between the two study groups. Vitamin D treatment had no effect on serum levels of interferon-gamma (IFNϒ) and IL-4. While the gene expression of IL-4 in the vitamin D group did not exhibit a statistically significant increase, the level of GATA3 transcription factor increased significantly when compared to the placebo group. The expression of IFNϒ and transcription factors, T-bet, RORc, and forkhead box protein 3 (FOXP3) in genes did not show significant changes following vitamin D supplementation. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that vitamin D supplementation may hold potential benefits for autoimmune diseases, such as HT. However, further longitudinal clinical trials are necessary to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the specific effects of vitamin D on HT. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: IRCT2016110130644N1.

Gender differences in midlife to later-life cumulative burden and variability of obesity measures and risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Previous studies have reported the gender-specific association between general and central obesity measures, using snapshot assessments, and mortality events. This study seeks to further explore this link by examining how the longitudinal cumulative burden and variability of obesity measures from midlife to later-life impact mortality events in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study population, specifically in relation to gender differences. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Using data from the ARIC study, a total of 7615 (4360 women) participants free of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and early mortality events were included in the data analysis. Longitudinal cumulative burden (estimated by the area under the curve (AUC) using a quadratic mixed-effects method) and variability (calculated according to average successive variability (ASV)) were considered as exposures, separately and all together. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted standardized hazard ratios. RESULTS: The mean age was 62.4 and the median follow-up was 16.9 years. In men, AUCs of waist-related obesity measures, and also ASVs of all obesity measures were associated with increased all-cause mortality risk. In women, waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio AUCs were associated with increased all-cause mortality risk. Regarding cardiovascular mortality, all adiposity measures ASVs in both genders and waist-related obesity measures AUCs in men were associated with increased risk. Significant gender differences were found for the associations between cumulative and variability of waist-to-hip ratio for all-cause mortality and all adiposity measures ASVs for cardiovascular mortality risk with higher impact among men. CONCLUSIONS: Cumulative burden and variability in general and central obesity measures were associated with higher all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities among men. In women, general obesity measures variability, as well as cumulative and variability of central adiposity measure, increased all-cause mortality risk.

Cumulative Blood Pressure in Early Adulthood and Coronary Artery Calcium and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Middle Age Among Adults With Maintained Blood Pressure of <130/80 mm Hg: A Post Hoc Analysis.

BACKGROUND: To examine the association of blood pressure (BP) levels with coronary artery calcium and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) in people with maintained BP below the hypertension range based on current definitions. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this post hoc analysis of the CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) prospective observational cohort study conducted in 4 US cities, we examined 1233 study participants (mean [SD] age at year 20 examination was 45.3 [3.5] years; 65.4% women). Participants with BP assessments across 20 years and untreated BP of <130/80 mm Hg were included. Multivariable logistic or linear regression models, adjusted for age, sex, race, education, diabetes, body mass index, serum creatinine, smoking, alcohol intake, physical activity, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides, were used to examine the associations between cumulative BP measures with coronary artery calcium and CIMT. Higher long-term cumulative systolic BP and pulse pressure across early adulthood were associated with higher CIMT (both P<0.001) but not coronary artery calcium in the multivariable-adjusted model. The associations remained significant even after adjustment for a single BP measurement at year 0 or year 20. The odds ratio (OR) of a maximal CIMT >1.01 mm was ≈50% higher per 1-SD increase in systolic BP (OR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.19-1.88]) and pulse pressure (OR, 1.46 [95% CI, 1.19-1.79]). Similar findings for CIMT were observed among individuals with a coronary artery calcium score of 0 as well as those with maintained BP of <120/80 mm Hg throughout young adulthood. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term cumulative systolic BP and pulse pressure across early adulthood within the nonhypertensive range were associated with adverse midlife alterations in CIMT.

Factors associated with smoking intensity among adult smokers: findings from the longitudinal cohort of the Tehran lipid and glucose study.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is a significant public health problem, and there is a scarcity of documents regarding its severity, particularly in developing countries. This study aimed to determine factors related to the number of cigarettes consumed daily by adult smokers in Tehran. METHODS: This study was conducted within the framework of the longitudinal study of Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS). The study included 786 adult smokers living during four consecutive follow-ups from 2005 to 2016. The intensity of smoking was measured by the number of cigarettes consumed daily by adult smokers. Data analysis was done longitudinally and based on the mixed effects zero-inflated discrete Weibull (ZIDW) regression model. RESULTS: The mean age of the individuals was 40.35 ± 12.68 years, and 643 (81.8%) of them were men. Also, 52.7% of individuals were daily smokers, 15.6% were occasional smokers, and 31.7% were non-smokers who became smokers during the study. Variables of age 1.005 (95%CI: 1.001-1.008), gender of male 1.196 (95%CI: 1.051-1.39), and marital status (divorced/widowed vs. single) 1.168 (95%CI: 1.015-1.39) were positively associated with smoking intensity. Education level (master and higher vs. illiterate) 0.675 (95%CI: 0.492-0.926)), employment status (student vs. unemployed) 0.683 (95%CI: 0.522-0.917), (housewife vs. unemployed) 0.742 (95%CI: 0.606-0.895), (Unemployed with income vs. unemployed) 0.804 (95%CI: 0.697, 0.923), implementation of smoking prohibition regulations (yes vs. no) 0.88 (95%CI: 0.843-0.932), and history of cardiovascular disease in male relatives (yes vs. no) 0.85 (95%CI: 0.771-0.951) were associated with lower smoking intensity. CONCLUSION: We showed that demographic factors are associated with the intensity of smoking among adults and should be considered in policymakers' intervention programs to reduce smoking and quit smoking.

External validation of the UK prospective diabetes study (UKPDS) risk engine in patients with type 2 diabetes identified in the national diabetes program in Iran.

Background: Cardiovascular diseases are the first leading cause of mortality in the world. Practical guidelines recommend an accurate estimation of the risk of these events for effective treatment and care. The UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) has a risk engine for predicting CHD risk in patients with type 2 diabetes, but in some countries, it has been shown that the risk of CHD is poorly estimated. Hence, we assessed the external validity of the UKPDS risk engine in patients with type 2 diabetes identified in the national diabetes program in Iran. Methods: The cohort included 853 patients with type 2diabetes identified between March 21, 2007, and March 20, 2018 in Lorestan province of Iran. Patients were followed for the incidence of CHD. The performance of the models was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration. Discrimination was examined using the c-statistic and calibration was assessed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 statistic (HLχ2) test and a calibration plot was depicted to show the predicted risks versus observed ones. Results: During 7464.5 person-years of follow-up 170 first Coronary heart disease occurred. The median follow-up was 8.6 years. The UKPDS risk engine showed moderate discrimination for CHD (c-statistic was 0.72 for 10-year risk) and the calibration of the UKPDS risk engine was poor (HLχ2 = 69.9, p < 0.001) and the UKPDS risk engine78% overestimated the risk of heart disease in patients with type 2 diabetes identified in the national diabetes program in Iran. Conclusion: This study shows that the ability of the UKPDS Risk Engine to discriminate patients who developed CHD events from those who did not; was moderate and the ability of the risk prediction model to accurately predict the absolute risk of CHD (calibration) was poor and it overestimated the CHD risk. To improve the prediction of CHD in patients with type 2 diabetes, this model should be updated in the Iranian diabetic population.

General and abdominal obesity trends in the Iranian adult population from 2004 to 2021.

Purpose: The prevalence of overweight/obesity and abdominal obesity is increasing worldwide, accompanied by an increase in the incidence of non-communicable diseases. This study aims to determine the trends of Body Mass Index (BMI) and prevalence of overweight/obesity and abdominal obesity changes in Iranian adult population from 2004 to 2021. Methods: We conducted this study based on the eight national surveys of noncommunicable disease risk factor surveillance (STEPS) from 2004 to 2021 in Iran. We estimated the crude and standardized mean of BMI and prevalence of general and abdominal obesity in these eight STEPS surveys data. Data weighted using post-stratification method and the trends depicted based on the standardized estimates. Results: Between 2004 and 2021, and based on the standardized estimates, the mean of BMI increased from 25.19 kg/m2 in 2004 to 26.63 kg/m2 in 2021 (P-value for trend = 0.03). The standardized mean of WC increased from 86.38 cm in 2004 to 91.65 cm in 2021 (P-value for trend = 0.38). The standardized prevalence of obesity (class I and II) increased from 14.54% in 2004 to 20.17% in 2021 (P-value for trend = 0.01). The standardized prevalence of obesity class III increased from 0.82% in 2004 to 1.35% in 2021 (P-value for trend = 0.03). The standardized prevalence of abdominal obesity based on the national and international cut-points increased, but the trend was not statistically significant [(National cut-point: 27.53% in 2004 to 40.43% in 2021 (P-value for trend = 0.71)) (International cut-point: 27.58% in 2004 to 41.81% in 2021 (P-value for trend = 0.06))]. Conclusion: The standardized mean of BMI and prevalence of overweight/obesity and abdominal obesity increased among Iranian adults between 2004 and 2021. Because of the negative public and clinical health implications of obesity, health policymakers should develop comprehensive programs to control this increasing trend of weight gain.

Validity of the models predicting 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases in Asia: A systematic review and prediction model meta-analysis.

We aimed to review the validity of existing prediction models for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in Asia. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we included studies that validated prediction models for CVD risk in the general population in Asia. Various databases, including PubMed, Web of Science conference proceedings citation index, Scopus, Global Index Medicus of the World Health Organization (WHO), and Open Access Thesis and Dissertations (OATD), were searched up to November 2022. Additional studies were identified through reference lists and related reviews. The risk of bias was assessed using the PROBAST prediction model risk of bias assessment tool. Meta-analyses were performed using the random effects model, focusing on the C-statistic as a discrimination index and the observed-to-expected ratio (OE) as a calibration index. Out of 1315 initial records, 16 studies were included, with 21 external validations of six models in Asia. The validated models consisted of Framingham models, pooled cohort equations (PCEs), SCORE, Globorisk, and WHO models, combined with the results of the first four models. The pooled C-statistic for men ranged from 0.72 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.75; PCEs) to 0.76 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.78; Framingham general CVD). In women, it varied from 0.74 (95% CI 0.22 to 0.97; SCORE) to 0.79 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.83; Framingham general CVD). The pooled OE ratio for men ranged from 0.21 (95% CI 0.018 to 2.49; Framingham CHD) to 1.11 (95%CI 0.65 to 1.89; PCEs). In women, it varied from 0.28 (95%CI 0.33 to 2.33; Framingham CHD) to 1.81 (95% CI 0.90 to 3.64; PCEs). The Framingham, PCEs, and SCORE models exhibited acceptable discrimination but poor calibration in predicting the 10-year risk of CVDs in Asia. Recalibration and updates are necessary before implementing these models in the region.

Trajectory patterns of metabolic syndrome severity score and risk of type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: The available evidence indicates that the severity of metabolic syndrome tends to worsen progressively over time. We assessed the trajectory of age and sex-specific continuous MetS severity score (cMetS-S) and its association with the development of diabetes during an 18-year follow-up. METHODS: In a prospective population-based Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, 3931 eligible participants free of diabetes, aged 20-60 years, were followed at three-year intervals. We examined the trajectories of cMetS-S over nine years using latent growth mixture modeling (LGMM) and subsequent risks of incident diabetes eight years later. The prospective association of identified trajectories with diabetes was examined using the Cox proportional hazard model adjusting for age, sex, education, and family history of diabetes, physical activity, obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2), antihypertensive and lipid-lowering medication, and baseline fasting plasma glucose in a stepwise manner. RESULTS: Among 3931 participants, three cMetS-S trajectory groups of low (24.1%), medium (46.8%), and high (29.1%) were identified during the exposure period. Participants in the medium and high cMetS-S trajectory classes had HRs of 2.44 (95% CI: 1.56-3.81) and 6.81 (95% CI: 4.07-10.01) for future diabetes in fully adjusted models, respectively. Normoglycemic individuals within the high cMetS-S class had an over seven-fold increased risk of diabetes (HR: 7.12; 95% CI: 6.05-12.52). CONCLUSION: Although most adults exhibit an unhealthy metabolic score, its severity usually remains stable throughout adulthood over ten years of follow-up. The severity score of metabolic syndrome has the potential to be utilized as a comprehensive and easily measurable indicator of cardiometabolic dysfunction. It can be employed in clinical settings to detect and track individuals at a heightened risk of developing T2DM, even if their glucose levels are normal.

The effect of smoking on latent hazard classes of metabolic syndrome using latent class causal analysis method in the Iranian population.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of metabolic syndrome is increasing worldwide. Clinical guidelines consider metabolic syndrome as an all or none medical condition. One proposed method for classifying metabolic syndrome is latent class analysis (LCA). One approach to causal inference in LCA is using propensity score (PS) methods. The aim of this study was to investigate the causal effect of smoking on latent hazard classes of metabolic syndrome using the method of latent class causal analysis. METHODS: In this study, we used data from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Cohort Study (TLGS). 4857 participants aged over 20 years with complete information on exposure (smoking) and confounders in the third phase (2005-2008) were included. Metabolic syndrome was evaluated as outcome and latent variable in LCA in the data of the fifth phase (2014-2015). The step-by-step procedure for conducting causal inference in LCA included: (1) PS estimation and evaluation of overlap, (2) calculation of inverse probability-of-treatment weighting (IPTW), (3) PS matching, (4) evaluating balance of confounding variables between exposure groups, and (5) conducting LCA using the weighted or matched data set. RESULTS: Based on the results of IPTW which compared the low, medium and high risk classes of metabolic syndrome (compared to a class without metabolic syndrome), no association was found between smoking and the metabolic syndrome latent classes. PS matching which compared low and moderate risk classes compared to class without metabolic syndrome, showed that smoking increases the probability of being in the low-risk class of metabolic syndrome (OR: 2.19; 95% CI: 1.32, 3.63). In the unadjusted analysis, smoking increased the chances of being in the low-risk (OR: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.01, 2.08) and moderate-risk (OR: 1.68; 95% CI: 1.18, 2.40) classes of metabolic syndrome compared to the class without metabolic syndrome. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the results, the causal effect of smoking on latent hazard classes of metabolic syndrome can be different based on the type of PS method. In adjusted analysis, no relationship was observed between smoking and moderate-risk and high-risk classes of metabolic syndrome.

Timely referral to health centers for the prevention of cardiovascular diseases: IraPEN national program.

Introduction: The IraPEN program is an adapted version of the WHO-PEN program designed to prevent four major non-communicable diseases in Iran. This study aimed to determine the rate of compliance and related factors among individuals participating in the IraPEN program for the prevention of cardiovascular disease. Method: In this study, compliance was defined as timely referral to the health center as scheduled, and the researchers approached four pilot sites of IraPEN from March 2016 to March 2018. Sex-stratified logistic regressions were applied to investigate factors related to compliance. However, it is important to note that in this study, compliance was defined as compliance to revisit, not compliance to taking prescribed medications or behavioral lifestyle changes. Results: The total compliance rate, including timely compliance and early and late compliance, was 16.5% in men and 23.3% in women. The study found that cardiovascular risk factors such as diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and being underweight were associated with lower compliance. The higher calculated risk of CVD was associated with higher compliance, but after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors, high-risk individuals showed lower compliance. There was negligible interaction between sex and other factors for compliance. Conclusion: The compliance rate with scheduled programs for cardiovascular preventive strategies was very low, and high-risk individuals were less compliant, regardless of their high level of risk factors. The study recommends further training to increase awareness and knowledge regarding the IraPEN program and the prevention of non-communicable diseases among high-risk populations.