Etemadi regression in chemometrics: Reliability-based procedures for modeling and forecasting.

The creation of predictive models with a high degree of generalizability in chemical analysis and process optimization is of paramount importance. Nonetheless, formulating a prediction model based on collected data from chemical measurements that maximize quantitative generalizability remains a challenging task for chemometrics experts. To tackle this challenge, a range of forecasting models with varying characteristics, structures, and capabilities has been developed, utilizing either accuracy-based or reliability-based modeling strategies. While the majority of models follow the accuracy-based approach, a recently proposed reliability-based approach, known as the Etemadi approach, has shown impressive performance across various scientific fields. The Etemadi models were constructed through a reliability-based parameter estimation process in such a manner that maximizes the models' reliability. However, the foundation of modeling procedures for chemometrics purposes is built upon the assumption that high generalizability in inaccessible/test data is achieved through the accuracy-based training procedure in which errors in available historical/training data are minimized. After conducting a thorough review of the current literature, we have found that none of the forecasting models for chemometrics purposes incorporate reliability into their modeling procedures. Given the dynamic and highly sensitive nature of chemistry experiments and processes, implementing a reliable model that controls performance criteria variation is a promising strategy for achieving stable and robust forecasts. To address this research gap, this paper introduces several key innovations, which can be highlighted as follows: (1) Proposing a general design structure based on a new optimal reliability-based parameter estimation process. (2) Introducing a novel risk-based modeling strategy that minimizes the performance variation of models implemented under different conditions in chemical laboratory experiments, to generate a more generalizable model for diverse applications in chemometrics. (3) Specifying the degree of influence that each reliability and accuracy factor has in enhancing the generalizability and uncertainty modeling of chemometric models. Empirical evidence confirms the effectiveness and superior performance of reliability-based models compared to accuracy-based models in 78.95% of the cases across various fields, including Pharmacology, Biochemistry, Agrochemical, Geochemical, Biological, Pollutants, Physicochemical Properties, and Gases Experiment. Furthermore, the study's findings demonstrate that the reliability-based modeling approach outperforms the accuracy-based strategy in terms of MAE, MSE, ARV, and RMSE by an average of 4.697%, 5.646%, 5.646%, and 4.342%, respectively. It is also statistically proven that reliability has a more significant impact on improving the generalizability of chemometric models than accuracy. This emphasizes the importance of including reliability as a crucial factor in chemometrics modeling, a consideration that has been overlooked in traditional modeling processes. Consequently, reliability-based modeling approaches can be regarded as a viable alternative to conventional accuracy-based modeling methods for chemical modeling purposes.

A novel discrete learning-based intelligent methodology for breast cancer classification purposes.

Classification is one of the most significant subfields of data mining that has been successfully applied to various applications. The literature has expended substantial effort to present more efficient and accurate classification models. Despite the diversity of the proposed models, they were all created using the same methodology, and their learning processes ignored a fundamental issue. In all existing classification model learning processes, a continuous distance-based cost function is optimized to estimate the unknown parameters. The classification problem's objective function is discrete. Consequently, applying a continuous cost function to a classification problem with a discrete objective function is illogical or inefficient. This paper proposes a novel classification methodology utilizing a discrete cost function in the learning process. To this end, one of the most popular intelligent classification models, the multilayer perceptron (MLP), is used to implement the proposed methodology. Theoretically, the classification performance of the proposed discrete learning-based MLP (DIMLP) model is not dissimilar to that of its continuous learning-based counterpart. Nevertheless, in this study, to demonstrate the efficacy of the DIMLP model, it was applied to several breast cancer classification datasets, and its classification rate was compared to that of the conventional continuous learning-based MLP model. The empirical results indicate that the proposed DIMLP model outperforms the MLP model across all datasets. The results demonstrate that the presented DIMLP classification model achieves an average classification rate of 94.70 %, a 6.95 % improvement over the classification rate of the traditional MLP model, which was 88.54 %. Therefore, the classification approach proposed in this study can be utilized as an alternative learning process in intelligent classification methods for medical decision-making and other classification applications, particularly when more accurate results are required.

Intelligent Discrete Deep Learning Based Classification Methodology in Chemometrics.

In recent years, deep learning models have attracted much attention for classification purposes in chemometrics. The popularity of deep learning models in this field comes from their unique features like universal approximation capability with the desired accuracy. Deep learning classifiers use several intelligent processing layers to model mixed, complex, and nonlinear patterns in the underlying data sets, which is why the development of deep learning based models has never been stopped in the chemometrics literature. Despite the variety of deep learning classification models used in this field, they all use a continuous distance-based cost function in their learning processes. Although using a continuous cost function for learning deep classifiers is a common approach, it conflicts with the discrete nature of the classification problem. In fact, applying a continuous cost function for inherently discrete classification problems can reduce the performance of the classification. In this research, a novel discrete learning based classification approach is proposed and implemented on a deep feed-forward neural network as one of the most commonly used deep learning models to develop a different learning process for deep classification models. The basis of the proposed learning approach is maximizing a discrete matching function of the actual and fitted values instead of minimizing a continuous distance-based cost function. The proposed classification approach is evaluated on five benchmark data sets in the chemistry field. The empirical results indicated the superiority of the proposed discrete deep learning approach over its classic continuous form. The results of this study demonstrate the important effect of discrete learning processes on the performances of deep learning classification models. Therefore, the proposed methodology can be a powerful alternative to common classification approaches to analyze chemical data in the chemometrics field.

A novel reliability-based regression model to analyze and forecast the severity of COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus outbreak (SARS-CoV-2) has become a serious threat to human society all around the world. Due to the rapid rate of disease outbreaks and the severe shortages of medical resources, predicting COVID-19 disease severity continues to be a challenge for healthcare systems. Accurate prediction of severe patients plays a vital role in determining treatment priorities, effective management of medical facilities, and reducing the number of deaths. Various methods have been used in the literature to predict the severity prognosis of COVID-19 patients. Despite the different appearance of the methods, they all aim to achieve generalizable results by increasing the accuracy and reducing the errors of predictions. In other words, accuracy is considered the only effective factor in the generalizability of models. In addition to accuracy, reliability and consistency of results are other critical factors that must be considered to yield generalizable medical predictions. Since the role of reliability in medical decisions is significant, upgrading reliable medical data-driven models requires more attention. METHODS: This paper presents a new modeling technique to specify and maximize the reliability of results in predicting the severity prognosis of COVID-19 patients. We use the well-known classic regression as the basic model to implement our proposed procedure on it. To assess the performance of the proposed model, it has been applied to predict the severity prognosis of COVID-19 by using a dataset including clinical information of 46 COVID-19 patients. The dataset consists of two types of patients' outcomes including mild (discharge) and severe (ICU or death). To measure the efficiency of the proposed model, we compare the accuracy of the proposed model to the classic regression model. RESULTS: The proposed reliability-based regression model, by achieving 98.6% sensitivity, 88.2% specificity, and 93.10% accuracy, has better performance than classic accuracy-based regression model with 95.7% sensitivity, 85.5% specificity, and 90.3% accuracy. Also, graphical analysis of ROC curve showed AUC 0.93 (95% CI 0.88-0.98) and AUC 0.90 (95% CI 0.85-0.96) for classic regression models, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Maximizing reliability in the medical forecasting models can lead to more generalizable and accurate results. The competitive results indicate that the proposed reliability-based regression model has higher performance in predicting the deterioration of COVID-19 patients compared to the classic accuracy-based regression model. The proposed framework can be used as a suitable alternative for the traditional regression method to improve the decision-making and triage processes of COVID-19 patients.

Accuracy versus reliability-based modelling approaches for medical decision making.

Forecasting in the medical domain is critical to the quality of decisions made by physicians, patients, and health planners. Modeling is one of the most important components of decision support systems, which are frequently used to simulate and analyze under-studied systems in order to make more appropriate decisions in medical science. In the medical modeling literature, various approaches with varying structures and characteristics have been proposed to cover a wide range of application categories and domains. Regardless of the differences between modeling approaches, all of them aim to maximize the accuracy or reliability of the results in order to achieve the most generalizable model and, as a result, a higher level of profitability decisions. Despite the theoretical significance and practical impact of reliability on generalizability, particularly in high-risk decisions and applications, a significant number of models in the fields of medical forecasting, classification, and time series prediction have been developed to maximize accuracy in mind. In other words, given the volatility of medical variables, it is also necessary to have stable and reliable forecasts in order to make sound decisions. The quality of medical decisions resulting from accuracy and reliability-based intelligent and statistical modeling approaches is compared and evaluated in this paper in order to determine the relative importance of accuracy and reliability on the quality of made decisions in decision support systems. For this purpose, 33 different case studies from the UCI in three categories of supervised modeling, namely causal forecasting, time series prediction, and classification, were considered. These cases were chosen from various domains, such as disease diagnosis (obesity, Parkinson's disease, diabetes, hepatitis, stenosis of arteries, orthopedic disease, autism) and cancer (lung, breast, cervical), experiments, therapy (immunotherapy, cryotherapy), fertility prediction, and predicting the number of patients in the emergency room and ICU. According to empirical findings, the reliability-based strategy outperformed the accuracy-based strategy in causal forecasting cases by 2.26%, classification cases by 13.49%, and time series prediction cases by 3.08%. Furthermore, compared to similar accuracy-based models, the reliability-based models can generate a 6.28% improvement. As a result, they can be considered an appropriate alternative to traditional accuracy-based models for medical decision support systems modeling purposes.

A novel reliability-based regression model for medical modeling and forecasting.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In recent decades, modeling and forecasting have played a significant role in the diagnosis and treatment of different diseases. Various forecasting models have been developed to improve data-based decision-making processes in medical systems. Although these models differ in many aspects, they all originate from the assumption that more generalizable results are achieved by more accurate models. This means that accuracy is considered as the only prominent feature to evaluate the generalizability of forecasting models. On the other side, due to the changeable medical situations and even changeable models' results, making stable and reliable performance is necessary to adopt appropriate medical decisions. Hence, reliability and stability of models' performance is another effective factor on the model's generalizability that should be taken into consideration in developing medical forecasting models. METHODS: In this paper, a new reliability-based forecasting approach is developed to address this gap and achieve more consistent performance in making medical predictions. The proposed approach is implemented on the classic regression model which is a common accuracy-based statistical method in medical fields. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model, it has been performed by using two medical benchmark datasets from UCI and obtained results are compared with the classic regression model. RESULTS: Empirical results show that the proposed model has outperformed the classic regression model in terms of error criteria such as MSE and MAE. So, the presented model can be utilized as an appropriate alternative for the traditional regression model in making effective medical decisions. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the obtained results, the proposed model can be an appropriate alternative for traditional multiple linear regression for modeling in real-world applications, especially when more generalization and/or more reliability is needed.