A new approach for location-specific seasonal outlooks of typhoon and super typhoon frequency across the Western North Pacific region.

With an average of 26 tropical cyclones (TCs) per year, the western North Pacific (WNP) is the most active TC basin in the world. Considerable exposure lies in the coastal regions of the WNP, which extends from Japan in the north to the Philippines in the south, amplifying TC related impacts, including loss of life and damage to property, infrastructure and environment. This study presents a new location-specific typhoon (TY) and super typhoon (STY) outlook for the WNP basin and subregions, including China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Using multivariate Poisson regression and considering up to nine modes of ocean-atmospheric variability and teleconnection patterns that influence WNP TC behaviour, thousands of possible predictor model combinations are compared using an automated variable selection procedure. For each location, skillful TY and STY outlooks are generated up to 6 months before the start of the typhoon season, with rolling monthly updates enabling refinement of predicted TY and STY frequency. This unparalleled lead time allows end-users to make more informed decisions before and during the typhoon season.

New Insights Into the Relationship Between Drought and Mental Health Emerging From the Australian Rural Mental Health Study.

While it is recognized that drought affects mental health, few population-based longitudinal studies quantify this relationship. In this study, we investigate the effects of drought on mental health in a rural population, and how these effects change with continued exposure to drought conditions. Using a panel dataset consisting of 6,519 observations from the Australian Rural Mental Health Study, we found a non-linear (inverted U-shape) relationship between drought exposure and mental health. Specifically, people experienced an increase of psychological distress for the first 2.5-3 years of drought, after which time this distress dissipates. These effects were maintained after controlling for demographic, social, and environmental factors. We also found that while psychological distress decreases in the later stages of drought, this does not necessarily mean people have good mental health because, for example, factors such as life satisfaction decreased as drought persisted. This is important as it highlights the need for sustained support to mitigate the long-term effects of drought on mental health that persist after the drought has apparently finished.

Using insights from water isotopes to improve simulation of surface water-groundwater interactions.

Understanding interactions between surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) is challenging because of the lack of information available and the complexity of the processes involved. In this paper, SW-GW interactions are simulated using numerical modelling integrated with insights from water isotopes. Isotope analysis can be used to (i) determine the relative contribution from different sources of water into aquifer recharge and (ii) identify areas with high SW-GW interactions. The results, for the Shiraz catchment in Iran, show that (i) SWAT-MODFLOW has better performance than stand-alone SWAT (R2 improvement from 0.50 to 0.54) and (ii) SWAT-MODFLOW calibrated with insights from isotope data (SWAT-MODFLOW-ISO) has significantly better performance than SWAT-MODFLOW (R2 improvement from 0.54 to 0.68 and RMSE reduction from 1.67 to 1.33). This demonstrates that insights into SW-GW interactions that are revealed by isotopes can be used to improve hydrological modelling performance.

Drought, Wellbeing and Adaptive Capacity: Why Do Some People Stay Well?

Drought is a threat to public health. Individual and community adaptive capacity is crucial when responding to the impacts of drought. Gaps remain in the understandings of the relationship between wellbeing and adaptive capacity, and whether increased wellbeing can lead to improved adaptive capacity (or vice versa). This paper explores the relationship between drought, wellbeing and adaptive capacity to provide insights that will inform actions to enhance adaptive capacity, and hence increase opportunities for effective drought adaptation. The theory of salutogenesis and the associated sense of coherence (SOC) are used to measure adaptive capacity and to explain why some individuals remain well and adapt to adversity while others do not. An online survey of rural residents (n = 163) in drought-affected New South Wales (NSW), Australia, was conducted from November 2018 to January 2019. Linear regression was used to model the relationships between SOC, sociodemographic factors, drought and wellbeing. Findings demonstrate that SOC is strongly correlated with wellbeing. Drought condition did not influence adaptive capacity, although adaptive capacity and drought-related stress were only weakly correlated. Increased wellbeing was found to be associated with stronger adaptive capacity and therefore, an individuals' capacity to cope with adversity, such as drought.

A new island-scale tropical cyclone outlook for southwest Pacific nations and territories.

The southwest Pacific (SWP) region is vulnerable to tropical cyclone (TC) related impacts which adversely affect people, infrastructure and economies across several nations and territories. Skilful TC outlooks are needed for this region, but the erratic nature of SWP TCs and the complex ocean-atmosphere interactions that influence TC behaviour on seasonal timescales presents significant challenges. Here, we present a new TC outlook tool for the SWP using multivariate Poisson regression with indices of multiple climate modes. This approach provides skilful, island-scale TC count outlooks from July (four months ahead of the official TC season start in November). Monthly island-scale TC frequency outlooks are generated between July and December, enabling continuous refinement of predicted TC counts before and during a TC season. Use of this approach in conjunction with other seasonal climate guidance (including dynamical models) has implications for preparations ahead of severe weather events, resilience and risk reduction.

Drought-related stress among farmers: findings from the Australian Rural Mental Health Study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate general and drought-related stress experienced by farmers at both the personal and community levels, and whether socio-demographic and community factors influence this stress. DESIGN: Multivariate analysis of data from the Australian Rural Mental Health Study (ARMHS), a longitudinal cohort study (2007-2013). SETTING: Non-metropolitan New South Wales. PARTICIPANTS: Subset of 664 ARMHS participants (at baseline) who identified as living or working on a farm. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Personal drought-related stress (PDS), community drought-related stress (CDS), and general psychological distress (K10 score). RESULTS: Farmers who were under 35, both lived and worked on a farm, experienced greater financial hardship, and were in outer regional, remote or very remote NSW reported PDS particularly frequently. Of these factors, only being under 35 and increased remoteness were associated with higher incidence of CDS. Mild wet weather during the prior 12 months reduced PDS and CDS but increased general distress. Moderate or extreme wet weather did not affect PDS or general distress, but moderate wet weather was associated with increased CDS. Drought-related stress and general psychological distress were influenced by different socio-demographic and community factors. CONCLUSIONS: Farmers in NSW experience significant stress about the effects of drought on themselves, their families, and their communities. Farmers who are younger, live and work on a farm, experience financial hardship, or are isolated are at particular risk of drought-related stress. Medical practitioners who provide assistance to farmers and farming communities can contribute to initiatives that relieve stress about drought.

2020s scenario analysis of nutrient load in the Mekong River Basin using a distributed hydrological model.

A distributed hydrological model, YHyM, was integrated with the export coefficient concept and applied to simulate the nutrient load in the Mekong River Basin. In the validation period (1992-1999), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 76.4% for discharge, 65.9% for total nitrogen, and 45.3% for total phosphorus at Khong Chiam. Using the model, scenario analysis was then performed for the 2020s taking into account major anthropogenic factors: climate change, population, land cover, fertilizer use, and industrial waste water. The results show that the load at Kompong Cham in 2020s is 6.3 x 10(4)tN a(-1) (+13.0% compared to 1990s) and 4.3 x 10(3)tP a(-1) (+24.7%). Overall, the noticeable nutrient sources are cropland in the middle region and urban load in the lower region. The installation of waste water treatment plants in urban areas possibly cut 60.6%N and 19.9%P of the estimated increase in the case without any treatment.