Inherently high uncertainty in predicting the time evolution of epidemics.

OBJECTIVES: Amid the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), with its high infectivity, we have relied on mathematical models to predict the temporal evolution of the disease. This paper aims to show that, due to active behavioral changes of individuals and the inherent nature of infectious diseases, it is complicated and challenging to predict the temporal evolution of epidemics. METHODS: A modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-hospitalized-removed (SEIHR) compartment model with a discrete feedback-controlled transmission rate was proposed to incorporate individuals' behavioral changes into the model. To figure out relative uncertainties in the infection peak time and the fraction of the infected population at the peak, a deterministic method and 2 stochastic methods were applied. RESULTS: A relatively small behavioral change of individuals with a feedback constant of 0.02 in the modified SEIHR model resulted in a peak time delay of up to 50% using the deterministic method. Incorporating stochastic methods into the modified model with a feedback constant of 0.04 suggested that the relative random uncertainty of the maximum fraction of infections and that of the peak time for a population of 1 million reached 29% and 9%, respectively. Even without feedback, the relative uncertainty of the peak time increased by up to 20% for a population of 100,000. CONCLUSIONS: It is shown that uncertainty originates from stochastic properties of infections. Without a proper selection of the evolution scenario, active behavioral changes of individuals could serve as an additional source of uncertainty.

Sulfonanilide Derivatives in Identifying Novel Aromatase Inhibitors by Applying Docking, Virtual Screening, and MD Simulations Studies.

Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of death noticed in women across the world. Of late the most successful treatments rendered are the use of aromatase inhibitors (AIs). In the current study, a two-way approach for the identification of novel leads has been adapted. 81 chemical compounds were assessed to understand their potentiality against aromatase along with the four known drugs. Docking was performed employing the CDOCKER protocol available on the Discovery Studio (DS v4.5). Exemestane has displayed a higher dock score among the known drug candidates and is labeled as reference. Out of 81 ligands 14 have exhibited higher dock scores than the reference. In the second approach, these 14 compounds were utilized for the generation of the pharmacophore. The validated four-featured pharmacophore was then allowed to screen Chembridge database and the potential Hits were obtained after subjecting them to Lipinski's rule of five and the ADMET properties. Subsequently, the acquired 3,050 Hits were escalated to molecular docking utilizing GOLD v5.0. Finally, the obtained Hits were consequently represented to be ideal lead candidates that were escalated to the MD simulations and binding free energy calculations. Additionally, the gene-disease association was performed to delineate the associated disease caused by CYP19A1.

QSAR modeling to design selective histone deacetylase 8 (HDAC8) inhibitors.

HDAC8 inhibitors have become an attractive treatment for cancer. This study aimed to facilitate the identification of potential chemical scaffolds for the selective inhibition of histone deacetylase 8 (HDAC8) using in silico approaches. Non-linear QSAR classification and regression models of HDAC8 inhibitors were developed with support vector machine. Mean impact value-based sequential forward feature selection and grid search strategy were used for molecular descriptor selection and parameter optimization, respectively. The generated QSAR models were validated by leave-one-out cross validation and an external test set. The best QSAR classification model yielded 84 % of accuracy on the external test prediction and Matthews correlation coefficient is 0.69. The best QSAR regression model showed low root-mean-square error (0.63) and high squared correlation coefficient (0.53) for the test set. The validated QSAR models together with various drug-like properties, molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulation were sequentially used as a multi-step query in chemical database virtual screening. Finally, two hit compounds were discovered as new structural scaffolds which can be used for further in vitro and in vivo activity analyses. The strategy used in this study could be a promising computational strategy which can be utilized for other target drug design.

Molecular interactions of UvrB protein and DNA from Helicobacter pylori: Insight into a molecular modeling approach.

Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) persevere in the human stomach, an environment in which they encounter many DNA-damaging conditions, including gastric acidity. The pathogenicity of H. pylori is enhanced by its well-developed DNA repair mechanism, thought of as 'machinery,' such as nucleotide excision repair (NER). NER involves multi-enzymatic excinuclease proteins (UvrABC endonuclease), which repair damaged DNA in a sequential manner. UvrB is the central component in prokaryotic NER, essential for damage recognition. Therefore, molecular modeling studies of UvrB protein from H. pylori are carried out with homology modeling and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The results reveal that the predicted structure is bound to a DNA hairpin with 3-bp stem, an 11-nucleotide loop, and 3-nt 3' overhang. In addition, a mutation of the Y96A variant indicates reduction in the binding affinity for DNA. Free-energy calculations demonstrate the stability of the complex and help identify key residues in various interactions based on residue decomposition analysis. Stability comparative studies between wild type and mutant protein-DNA complexes indicate that the former is relatively more stable than the mutant form. This predicted model could also be useful in designing new inhibitors for UvrB protein, as well as preventing the pathogenesis of H. pylori.

Novel chemical scaffolds of the tumor marker AKR1B10 inhibitors discovered by 3D QSAR pharmacophore modeling.

AIM: Recent evidence suggests that aldo-keto reductase family 1 B10 (AKR1B10) may be a potential diagnostic or prognostic marker of human tumors, and that AKR1B10 inhibitors offer a promising choice for treatment of many types of human cancers. The aim of this study was to identify novel chemical scaffolds of AKR1B10 inhibitors using in silico approaches. METHODS: The 3D QSAR pharmacophore models were generated using HypoGen. A validated pharmacophore model was selected for virtual screening of 4 chemical databases. The best mapped compounds were assessed for their drug-like properties. The binding orientations of the resulting compounds were predicted by molecular docking. Density functional theory calculations were carried out using B3LYP. The stability of the protein-ligand complexes and the final binding modes of the hit compounds were analyzed using 10 ns molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. RESULTS: The best pharmacophore model (Hypo 1) showed the highest correlation coefficient (0.979), lowest total cost (102.89) and least RMSD value (0.59). Hypo 1 consisted of one hydrogen-bond acceptor, one hydrogen-bond donor, one ring aromatic and one hydrophobic feature. This model was validated by Fischer's randomization and 40 test set compounds. Virtual screening of chemical databases and the docking studies resulted in 30 representative compounds. Frontier orbital analysis confirmed that only 3 compounds had sufficiently low energy band gaps. MD simulations revealed the binding modes of the 3 hit compounds: all of them showed a large number of hydrogen bonds and hydrophobic interactions with the active site and specificity pocket residues of AKR1B10. CONCLUSION: Three compounds with new structural scaffolds have been identified, which have stronger binding affinities for AKR1B10 than known inhibitors.

Structural Identification of a Non-Glycosylated Variant at Ser126 for O-Glycosylation Site from EPO BRP, Human Recombinant Erythropoietin by LC/MS Analysis.

A variant peak was detected in the analysis of RP-HPLC of rHu-EPO, which has about 7% relative content. Fractions of the main and the variant peaks were pooled separately and further analyzed to identify the molecular structure of the variant peak. Total mass analysis for each peak fraction using ESI-TOF MS shows differences in molecular mass. The fraction of the main peak tends to result in higher molecular masses than the fraction of the variant. The detected masses for the variant are about 600-1000 Da smaller than those for the main peak. Peptide mapping analysis for each peak fraction using Asp-N and Glu-C shows differences in O-glycopeptide profiles at Ser126. The O-glycopeptides were not detected in the fraction of the variant. It is concluded that the variant peak is non-O-glycosylated rHu-EPO and the main peak is fully O-glycosylated rHu-EPO at Ser126.

Structural identification of modified amino acids on the interface between EPO and its receptor from EPO BRP, human recombinant erythropoietin by LC/MS analysis.

Protein modifications of recombinant pharmaceuticals have been observed both in vitro and in vivo. These modifications may result in lower efficacy, as well as bioavailability changes and antigenicity among the protein pharmaceuticals. Therefore, the contents of modification should be monitored for the quality and efficacy of protein pharmaceuticals. The interface of EPO and its receptor was visualized, and potential amino acids interacting on the interface were also listed. Two different types of modifications on the interface were identified in the preparation of rHu-EPO BRP. A UPLC/Q-TOF MS method was used to evaluate the modification at those variants. The modification of the oxidized variant was localized on the Met54 and the deamidated variants were localized on the Asn47 and Asn147. The extent of oxidation at Met54 was 3.0% and those of deamidation at Asn47 and Asn147 were 2.9% and 4.8%, respectively.

Multi-conformation dynamic pharmacophore modeling of the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ for the discovery of novel agonists.

Activation of the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ (PPARγ) is important for the treatment of type 2 diabetes and obesity through the regulation of glucose metabolism and fatty acid accumulation. Hence, the discovery of novel PPARγ agonists is necessary to overcome these diseases. In this study, a newly developed approach, multi-conformation dynamic pharmacophore modeling (MCDPM), was used for screening candidate compounds that can properly bind PPARγ. Highly populated structures obtained from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were selected by clustering analysis. Based on these structures, pharmacophore models were generated from the ligand-binding pocket and then validated to check the rationality. Consequently, two hits were retrieved as final candidates by utilizing virtual screening and molecular docking simulations. These compounds can be used in the design of novel PPARγ agonists.

Molecular modeling study on the effect of residues distant from the nucleotide-binding portion on RNA binding in Staphylococcus aureus Hfq.

Hfq is an abundant RNA-binding bacterial protein that was first identified in E. coli as a required host factor for phage Qbeta RNA replication. The pleiotrophic phenotype resulting from the deletion of Hfq predicates the importance of this protein. Two RNA-binding sites have been characterized: the proximal site which binds sRNA and mRNA and the distal site which binds poly(A) tails. Previous studies mainly focused on the key residues in the proximal site of the protein. A recent mutation study in E. coli Hfq showed that a distal residue Val43 is important for the protein function. Interestingly, when we analyzed the sequence and structure of Staphylococcus aureus Hfq using the CONSEQ server, the results elicited that more functional residues were located far from the nucleotide-binding portion (NBP). From the analysis seven individual residues Asp9, Leu12, Glu13, Lys16, Gln31, Gly34 and Asp40 were selected to investigate the conformational changes in Hfq-RNA complex due to point mutation effect of those residues using molecular dynamics simulations. Results showed a significant effect on Asn28 which is an already known highly conserved functionally important residue. Mutants D9A, E13A and K16A depicted effects on base stacking along with increase in RNA pore diameter, which is required for the threading of RNA through the pore for the post-translational modification. Further, the result of protein stability analysis by the CUPSAT server showed destabilizing effect in the most mutants. From this study we characterized a series of important residues located far from the NBP and provide some clues that those residues may affect sRNA binding in Hfq.

Toward metrological traceability for DNA fragment ratios in GM quantification. 1. Effect of DNA extraction methods on the quantitative determination of Bt176 corn by real-time PCR.

An international CCQM-P60 pilot study involving eight national metrological institutes was organized to investigate if the quantification of genetically modified (GM) corn powder by real-time PCR was affected by the DNA extraction method applied. Four commonly used extraction methods were compared for the extraction of DNA from a GM Bt176 corn powder. The CTAB-based method yielded the highest DNA template quantity and quality. A difference in the 260 nm/230 nm absorbance ratio was observed among the different extraction methods. Real-time amplification of sequences specific for endogenous genes zein and hmg as well as transgenic sequences within the cryIA(b) gene and a fragment covering the junction between the transformed DNA and the plant genome were used to determine the GM percentage. The detection of the transgenic gene was affected by the quantity and quality of template used for the PCR reaction. The Bt176 percentages measured on diluted or purified templates were statistically different depending on the extraction method applied.

Photodegradation mechanism and reaction kinetics of recombinant human interferon-alpha2a.

The photodegradation mechanism of recombinant human interferon-alpha2a (IFNalpha2a) has been investigated using absorption, fluorescence, and circular dichroism (CD) spectroscopies, and fluorescence photobleaching kinetics measurements under various conditions. After photobleaching, the absorption profile of aromatic amino acid residues in IFNalpha2a was almost absent, and an absorption profile showing a monotonic increase toward short wavelengths was observed. According to the CD spectrum analysis, partial unfolding of IFNalpha2a was accompanied by a complete loss of fluorescence. This unfolding was attributed to tryptophan-mediated photoinduced disulfide bond cleavage. Photooxygenation and photoionization of tryptophan (Trp) residues followed by subsequent radical reactions were the main photodegradation pathways of IFNalpha2a. Photobleaching kinetics was faster in acidic solution (pH 2.5) than in neutral solution (pH 7.4). The variation of photobleaching kinetics seemed to be caused by the structural differences in IFNalpha2a according to the solution pH. The relationship between the protein conformation and photobleaching rate could be explained based on the competition between excited state energy transfer and the photoionization process in Trp residues.

Expression, purification, and biochemical characterization of the intron-encoded endonuclease, I-CreII.

The ORF of the Cr.psbA4 intron of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii mediates efficient intron homing, and contains an H-N-H and possibly a GIY-YIG motif. The ORF was over-expressed in Escherichia coli without non-native amino acids, but was mostly insoluble. However, co-over-expression of E. coli chaperonins GroEL/GroES solubilized approximately 50% of the protein, which was purified by ion-exchange and heparin-affinity chromatography. Biochemical characterization showed that the protein is a double-strand-specific endonuclease that cleaves fused psbA exon 4-exon 5 DNA, and was named I-CreII. I-CreII has a relatively relaxed divalent metal ion requirement (Mg(2+), Mn(2+), Ca(2+), and Fe(2+) supported cleavage), is insensitive to salt <350 mM, and is stabilized by DNA. Cleavage of target DNA occurs close (4 nt on the top strand) to the intron-insertion site, and leaves 2-nt 3'-OH overhangs, similar to GIY-YIG endonucleases. The boundaries of the recognition sequence span approximately 30 bp, and encompass the cleavage and intron-insertion sites. Cleavage of heterologous psbA DNAs indicates the enzyme can tolerate multiple, but not all, substitutions in the recognition site. This work will facilitate further study of this novel endonuclease, which may also find use in site-specific manipulation of chloroplast DNA.

Identification of a glucokinase that generates a major glucose phosphorylation activity in the cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803.

In silico analysis of genome of the cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 identified two genes, slr0329 and sll0593, that might participate in glucose (Glc) phosphorylation (www.kazusa.or.jp/cyano). In order to determine the functions of these two genes, we generated deletion mutants, and analyzed their phenotypes and enzymatic activities. In the presence of 10 mM Glc, wild-type (WT) and slr0329 defective strain (M1) grew fast with increased respiratory activity and NADPH production, whereas the sll0593 deletion mutant (M2) failed to show any of the Glc responses. WT and M1 were not significantly different in their glucokinase activity, but M2 had 90% less activity. Therefore, we propose that Sll0593 plays a major role in the phosphorylation of glucose in Synechocystis cells.

Interaction of NtCDPK1 calcium-dependent protein kinase with NtRpn3 regulatory subunit of the 26S proteasome in Nicotiana tabacum.

Using a yeast two-hybrid system, we identified NtRpn3, a regulatory subunit of 26S proteasome, as an interacting protein of NtCDPK1 calcium-dependent protein kinase in Nicotiana tabacum. Rpn3 in yeast is an essential protein involved in proteolysis of cell cycle regulatory proteins, and the carrot homolog of Rpn3 was previously isolated as a nuclear antigen that is mainly expressed in the meristem. NtCDPK1 physically interacts with NtRpn3 in vitro in a Ca2+-independent manner and phosphorylates NtRpn3 in a Ca2+-dependent manner with Mg2+ as a cofactor. NtCDPK1 and NtRpn3 are co-localized in the nucleus, nuclear periphery, and around plasma membrane in vivo. Both NtCDPK1 and AtRpn3, an NtRpn3 homolog of Arabidopsis, are mainly expressed in the rapidly proliferating tissues including shoot and root meristems, and developing floral buds. Virus-induced gene silencing of either NtRpn3 or NtCDPK1 resulted in the phenotypes of abnormal cell morphology and premature cell death in newly emerged leaves. Finally, NtCDPK1 interacts with NtRpn3 in vivo as shown by co-immunoprecipitation. Based on these results, we propose that NtCDPK1 and NtRpn3 are interacting in a common signal transduction pathway possibly for regulation of cell division, differentiation, and cell death in tobacco.