Longitudinal patterns and predictors of response to standard-of-care therapy in lupus nephritis: data from the Accelerating Medicines Partnership Lupus Network.

BACKGROUND: Leveraging the Accelerating Medicines Partnership (AMP) Lupus Nephritis (LN) dataset, we evaluated longitudinal patterns, rates, and predictors of response to standard-of-care therapy in patients with lupus nephritis. METHODS: Patients from US academic medical centers with class III, IV, and/or V LN and a baseline urine protein/creatinine (UPCR) ratio ≥ 1.0 (n = 180) were eligible for this analysis. Complete response (CR) required the following: (1) UPCR < 0.5; (2) normal serum creatinine (≤ 1.3 mg/dL) or, if abnormal, ≤ 125% of baseline; and (3) prednisone ≤ 10 mg/day. Partial response (PR) required the following: (1) > 50% reduction in UPCR; (2) normal serum creatinine or, if abnormal, ≤ 125% of baseline; and (3) prednisone dose ≤ 15 mg/day. RESULTS: Response rates to the standard of care at week 52 were CR = 22.2%; PR = 21.7%; non-responder (NR) = 41.7%, and not determined (ND) = 14.4%. Only 8/180 (4.4%) patients had a week 12 CR sustained through week 52. Eighteen (10%) patients attained a week 12 PR or CR and sustained their responses through week 52 and 47 (26.1%) patients achieved sustained PR or CR at weeks 26 and 52. Week 52 CR or PR attainment was associated with baseline UPCR > 3 (ORadj = 3.71 [95%CI = 1.34-10.24]; p = 0.012), > 25% decrease in UPCR from baseline to week 12 (ORadj = 2.61 [95%CI = 1.07-6.41]; p = 0.036), lower chronicity index (ORadj = 1.33 per unit decrease [95%CI = 1.10-1.62]; p = 0.003), and positive anti-dsDNA antibody (ORadj = 2.61 [95%CI = 0.93-7.33]; p = 0.069). CONCLUSIONS: CR and PR rates at week 52 were consistent with the standard-of-care response rates observed in prospective registrational LN trials. Low sustained response rates underscore the need for more efficacious therapies and highlight how critically important it is to understand the molecular pathways associated with response and non-response.

Protocol for virtual physical examination in an observational, longitudinal study evaluating virtual outcome measures in SLE.

OBJECTIVE: There is a lack of data on the use of telemedicine (TM) in SLE. SLE outcome measures remain complex, and clinicians and clinical trialists have raised concerns about the accuracy of virtual disease activity measures. This study evaluates the level of agreement between virtual SLE outcome measures and face-to-face (F2F) encounter. Here, we describe the study design, virtual physical examination protocol and demographics for the first 50 patients evaluated. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is an observational, longitudinal study of 200 patients with SLE with varying levels of disease activity from 4 academic lupus centres serving diverse populations. Each study participant will be evaluated at a baseline and a follow-up visit. At each visit, participants are evaluated by the same physician first via a videoconference-based TM and then a F2F encounter. For this protocol, virtual physical examination guidelines relying on physician-directed patient self-examination were established. SLE disease activity measures will be completed immediately after the TM encounter and repeated after the F2F encounter for each visit. The degree of agreement between TM and F2F disease activity measures will be analysed using the Bland-Altman method. An interim analysis is planned after the enrolment of the first 50 participants. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been reviewed by the Columbia University Medical Center Institutional Review Board (IRB Protocol #: AAAT6574). The full results of this study will be published after the final data analysis of 200 patients. The abrupt shift to TM visits due to the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted clinical practice and clinical trials. Establishing a high level of agreement between SLE disease activity measures obtained with videoconference TM and F2F at the same time point, will allow for improved assessment of disease activity when F2F data cannot be acquired. This information may guide both medical decision-making and provide reliable outcome measures for clinical research.

Adverse pregnancy outcomes in women with systemic lupus erythematosus: can we improve predictions with machine learning?

OBJECTIVES: Nearly 20% of pregnancies in patients with SLE result in an adverse pregnancy outcome (APO). We previously developed an APO prediction model using logistic regression and data from Predictors of pRegnancy Outcome: bioMarkers In Antiphospholipid Antibody Syndrome and Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (PROMISSE), a large multicentre study of pregnant women with mild/moderate SLE and/or antiphospholipid antibodies. Our goal was to determine whether machine learning (ML) approaches improve APO prediction and identify other risk factors. METHODS: The PROMISSE data included 41 predictors from 385 subjects; 18.4% had APO (preterm delivery due to placental insufficiency/pre-eclampsia, fetal/neonatal death, fetal growth restriction). Logistic regression with stepwise selection (LR-S), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), random forest (RF), neural network (NN), support vector machines (SVM-RBF), gradient boosting (GB) and SuperLearner (SL) were compared by cross-validated area under the ROC curve (AUC) and calibration. RESULTS: Previously identified APO risk factors, antihypertensive medication use, low platelets, SLE disease activity and lupus anticoagulant (LAC), were confirmed as important with each algorithm. LASSO additionally revealed potential interactions between LAC and anticardiolipin IgG, among others. SL performed the best (AUC=0.78), but was statistically indistinguishable from LASSO, SVM-RBF and RF (AUC=0.77 for all). LR-S, NN and GB had worse AUC (0.71-0.74) and calibration scores. CONCLUSIONS: We predicted APO with reasonable accuracy using variables routinely assessed prior to the 12th week of pregnancy. LASSO and some ML methods performed better than a standard logistic regression approach. Substantial improvement in APO prediction will likely be realised, not with increasingly complex algorithms but by the discovery of new biomarkers and APO risk factors.

Evaluation of Immune Response and Disease Status in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Patients Following SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate seroreactivity and disease flares after COVID-19 vaccination in a multiethnic/multiracial cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: Ninety SLE patients and 20 healthy controls receiving a complete COVID-19 vaccine regimen were included. IgG seroreactivity to the SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor-binding domain (RBD) and SARS-CoV-2 microneutralization were used to evaluate B cell responses; interferon-γ (IFNγ) production was measured by enzyme-linked immunospot (ELISpot) assay in order to assess T cell responses. Disease activity was measured by the hybrid SLE Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI), and flares were identified according to the Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment-SLEDAI flare index. RESULTS: Overall, fully vaccinated SLE patients produced significantly lower IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 spike RBD compared to fully vaccinated controls. Twenty-six SLE patients (28.8%) generated an IgG response below that of the lowest control (<100 units/ml). In logistic regression analyses, the use of any immunosuppressant or prednisone and a normal anti-double-stranded DNA antibody level prior to vaccination were associated with decreased vaccine responses. IgG seroreactivity to the SARS-CoV-2 spike RBD strongly correlated with the SARS-CoV-2 microneutralization titers and correlated with antigen-specific IFNγ production determined by ELISpot. In a subset of patients with poor antibody responses, IFNγ production was similarly diminished. Pre- and postvaccination SLEDAI scores were similar in both groups. Postvaccination flares occurred in 11.4% of patients; 1.3% of these were severe. CONCLUSION: In a multiethnic/multiracial study of SLE patients, 29% had a low response to the COVID-19 vaccine which was associated with receiving immunosuppressive therapy. Reassuringly, severe disease flares were rare. While minimal protective levels remain unknown, these data suggest that protocol development is needed to assess the efficacy of booster vaccination.

Subgroup discovery in non-inferiority trials.

Approaches and guidelines for performing subgroup analysis to assess heterogeneity of treatment effect in clinical trials have been the topic of numerous papers in the statistical and clinical literature, but have been discussed predominantly in the context of conventional superiority trials. Concerns about treatment heterogeneity are the same if not greater in non-inferiority (NI) trials, especially since overall similarity between two treatment arms in a successful NI trial could be due to the existence of qualitative interactions that are more likely when comparing two active therapies. Even in unsuccessful NI trials, subgroup analyses can yield important insights about the potential reasons for failure to demonstrate non-inferiority of the experimental therapy. Recent NI trials have performed a priori subgroup analyses using standard statistical tests for interaction, but there is increasing interest in more flexible machine learning approaches for post-hoc subgroup discovery. The performance and practical application of such methods in NI trials have not been systematically explored, however. We considered the Virtual Twin method for the NI setting, an algorithm for subgroup identification that combines random forest with classification and regression trees, and conducted extensive simulation studies to examine its performance under different NI trial conditions and to devise decision rules for selecting the final subgroups. We illustrate the utility of the method with data from a NI trial that was conducted to compare two acupuncture treatments for chronic musculoskeletal pain.

Evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody reactivity in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: analysis of a multi-racial and multi-ethnic cohort.

BACKGROUND: Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are at risk of developing COVID-19 due to underlying immune abnormalities and regular use of immunosuppressant medications. We aimed to evaluate the presence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in patients with SLE with or without previous COVID-19-related symptoms or RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: For this analysis, we included patients with SLE from two cohorts based in New York City: the Web-based Assessment of Autoimmune, Immune-Mediated and Rheumatic Patients during the COVID-19 pandemic (WARCOV) study; and the NYU Lupus Cohort (a prospective registry of patients at NYU Langone Health and NYC Health + Hospitals/Bellevue). Patients in both cohorts were tested for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies via commercially available immunoassays, processed through hospital or outpatient laboratories. Patients recruited from the NYU Lupus Cohort, referred from affiliated providers, or admitted to hospital with COVID-19 were tested for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies as part of routine surveillance during follow-up clinical visits. FINDINGS: 329 patients with SLE were included in this analysis, 146 from the WARCOV study and 183 from the NYU Lupus Cohort, and were tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies between April 29, 2020, and Feb 9, 2021. 309 (94%) were women and 91 (28%) were of Hispanic ethnicity. 51 (16%) of 329 patients had a positive SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody test. Seropositive patients were more likely than seronegative patients to be Hispanic (24 [47%] of 51 vsz 67 [24%] of 278). Other demographic variables, SLE-specific factors, and immunosuppressant use were not associated with SARS-CoV-2 positivity. Of the 29 patients with COVID-19 previously confirmed by RT-PCR, 18 (62%) were on immunosuppressants; 24 (83%) of 29 patients tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies. Of 17 patients who had symptoms of COVID-19 but negative concurrent RT-PCR testing, one (6%) developed an antibody response. Of 26 patients who had COVID-19-related symptoms but did not undergo RT-PCR testing, six (23%) developed an antibody response. Of 83 patients who had no symptoms of COVID-19 and no RT-PCR testing, four (5%) developed an antibody response. Among 36 patients who were initially SARS-CoV-2 IgG positive, the majority maintained reactivity serially (88% up to 10 weeks, 83% up to 20 weeks, and 80% up to 30 weeks). Seven (70%) of ten patients with confirmed COVID-19 had antibody positivity beyond 30 weeks from disease onset. INTERPRETATION: Most patients with SLE and confirmed COVID-19 were able to produce and maintain a serological response despite the use of a variety of immunosuppressants, providing reassurance about the efficacy and durability of humoral immunity and possible protection against re-infection with SARS-CoV-2. FUNDING: National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases, National Institutes of Health, and Bloomberg Philanthropies COVID-19 Response Initiative Grant.

Autoantibody-mediated impairment of DNASE1L3 activity in sporadic systemic lupus erythematosus.

Antibodies to double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) are prevalent in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), particularly in patients with lupus nephritis, yet the nature and regulation of antigenic cell-free DNA (cfDNA) are poorly understood. Null mutations in the secreted DNase DNASE1L3 cause human monogenic SLE with anti-dsDNA autoreactivity. We report that >50% of sporadic SLE patients with nephritis manifested reduced DNASE1L3 activity in circulation, which was associated with neutralizing autoantibodies to DNASE1L3. These patients had normal total plasma cfDNA levels but showed accumulation of cfDNA in circulating microparticles. Microparticle-associated cfDNA contained a higher fraction of longer polynucleosomal cfDNA fragments, which bound autoantibodies with higher affinity than mononucleosomal fragments. Autoantibodies to DNASE1L3-sensitive antigens on microparticles were prevalent in SLE nephritis patients and correlated with the accumulation of cfDNA in microparticles and with disease severity. DNASE1L3-sensitive antigens included DNA-associated proteins such as HMGB1. Our results reveal autoantibody-mediated impairment of DNASE1L3 activity as a common nongenetic mechanism facilitating anti-dsDNA autoreactivity in patients with severe sporadic SLE.

Discontinuation of hydroxychloroquine in older patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: a multicenter retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Although hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) is a mainstay of treatment for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), ocular toxicity can result from accumulated exposure. As the longevity of patients with SLE improves, data are needed to balance the risk of ocular toxicity and the risk of disease flare, especially in older patients with quiescent disease. Accordingly, this study was initiated to examine the safety of HCQ withdrawal in older SLE patients. METHODS: Data were obtained by retrospective chart review at three major lupus centers in New York City. Twenty-six patients who discontinued HCQ and thirty-two patients on HCQ matched for gender, race/ethnicity, and age were included in this study. The primary outcome was the occurrence of a lupus flare classified by the revised version of the Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus: National Assessment version of the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SELENA-SLEDAI) Flare composite index, within 1 year of HCQ withdrawal or matched time of continuation. RESULTS: Five patients (19.2%) in the HCQ withdrawal group compared to five (15.6%) in the HCQ continuation group experienced a flare of any severity (odds ratio [OR] = 1.28; 95% CI 0.31, 5.30; p = 0.73). There were no severe flares in either group. The results were similar after adjusting for length of SLE, number of American College of Rheumatology criteria, low complement levels, and SELENA-SLEDAI score, and in a propensity score analysis (OR = 1.18; 95% CI 0.23, 6.16; p = 0.84). The analysis of time to any flare revealed a non-significant earlier time to flare in the HCQ withdrawal group (log-rank p = 0.67). Most flares were in the cutaneous and musculoskeletal systems, but one patient in the continuation group developed pericarditis. The most common reason for HCQ withdrawal was retinal toxicity (42.3%), followed by patient's preference (34.6%), other confirmed or suspected adverse effects (15.4%), ophthalmologist recommendation for macular degeneration (3.8%), and rheumatologist recommendation for quiescent SLE (3.8%). CONCLUSIONS: In this retrospective study of older stable patients with SLE on long-term HCQ, withdrawal did not significantly increase the risk of flares.

Leveraging the United States Epicenter to Provide Insights on COVID-19 in Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) affected by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to analyze associations of comorbidities and medications on infection outcomes. METHODS: Patients with SLE and reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19 were identified through an established New York University lupus cohort, query of 2 hospital systems, and referrals from rheumatologists. Data were prospectively collected via a web-based questionnaire and review of medical records. Data on baseline characteristics were obtained for all patients with COVID-19 to analyze risk factors for hospitalization. Data were also collected on asymptomatic patients and those with COVID-19-like symptoms who tested negative or were not tested. Statistical analyses were limited to confirmed COVID-19-positive patients. RESULTS: A total of 226 SLE patients were included: 41 with confirmed COVID-19, 19 who tested negative for COVID-19, 42 with COVID-19-like symptoms who did not get tested, and 124 who remained asymptomatic without testing. Of the SLE patients with confirmed COVID-19, hospitalization was required in 24 (59%) and intensive care unit-level of care in 4, and 4 died. Hospitalized patients tended to be older, nonwhite, Hispanic, have higher body mas index (BMI), history of nephritis, and at least 1 comorbidity. An exploratory (due to limited sample size) logistic regression analysis identified race, presence of at least 1 comorbidity, and BMI as independent predictors of hospitalization. CONCLUSION: In general, the variables predictive of hospitalization in our SLE patients were similar to those identified in the general population. Further studies are needed to understand additional risk factors for poor COVID-19 outcomes in patients with SLE.

Low frequency of flares during pregnancy and post-partum in stable lupus patients.

BACKGROUND: Lupus patients are at risk for pregnancy loss, and it has been generally accepted that women with SLE should have low disease activity prior to conception. However, there are conflicting results regarding the effect of pregnancy on SLE flares. This study aims to identify predictors of flares during and after pregnancy in SLE patients with inactive or stable disease activity during the first trimester and to characterize and estimate the frequency of post-partum flares in these patients. METHODS: SLE patients in the multicenter, prospective PROMISSE (Predictors of Pregnancy Outcome: Biomarkers in Antiphospholipid Antibody Syndrome and Systemic Lupus Erythematosus) study were evaluated for flares during and after pregnancy using the SELENA-SLEDAI Flare Index. Flares during pregnancy were assessed in all 384 patients and post-partum flares in 234 patients with study visits 2-6 months post-partum. Logistic regression models were fit to the data to identify independent risk factors for flare. RESULTS: During pregnancy, 20.8% of patients had mild/moderate flares and 6.25% had severe. Post-partum, 27.7% of patients had mild/moderate flares and 1.7% had severe. The mild flares rarely required treatment. Younger age, low C4 and higher PGA at baseline were independently associated with higher risk of having at least one mild/moderate or severe flare during pregnancy. Older patients were at decreased risk of flare, as well as those with quiescent disease at baseline. No variables evaluated at baseline or the visit most proximal to delivery was significantly associated with risk of flare post-partum. Medications were not associated with flare during or after pregnancy. CONCLUSION: In patients with inactive or stable mild disease activity at the time of conception, lupus disease flares during and after pregnancy are typically mild and occur at similar rates. Flares during pregnancy are predicted by the patients' age and clinical and serological activity at baseline.

Factors associated with long-term cardiac dysfunction in neonatal lupus.

OBJECTIVES: Cardiac manifestations of neonatal lupus (NL) have been associated with significant morbidity and mortality; however, there is minimal information on long-term outcomes of affected individuals. This study was initiated to evaluate the presence of and the risk factors associated with cardiac dysfunction in NL after birth in multiple age groups to improve counselling, to further understand pathogenesis and to provide potential preventative strategies. METHODS: Echocardiogram reports were evaluated in 239 individuals with cardiac NL: 143 from age 0-1 year, 176 from age >1-17 years and 64 from age >17 years. Logistic regression analyses evaluated associations of cardiac dysfunction at each age group with demographic, fetal and postnatal factors, using imputation to address missing data. RESULTS: Cardiac dysfunction was identified in 22.4% at age 0-1 year, 14.8% at age >1-17 years and 28.1% at age >17 years. Dysfunction in various age groups was significantly associated with male sex, black race, lower fetal heart rates, fetal extranodal cardiac disease and length of time paced. In 106 children with echocardiograms at ages 0-1 year and >1-17 years, 43.8% with dysfunction at age 0-1 year were also affected at age >1-17 years, while the others reverted to normal. Of children without dysfunction at age 0-1 year, 8.9% developed new dysfunction between ages >1 and 17 years. Among 34 with echocardiograms at ages >1-17 years and >17 years, 6.5% with normal function at age >1-17 years developed dysfunction in adulthood. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors in fetal life can influence cardiac morbidity into adulthood.Although limited by a small number of cases, cardiac dysfunction in the first year often normalises by later childhood. New-onset dysfunction, although rare, can occur de novo after the first year.

Metabolic syndrome and risk of endometrial cancer in postmenopausal women: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a strong risk factor for endometrial cancer, but it is unclear whether metabolic syndrome (MetS) contributes to endometrial cancer risk over and above the contribution of obesity. METHODS: We examined the association of MetS and its components with risk of endometrial cancer in a sub-cohort of 24,210 women enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative cohort study. Two variants of the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III definition of the MetS were used: one including and one excluding waist circumference (WC). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association of the study exposures with disease risk. RESULTS: When WC was included in the definition, MetS showed an approximately two-fold increase in endometrial cancer risk (HR 2.20; 95% CI 1.61-3.02); however, when WC was excluded, MetS was no longer associated with risk. We also observed that women with hyperglycemia, dyslipidemia and hypertension, in combination, had almost a twofold increased risk of endometrial cancer, independent of WC (HR 1.94; 95% CI 1.09, 3.46). Glucose, and, in particular, WC and body mass index were also positively associated with risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that MetS may predict risk of endometrial cancer independent of obesity among women with the remaining four Mets components.

A method to compare the performance of two molecular diagnostic tools in the absence of a gold standard.

The paper is motivated by the problem of comparing the accuracy of two molecular tests in detecting genetic mutations in tumor samples when there is no gold standard test. Commonly used sequencing methods require a large number of tumor cells in the tumor sample and the proportion of tumor cells with mutation positivity to be above a threshold level whereas new tests aim to reduce the requirement for number of tumor cells and the threshold level. A new latent class model is proposed to compare these two tests in which a random variable is used to represent the unobserved proportion of mutation positivity so that these two tests are conditionally dependent; furthermore, an independent random variable is included to address measurement error associated with the reading from each test, while existing latent class models often assume conditional independence and do not allow measurement error. In addition, methods for calculating the sample size for a study that is sufficiently powered to compare the accuracy of two molecular tests are proposed and compared. The proposed methods are then applied to a study which aims to compare two molecular tests for detecting EGFR mutations in lung cancer patients.

Adiposity, history of diabetes, and risk of pancreatic cancer in postmenopausal women.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to examine the association of type II diabetes and anthropometric variables with risk of pancreatic cancer among postmenopausal women. METHODS: Weight, height, waist circumference, and hip circumference were measured by trained personnel, whereas history of diabetes and weight earlier in life were self-reported. Pancreatic cancer was ascertained via central review of medical records by physician adjudicators. After exclusions, 1045 cases of pancreatic cancer were diagnosed among 156,218 women over a median follow-up of approximately 18 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the associations of study factors with pancreatic cancer risk. RESULTS: Diabetes (hazards ratio (HR): 1.30; 95% confidence intervals (95% CI): 1.01-1.66), and in particular, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, and waist-to-height ratio showed positive associations with pancreatic cancer risk (HRs for highest vs. lowest level 1.38; 95% CI: 1.14-1.66, 1.40; 1.17-1.68; and 1.36; 1.13-1.64, respectively). Body mass index at the baseline showed only a borderline positive association with risk (HR: 1.21; 95% CI: 0.97-1.51). Body mass index at age 50 years, but not at ages 18 and 35 years, was also associated with increased pancreatic cancer risk. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of postmenopausal women, central adiposity and, to a lesser extent, general adiposity and a history of diabetes, were associated with increased pancreatic cancer risk.

Metabolic obesity phenotypes and risk of colorectal cancer in postmenopausal women.

Obesity has been postulated to increase the risk of colorectal cancer by mechanisms involving insulin resistance and the metabolic syndrome. We examined the associations of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, the metabolic syndrome, metabolic obesity phenotypes and homeostasis model-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR-a marker of insulin resistance) with risk of colorectal cancer in over 21,000 women in the Women's Health Initiative CVD Biomarkers subcohort. Women were cross-classified by BMI (18.5-<25.0, 25.0-<30.0 and ≥30.0 kg/m2 ) and presence of the metabolic syndrome into 6 phenotypes: metabolically healthy normal weight (MHNW), metabolically unhealthy normal weight (MUNW), metabolically healthy overweight (MHOW), metabolically unhealthy overweight (MUOW), metabolically healthy obese (MHO) and metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO). Neither BMI nor presence of the metabolic syndrome was associated with risk of colorectal cancer, whereas waist circumference showed a robust positive association. Relative to the MHNW phenotype, the MUNW phenotype was associated with increased risk, whereas no other phenotype showed an association. Furthermore, HOMA-IR was not associated with increased risk. Overall, our results do not support a direct role of metabolic dysregulation in the development of colorectal cancer; however, they do suggest that higher waist circumference is a risk factor, possibly reflecting the effects of increased levels of cytokines and hormones in visceral abdominal fat on colorectal carcinogenesis.

Serum glucose and insulin and risk of cancers of the breast, endometrium, and ovary in postmenopausal women.

Limited evidence suggests that hyperinsulinemia may contribute to the risk of breast, endometrial, and, possibly, ovarian cancer. The aim of this study was to assess the association of serum glucose and insulin with risk of these cancers in postmenopausal women, while taking into account potential confounding and modifying factors. We studied 21 103 women with fasting baseline insulin and glucose measurements in a subsample of the Women's Health Initiative. The subsample was composed of four studies within Women's Health Initiative with different selection and sampling strategies. Over a mean of 14.7 years of follow-up, 1185 breast cancer cases, 156 endometrial cancer cases, and 130 ovarian cancer cases were diagnosed. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) by quartile of glucose or insulin. Serum insulin was positively associated with breast cancer risk (multivariable-adjusted HR for highest vs. lowest quartile 1.41, 95% CI: 1.16-1.72, Ptrend<0.0003), and glucose and insulin were associated with roughly a doubling of endometrial cancer risk (for glucose: HR: 2.00, 95% CI: 1.203.35, Ptrend=0.01; for insulin: HR: 2.39, 95% CI: 1.32-4.33, Ptrend=0.008). These associations remained unchanged or were slightly attenuated after mutual adjustment, adjustment for serum lipids, and assessment of possible reverse causation. Glucose and insulin showed no association with ovarian cancer. Our findings provide support for a role of insulin-related pathways in the etiology of cancers of the breast and endometrium. However, because of the unrepresentative nature of the sample, our results need confirmation in other populations.

Complement activation predicts adverse pregnancy outcome in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus and/or antiphospholipid antibodies.

OBJECTIVE: Studies in mouse models implicate complement activation as a causative factor in adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs). We investigated whether activation of complement early in pregnancy predicts APOs in women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and/or antiphospholipid (aPL) antibodies. METHODS: The PROMISSE Study enrolled pregnant women with SLE and/or aPL antibodies (n=487) and pregnant healthy controls (n=204) at <12 weeks gestation and evaluated them monthly. APOs were: fetal/neonatal death, preterm delivery <36 weeks because of placental insufficiency or preeclampsia and/or growth restriction <5th percentile. Complement activation products were measured on serial blood samples obtained at each monthly visit. RESULTS: APO occurred in 20.5% of SLE and/or aPL pregnancies. As early as 12-15 weeks, levels of Bb and sC5b-9 were significantly higher in patients with APOs and remained elevated through 31 weeks compared with those with normal outcomes. Moreover, Bb and sC5b-9 were significantly higher in patients with SLE and/or aPL without APOs compared with healthy controls. In logistic regression analyses, Bb and sC5b-9 at 12-15 weeks remained significantly associated with APO (ORadj=1.41 per SD increase; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.89; P=0.019 and ORadj=1.37 per SD increase; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.80; P=0.022, respectively) after controlling for demographic and clinical risk factors for APOs in PROMISSE. When analyses were restricted to patients with aPL (n=161), associations between Bb at 12-15 weeks and APOs became stronger (ORadj=2.01 per SD increase; 95% CI 1.16 to 3.49; P=0.013). CONCLUSION: In pregnant patients with SLE and/or aPL, increased Bb and sC5b-9 detectable early in pregnancy are strongly predictive of APOs and support activation of complement, particularly the alternative pathway, as a contributor to APOs.

Serum lipids and risk of obesity-related cancers in postmenopausal women.

PURPOSE: Obesity, which is commonly accompanied by dyslipidemia, is associated with an increased risk of certain cancers. However, the association of serum lipids with specific obesity-related cancers is unclear. METHODS: We examined the association of baseline lipids (total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C], and triglycerides) with risk of developing seven obesity-related cancers in a subcohort of 24,208 participants in the Women's Health Initiative. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for quartiles of lipids with cancers of the breast, colorectum, pancreas, endometrium, ovary, and kidney, and multiple myeloma. RESULTS: Total cholesterol and LDL-C showed no association with these outcomes. HDL-C was inversely associated, and triglycerides were positively associated, with several cancers. However, after adjustment for other lipids or insulin, consideration of preclinical disease, and exclusion of women taking statins, most associations were attenuated and no longer significant. Only the inverse association of HDL-C with pancreatic cancer (HR for highest vs. lowest quartile 0.52, 95% CI 0.32-0.85, p for trend 0.007) and the positive association of triglycerides with kidney cancer (HR for highest vs. lowest quartile 3.21, 95% CI 1.63-6.33, p for trend = 0.0001) remained significant. However, the inverse association of HDL-C with pancreatic cancer was no longer significant when women who lost substantial weight before diagnosis were excluded. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that when possible sources of confounding and bias are taken into account there are few robust associations of lipids with obesity-related cancers.

New methods for estimating follow-up rates in cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: The follow-up rate, a standard index of the completeness of follow-up, is important for assessing the validity of a cohort study. A common method for estimating the follow-up rate, the "Percentage Method", defined as the fraction of all enrollees who developed the event of interest or had complete follow-up, can severely underestimate the degree of follow-up. Alternatively, the median follow-up time does not indicate the completeness of follow-up, and the reverse Kaplan-Meier based method and Clark's Completeness Index (CCI) also have limitations. METHODS: We propose a new definition for the follow-up rate, the Person-Time Follow-up Rate (PTFR), which is the observed person-time divided by total person-time assuming no dropouts. The PTFR cannot be calculated directly since the event times for dropouts are not observed. Therefore, two estimation methods are proposed: a formal person-time method (FPT) in which the expected total follow-up time is calculated using the event rate estimated from the observed data, and a simplified person-time method (SPT) that avoids estimation of the event rate by assigning full follow-up time to all events. Simulations were conducted to measure the accuracy of each method, and each method was applied to a prostate cancer recurrence study dataset. RESULTS: Simulation results showed that the FPT has the highest accuracy overall. In most situations, the computationally simpler SPT and CCI methods are only slightly biased. When applied to a retrospective cohort study of cancer recurrence, the FPT, CCI and SPT showed substantially greater 5-year follow-up than the Percentage Method (92%, 92% and 93% vs 68%). CONCLUSIONS: The Person-time methods correct a systematic error in the standard Percentage Method for calculating follow-up rates. The easy to use SPT and CCI methods can be used in tandem to obtain an accurate and tight interval for PTFR. However, the FPT is recommended when event rates and dropout rates are high.