Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of Philippine languages supports a rapid migration of Malayo-Polynesian languages.

The Philippines are central to understanding the expansion of the Austronesian language family from its homeland in Taiwan. It remains unknown to what extent the distribution of Malayo-Polynesian languages has been shaped by back migrations and language leveling events following the initial Out-of-Taiwan expansion. Other aspects of language history, including the effect of language switching from non-Austronesian languages, also remain poorly understood. Here we apply Bayesian phylogenetic methods to a core-vocabulary dataset of Philippine languages. Our analysis strongly supports a sister group relationship between the Sangiric and Minahasan groups of northern Sulawesi on one hand, and the rest of the Philippine languages on the other, which is incompatible with a simple North-to-South dispersal from Taiwan. We find a pervasive geographical signal in our results, suggesting a dominant role for cultural diffusion in the evolution of Philippine languages. However, we do find some support for a later migration of Gorontalo-Mongondow languages to northern Sulawesi from the Philippines. Subsequent diffusion processes between languages in Sulawesi appear to have led to conflicting data and a highly unstable phylogenetic position for Gorontalo-Mongondow. In the Philippines, language switching to Austronesian in 'Negrito' groups appears to have occurred at different time-points throughout the Philippines, and based on our analysis, there is no discernible effect of language switching on the basic vocabulary.

Language trees with sampled ancestors support a hybrid model for the origin of Indo-European languages.

The origins of the Indo-European language family are hotly disputed. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of core vocabulary have produced conflicting results, with some supporting a farming expansion out of Anatolia ~9000 years before present (yr B.P.), while others support a spread with horse-based pastoralism out of the Pontic-Caspian Steppe ~6000 yr B.P. Here we present an extensive database of Indo-European core vocabulary that eliminates past inconsistencies in cognate coding. Ancestry-enabled phylogenetic analysis of this dataset indicates that few ancient languages are direct ancestors of modern clades and produces a root age of ~8120 yr B.P. for the family. Although this date is not consistent with the Steppe hypothesis, it does not rule out an initial homeland south of the Caucasus, with a subsequent branch northward onto the steppe and then across Europe. We reconcile this hybrid hypothesis with recently published ancient DNA evidence from the steppe and the northern Fertile Crescent.

Acanthodian dental development and the origin of gnathostome dentitions.

Chondrichthyan dentitions are conventionally interpreted to reflect the ancestral gnathostome condition but interpretations of osteichthyan dental evolution in this light have proved unsuccessful, perhaps because chondrichthyan dentitions are equally specialized, or else evolved independently. Ischnacanthid acanthodians are stem-Chondrichthyes; as phylogenetic intermediates of osteichthyans and crown-chondrichthyans, the nature of their enigmatic dentition may inform homology and the ancestral gnathostome condition. Here we show that ischnacanthid marginal dentitions were statodont, composed of multicuspidate teeth added in distally diverging rows and through proximal superpositional replacement, while their symphyseal tooth whorls are comparable to chondrichthyan and osteichthyan counterparts. Ancestral state estimation indicates the presence of oral tubercles on the jaws of the gnathostome crown-ancestor; tooth whorls or tooth rows evolved independently in placoderms, osteichthyans, ischnacanthids, other acanthodians and crown-chondrichthyans. Crown-chondrichthyan dentitions are derived relative to the gnathostome crown-ancestor, which possessed a simple dentition and lacked a permanent dental lamina, which evolved independently in Chondrichthyes and Osteichthyes.

Bayesian Tip-Dated Phylogenetics in Paleontology: Topological Effects and Stratigraphic Fit.

The incorporation of stratigraphic data into phylogenetic analysis has a long history of debate but is not currently standard practice for paleontologists. Bayesian tip-dated (or morphological clock) phylogenetic methods have returned these arguments to the spotlight, but how tip dating affects the recovery of evolutionary relationships has yet to be fully explored. Here I show, through analysis of several data sets with multiple phylogenetic methods, that topologies produced by tip dating are outliers as compared to topologies produced by parsimony and undated Bayesian methods, which retrieve broadly similar trees. Unsurprisingly, trees recovered by tip dating have better fit to stratigraphy than trees recovered by other methods under both the Gap Excess Ratio (GER) and the Stratigraphic Completeness Index (SCI). This is because trees with better stratigraphic fit are assigned a higher likelihood by the fossilized birth-death tree model. However, the degree to which the tree model favors tree topologies with high stratigraphic fit metrics is modulated by the diversification dynamics of the group under investigation. In particular, when net diversification rate is low, the tree model favors trees with a higher GER compared to when net diversification rate is high. Differences in stratigraphic fit and tree topology between tip dating and other methods are concentrated in parts of the tree with weaker character signal, as shown by successive deletion of the most incomplete taxa from two data sets. These results show that tip dating incorporates stratigraphic data in an intuitive way, with good stratigraphic fit an expectation that can be overturned by strong evidence from character data. [fossilized birth-death; fossils; missing data; morphological clock; morphology; parsimony; phylogenetics.].

A Bayesian approach to dynamic homology of morphological characters and the ancestral phenotype of jawed vertebrates.

Phylogenetic analysis of morphological data proceeds from a fixed set of primary homology statements, the character-by-taxon matrix. However, there are cases where multiple conflicting homology statements can be justified from comparative anatomy. The upper jaw bones of placoderms have traditionally been considered homologous to the palatal vomer-dermopalatine series of osteichthyans. The discovery of 'maxillate' placoderms led to the alternative hypothesis that 'core' placoderm jaw bones are premaxillae and maxillae lacking external (facial) laminae. We introduce a BEAST2 package for simultaneous inference of homology and phylogeny, and find strong evidence for the latter hypothesis. Phenetic analysis of reconstructed ancestors suggests that maxillate placoderms are the most plesiomorphic known gnathostomes, and the shared cranial architecture of arthrodire placoderms, maxillate placoderms and osteichthyans is inherited. We suggest that the gnathostome ancestor possessed maxillae and premaxillae with facial and palatal laminae, and that these bones underwent divergent evolutionary trajectories in placoderms and osteichthyans.

Tip dating with fossil sites and stratigraphic sequences.

Tip dating, a method of phylogenetic analysis in which fossils are included as terminals and assigned an age, is becoming increasingly widely used in evolutionary studies. Current implementations of tip dating allow fossil ages to be assigned as a point estimate, or incorporate uncertainty through the use of uniform tip age priors. However, the use of tip age priors has the unwanted effect of decoupling the ages of fossils from the same fossil site. Here we introduce a new Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) proposal, which allows fossils from the same site to have linked ages, while still incorporating uncertainty in the age of the fossil site itself. We also include an extension, allowing fossil sites to be ordered in a stratigraphic column with age bounds applied only to the top and bottom of the sequence. These MCMC proposals are implemented in a new open-source BEAST2 package, palaeo. We test these new proposals on a dataset of early vertebrate fossils, concentrating on the effects on two sites with multiple acanthodian fossil taxa but wide age uncertainty, the Man On The Hill (MOTH) site from northern Canada, and the Turin Hill site from Scotland, both of Lochkovian (Early Devonian) age. The results show an increased precision of age estimates when fossils have linked tip ages compared to when ages are unlinked, and in this example leads to support for a younger age for the MOTH site compared with the Turin Hill site. There is also a minor effect on the tree topology of acanthodians. These new MCMC proposals should be widely applicable to studies that employ tip dating, particularly when the terminals are coded as individual specimens.

Tip dating supports novel resolutions of controversial relationships among early mammals.

The estimation of the timing of major divergences in early mammal evolution is challenging owing to conflicting interpretations of key fossil taxa. One contentious group is Haramiyida, the earliest members of which are from the Late Triassic. Many phylogenetic analyses have placed haramiyidans in a clade with multituberculates within crown Mammalia, thus extending the minimum divergence date for the crown group deep into the Triassic. A second taxon of interest is the eutherian Juramaia from the Middle-Late Jurassic Yanliao Biota, which is morphologically very similar to eutherians from the Early Cretaceous Jehol Biota and implies a very early origin for therian mammals. Here, we apply Bayesian tip-dated phylogenetic methods to investigate these issues. Tip dating firmly rejects a monophyletic Allotheria (multituberculates and haramiyidans), which are split into three separate clades, a result not found in any previous analysis. Most notably, the Late Triassic Haramiyavia and Thomasia are separate from the Middle Jurassic euharamiyidans. We also test whether the Middle-Late Jurassic age of Juramaia is 'expected' given its known morphology by assigning an age prior without hard bounds. Strikingly, this analysis supports an Early Cretaceous age for Juramaia, but similar analyses on 12 other mammaliaforms from the Yanliao Biota return the correct, Jurassic age. Our results show that analyses incorporating stratigraphic data can produce results very different from other methods. Early mammal evolution may have involved multiple instances of convergent morphological evolution (e.g. in the dentition), and tip dating may be a method uniquely suitable to recognizing this owing to the incorporation of stratigraphic data. Our results also confirm that Juramaia is anomalous in exhibiting a much more derived morphology than expected given its age, which in turn implies very high rates of evolution at the base of therian mammals.

Which morphological characters are influential in a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis? Examples from the earliest osteichthyans.

There has been much recent debate about which method is best for reconstructing the tree of life from morphological datasets. However, little attention has been paid to which characters, if any, are responsible for topological differences between trees recovered from competing methods on empirical datasets. Indeed, a simple procedure for finding characters supporting conflicting tree topologies is available in a parsimony framework, but an equivalent procedure in a model-based framework is lacking. Here, I introduce such a procedure and apply it to the problem of the 'psarolepid' osteichthyans. The 'psarolepids', which include the earliest known osteichthyans, are weakly supported as stem osteichthyans under parsimony but strongly supported as sarcopterygians in Bayesian analysis. The Bayesian result is driven by just two characters, both of which relate to the intracranial joint of sarcopterygians. Important characters that support a stem osteichthyan affinity for 'psarolepids', such as the absence of tooth enamel, have virtually no effect in a Bayesian framework. This is because of a bias towards characters with relatively complete sampling, a bias that has previously been reported for molecular data. This has important implications for Bayesian analysis of morphological datasets in general, as characters from different body parts commonly have different levels of coding completeness. Methods to critically appraise character support for conflicting phylogenetic hypotheses, such as that used here, should form an important part of phylogenetic analyses.

New information on Brindabellaspis stensioi Young, 1980, highlights morphological disparity in Early Devonian placoderms.

Acid-prepared specimens of the placoderm Brindabellaspis stensioi (Early Devonian of New South Wales, Australia) revealed placoderm endocranial anatomy in unprecedented detail. Brindabellaspis has become a key taxon in discussions of early gnathostome phylogeny, and the question of placoderm monophyly versus paraphyly. The anterior orientation of the facial nerve and related hyoid arch structures in this taxon resemble fossil osteostracans (jawless vertebrates) rather than other early gnathostomes. New specimens of Brindabellaspis now reveal the previously unknown anterior region of the skull, including an exceptionally elongate premedian bone forming a long rostrum, supported by a thin extension of the postethmo-occipital unit of the braincase. Lateral overlap surfaces indicate an unusual anterior position for the jaws. Digital rendering of a synchrotron radiation scan reveals a uniquely specialized ethmoid commissure sensory canal, doubled back and fused into a midline canal. The visceral surface of the premedian bone has a plexus of perichondral bone canals. An updated skull roof reconstruction of Brindabellaspis adds to the highly variable dermal skull patterns of the probably non-monophyletic 'acanthothoracids'. The unusual morphology revealed by the new specimens suggests that the earliest known reef fish fauna contained a diverse range of fishes with specialized ecological roles.

Neurocranial anatomy of an enigmatic Early Devonian fish sheds light on early osteichthyan evolution.

The skull of 'Ligulalepis' from the Early Devonian of Australia (AM-F101607) has significantly expanded our knowledge of early osteichthyan anatomy, but its phylogenetic position has remained uncertain. We herein describe a second skull of 'Ligulalepis' and present micro-CT data on both specimens to reveal novel anatomical features, including cranial endocasts. Several features previously considered to link 'Ligulalepis' with actinopterygians are now considered generalized osteichthyan characters or of uncertain polarity. The presence of a lateral cranial canal is shown to be variable in its development between specimens. Other notable new features include the presence of a pineal foramen, the some detail of skull roof sutures, the shape of the nasal capsules, a placoderm-like hypophysial vein, and a chondrichthyan-like labyrinth system. New phylogenetic analyses place 'Ligulalepis' as a stem osteichthyan, specifically as the sister taxon to 'psarolepids' plus crown osteichthyans. The precise position of 'psarolepids' differs between parsimony and Bayesian analyses.

Bayesian Morphological Clock Methods Resurrect Placoderm Monophyly and Reveal Rapid Early Evolution in Jawed Vertebrates.

The phylogeny of early gnathostomes provides an important framework for understanding one of the most significant evolutionary events, the origin and diversification of jawed vertebrates. A series of recent cladistic analyses have suggested that the placoderms, an extinct group of armoured fish, form a paraphyletic group basal to all other jawed vertebrates. We revised and expanded this morphological data set, most notably by sampling autapomorphies in a similar way to parsimony-informative traits, thus ensuring this data (unlike most existing morphological data sets) satisfied an important assumption of Bayesian tip-dated morphological clock approaches. We also found problems with characters supporting placoderm paraphyly, including character correlation and incorrect codings. Analysis of this data set reveals that paraphyly and monophyly of core placoderms (excluding maxillate forms) are essentially equally parsimonious. The two alternative topologies have different root positions for the jawed vertebrates but are otherwise similar. However, analysis using tip-dated clock methods reveals strong support for placoderm monophyly, due to this analysis favoring trees with more balanced rates of evolution. Furthermore, enforcing placoderm paraphyly results in higher levels and unusual patterns of rate heterogeneity among branches, similar to that generated from simulated trees reconstructed with incorrect root positions. These simulations also show that Bayesian tip-dated clock methods outperform parsimony when the outgroup is largely uninformative (e.g., due to inapplicable characters), as might be the case here. The analysis also reveals that gnathostomes underwent a rapid burst of evolution during the Silurian period which declined during the Early Devonian. This rapid evolution during a period with few articulated fossils might partly explain the difficulty in ascertaining the root position of jawed vertebrates.

Early Gnathostome Phylogeny Revisited: Multiple Method Consensus.

A series of recent studies recovered consistent phylogenetic scenarios of jawed vertebrates, such as the paraphyly of placoderms with respect to crown gnathostomes, and antiarchs as the sister group of all other jawed vertebrates. However, some of the phylogenetic relationships within the group have remained controversial, such as the positions of Entelognathus, ptyctodontids, and the Guiyu-lineage that comprises Guiyu, Psarolepis and Achoania. The revision of the dataset in a recent study reveals a modified phylogenetic hypothesis, which shows that some of these phylogenetic conflicts were sourced from a few inadvertent miscodings. The interrelationships of early gnathostomes are addressed based on a combined new dataset with 103 taxa and 335 characters, which is the most comprehensive morphological dataset constructed to date. This dataset is investigated in a phylogenetic context using maximum parsimony (MP), Bayesian inference (BI) and maximum likelihood (ML) approaches in an attempt to explore the consensus and incongruence between the hypotheses of early gnathostome interrelationships recovered from different methods. Our findings consistently corroborate the paraphyly of placoderms, all 'acanthodians' as a paraphyletic stem group of chondrichthyans, Entelognathus as a stem gnathostome, and the Guiyu-lineage as stem sarcopterygians. The incongruence using different methods is less significant than the consensus, and mainly relates to the positions of the placoderm Wuttagoonaspis, the stem chondrichthyan Ramirosuarezia, and the stem osteichthyan Lophosteus-the taxa that are either poorly known or highly specialized in character complement. Given that the different performances of each phylogenetic approach, our study provides an empirical case that the multiple phylogenetic analyses of morphological data are mutually complementary rather than redundant.

Diversification rates and phenotypic evolution in venomous snakes (Elapidae).

The relationship between rates of diversification and of body size change (a common proxy for phenotypic evolution) was investigated across Elapidae, the largest radiation of highly venomous snakes. Time-calibrated phylogenetic trees for 175 species of elapids (more than 50% of known taxa) were constructed using seven mitochondrial and nuclear genes. Analyses using these trees revealed no evidence for a link between speciation rates and changes in body size. Two clades (Hydrophis, Micrurus) show anomalously high rates of diversification within Elapidae, yet exhibit rates of body size evolution almost identical to the general elapid 'background' rate. Although correlations between speciation rates and rates of body size change exist in certain groups (e.g. ray-finned fishes, passerine birds), the two processes appear to be uncoupled in elapid snakes. There is also no detectable shift in diversification dynamics associated with the colonization of Australasia, which is surprising given that elapids appear to be the first clade of venomous snakes to reach the continent.

Epoch-based likelihood models reveal no evidence for accelerated evolution of viviparity in squamate reptiles in response to cenozoic climate change.

A broad scale analysis of the evolution of viviparity across nearly 4,000 species of squamates revealed that origins increase in frequency toward the present, raising the question of whether rates of change have accelerated. We here use simulations to show that the increased frequency is within the range expected given that the number of squamate lineages also increases with time. Novel, epoch-based methods implemented in BEAST (which allow rates of discrete character evolution to vary across time-slices) also give congruent results, with recent epochs having very similar rates to older epochs. Thus, contrary to expectations, there was no accelerated burst of origins of viviparity in response to global cooling during the Cenozoic or glacial cycles during the Plio-Pleistocene. However, if one accepts the conventional view that viviparity is more likely to evolve than to be lost, and also the evidence here that viviparity has evolved with similar regularity throughout the last 200 Ma, then the absence of large, ancient clades of viviparous squamates (analogs to therian mammals) requires explanation. Viviparous squamate lineages might be more prone to extinction than are oviparous lineages, due to their prevalance at high elevations and latitudes and thus greater susceptibility to climate fluctuations. If so, the directional bias in character evolution would be offset by the bias in extinction rates.

Ancestral state reconstruction, rate heterogeneity, and the evolution of reptile viviparity.

Virtually all models for reconstructing ancestral states for discrete characters make the crucial assumption that the trait of interest evolves at a uniform rate across the entire tree. However, this assumption is unlikely to hold in many situations, particularly as ancestral state reconstructions are being performed on increasingly large phylogenies. Here, we show how failure to account for such variable evolutionary rates can cause highly anomalous (and likely incorrect) results, while three methods that accommodate rate variability yield the opposite, more plausible, and more robust reconstructions. The random local clock method, implemented in BEAST, estimates the position and magnitude of rate changes on the tree; split BiSSE estimates separate rate parameters for pre-specified clades; and the hidden rates model partitions each character state into a number of rate categories. Simulations show the inadequacy of traditional models when characters evolve with both asymmetry (different rates of change between states within a character) and heterotachy (different rates of character evolution across different clades). The importance of accounting for rate heterogeneity in ancestral state reconstruction is highlighted empirically with a new analysis of the evolution of viviparity in squamate reptiles, which reveal a predominance of forward (oviparous-viviparous) transitions and very few reversals.

Malpighian tubule development in the red flour beetle (Tribolium castaneum).

Malpighian tubules (MpTs) are the major organ for excretion and osmoregulation in most insects. MpT development is characterised for Drosophila melanogaster, but not other species. We therefore do not know the extent to which the MpT developmental programme is conserved across insects. To redress this we provide a comprehensive description of MpT development in the beetle Tribolium castaneum (Coleoptera), a species separated from Drosophila by >315 million years. We identify similarities with Drosophila MpT development including: 1) the onset of morphological development, beginning when tubules bud from the gut and proliferate to increase organ size. 2) the tubule is shaped by convergent-extension movements and oriented cell divisions. 3) differentiated tip cells activate EGF-signalling in distal MpT cells through the ligand Spitz. 4) MpTs contain two main cell types - principal and stellate cells, differing in morphology and gene expression. We also describe development of the beetle cryptonephridial system, an adaptation for water conservation, which represents a major modification of the MpT ground plan characterised by intimate association between MpTs and rectum. This work establishes a new model to compare MpT development across insects, and provides a framework to help understand how an evolutionary novelty - the cryptonephridial system - arose during organ evolution.