Regression modeling of combined sewer overflows to assess system performance.

Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) occur when untreated raw sewage mixed with rainwater, runoff, or snowmelt is released during or after a storm in any community with a combined sewer system (CSS). Climate change makes CSOs worse in many locales; as the frequency and severity of wet weather events increases, so do the frequency and volume of CSO events. CSOs pose risks to humans and the environment, and as such, CSS communities are under regulatory pressure to reduce CSOs. Yet, CSS communities lack the tools needed, such as performance indicators, to assess CSS performance. Using the city of Cumberland, Maryland as a case study, we use public data on CSOs and precipitation over a span of 16 years to identify a new critical rainfall intensity threshold that triggers likely CSO incidence, and a multiple linear regression model to predict CSO volume using rainfall event characteristics. Together, this indicator and modeling approach can help CSS communities assess the performance of their CSS over time, especially to evaluate the effectiveness of efforts to reduce CSOs.

Advancing the scholarship and practice of stakeholder engagement in working landscapes: a co-produced research agenda.

Participatory approaches to science and decision making, including stakeholder engagement, are increasingly common for managing complex socio-ecological challenges in working landscapes. However, critical questions about stakeholder engagement in this space remain. These include normative, political, and ethical questions concerning who participates, who benefits and loses, what good can be accomplished, and for what, whom, and by who. First, opportunities for addressing justice, equity, diversity, and inclusion interests through engagement, while implied in key conceptual frameworks, remain underexplored in scholarly work and collaborative practice alike. A second line of inquiry relates to research-practice gaps. While both the practice of doing engagement work and scholarly research on the efficacy of engagement is on the rise, there is little concerted interplay among 'on-the-ground' practitioners and scholarly researchers. This means scientific research often misses or ignores insight grounded in practical and experiential knowledge, while practitioners are disconnected from potentially useful scientific research on stakeholder engagement. A third set of questions concerns gaps in empirical understanding of the efficacy of engagement processes and includes inquiry into how different engagement contexts and process features affect a range of behavioral, cognitive, and decision-making outcomes. Because of these gaps, a cohesive and actionable research agenda for stakeholder engagement research and practice in working landscapes remains elusive. In this review article, we present a co-produced research agenda for stakeholder engagement in working landscapes. The co-production process involved professionally facilitated and iterative dialogue among a diverse and international group of over 160 scholars and practitioners through a yearlong virtual workshop series. The resulting research agenda is organized under six cross-cutting themes: (1) Justice, Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion; (2) Ethics; (3) Research and Practice; (4) Context; (5) Process; and (6) Outcomes and Measurement. This research agenda identifies critical research needs and opportunities relevant for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers alike. We argue that addressing these research opportunities is necessary to advance knowledge and practice of stakeholder engagement and to support more just and effective engagement processes in working landscapes. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42532-022-00132-8.

COVID-19 Reveals Vulnerabilities of the Food-Energy-Water Nexus to Viral Pandemics.

Food, energy, and water (FEW) sectors are inextricably linked, making one sector vulnerable to disruptions in another. Interactions between FEW systems, viral pandemics, and human health have not been widely studied. We mined scientific and news/media articles for causal relations among FEW and COVID-19 variables and qualitatively characterized system dynamics. Food systems promoted the emergence and spread of COVID-19, leading to illness and death. Major supply-side breakdowns were avoided (likely due to low morbidity/mortality among working-age people). However, COVID-19 and physical distancing disrupted labor and capital inputs and stressed supply chains, while creating economic insecurity among the already vulnerable poor. This led to demand-side FEW insecurities, in turn increasing susceptibility to COVID-19 among people with many comorbidities. COVID-19 revealed trade-offs such as allocation of water to hygiene versus to food production and disease burden avoided by physical distancing versus disease burden from increased FEW insecurities. News/media articles suggest great public interest in FEW insecurities triggered by COVID-19 interventions among individuals with low COVID-19 case-fatality rates. There is virtually no quantitative analysis of any of these trade-offs or feedbacks. Enhanced quantitative FEW and health models are urgently needed as future pandemics are likely and may have greater morbidity and mortality than COVID-19.

Quantifying uncertainty cascading from climate, watershed, and lake models in harmful algal bloom predictions.

In response to increased harmful algal blooms (HABs), hypoxia, and nearshore algae growth in Lake Erie, the United States and Canada agreed to phosphorus load reduction targets. While the load targets were guided by an ensemble of models, none of them considered the effects of climate change. Some watershed models developed to guide load reduction strategies have simulated climate effects, but without extending the resulting loads or their uncertainties to HAB projections. In this study, we integrated an ensemble of four climate models, three watershed models, and four HAB models. Nutrient loads and HAB predictions were generated for historical (1985-1999), current (2002-2017), and mid-21st-century (2051-2065) periods. For the current and historical periods, modeled loads and HABs are comparable to observations but exhibit less interannual variability. Our results show that climate impacts on watershed processes are likely to lead to reductions in future loading, assuming land use and watershed management practices are unchanged. This reduction in load should help reduce the magnitude of future HABs, although increases in lake temperature could mitigate that decrease. Using Monte-Carlo analysis to attribute sources of uncertainty from this cascade of models, we show that the uncertainty associated with each model is significant, and that improvements in all three are needed to build confidence in future projections.

Bias correction of climate model outputs influences watershed model nutrient load predictions.

Waterbodies around the world experience problems associated with elevated phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) loads. While vital for ecosystem functioning, when present in excess amounts these nutrients can impair water quality and create symptoms of eutrophication, including harmful algal blooms. Under a changing climate, nutrient loads are likely to change. While climate models can serve as inputs to watershed models, the climate models often do not adequately represent the distribution of observed data, generating uncertainties that can be addressed to some degree with bias correction. However, the impacts of bias correction on nutrient models are not well understood. This study compares 4 univariate and 3 multivariate bias correction methods, which correct precipitation and temperature variables from 4 climate models in the historical (1980-1999) and mid-century future (2046-2065) time periods. These variables served as inputs to a calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model of Lake Erie's Maumee River watershed. We compared the performance of SWAT outputs driven with climate model outputs that were bias-corrected (BC) and not bias-corrected (no-BC) for dissolved reactive P, total P, and total N. Results based on graphical comparisons and goodness of fit metrics showed that the choice of BC method impacts both the direction of change and magnitude of nutrient loads and hydrological processes. While the Delta method performed best, it should be used with caution since it considers historical variable relationships as the basis for predictions, which may not hold true under future climate. Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) and Multivariate Bias Correction N-dimensional probability density function transform (MBCn) BC methods also performed well and work well for non-stationary climate scenarios. Furthermore, results suggest that February-July cumulative load in the Maumee basin is likely to decrease in the mid-century as runoff and snowfall decrease, and evapotranspiration increases with warming temperatures.