Cost-Utility Analysis of Deep Learning and Trained Human Graders for Diabetic Retinopathy Screening in a Nationwide Program.

INTRODUCTION: Deep learning (DL) for screening diabetic retinopathy (DR) has the potential to address limited healthcare resources by enabling expanded access to healthcare. However, there is still limited health economic evaluation, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, on this subject to aid decision-making for DL adoption. METHODS: In the context of a middle-income country (MIC), using Thailand as a model, we constructed a decision tree-Markov hybrid model to estimate lifetime costs and outcomes of Thailand's national DR screening program via DL and trained human graders (HG). We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) between the two strategies. Sensitivity analyses were performed to probe the influence of modeling parameters. RESULTS: From a societal perspective, screening with DL was associated with a reduction in costs of ~ US$ 2.70, similar quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) of + 0.0043, and an incremental net monetary benefit of ~ US$ 24.10 in the base case. In sensitivity analysis, DL remained cost-effective even with a price increase from US$ 1.00 to US$ 4.00 per patient at a Thai willingness-to-pay threshold of ~ US$ 4.997 per QALY gained. When further incorporating recent findings suggesting improved compliance to treatment referral with DL, our analysis models effectiveness benefits of ~ US$ 20 to US$ 50 depending on compliance. CONCLUSION: DR screening using DL in an MIC using Thailand as a model may result in societal cost-savings and similar health outcomes compared with HG. This study may provide an economic rationale to expand DL-based DR screening in MICs as an alternative solution for limited availability of skilled human resources for primary screening, particularly in MICs with similar prevalence of diabetes and low compliance to referrals for treatment.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Vasoconstrictors Plus Albumin in the Treatment of Thai Patients with Type 1 Hepatorenal Syndrome.

PURPOSE: Type 1 hepatorenal syndrome (type 1 HRS) or hepatorenal syndrome-acute renal injury (HRS-AKI) leads to high short-term mortality rates in patients with cirrhosis. Vasoconstrictor therapy effectively improves survival of these patients and has been a bridge to liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-utility of terlipressin plus albumin (T+A) and noradrenaline plus albumin (N+A) compared to best supportive care (BSC) for treating type 1 HRS patients in Thailand. METHODS: A cost-utility analysis using a six-state Markov model was performed from societal and payer perspectives over a lifetime horizon. The clinical outcomes, costs, and utility parameters were obtained from literature, network meta-analyses, and expert opinion. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to account for uncertainty. RESULTS: The T+A yielded the highest cost (848,325 Thai Baht (THB)) and health outcomes (2.82 life-years (LY) and 2.27 quality-adjusted life-years (QALY)). Compared to BSC, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of the T+A and N+A were 377,566 and 412,979 THB per QALY gained, respectively. If N+A is administered outside the intensive care unit, the ICER was 308,964 THB per QALY. The treatment cost after liver transplantation from year 3 onwards was the most influential factor for ICERs, followed by the cost of terlipressin, duration of noradrenaline treatment, and cost of albumin. At the Thai societal willingness-to-pay threshold of 160,000 THB per QALY gained, the probabilities of being cost-effective for T+A, N+A, and BSC were 11%, 20%, and 69%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The T+A and N+A treatments would not be cost-effective compared to BSC in the Thai setting.

Survival analysis of colorectal cancer patients in a Thai hospital-based cancer registry.

Background: The study aimed to assess the overall and stage-specific colorectal cancer (CRC) survival and to identify the prognostic factors for survival among Thai patients.Research design and methods: The retrospective data of CRC patients from a university hospital-based cancer registry from 2001 to 2014 were used to estimate five-year overall survival (OS). Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank tests were used to assess the differences in five-year OS by age at diagnosis, diagnostic period, tumor site, stage at diagnosis and treatment modalities. A multivariate Cox's proportional hazard model was used to identify independent prognostic factors for the OS.Results: A total of 1,507 (48%) colon and 1,648 (52%) rectal cancer patients were included. Five-year OS for CRC patients was 44%. It differed significantly by stage, age group, and treatment received. Stage at diagnosis, age group, diagnostic period, receiving surgical and chemotherapy treatments were prognostic factors for OS.Conclusions: An increasing trend in the number of CRC patients mostly at stage III and IV was found. Our results emphasized that an improvement in CRC survival could be achieved through the adoption of advanced cancer therapies, as well as improved access to quality diagnosis and timely treatment.

Guidelines for health technology assessment in Thailand (second edition)--the development process.

The first Thai-specific HTA guidelines were completed in 2008 with the aim of ensuring that all HTA data was accurate, of high quality, and relevant for making decisions pertaining to healthcare resource allocation. Based on a quality assessment of 89 economic evaluation studies in the Thai context published in international academic journals between 1982 and 2012, the analysis revealed a significant increase in quality of data sources and result reporting in studies published after the dissemination of the first Thai HTA guidelines. As the first Thai HTA guidelines were developed in 2008, a number of areas for improvement have been identified. Therefore, the objective of this chapter is to describe the development process of this second edition of HTA guidelines for Thailand which builds on the success of the first edition, while attempting to address some of the identified limitations of the first edition and reflect the changes that the health care and policy contexts have undergone in the intervening years. It is hoped that this second edition will continue to build on these successes so that policy decision making becomes increasingly evidence-based.

Quality assessment of health economic evaluation.

In Thailand, the results of economic evaluations have increasingly been used to help improve the transparency of health technology prioritization and to inform the resource allocation decision-making process. However, variable quality can mean that application of study results can be limited. To help improve uniformity and widen the application of results, quality assessment of health economic evaluations is crucial. By subjecting health economic evaluations to a rigorous quality assessment process, decision-makers can choose to only use findings from studies that reach the appropriate standard as the basis for policy-making. This article gives a summary of the three key areas to examine when assessing quality-1) data sources, 2) result reporting and 3) and analysis methodology. It is hoped that this will help provide critical guidance to users of economic evaluation results to ensure that they understand and are able to perform quality assessment prior to applying study findings.