Real-world impact of continuous positive airway pressure on sleepiness in patients with obstructive sleep apnea in a national registry.

OBJECTIVE: Excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) persists in some patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) despite continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) treatment. This study characterized response to CPAP and factors associated with residual EDS. METHODS: Danish National Patient Registry data were analyzed. Patients with OSA diagnosis (1994-2016), Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) scores and apnea-hypopnea index recorded before beginning CPAP (baseline) and after 1-13 months of CPAP use, and CPAP adherence were included. Odds ratios (OR) for residual EDS after CPAP treatment were estimated using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 1174 patients (mean age, 57 years; 75.5% male), 41.1% had baseline EDS (mild, 13.2%; moderate, 14.0%; severe, 13.9%); 58.9% did not. After CPAP treatment, follow-up mean ESS scores were normal (≤10) for all baseline EDS subgroups; however, 15.6% (n = 183) of patients had residual EDS (mild, 6.7%; moderate, 5.5%; severe, 3.4%). Odds of residual EDS were higher for patients with mild (OR, 5.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.2-8.6), moderate (OR, 4.5; 95% CI, 2.7-7.4), and severe (OR, 13.0; 95% CI, 8.0-21.2) EDS at baseline compared with those with normal daytime sleepiness at baseline. Patients adherent with CPAP use were 38.2% less likely to have residual EDS compared with nonadherent patients (OR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.43-0.88). CONCLUSIONS: EDS was common in this cohort of Danish patients with OSA. Baseline EDS severity predicted higher odds of residual EDS. After CPAP treatment, adherence was associated with reduced odds of residual EDS, but EDS persisted in a subgroup of patients.

The clinical and economic burden of illness in the first two years after ostomy creation: a nationwide Danish cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Living with an ostomy is often associated with costly complications. This study examined the burden of illness the first two years after ostomy creation. METHODS: Data from Danish national registries included all adult Danes with an ostomy created between 2002 and 2014. RESULTS: Four cohorts consisted, respectively, of 11,385 subjects with a colostomy and 4,574 with an ileostomy, of which 1,663 subjects had inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and 1,270 colorectal cancer as cause of their ileostomy. The healthcare cost was significantly higher for cases versus matched controls for all cohorts. In the first year, the total healthcare cost per person-year was €27,962 versus €4,200 for subjects with colostomy, €29,392 versus €3,308 for subjects with ileostomy, €15,947 versus €2,216 when IBD was the underlying cause, and €32,438 versus €4,196 when it was colorectal cancer. Healthcare costs decreased in the second year but remained significantly higher than controls. Hospitalization and outpatient services were primary cost drivers, with ostomy-related complications comprising 8-16% of hospitalization expenses. CONCLUSION: Compared to controls, subjects with an ostomy bear a significant health and financial burden attributable to ostomy-related complications, in addition to the underlying disease, emphasizing the importance of better ostomy care to enhance well-being and reduce economic strain.

Risk of cancer and serious disease in Danish patients with urgent referral for serious non-specific symptoms and signs of cancer in Funen 2014-2021.

BACKGROUND: In 2011, as the first European country, Denmark introduced the non-organ-specific cancer patient pathway (CPP) for patients presenting with non-specific symptoms and signs of cancer (NSSC). The proportion of patients with cancer over time is unknown. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of all patients with a NSSC-CPP investigational course in the province of Funen to the Diagnostic Centre in Svendborg from 2014 to 2021 was performed to evaluate the proportion of patients with cancer and serious disease over time. RESULTS: A total of 6698 patients were referred to the NSSC-CPP of which 20.2% had cancer. While the crude referral rate increased from 114 per 100,000 people in 2014 and stabilised to around 214 in 2017-2021, the cancer detection rate of the total yearly new cancers in Funen diagnosed through the NSSC-CPP in DC Svendborg increased from 3 to 6%. CONCLUSIONS: With now high and stable conversion and crude referral rates, the NSSC-CPP is one of the largest CPPs in Denmark as measured by the number of new cancer cases found. Similar urgent referral programmes in other countries might fill an unmet medical need for patients presenting with serious non-specific symptoms and signs of cancer in general practice.

Health inequities and societal costs for patients with fibromyalgia and their spouses: a Danish cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the burden of illness of people with fibromyalgia (FM) and their spouses compared with selected match populations in Denmark. METHODS: Population-based, cohort case-control study using data from Danish registries from 1994 to 2021. Individuals with an FM diagnosis were identified from the National Patient Register (2008-2019) and randomly matched to a 1:4 general population comparator. Spouses or persons co-living with subjects with FM at the time of diagnosis were compared with matched comparator spouses. Healthcare and societal costs, socioeconomic status and occurrence of comorbidities were evaluated for subjects with FM, spouses and controls. RESULTS: 9712 subjects with FM (94.9% females, mean age 50 years) and 5946 spouses were included. At year of diagnosis, subjects with FM had significantly more comorbidities compared with controls, including significantly more comorbid rheumatic disorders. The highest risk at the time of FM diagnosis was a comorbid diagnosis of ankylosing spondylitis (OR 7.0, 95% CI 4.9 to 10.0). Significantly more comorbidities were also observed in spouses. Subjects with FM and spouses had higher healthcare and public transfer costs and lower income from employment at all timepoints. Loss of income from employment in subjects with FM occurred years before establishment of the FM diagnosis. The employment rate after diagnosis was 22%. 10 years after the FM diagnosis, 50% received disability pension as compared with 11% of matched controls. The observed net average increased societal cost for subjects with FM amounted to €27 193 per patient-year after diagnosis. CONCLUSION: FM has major health and socioeconomic consequences for patients, their partners and society and call for improved healthcare strategies matching patients' needs.

Economic analyses in cardiac electrophysiology: from clinical efficacy to cost utility.

Cardiac electrophysiology is an evolving field that relies heavily on costly device- and catheter-based technologies. An increasing number of patients with heart rhythm disorders are becoming eligible for cardiac interventions, not least due to the rising prevalence of atrial fibrillation and increased longevity in the population. Meanwhile, the expansive costs of healthcare face finite societal resources, and a cost-conscious approach to new technologies is critical. Cost-effectiveness analyses support rational decision-making in healthcare by evaluating the ratio of healthcare costs to health benefits for competing therapies. They may, however, be subject to significant uncertainty and bias. This paper aims to introduce the basic concepts, framework, and limitations of cost-effectiveness analyses to clinicians including recent examples from clinical electrophysiology and device therapy.

Health care and socioeconomic costs for long-term survivors after implementation of checkpoint-inhibitors and targeted agents for metastatic melanoma.

BACKGROUND: Real-life data on health care costs and loss of productivity after implementing new agents for metastatic melanoma are important to supplement model-based economic data. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All patients registered in the Danish Metastatic Melanoma Database (DAMMED) and the National Patient Registry in 2007-2011 were compared to 2012-2016 after the implementation of checkpoint inhibitors and targeted therapy. Health care costs, social transfer income (STI), and loss of productivity were calculated with a 2-step one model generalised linear regression (GLM) model. Medicine costs were calculated separately. RESULTS: In 2007-2011, 70 (15%) out of 464 patients were long-term survivors compared to 347 (32%) out of 1089 patients in 2012-2016. Total health care costs per patient year were significantly lower in the first treatment year (€41.457 versus €60.547, relative change (RC) 0.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.94, p = 0.015) and without significant difference the second year in 2012-2016 compared to 2007-2011. Medicine costs per patient year increased the first (€85.464 versus €26.339, RC 3.39, 95% CI 2.61-4.41, p < 0.001) and the second (€26.464 versus €11.150, RC 2.59, 95% CI 1.98-3.40, p < 0.001) year in 2012-2016 compared to 2007-2011. Productivity increased for long-term survivors in 2012-2016 in contrast to 2007-2011. CONCLUSION: Implementation of targeted therapy and checkpoint-inhibitors has increased medicine costs more than three-fold for long-term survivors. Total health care costs excluding medicine costs were significantly lower for long-term survivors the first and without change the second treatment year in 2012-2016 compared to 2007-2011. However, the number of treated patients increased which leads to an increase in overall total health care costs. Importantly, productivity increased for long-term survivors in 2012-2016.

How come Denmark is planning to increase the annual budget for psychiatry by almost 20 percent?

In Denmark, a 10-year plan for psychiatry has been agreed on. The content of the plan was developed in collaboration between the Danish Health Authority and the Danish Authority for Social Services and Housing, and it involved many stakeholders. Recently, the government presented a planned investment that would increase the overall budget in Danish regions and municipalities by almost 20 percent over a 10-year period. Epidemiological research demonstrating shortened life expectancy and high levels of burden of disease for people with mental disorders contributed to emphasizing the need for improvement of psychiatric services. User organizations, trade unions, and scientific societies in the field of mental health were unified in a common organization, called the Psychiatry Alliance, and this alliance agreed on common action points and acted together to influence politicians. An assertive approach toward politicians and media was pivotal, and being a first mover and presenting tentative budgets was very influential.

Effects of home-based specialized palliative care and dyadic psychological intervention on caregiver burden: results from a randomized controlled trial.

Background The Domus study, a randomized controlled trial (RCT), evaluated the effect of home-based specialized palliative care (SPC) reinforced with a psychological intervention for the patient-caregiver dyad on increasing advanced cancer patients' time spent at home, as opposed to hospitalized, and the number of home deaths. As palliative care extends to include support for patients' families and may thus assist caregivers and decrease demands on them, in this study we evaluated a secondary outcome, caregiver burden.Material and Methods Patients with incurable cancer and their caregivers were randomized (1:1) to care as usual or home-based SPC. Caregiver burden was assessed using the Zarit Burden Interview (ZBI) at baseline and 2, 4, 8 weeks and 6 months after randomization. Intervention effects were assessed in mixed effects models.Results A total of 258 caregivers were enrolled. Eleven per cent of informal caregivers experienced severe caregiver burden at baseline. Caregiver burden increased significantly over time in both groups (p = 0.0003), but no significant effect of the intervention was seen on overall caregiver burden (p = 0.5046) or burden subscales measuring role and personal strain.Conclusion In line with the majority of previous RCTs, the Domus intervention was not able to significantly reduce caregiver burden. Future interventions should consider targeting only caregivers reporting the greatest caregiver burden.

Burden of illness among intermittent catheter users with non-neurogenic urinary retention in Denmark.

BACKGROUND: Urinary retention (UR) caused by non-neurogenic conditions is a frequent disorder often requiring the use of intermittent catheterization (IC). This study examines the burden of illness among subjects with an IC indication due to non-neurogenic UR. METHODS: Health-care utilization and costs were extracted from Danish registers (2002-2016) related to the first year after IC training and compared to matched controls. RESULTS: A total of 4,758 subjects with UR due to benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) and 3,618 subjects with UR due to other non-neurological conditions were identified. Total health-care utilization and costs per patient-year were significantly higher compared to matched controls (BPH: 12,406 EUR vs 4,363, p < 0.000; other non-neurogenic causes: 12,497 EUR vs 3,920, p < 0.000) and driven mainly by hospitalizations. Urinary tract infections (UTIs) were the most frequent bladder complications often requiring hospitalization. The inpatient costs per patient-year for UTIs were significantly higher for cases than controls (BPH: 479 EUR vs 31, p < 0.000; other non-neurogenic causes: 434 EUR vs 25, p < 0.000). CONCLUSIONS: The burden of illness caused by non-neurogenic UR with need for IC was high and essentially driven by hospitalizations. Further research should clarify if additional treatment measures may reduce the burden of illness in subjects suffering from non-neurogenic UR using IC.

Survival and long-term socioeconomic consequences of childhood and adolescent onset of brain tumours.

AIM: To evaluate survival distributions, long-term socioeconomic consequences, and health care costs in patients with childhood and adolescent onset of brain tumours in a Danish nationwide prospective cohort study. METHOD: A search of national registries identified 2283 patients (1198 males, 1085 females; mean age 9 years 6 months [SD 5 years 7 months]) diagnosed with a brain tumour between 1980 and 2015 and aged no older than 18 years at diagnosis. These were compared with sex-, age-, and residency-matched comparison individuals. Patients with malignant tumours were compared with those with benign tumours. Survival distributions were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and hazard ratio by the Cox proportional hazard model. Socioeconomic data at age 20 and 30 years were assessed. RESULTS: The probability of mortality was highest during the first year after tumour diagnosis. In young adulthood, the patients were generally less likely to be married, had lower grade-point averages, educational levels, and income, were less likely to be in employment, and had higher health care costs than comparison individuals. Patients with malignant tumours had worse outcomes with respect to education, employment, and health care costs than those with benign tumours. INTERPRETATION: A diagnosis of brain tumour in childhood and adolescence adversely affects survival and has negative long-term socioeconomic consequences, especially in patients with malignant tumours. These patients require continuous social support.

Estimates of epilepsy prevalence, psychiatric co-morbidity and cost.

PURPOSE: This study estimated epilepsy prevalence, psychiatric co-morbidity and annual costs associated with epilepsy. METHODS: We used Danish national health registers to identify persons diagnosed with epilepsy and psychiatric disorders, and persons using antiseizure medication and persons using drugs for psychiatric disorders. We calculated the prevalence of epilepsy and co-morbid psychiatric disorders in Denmark on December 31, 2016, using information on epilepsy and psychiatric disorders based on combinations of hospital contacts and use of antiseizure and psychoactive medication. Further, direct and indirect annual costs associated with epilepsy were calculated using individual-level data from a range of socioeconomic registers. RESULTS: There were 5,044,367 persons alive and living in Denmark on December 31, 2016, including 33,628 persons with at least one hospital contact with epilepsy in the previous five years (epilepsy prevalence 0.67% (0.69% males; 0.65% females)). Among these persons with epilepsy, we identified 12,562 (37.4%) persons with a psychiatric disorder or use of drugs used for psychiatric disorders as compared with 801,052 (15.9%) persons in the general population. The estimated total annual individual net costs associated with epilepsy was €30,683. Compared with prevalence estimates on December 31, 2006, the prevalence of epilepsy on December 31, 2016, was slightly higher in the older population and slightly lower in children CONCLUSIONS: Population estimates from national registers provide epilepsy prevalence estimates of approximately 0.6-0.7% - similar to previous reviews of epilepsy prevalence. In addition, the national sample allowed idenitfication of high prevalence of psychiatric disorders and high societal costs associated with epielspy.

Longitudinal analysis of health care costs in patients with childhood onset inherited retinal dystrophies compared to healthy controls.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated health care costs in patients with childhood onset visual impairment caused by inherited retinal dystrophies (IRD). METHODS: The IRD cohort, identified from the Danish Registry of Blind and Partially Sighted Children, was compared to age- and sex-matched controls from the national, Danish population registry. Information on health care expenditures for somatic and psychiatric in- and outpatient services, purchase of prescription medications and paid assistance at home were obtained from national registries for the years 2002-2017. RESULTS: We included 412 in the IRD cohort (6,290 person years) and 1656 (25,088 person years) in the control cohort. Average, annual health care expenditures from age 0-48 years of age were €1,488 (SD 4,711) in the IRD cohort and €1,030 (4,639) in the control cohort. The largest difference was for out-patient eye care (13.26 times greater, 95% confidence interval 12.90-13.64). Psychiatric in-patient expenditures were 1.71 times greater (95% CI 1.66-1.76) in the IRD cohort but psychiatric out-patient health care costs were comparable between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Health care costs were approximately 40% greater in the IRD cohort compared to an age- and sex-matched sample from the general Danish population. This is relevant in the current situation with a number of trials aimed at treating IRDs using genetically based therapies. Although eye care expenditures were many times greater, they made up < 10% of the total health care expenditures even in the IRD cohort. The reduced costs related to injuries in the visually impaired cohort was a surprising finding but may reflect a reduced propensity to seek medical care rather than a reduced risk of injuries.

National clinical guidelines and treatment centralization do not guarantee consistency in healthcare delivery. A mixed-methods study of wet age-related macular degeneration treatment in Denmark.

As clinical practice variation has been problematized as a symptom of suboptimal care and inefficient resource spending, consistency in the delivery of healthcare is a recurring policy goal. We examine a case where the introduction of a new treatment is most likely to provide consistency in healthcare delivery because it was introduced with a national clinical practice guideline representing consensus about best clinical practice among leading clinicians, and because care delivery was highly centralized to few high-volume treatment units. Despite the consensus on best clinical practice and care centralization, this study shows pronounced regional variation in patient outcomes and treatment costs that increased over time. Using a mixed-methods design, we find that the lack of consistency in care was largely unrelated to patient-specific characteristics, but seemed to reflect structural differences in the regional organization and financing of healthcare delivery. We conclude that the value of clinical practice guidelines is undermined when structural barriers limit the ability of clinicians and clinical managers to scale up treatment, and that some degree of decentralization may be a tool to maintain treatment intensity when the treatment effect is dependent on a high treatment intensity.

Direct and indirect costs of heart failure in relation to diabetes status - A nationwide study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Heart failure (HF) and diabetes mellitus (DM) are burdensome chronic diseases with high lifetime risks and numerous studies indicate associations between HF and DM. The objective of this study was to investigate the direct and indirect costs of HF patients with and without DM. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients with a first-time diagnosis of HF from 1998 to 2016 were identified through nationwide Danish registries and stratified according to DM status into HF with or without DM. The economic healthcare cost analysis was based on both direct costs, including hospitalization, procedures, medication and indirect costs including social welfare and lost productivity. The economic burden was investigated prior to, at, and following diagnosis of HF. Patients with concomitant HF and DM were younger (median age 74 vs. 77), had more comorbidities and fewer were female as compared to patients with HF but without DM. The socioeconomic burden of concomitant HF and DM compared to HF alone was substantially higher; 45% in direct costs (€16,237 vs. €11,184), 35% in home care costs (€3123 vs. €2320), 8% in social transfer income (€17,257 vs. €15,994) and they had 27% lower income (€10,136 vs. €13,845). The economic burden peaked at year of diagnosis, but the difference became increasingly pronounced in the years following the HF diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Patients with concomitant HF and DM had a significantly higher economic burden compared to patients with HF but without DM.

Childhood-onset retinal dystrophies reduces life-time income by one third - an individual based socio-economic analysis.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate lifetime income, educational level and workforce participation in patients with childhood-onset inherited retinal dystrophies (IRD). MATERIAL AND METHODS: The registry-based study using national, Danish databases on education, income, employment and social benefits in a cohort of 515 patients with childhood-onset IRD and without severe systemic comorbidities matched 1:4 to an age- and sex to a control sample of the Danish background population. Socio-economic status was modelled with focus on grade mark points after primary education, highest attained education at 30 years or age, employment and unemployment rate, disability pension and lifetime income. RESULTS: At 30 years of age, the proportion of those who had primary education as the highest achieved level was higher in the IRD group (35.4% versus 18.7%) and they were more likely to be receiving a disability pension (OR 11.77) or be unemployed (OR 6.63). Those at work had the same number of work hours as the control group, and the same proportion had obtained a Master or PhD degree (14%). At 30 years of age, income earnings were lower in the IRD group and the lifetime income was reduced by 30%. CONCLUSION: A few among those with childhood-onset IRD were able to obtain high educational levels, and many were assigned a disability pension from early adulthood or were unemployed, resulting in a markedly reduced lifetime income although grade mark points from primary education were comparable, suggesting that the difference was not explained by intellectual differences between the groups.

Burden of illness the first year after diagnosed bladder dysfunction among people with spinal cord injury or multiple sclerosis - a Danish register study.

BACKGROUND: People with spinal cord injury (SCI) or multiple sclerosis (MS) are often living with some degree of bladder and/or bowel dysfunction due to acquired neurogenic damage. The objective was to estimate the burden of illness of SCI and MS the first year after diagnosed bladder dysfunction. METHODS: Data were extracted from registers covering all Danish citizens. People with SCI or MS were indexed at diagnosis of bladder dysfunction. Inclusion period was 2002-2015 and cases and matched controls were followed for one year. RESULTS: A total of 2,132 subjects with SCI and 1,887 subjects with MS were identified. Healthcare utilization and societal costs per patient-year were significantly higher for cases compared to controls driven primarily by inpatient care. Cases with urinary tract infection had significantly higher inpatient costs per patient-year compared to controls (SCI: 544 EUR vs 23, p < 0.05; MS: 497 EUR vs 6, p< 0.05) and medication for constipation was significantly more costly per patient-year (SCI: 178 EUR vs 3, p < 0.05; MS: 78 vs 1, p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrates heavy societal and personal costs in the first year after bladder dysfunction in people with SCI or MS. This emphasizes the need for medical and social interventions to reduce the burden of illness.

The effects of pantoprazole vs. placebo on 1-year outcomes, resource use and employment status in ICU patients at risk for gastrointestinal bleeding: a secondary analysis of the SUP-ICU trial.

PURPOSE: Patients in intensive care units (ICUs) are at risk of stress-related gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding and stress ulcer prophylaxis (SUP), including proton pump inhibitors, is widely used in the attempt to prevent this. In this secondary analysis of Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in Intensive Care Unit (SUP-ICU) trial, we assessed 1-year outcomes in the pantoprazole vs. placebo groups. METHODS: In the SUP-ICU trial, 3298 acutely admitted ICU patients at risk of GI bleeding were randomly allocated, stratified for site, to pantoprazole or placebo. In this secondary analysis, we assessed clinically important GI bleedings in ICU and 1-year mortality, health care resource use (e.g. readmission with GI bleeding, use of home care and general practitioner), health care costs, and employment status for the Danish participants using registry data. RESULTS: Among the 2099 Danish participants, 2092 had data in the registries; 1045 allocated to pantoprazole and 1047 to placebo. The number of clinically important GI bleedings in ICU was 1.9 percentage points [95% CI 0.3-3.5] lower in the pantoprazole group vs. the placebo group, but none of the 1-year outcomes differed statistically significantly between groups, including total health care costs (€1954 [- 2992 to 6899]), readmission with GI bleeding (- 0.005 admissions [- 0.016 to 0.005]), 1-year mortality (- 0.013 percentage points [- 0.051 to 0.026]), and employment (- 0.178 weeks [- 0.390 to 0.034]). CONCLUSION: Among ICU patients at risk of GI bleeding, pantoprazole reduced clinically important GI bleeding in ICU, but this did not translate into a reduction in 1-year mortality, health care resource use or improvements in employment status.

The impact of specialised treatment of low back pain on health care costs and productivity in a nationwide cohort.

BACKGROUND: Low back pain (LBP) is the most common diagnosis responsible for sick leave, long-term disability payments, and early retirements. Studies have suggested that the relatively small proportion of patients referred to a specialist for treatment, either conservative or surgical, accounts for most of the total costs of back pain. However, a complete and long-term picture of the socioeconomic burden associated with these two treatment regimens is lacking. METHODS: From a cohort encompassing the entire population in Denmark (5.8 million inhabitants), we identified patients with LBP referred to specialised treatment, either conservative or surgical, during 2007-2016. According to treatment modality, two different cohorts were constructed. Each patient was matched with ten background population controls based on age, sex, region of residency and time of treatment (month and year). Using extensive, nationwide register data, the healthcare costs and loss of productivity from two years before the first intervention until 2018 was investigated. FINDINGS: A total of 56,694 patients underwent surgical treatment, and 72,915 patients conservative treatment. Both cohorts had a significantly higher baseline cost two years before treatment compared with the background population controls. These measures increased sharply during the year after treatment. Five years after treatment, healthcare costs and loss of productivity remained proportionally similarly increased for the two treatment groups compared to the background population. Multiple surgeries had detrimental effects on long term productivity for the patients, and spouses to patients had marginally increased loss of productivity. INTERPRETATION: The results show that patients referred to specialised treatment of LBP display poor socioeconomic prognosis, regardless of conservative or surgical treatment modality. This development was reinforced in patients undergoing multiple surgeries and was also observed among spouses to the patients. Our findings of substantial loss of productivity across subgroups indicate that measures of successful treatment need to be more nuanced.

Ageing and health care expenditures: the importance of age per se, steepening of the individual-level expenditure curve, and the role of morbidity.

The demographic change towards a larger proportion of older individuals challenges universal health care systems in sustaining high-quality care and universal coverage without budget expansions. To build valuable predictions of the economic burden from population ageing, it is crucial to understand the determinants of individual-level health care expenditures. Often, the focus has been on the relative importance of an individual's age and time to death, while only a few newer studies highlight that individual-level health care expenditures are increasing faster for the elderly-i.e., creating a steepening of the individual-level health care expenditure curve over time. Applying individual-level administrative data for the entire Danish population, our study is the first to use a single data set to examine whether age, time to death, and a steepening of the individual-level health care expenditure curve all contributed to individual-level health care expenditures over a 12 year observation period (2006-2018). We find that individual-level expenditures are associated with an individual's age, an individual's time to death, and a steepening of the expenditure curve, with the steepening driven by individuals above age 75. We observe heterogeneity in the extent and age distribution of steepening across disease groups. The threefold combination of an ageing population, the correlation between expenditures and age per se, and a steepening of the expenditure curve make establishing financially sustainable universal health care systems increasingly difficult. To mitigate budgetary pressure, policy-makers should stimulate cost-effective medical advances and health care utilization in the treatment of elderly. Moreover, steepening scenarios should be added to future health care expenditure forecasts.