Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology.

Changes in climate shift the geographic locations that are suitable for malaria transmission because of the thermal constraints on vector Anopheles mosquitos and Plasmodium spp. malaria parasites and the lack of availability of surface water for vector breeding. Previous Africa-wide assessments have tended to solely represent surface water using precipitation, ignoring many important hydrological processes. Here, we applied a validated and weighted ensemble of global hydrological and climate models to estimate present and future areas of hydroclimatic suitability for malaria transmission. With explicit surface water representation, we predict a net decrease in areas suitable for malaria transmission from 2025 onward, greater sensitivity to future greenhouse gas emissions, and different, more complex, malaria transmission patterns. Areas of malaria transmission that are projected to change are smaller than those estimated by precipitation-based estimates but are associated with greater changes in transmission season lengths.

Extreme flood disturbance effects on multiple dimensions of river invertebrate community stability.

Multidimensional analysis of community stability has recently emerged as an overarching approach to evaluating ecosystem response to disturbance. However, the approach has previously been applied only in experimental and modelling studies. We applied this concept to an 18-year time series (2000-2017) of macroinvertebrate community dynamics from a southeast Alaskan river to further develop and test the approach in relation to the effects of two extreme flood events occurring in 2005 (event 1) and 2014 (event 2). Five components of stability were calculated for pairs of pre- or post-event years. Individual components were tested for differences between pre- and post-event time periods. Stability components' pairwise correlations were assessed and ellipsoids of stability were developed for each time period and compared to a null model derived from the permuted dataset. Only one stability component demonstrated a significant difference between time periods. In contrast, 80% of moderate and significant correlations between stability components were degraded post-disturbance and significant changes to the form of stability ellipsoids were observed. Ellipsoids of stability for all periods after the initial disturbance (2005) were not different to the null model. Our results illustrate that the dimensionality of stability approach can be applied to natural ecosystem time-series data. The major increase in dimensionality of stability observed following disturbance potentially indicates significant shifts in the processes which drive stability following disturbance. This evidence improves our understanding of community response beyond what is possible through analysis of individual stability components.

River ecosystem resilience to extreme flood events.

Floods have a major influence in structuring river ecosystems. Considering projected increases in high-magnitude rainfall events with climate change, major flooding events are expected to increase in many regions of the world. However, there is uncertainty about the effect of different flooding regimes and the importance of flood timing in structuring riverine habitats and their associated biotic communities. In addition, our understanding of community response is hindered by a lack of long-term datasets to evaluate river ecosystem resilience to flooding. Here we show that in a river ecosystem studied for 30 years, a major winter flood reset the invertebrate community to a community similar to one that existed 15 years earlier. The community had not recovered to the preflood state when recurrent summer flooding 9 years later reset the ecosystem back to an even earlier community. Total macroinvertebrate density was reduced in the winter flood by an order of magnitude more than the summer flood. Meiofaunal invertebrates were more resilient to the flooding than macroinvertebrates, possibly due to their smaller body size facilitating greater access to in-stream refugia. Pacific pink salmon escapement was markedly affected by the winter flood when eggs were developing in redds, compared to summer flooding, which occurred before the majority of eggs were laid. Our findings inform a proposed conceptual model of three possible responses to flooding by the invertebrate community in terms of switching to different states and effects on resilience to future flooding events. In a changing climate, understanding these responses is important for river managers to mitigate the biological impacts of extreme flooding effects.