A multi-center validation of the electronic health record admission source and discharge location fields against the clinical notes for identifying inpatients with long-term care facility exposure.

Identifying long-term care facility (LTCF)-exposed inpatients is important for infection control research and practice, but ascertaining LTCF exposure is challenging. Across a large validation study, electronic health record data fields identified 76% of LTCF-exposed patients compared to manual chart review. OBJECTIVE: Residence or recent stay in a long-term care facility (LTCF) is an important risk factor for antibiotic-resistant bacterial colonization. However, absent dedicated intake questionnaires or resource-intensive chart review, ascertaining LTCF exposure in inpatients is challenging. We aimed to validate the electronic health record (EHR) admission and discharge location fields against the clinical notes for identifying LTCF-exposed inpatients. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of 1020 randomly sampled adult admissions between 2016 and 2021 across 12 University of Maryland Medical System hospitals. Using study-developed guidelines, we categorized the following data for LTCF exposure: each admission's history & physical (H&P) note, each admission's EHR-extracted "Admission Source," and (3) the EHR-extracted admission and discharge locations for previous admissions (≤90 days). We estimated sensitivities, with 95% CIs, of H&P notes and of EHR admission/discharge location fields for detecting "current" and "any recent" (≤90 days, including current) LTCF exposure. RESULTS: For detecting current LTCF exposure, the sensitivity of the index admission's EHR-extracted "Admission Source" was 46% (95% CI: 35%­58%) and of the H&P note was 92% (83%­97%). For detecting any recent LTCF exposure, the sensitivity of "Admission Source" across the index and previous admissions was 32% (24%­41%), "Discharge Location" across previous admission(s) was 57% (47%­66%), and of the H&P note was 68% (59%­76%). The combined sensitivity of admission source and discharge location for detecting any recent LTCF exposure was 76% (67%­83%). CONCLUSIONS: The EHR-obtained admission source and discharge location fields identified 76% of LTCF-exposed patients compared to chart review but disproportionately missed currently exposed patients.

Reduced control of SARS-CoV-2 infection associates with lower mucosal antibody responses in pregnancy.

Pregnant patients are at greater risk of hospitalization with severe COVID-19 than non-pregnant people. This was a retrospective observational cohort study of remnant clinical specimens from patients who visited acute care hospitals within the Johns Hopkins Health System in the Baltimore, MD-Washington DC, area between October 2020 and May 2022. Participants included confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-infected pregnant people and matched non-pregnant people (the matching criteria included age, race/ethnicity, area deprivation index, insurance status, and vaccination status to ensure matched demographics). The primary dependent measures were clinical COVID-19 outcomes, infectious virus recovery, viral RNA levels, and mucosal anti-spike (S) IgG titers from upper respiratory tract samples. A total of 452 individuals (117 pregnant and 335 non-pregnant) were included in the study, with both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals represented. Pregnant patients were at increased risk of hospitalization (odds ratio [OR] = 4.2; confidence interval [CI] = 2.0-8.6), intensive care unit admittance (OR = 4.5; CI = 1.2-14.2), and being placed on supplemental oxygen therapy (OR = 3.1; CI = 1.3-6.9). Individuals infected during their third trimester had higher mucosal anti-S IgG titers and lower viral RNA levels (P < 0.05) than those infected during their first or second trimesters. Pregnant individuals experiencing breakthrough infections due to the Omicron variant had reduced anti-S IgG compared to non-pregnant patients (P < 0.05). The observed increased severity of COVID-19 and reduced mucosal antibody responses particularly among pregnant participants infected with the Omicron variant suggest that maintaining high levels of SARS-CoV-2 immunity through booster vaccines may be important for the protection of this at-risk population.IMPORTANCEIn this retrospective observational cohort study, we analyzed remnant clinical samples from non-pregnant and pregnant individuals with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections who visited the Johns Hopkins Hospital System between October 2020 and May 2022. Disease severity, including intensive care unit admission, was greater among pregnant than non-pregnant patients. Vaccination reduced recovery of infectious virus and viral RNA levels in non-pregnant patients, but not in pregnant patients. In pregnant patients, increased nasopharyngeal viral RNA levels and recovery of infectious virus were associated with reduced mucosal IgG antibody responses, especially among women in their first trimester of pregnancy or experiencing breakthrough infections from Omicron variants. Taken together, this study provides insights into how pregnant patients are at greater risk of severe COVID-19. The novelty of this study is that it focuses on the relationship between the mucosal antibody response and its association with virus load and disease outcomes in pregnant people, whereas previous studies have focused on serological immunity. Vaccination status, gestational age, and SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant impact mucosal antibody responses and recovery of infectious virus from pregnant patients.

Characterizing Patients Presenting on Hospital Admission with Central Line-Associated Bloodstream Infections: A Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: There are no systematic measures of central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs) in patients maintaining central venous catheters (CVCs) outside acute care hospitals. To improve understanding of the burden of CLABSIs outside acute care hospitals, we characterized patients with CLABSI present on hospital admission (POA). METHODS: Retrospective cross-sectional analysis of patients with CLABSI-POA in three health systems covering eleven hospitals across Maryland, Washington DC, and Missouri from November 2020 to October 2021. CLABSI-POA was defined using an adaptation of the acute care CLABSI definition. Patient demographics, clinical characteristics, and outcomes were collected via chart review. Cox proportional hazard analysis was used to assess factors associated with all-cause mortality within 30 days. RESULTS: 461 patients were identified as having CLABSI-POA. CVCs were most commonly maintained in home infusion therapy (32.8%) or oncology clinics (31.2%). Enterobacterales were the most common etiologic agent (29.2%). Recurrent CLABSIs occurred in a quarter of patients (25%). Eleven percent of patients died during the hospital admission. Among CLABSI-POA patients, mortality risk increased with age (versus ages <20: ages 20-44 years: HR: 11.21, 95% CI: 1.46-86.22; ages 45-64: HR: 20.88, 95% CI: 2.84-153.58; at least 65 years of age: HR: 22.50, 95% CI: 2.98-169.93), and lack of insurance (HR: 2.46; 95% CI: 1.08-5.59), and decreased with CVC removal (HR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.39-0.84). CONCLUSION: CLABSI-POA is associated with significant in-hospital mortality. Surveillance is required to understand the burden of CLABSI in the community to identify targets for CLABSI prevention initiatives outside acute care settings.

Multisite development and validation of machine learning models to predict severe outcomes and guide decision-making for emergency department patients with influenza.

Objective: Millions of Americans are infected by influenza annually. A minority seek care in the emergency department (ED) and, of those, only a limited number experience severe disease or death. ED clinicians must distinguish those at risk for deterioration from those who can be safely discharged. Methods: We developed random forest machine learning (ML) models to estimate needs for critical care within 24 h and inpatient care within 72 h in ED patients with influenza. Predictor data were limited to those recorded prior to ED disposition decision: demographics, ED complaint, medical problems, vital signs, supplemental oxygen use, and laboratory results. Our study population was comprised of adults diagnosed with influenza at one of five EDs in our university health system between January 1, 2017 and May 18, 2022; visits were divided into two cohorts to facilitate model development and validation. Prediction performance was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Brier score. Results: Among 8032 patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza, incidence of critical care needs was 6.3% and incidence of inpatient care needs was 19.6%. The most common reasons for ED visit were symptoms of respiratory tract infection, fever, and shortness of breath. Model AUCs were 0.89 (95% CI 0.86-0.93) for prediction of critical care and 0.90 (95% CI 0.88-0.93) for inpatient care needs; Brier scores were 0.026 and 0.042, respectively. Importantpredictors included shortness of breath, increasing respiratory rate, and a high number of comorbid diseases. Conclusions: ML methods can be used to accurately predict clinical deterioration in ED patients with influenza and have potential to support ED disposition decision-making.

Impact of Blood Culture Contamination on Antibiotic Use, Resource Utilization, and Clinical Outcomes: A Retrospective Cohort Study in Dutch and US Hospitals.

Background: Blood culture contamination (BCC) has been associated with prolonged antibiotic use (AU) and increased health care utilization; however, this has not been widely reevaluated in the era of increased attention to antibiotic stewardship. We evaluated the impact of BCC on AU, resource utilization, and length of stay in Dutch and US patients. Methods: This retrospective observational study examined adults admitted to 2 hospitals in the Netherlands and 5 hospitals in the United States undergoing ≥2 blood culture (BC) sets. Exclusion criteria included neutropenia, no hospital admission, or death within 48 hours of hospitalization. The impact of BCC on clinical outcomes-overall inpatient days of antibiotic therapy, test utilization, length of stay, and mortality-was determined via a multivariable regression model. Results: An overall 22 927 patient admissions were evaluated: 650 (4.1%) and 339 (4.8%) with BCC and 11 437 (71.8%) and 4648 (66.3%) with negative BC results from the Netherlands and the United States, respectively. Dutch and US patients with BCC had a mean ± SE 1.74 ± 0.27 (P < .001) and 1.58 ± 0.45 (P < .001) more days of antibiotic therapy than patients with negative BC results. They also had 0.6 ± 0.1 (P < .001) more BCs drawn. Dutch but not US patients with BCC had longer hospital stays (3.36 days; P < .001). There was no difference in mortality between groups in either cohort. AU remained higher in US but not Dutch patients with BCC in a subanalysis limited to BC obtained within the first 24 hours of admission. Conclusions: BCC remains associated with higher inpatient AU and health care utilization as compared with patients with negative BC results, although the impact on these outcomes differs by country.

Modeling relaxed policies for discontinuation of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus contact precautions.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the economic costs of reducing the University of Virginia Hospital's present "3-negative" policy, which continues methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) contact precautions until patients receive 3 consecutive negative test results, to either 2 or 1 negative. DESIGN: Cost-effective analysis. SETTINGS: The University of Virginia Hospital. PATIENTS: The study included data from 41,216 patients from 2015 to 2019. METHODS: We developed a model for MRSA transmission in the University of Virginia Hospital, accounting for both environmental contamination and interactions between patients and providers, which were derived from electronic health record (EHR) data. The model was fit to MRSA incidence over the study period under the current 3-negative clearance policy. A counterfactual simulation was used to estimate outcomes and costs for 2- and 1-negative policies compared with the current 3-negative policy. RESULTS: Our findings suggest that 2-negative and 1-negative policies would have led to 6 (95% CI, -30 to 44; P < .001) and 17 (95% CI, -23 to 59; -10.1% to 25.8%; P < .001) more MRSA cases, respectively, at the hospital over the study period. Overall, the 1-negative policy has statistically significantly lower costs ($628,452; 95% CI, $513,592-$752,148) annually (P < .001) in US dollars, inflation-adjusted for 2023) than the 2-negative policy ($687,946; 95% CI, $562,522-$812,662) and 3-negative ($702,823; 95% CI, $577,277-$846,605). CONCLUSIONS: A single negative MRSA nares PCR test may provide sufficient evidence to discontinue MRSA contact precautions, and it may be the most cost-effective option.

Understanding the role of antibiotic-associated adverse events in influencing antibiotic decision-making.

Objective: To (1) understand the role of antibiotic-associated adverse events (ABX-AEs) on antibiotic decision-making, (2) understand clinician preferences for ABX-AE feedback, and (3) identify ABX-AEs of greatest clinical concern. Design: Focus groups. Setting: Academic medical center. Participants: Medical and surgical house staff, attending physicians, and advanced practice practitioners. Methods: Focus groups were conducted from May 2022 to December 2022. Participants discussed the role of ABX-AEs in antibiotic decision-making and feedback preferences and evaluated the prespecified categorization of ABX-AEs based on degree of clinical concern. Thematic analysis was conducted using inductive coding. Results: Four focus groups were conducted (n = 15). Six themes were identified. (1) ABX-AE risks during initial prescribing influence the antibiotic prescribed rather than the decision of whether to prescribe. (2) The occurrence of an ABX-AE leads to reassessment of the clinical indication for antibiotic therapy. (3) The impact of an ABX-AE on other management decisions is as important as the direct harm of the ABX-AE. (4) ABX-AEs may be overlooked because of limited feedback regarding the occurrence of ABX-AEs. (5) Clinicians are receptive to feedback regarding ABX-AEs but are concerned about it being punitive. (6) Feedback must be curated to prevent clinicians from being overwhelmed with data. Clinicians generally agreed with the prespecified categorizations of ABX-AEs by degree of clinical concern. Conclusions: The themes identified and assessment of ABX-AEs of greatest clinical concern may inform antibiotic stewardship initiatives that incorporate reporting of ABX-AEs as a strategy to reduce unnecessary antibiotic use.

Examining cefazolin utilization and perioperative anaphylaxis in patients with and without a penicillin allergy label: A cross-sectional study.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To compare the occurrence of cefazolin perioperative anaphylaxis (POA) in patients with and without a penicillin allergy label (PAL) to determine whether the prevalence of cefazolin POA differs based on the presence of a PAL. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: A large U.S. healthcare system in the Baltimore-D.C. region, July 2017 to July 2020. PATIENTS: 112,817 surgical encounters across inpatient and outpatient settings in various specialties, involving 90,089 patients. Of these, 4876 (4.3%) encounters had a PAL. INTERVENTIONS: Perioperative cefazolin administration within 4 h before surgery to 4 h after the procedure began. MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was cefazolin POA in patients with and without PALs. Potential POA cases were identified based on tryptase orders or diphenhydramine administrations within the initial cefazolin administration to 6 h postoperatively. Verification included two validation steps. The first checked for hypersensitivity reaction (HSR) documentation, and the second, led by Allergy specialists, identified POA and the probable culprit. The secondary outcome looked at cefazolin use trends in patients with a PAL, stratified by setting and specialty. MAIN RESULTS: Of 112,817 encounters, 1421 (1.3%) had possible cefazolin HSRs. Of these, 22 (1.5%) had POA, resulting in a 0.02% prevalence. Of these, 13 (59.1%) were linked to cefazolin and 9 (40.9%) attributed to other drugs. Only one cefazolin POA case had a PAL, indicating no significant difference in cefazolin POA prevalence between patients with and without PALs (p = 0.437). Perioperative cefazolin use in patients with PALs steadily increased from 2.6% to 6.0% between 2017 and 2020, specifically in academic settings. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of cefazolin POA does not exhibit significant differences between patients with and without PALs, and notably, the incidence remains remarkably low. Based on these findings, it is advisable to view cefazolin as an acceptable choice for prophylaxis in patients carrying a PAL.

Racial and Socioeconomic Disparities Evident in Inappropriate Antibiotic Prescribing in the Emergency Department.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Inappropriate antibiotic prescribing for acute respiratory tract infections is a common source of low-value care in the emergency department (ED). Racial and socioeconomic disparities have been noted in episodes of low-value care, particularly in children. We evaluated whether prescribing rates for acute respiratory tract infections when antibiotics would be inappropriate by guidelines differed by race and socioeconomics. METHODS: A retrospective cross-sectional analysis of adult and pediatric patient encounters in the emergency department (ED) between 2015 and 2023 at 5 hospitals for acute respiratory tract infections that did not require antibiotics by guidelines. Multivariable regression was used to calculate the risk ratio between race, ethnicity, and area deprivation index and inappropriate antibiotic prescribing, controlling for patient age, sex, and relevant comorbidities. RESULTS: A total of 147,401 ED encounters (55% pediatric, 45% adult) were included. At arrival, 4% patients identified as Asian, 50% as Black, 5% as Hispanic, and 23% as White. Inappropriate prescribing was noted in 7.6% of overall encounters, 8% for Asian patients, 6% for Black patients, 5% for Hispanic patients, and 12% for White patients. After adjusting for age, sex, comorbidities, and area deprivation index, White patients had a 1.32 (95% confidence interval, 1.26 to 1.38) higher likelihood of receiving a prescription compared with Black patients. Patients residing in areas of greater socioeconomic deprivation, regardless of race and ethnicity, had a 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.70 to 0.78) lower likelihood of receiving a prescription. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that although overall inappropriate prescribing was relatively low, White patients and patients from wealthier areas were more likely to receive an inappropriate antibiotic prescription.

Increased circulation of human adenovirus in 2023: an investigation of the circulating genotypes, upper respiratory viral loads, and hospital admissions in a large academic medical center.

IMPORTANCE: The circulation of human adenoviruses (HAdV) increased in 2023. In this manuscript, we show that HAdV-B3 was predominant in 2023 in a cohort characterized by the Johns Hopkins Hospital System. We also show that HAdV-B3 was associated with an increase in viral loads in respiratory samples and provide a correlation with the clinical presentations and outcomes.

Evolution of Influenza A(H3N2) Viruses in 2 Consecutive Seasons of Genomic Surveillance, 2021-2023.

Background: The circulation and the genomic evolution of influenza A(H3N2) viruses during the 2021/2022 and 2022/2023 seasons were studied and associated with infection outcomes. Methods: Remnant influenza A-positive samples following standard-of-care testing from patients across the Johns Hopkins Health System (JHHS) were used for the study. Samples were randomly selected for whole viral genome sequencing. The sequence-based pEpitope model was used to estimate the predicted vaccine efficacy (pVE) for circulating H3N2 viruses. Clinical data were collected and associated with viral genomic data. Results: A total of 121 683 respiratory specimens were tested for influenza at JHHS between 1 September 2021 and 31 December 2022. Among them, 6071 (4.99%) tested positive for influenza A. Of these, 805 samples were randomly selected for sequencing, with hemagglutinin (HA) segments characterized for 610 samples. Among the characterized samples, 581 were H3N2 (95.2%). Phylogenetic analysis of HA segments revealed the exclusive circulation of H3N2 viruses with HA segments of the 3C.2a1b.2a.2 clade. Analysis of a total of 445 complete H3N2 genomes revealed reassortments; 200 of 227 of the 2022/2023 season genomes (88.1%) were found to have reassorted with clade 3C.2a1b.1a. The pVE was estimated to be -42.53% for the 2021/2022 season and 30.27% for the 2022/2023 season. No differences in clinical presentations or admissions were observed between the 2 seasons. Conclusions: The increased numbers of cases and genomic diversity of influenza A(H3N2) during the 2022/2023 season were not associated with a change in disease severity compared to the previous influenza season.

Epidemiology and Clinical Outcomes of Community-Acquired Acute Kidney Injury in the Emergency Department: A Multisite Retrospective Cohort Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The prevalence of community-acquired acute kidney injury (CA-AKI) in the United States and its clinical consequences are not well described. Our objective was to describe the epidemiology of CA-AKI and the associated clinical outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 178,927 encounters by 139,632 adults at 5 US emergency departments (EDs) between July 1, 2017, and December 31, 2022. PREDICTORS: CA-AKI identified using KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) serum creatinine (Scr)-based criteria. OUTCOMES: For encounters resulting in hospitalization, the in-hospital trajectory of AKI severity, dialysis initiation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and death. For all encounters, occurrence over 180 days of hospitalization, ICU admission, new or progressive chronic kidney disease, dialysis initiation, and death. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Multivariable logistic regression analysis to test the association between CA-AKI and measured outcomes. RESULTS: For all encounters, 10.4% of patients met the criteria for any stage of AKI on arrival to the ED. 16.6% of patients admitted to the hospital from the ED had CA-AKI on arrival to the ED. The likelihood of AKI recovery was inversely related to CA-AKI stage on arrival to the ED. Among encounters for hospitalized patients, CA-AKI was associated with in-hospital dialysis initiation (OR, 6.2; 95% CI, 5.1-7.5), ICU admission (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.7-2.0), and death (OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 2.0-2.5) compared with patients without CA-AKI. Among all encounters, CA-AKI was associated with new or progressive chronic kidney disease (OR, 6.0; 95% CI, 5.6-6.4), dialysis initiation (OR, 5.1; 95% CI, 4.5-5.7), subsequent hospitalization (OR, 1.1; 95% CI, 1.1-1.2) including ICU admission (OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.4), and death (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.5-1.7) during the subsequent 180 days. LIMITATIONS: Residual confounding. Study implemented at a single university-based health system. Potential selection bias related to exclusion of patients without an available baseline Scr measurement. Potential ascertainment bias related to limited repeat Scr data during follow-up after an ED visit. CONCLUSIONS: CA-AKI is a common and important entity that is associated with serious adverse clinical consequences during the 6-month period after diagnosis. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a condition characterized by a rapid decline in kidney function. There are many causes of AKI, but few studies have examined how often AKI is already present when patients first arrive to an emergency department seeking medical attention for any reason. We analyzed approximately 175,000 visits to Johns Hopkins emergency departments and found that AKI is common on presentation to the emergency department and that patients with AKI have increased risks of hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, development of chronic kidney disease, requirement of dialysis, and death in the first 6 months after diagnosis. AKI is an important condition for health care professionals to recognize and is associated with serious adverse outcomes.

Risk Factors for Hospitalization and Effect of Immunosuppression on Clinical Outcomes Among an Urban Cohort of Patients With Mpox.

Background: During the 2022 mpox outbreak most patients were managed as outpatients, but some required hospitalization. Uncontrolled human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has been identified as a risk factor for severe mpox. Methods: Patients with mpox diagnosed or treated within the Johns Hopkins Health System between 1 June and 15 December 2022 were included. The primary outcome of interest was risk of hospitalization. Demographic features, comorbid conditions, treatment, and clinical outcomes were determined. Results: A total of 353 patients were tested or treated for mpox; 100 had mpox diagnosed or treated (median age, 35.3 years; 97.0% male; 57.0% black and 10.0% Hispanic; 46.0% people with HIV [PWH]). Seventeen patients (17.0%) required hospitalization, 10 of whom were PWH. Age >40 years, race, ethnicity, HIV status, insurance status, and body mass index >30 (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) were not associated with hospitalization. Eight of 9 patients (88.9%) with immunosuppression were hospitalized. Immunosuppression was associated with hospitalization in univariate (odds ratio, 69.3 [95% confidence interval, 7.8-619.7]) and adjusted analysis (adjusted odds ratio, 94.8 [8.5-1060.1]). Two patients (11.8%) who were hospitalized required intensive care unit admission and died; both had uncontrolled HIV infection and CD4 T-cell counts <50/µL. Median cycle threshold values for the first positive mpox virus sample did not differ between those who were hospitalized and those who were not. Conclusions: Immunosuppression was a significant risk factor for hospitalization with mpox. PWH with CD4 T-cell counts <50/µL are at high risk of death due to mpox infection. Patients who are immunosuppressed should be considered for early and aggressive treatment of mpox, given the increased risk of hospitalization.

Modeling of malaria vaccine effectiveness on disease burden and drug resistance in 42 African countries.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of antimalarial drug resistance poses a major threat to effective malaria treatment and control. This study aims to inform policymakers and vaccine developers on the potential of an effective malaria vaccine in reducing drug-resistant infections. METHODS: A compartmental model estimating cases, drug-resistant cases, and deaths averted from 2021 to 2030 with a vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum infection administered yearly to 1-year-olds in 42 African countries. Three vaccine efficacy (VE) scenarios and one scenario of rapidly increasing drug resistance are modeled. RESULTS: When VE is constant at 40% for 4 years and then drops to 0%, 235.7 (Uncertainty Interval [UI] 187.8-305.9) cases per 1000 children, 0.6 (UI 0.4-1.0) resistant cases per 1000, and 0.6 (UI 0.5-0.9) deaths per 1000 are averted. When VE begins at 80% and drops 20 percentage points each year, 313.9 (UI 249.8-406.6) cases per 1000, 0.9 (UI 0.6-1.3) resistant cases per 1000, and 0.9 (UI 0.6-1.2) deaths per 1000 are averted. When VE remains 40% for 10 years, 384.7 (UI 311.7-496.5) cases per 1000, 1.0 (0.7-1.6) resistant cases per 1000, and 1.1 (UI 0.8-1.5) deaths per 1000 are averted. Assuming an effective vaccine and an increase in current levels of drug resistance to 80% by 2030, 10.4 (UI 7.3-15.8) resistant cases per 1000 children are averted. CONCLUSIONS: Widespread deployment of a malaria vaccine could substantially reduce health burden in Africa. Maintaining VE longer may be more impactful than a higher initial VE that falls rapidly.

Malaria can become resistant to the drugs used to treat it, posing a major threat to malaria treatment and control. An effective vaccine has the potential to reduce both resistant infections and antimalarial drug use. However, how successfully a vaccine can protect against infection (vaccine efficacy) and the impact of increasing drug resistance remain unclear. Using a mathematical model, we estimate the impact of malaria vaccination in 42 African countries over a 10-year period in multiple scenarios with differing vaccine efficacy and drug resistance. Our model suggests that a moderately effective vaccine with sustained protection over a long period could avert more resistant infections and deaths than a vaccine that is highly protective initially but lowers in efficacy over time. Nevertheless, implementation of an effective malaria vaccine should be accelerated to mitigate the health and economic burden of drug resistance.

Deconstructing the effects of stochasticity on transmission of hospital-acquired infections in ICUs.

The inherent stochasticity in transmission of hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) has complicated our understanding of transmission pathways. It is particularly difficult to detect the impact of changes in the environment on acquisition rate due to stochasticity. In this study, we investigated the impact of uncertainty (epistemic and aleatory) on nosocomial transmission of HAIs by evaluating the effects of stochasticity on the detectability of seasonality of admission prevalence. For doing so, we developed an agent-based model of an ICU and simulated the acquisition of HAIs considering the uncertainties in the behaviour of the healthcare workers (HCWs) and transmission of pathogens between patients, HCWs, and the environment. Our results show that stochasticity in HAI transmission weakens our ability to detect the effects of a change, such as seasonality patterns, on acquisition rate, particularly when transmission is a low-probability event. In addition, our findings demonstrate that data compilation can address this issue, while the amount of required data depends on the size of the said change and the degree of uncertainty. Our methodology can be used as a framework to assess the impact of interventions and provide decision-makers with insight about the minimum required size and target of interventions in a healthcare facility.

Early Discontinuation of Antibiotics in Patients Admitted With Clinically Suspected Serious Infection but Negative Cultures: Retrospective Cohort Study of Practice Patterns and Outcomes at 111†US Hospitals.

Background: The optimal duration for antibiotics in patients hospitalized with culture-negative serious infection (CNSI) is unknown. We compared outcomes in patients with CNSI treated with 3 or 4 vs ≥5 days of antibiotics. Methods: CNSI was identified among adults admitted to 111 US hospitals between 2009 and 2014 via electronic health record data, defined as suspected serious infection (blood cultures drawn and ≥3 days of antibiotics) and negative culture- and nonculture-based tests for infection. Patients treated with antibiotics on their last hospital day and patients with diagnosis codes for sepsis-mimicking conditions were excluded. Among patients without fevers/hypothermia or vasopressors by day 3, we calculated odds ratios for in-hospital mortality or discharge to hospice associated with 3 or 4 vs ≥5 days of antibiotics, adjusting for confounders. Results: Antibiotics were discontinued in 3 or 4 days in 1862 (9%) of 20 714 patients with CNSI. Early discontinuation was not associated with higher mortality odds overall (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.27; 95% CI, .98-1.65), in patients presenting with (1.39; .88-2.22) and without sepsis (1.17; .81-1.69), and in those with pulmonary (1.23; .65-2.34) and nonpulmonary CNSI (1.30; .99-1.72). Early discontinuation appeared detrimental with propensity score weighting (aOR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.03-1.80) and when retaining patients with sepsis mimics (1.38; 1.16-1.65), but it was protective (0.48; .37-.64]) when retaining patients who received antibiotics on their last hospital day. Conclusions: Early discontinuation of antibiotics in CNSI was not associated with significant harm in our primary analysis, but different conclusions based on alternative analytic decisions, as well as risk of residual confounding, indicate that randomized controlled trials are needed.

Severity outcomes associated with SARS-CoV-2 XBB variants, an observational analysis.

The rapidity with which SARS-CoV-2 XBB variants rose to predominance has been alarming. We used a large cohort of patients diagnosed with Omicron infections between September 2022 and mid-February 2023 to evaluate the likelihood of admission or need for supplemental oxygen in patients infected with XBB variants. Our data showed no significant association between XBB or XBB.1.5 infections and admissions. Older age groups, lack of vaccination, immunosuppression and underlying heart, kidney, and lung disease showed significant associations with hospitalization.

An Electronic Algorithm to Identify Vancomycin-Associated Acute Kidney Injury.

Background: The burden of vancomycin-associated acute kidney injury (V-AKI) is unclear because it is not systematically monitored. The objective of this study was to develop and validate an electronic algorithm to identify cases of V-AKI and to determine its incidence. Methods: Adults and children admitted to 1 of 5 health system hospitals from January 2018 to December 2019 who received at least 1 dose of intravenous (IV) vancomycin were included. A subset of charts was reviewed using a V-AKI assessment framework to classify cases as unlikely, possible, or probable events. Based on review, an electronic algorithm was developed and then validated using another subset of charts. Percentage agreement and kappa coefficients were calculated. Sensitivity and specificity were determined at various cutoffs, using chart review as the reference standard. For courses ≥48 hours, the incidence of possible or probable V-AKI events was assessed. Results: The algorithm was developed using 494 cases and validated using 200 cases. The percentage agreement between the electronic algorithm and chart review was 92.5% and the weighted kappa was 0.95. The electronic algorithm was 89.7% sensitive and 98.2% specific in detecting possible or probable V-AKI events. For the 11 073 courses of ≥48 hours of vancomycin among 8963 patients, the incidence of possible or probable V-AKI events was 14.0%; the V-AKI incidence rate was 22.8 per 1000 days of IV vancomycin therapy. Conclusions: An electronic algorithm demonstrated substantial agreement with chart review and had excellent sensitivity and specificity in detecting possible or probable V-AKI events. The electronic algorithm may be useful for informing future interventions to reduce V-AKI.

Spatial-Temporal Networks for Antibiogram Pattern Prediction.

An antibiogram is a periodic summary of antibiotic resistance results of organisms from infected patients to selected antimicrobial drugs. Antibiograms help clinicians to understand regional resistance rates and select appropriate antibiotics in prescriptions. In practice, significant combinations of antibiotic resistance may appear in different antibiograms, forming antibiogram patterns. Such patterns may imply the prevalence of some infectious diseases in certain regions. Thus it is of crucial importance to monitor antibiotic resistance trends and track the spread of multi-drug resistant organisms. In this paper, we propose a novel problem of antibiogram pattern prediction that aims to predict which patterns will appear in the future. Despite its importance, tackling this problem encounters a series of challenges and has not yet been explored in the literature. First of all, antibiogram patterns are not i.i.d as they may have strong relations with each other due to genomic similarities of the underlying organisms. Second, antibiogram patterns are often temporally dependent on the ones that are previously detected. Furthermore, the spread of antibiotic resistance can be significantly influenced by nearby or similar regions. To address the above challenges, we propose a novel Spatial-Temporal Antibiogram Pattern Prediction framework, STAPP, that can effectively leverage the pattern correlations and exploit the temporal and spatial information. We conduct extensive experiments on a real-world dataset with antibiogram reports of patients from 1999 to 2012 for 203 cities in the United States. The experimental results show the superiority of STAPP against several competitive baselines.

Modeling the potential health impacts of delayed strain selection on influenza hospitalization and mortality with mRNA vaccines.

Background: Influenza viruses are constantly evolving through antigenic drift, which makes vaccines potentially ill-matched to circulating strains due to the time between strain selection and distribution. mRNA technology could improve vaccine effectiveness (VE) by reducing this time. Significant private and public investments would be required to accommodate accelerated vaccine development and approval. Hence, it is important to understand the potential impact of mRNA technology on influenza hospitalizations and mortality. Methods: We developed an age-stratified dynamic model of influenza transmission to evaluate the potential impact of increased VE (increased protection against either infection or only hospitalization) on hospitalizations and mortality in the United States. We assume that mRNA technology allows for delaying the time to strain choice, which might increase efficacy, but it does not reduce the time needed for distribution and administration, which might reduce availability. To assess this tradeoff, we evaluated two scenarios where strain choice was delayed until late summer resulting in a more effective vaccine available to (1) all age groups by October, or (2) adults 65 years and older starting in August. Results: If not available until October, the vaccine would need a minimum of 95% effectiveness against infection to see a decrease in hospitalizations and deaths in all age groups. When delayed until November, even a 100% effective vaccine had no significant impact. For the elderly, the minimum required VE (against infection) was 50% to reduce hospitalizations and deaths. Moreover, a vaccine with 80% VE against infection available in August for the 65 + age group was better than a 95% effective vaccine available in October for all ages. Conclusions: As the majority of influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths are in adults 65 years and older, a combination policy targeting higher VE and coverage for this age group in the short term would be the most efficacious.