A deep learning model for pediatric patient risk stratification.

OBJECTIVES: Current models for patient risk prediction rely on practitioner expertise and domain knowledge. This study presents a deep learning model-a type of machine learning that does not require human inputs-to analyze complex clinical and financial data for population risk stratification. STUDY DESIGN: A comparative predictive analysis of deep learning versus other popular risk prediction modeling strategies using medical claims data from a cohort of 112,641 pediatric accountable care organization members. METHODS: "Skip-Gram," an unsupervised deep learning approach that uses neural networks for prediction modeling, used data from 2014 and 2015 to predict the risk of hospitalization in 2016. The area under the curve (AUC) of the deep learning model was compared with that of both the Clinical Classifications Software and the commercial DxCG Intelligence predictive risk models, each with and without demographic and utilization features. We then calculated costs for patients in the top 1% and 5% of hospitalization risk identified by each model. RESULTS: The deep learning model performed the best across 6 predictive models, with an AUC of 75.1%. The top 1% of members selected by the deep learning model had a combined healthcare cost $5 million higher than that of the group identified by the DxCG Intelligence model. CONCLUSIONS: The deep learning model outperforms the traditional risk models in prospective hospitalization prediction. Thus, deep learning may improve the ability of managed care organizations to perform predictive modeling of financial risk, in addition to improving the accuracy of risk stratification for population health management activities.

Healthcare Claims Data: An Underutilized Tool for Pediatric Outpatient Antimicrobial Stewardship.

BACKGROUND.: Healthcare claims are underutilized to identify factors associated with high outpatient antibiotic use. METHODS.: We evaluated ambulatory encounter claims of Medicaid-insured children in 34 Ohio counties in 2014. Rates of total antibiotic and azithromycin prescriptions dispensed were determined by county of patient residence. Standardized treatment rates by county were estimated for uncomplicated upper respiratory tract encounters (acute otitis media, pharyngitis, sinusitis, presumed viral infection) after adjusting for patient age and encounter provider type. Uncomplicated encounters included healthy children at initial presentation of illness. Adjusted odds of treatment were calculated for patient age, provider type, and county characteristics (rural vs metropolitan; poverty rate). RESULTS.: Retail pharmacies dispensed 255291 antibiotics to this cohort in 2014. More than 25% were to children <3 years. County rates of total antibiotic and azithromycin prescriptions dispensed were 530.4-1548.3 and 57.3-378.7 per 1000 person-years, respectively. Of 246866 uncomplicated upper respiratory tract encounters, antibiotics were dispensed (within 3 days) in 46.1%. Presumed viral infection accounted for 18.5% of antibiotics. Standardized treatment rates by county ranged widely from 35.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 33.3%-38.5%) to 63.2% (95% CI, 61.5%-64.9%). Compared to encounters with pediatricians, adjusted odds ratio of treatment was 2.02 (95% CI, 1.96-2.07) for family physicians and 1.74 (95% CI, 1.68-1.79) for nurse practitioners. Residence in rural or high-poverty counties increased odds of treatment. CONCLUSIONS.: Healthcare claims were useful to identify populations and providers with high antibiotic use. Claims data could be considered to track and report antibiotic prescribing frequency, especially where electronic medical records are not available.

Population screening for von Willebrand disease in adolescents with heavy menstrual bleeding.

We used Ohio Medicaid data to determine frequency and predictors of laboratory screening for von Willebrand disease and other bleeding disorders in adolescents with heavy menses. Despite expert guidelines, screening was performed in only a minority of subjects (<15% of those with heavy menses and <25% of those with menstrual bleeding defined as severe), with younger adolescents and those from more urban counties more likely to undergo screening.

Genetic knowledge and attitudes of parents of children with congenital heart defects.

Clinical genetic testing for specific isolated congenital heart defects (CHD) is becoming standard of care in pediatric cardiology practice. Both genetic knowledge and attitudes toward genetic testing are associated with an increased utilization of genetic testing, but these factors have not been evaluated in parents of children with CHD. We mailed a survey to measure the demographics, genetic knowledge, and attitudes towards genetic testing of parents of children with CHD who previously consented to participate in a separate research study of the genetic etiology of left ventricular outflow tract malformations (LVOT). Of the 378 eligible families, 190 (50%) returned surveys with both parents completing surveys in 97 (51%) families, resulting in 287 participants. Genetic knowledge was assessed on an adapted measure on which the mean percent correct was 73.8%. Educational attainment and household income were directly and significantly associated with genetic knowledge (P < 0.001). Attitudes about the health effects of genetic testing were favorable with at least 57% agreeing that genetic testing would be used for managing health care and finding cures for disease. Conversely, a minority of participants found it likely that genetic testing would be used for insurance (up to 39.9%), employment (15.8%), or racial/social discrimination (up to 11.2%). Parents of younger children were less likely to endorse employment or racial/social discrimination. Genetic knowledge was not correlated with specific attitudes. Among parents of children with CHD, genetic knowledge was directly associated with household income and education, but additional research is necessary to determine what factors influence attitudes towards genetic testing.

Outcomes of patients with low-risk endometrial cancer surgically staged without lymphadenectomy based on intra-operative evaluation.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to evaluate clinical outcomes in patients with stage I endometrial cancer undergoing surgical management without lymphadenectomy based on intra-operative assessment for low-risk disease. METHODS: Between 2000 and 2009, a total of 179 patients were surgically staged without lymphadenectomy for low-risk stage I endometrial cancer. Low-risk cancer was defined by intra-operative criteria based on both gross and frozen tissue microscopic evaluation: 1) G1 or G2 endometrioid histology; 2) myoinvasion <50%; 3) no cervical disease, and 4) no intra-abdominal metastasis. Records were reviewed for postoperative complications, pathological diagnoses, adjuvant radiation treatment, cancer recurrence, and mortality. RESULTS: Morbidity, cancer recurrence, and disease-specific mortality were low. Postoperative complications occurred in 5 patients (2.8%). Nine patients (5.0%) were offered adjuvant radiation for higher risk disease diagnosed on final pathology. Radiation morbidity was minimal: grade 1 vaginal toxicity in 2 patients. Three patients (1.7%) experienced recurrent cancer with mean time to recurrence of 43.7 months. Five year overall survival was 95.8%. The five year probability of disease-specific death was 1.1%. CONCLUSION: In an institution with reliable capability of pathological frozen tissue diagnosis, omission of lymph node dissection is a reasonable option in the surgical management of those patients with low-risk disease diagnosed by intra-operative factors.

Understanding of informed consent by parents of children enrolled in a genetic biobank.

PURPOSE: Prior research suggests that parents undervalue long-term risks associated with their children's participation in research studies. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate parental understanding of informed consent for a pediatric biobanking study. METHODS: The study population included parents who provided consent for their child to participate in a study examining the genetic etiology of congenital cardiovascular malformations. Informed consent understanding was measured by adapting the Quality of Informed Consent assessment to our study. We evaluated possible predictors of individual Quality of Informed Consent items using generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: A total of 252 individuals representing 188 families completed the study. The Quality of Informed Consent items best understood by parents included consent to participate in research, the main purpose of the study, and the possibility of no direct benefit. The items least understood by parents were those involving the indefinite storage of DNA, the possible risks of participation, and the fact that the study was not intended to treat their child's heart defect. Parent age and medical decision making by one versus both parents were frequent predictors of individual Quality of Informed Consent items. CONCLUSION: Parents overestimate personal benefit and underestimate the risks associated with their child's participation in a biobanking study.Genet Med 16 2, 141-148.

Anti-D immunoglobulin therapy for pediatric ITP: before and after the FDA's black box warning.

In March 2010, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued a black box warning for anti-D immunoglobulin (anti-D), an approved treatment for immune thrombocytopenia (ITP). It is unknown if and how clinical practice at U.S children's hospitals has since changed. We sought to describe inpatient anti-D usage, laboratory monitoring, and anti-D complications before and after the FDA warning. Using the Pediatric Health Information System, we collected data from 41 children's hospitals. There was a modest but statistically significant decrease in anti-D usage from pre-warning to post-warning. Severe complication rates were very low and did not change appreciably.

Patterns of inpatient care for newly diagnosed immune thrombocytopenia in US children's hospitals.

OBJECTIVE: Although recent evidence-based guidelines for the management of immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) recommend a conservative, observation-based approach for the majority of patients with newly diagnosed pediatric ITP, current practice patterns are unknown. This study used the Pediatric Health Information System database to examine patterns of inpatient care in newly diagnosed ITP in freestanding US children's hospitals and to examine geographic differences in care. METHODS: Data were extracted from Pediatric Health Information System for all newly diagnosed ITP admissions aged 1 to 18 years discharged between January 2008 and December 2010. Clinical data obtained included age, gender, length of stay, diagnoses, medications, and discharge status. RESULTS: We identified 2314 unique patients meeting the study diagnosis of newly diagnosed ITP. Noncutaneous bleeding occurred in 12% of patients (intracranial hemorrhage 0.6%), with epistaxis the most commonly reported symptom. Ninety percent of hospitalized patients received ITP-directed therapy, with intravenous immunoglobulin G the most commonly used therapy (78% of patients). We identified significant variation by geographic region in treatment strategies, length of stay, hospital charges, and likelihood of readmission. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial number of children with newly diagnosed ITP continue to be hospitalized and receive intravenous medications, although the majority of these patients do not have clinical bleeding events during the admission. By using these results as a backdrop, future studies will be able to identify if the number of ITP admissions, costs of care, and geographic variability in care decrease with the dissemination and implementation of recently published guidelines.

Ask Suicide-Screening Questions (ASQ): a brief instrument for the pediatric emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a brief screening instrument to assess the risk for suicide in pediatric emergency department patients. DESIGN: A prospective, cross-sectional instrument-development study evaluated 17 candidate screening questions assessing suicide risk in young patients. The Suicidal Ideation Questionnaire served as the criterion standard. SETTING: Three urban, pediatric emergency departments associated with tertiary care teaching hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: A convenience sample of 524 patients aged 10 to 21 years who presented with either medical/surgical or psychiatric chief concerns to the emergency department between September 10, 2008, and January 5, 2011. MAIN EXPOSURES: Participants answered 17 candidate questions followed by the Suicidal Ideation Questionnaire. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratios, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the best-fitting combinations of screening questions for detecting elevated risk for suicide. RESULTS: A total of 524 patients were screened (344 medical/surgical and 180 psychiatric). Fourteen of the medical/surgical patients (4%) and 84 of the psychiatric patients (47%) were at elevated suicide risk on the Suicidal Ideation Questionnaire. Of the 17 candidate questions, the best-fitting model comprised 4 questions assessing current thoughts of being better off dead, current wish to die, current suicidal ideation, and past suicide attempt. This model had a sensitivity of 96.9% (95% CI, 91.3-99.4), specificity of 87.6% (95% CI, 84.0-90.5), and negative predictive values of 99.7% (95% CI, 98.2-99.9) for medical/surgical patients and 96.9% (95% CI, 89.3-99.6) for psychiatric patients. CONCLUSIONS: A 4-question screening instrument, the Ask Suicide-Screening Questions (ASQ), with high sensitivity and negative predictive value, can identify the risk for suicide in patients presenting to pediatric emergency departments.

Utilization of low-molecular-weight heparin prophylaxis in pediatric and adolescent trauma patients.

The objective of this study was to use trauma registry data to describe the number and characteristics of patients 21 years or younger receiving thromboprophylaxis with low-molecular-weight heparin at 2 pediatric and 2 adult level 1 trauma centers. Among 706 patients, the average age was 18.5 years, and 94.6% were hospitalized at adult centers. The most common injuries were lower extremity fractures (35.6%) and head injuries (20.4%). Major bleeding was reported in 3 patients (0.4%), and thrombotic events were reported in 15 patients (2.1%). Despite a lack of scientific evidence, low-molecular-weight heparin prophylaxis is being used in young trauma patients (primarily those 14 years or older). Prospective multicenter studies are needed to accurately describe the risks and benefits of low-molecular-weight heparin prophylaxis in young trauma patients, thereby identifying those who truly benefit from this intervention.

Young adults with SCD in US children's hospitals: are they different from adolescents?

BACKGROUND: The period of transition from pediatric to adult care is a vulnerable time for patients with sickle cell disease (SCD). The optimal time for transition is unknown and there is no standard of care regarding this timing in the United States. PROCEDURES: We collected administrative data from the Pediatric Health Information System for all SCD admissions from 2000 to 2009. We compared reasons for hospitalization and resulting charges in adolescents (13-17 years) and young adults (18-21 years). RESULTS: We identified 25,371 admissions of adolescents (n = 18,299) and young adults (n = 7,072) with SCD. Median admissions per patient per year was higher in young adults (0.6) compared to adolescents (0.2, P < 0.001), but reasons for hospitalization were similar between the two age groups. Complications of adult SCD such as nephropathy and pulmonary hypertension were rare (<2.5% of discharges) but more frequent in older patients (P = 0.001). Although length of stay was similar between the two groups (median = 4 days), young adults tended to incur higher charges (median +$1,314, P < 0.001) and were less likely to utilize private insurance (P < 0.001). Deaths (0.2% of admissions) were rare and similar across age groups (P = 0.7). CONCLUSION: In a national sample of US children's hospitals, adolescents (13-17 years) and young adults (18-21 years) with SCD had similar reasons for hospitalization and low mortality. Further studies are needed to investigate whether extending the age of transition to ≥ 21 years as a national standard may decrease morbidity and mortality, improve health-related quality of life, or increase readiness for transition in patients with SCD.

Venous thromboembolism and adolescent and young adult oncology inpatients in US children's hospitals, 2001 to 2008.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the frequency of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in the adolescent and young adult oncology population and the effects of age and cancer type on VTE, and to characterize adolescent and young adult oncology admissions at US children's hospitals. STUDY DESIGN: We extracted data on oncology patients 15 to 24 years of age who were discharged from 35 hospitals in the Pediatric Hospital Information System (PHIS) between 2001 and 2008. RESULTS: Of 9721 unique patients, VTE occurred in 511 (5.3%). An elevated OR of VTE occurred in patients 18 to 20 and 21 to 24 years of age (OR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.36-2.00 and OR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.21-2.32, respectively) compared with that in patients 15 to 17 years old. Patients with leukemia (OR, 5.53; 95% CI, 3.63-8.42) and bone/soft tissue sarcomas (OR, 4.32; 95% CI, 2.80-6.69) had a higher risk of VTE compared with patients with brain tumors. The number of adolescent and young adult oncology admissions to pediatric hospitals increased 31.9%, from 5409 admissions in 2001 to 7134 admissions in 2008. CONCLUSIONS: Adolescent and young adult oncology patients, a growing population at pediatric hospitals, experience VTE as a common complication. Pediatricians should implement adolescent and young adult-specific studies to develop a standardized approach to preventing this adverse event.

Hormonal contraception use and pregnancy in adolescents with sickle cell disease: analysis of Michigan Medicaid claims.

BACKGROUND: Access to effective family planning is of great importance for women with sickle cell disease (SCD) due to the increased frequency of pregnancy complications. However, little is known regarding use of hormonal contraception, complications of contraception, and pregnancy in young women with SCD. STUDY DESIGN: We abstracted diagnostic codes, procedure codes and pharmacy claims from women with SCD, aged 13-21 years, enrolled in Michigan Medicaid between 1/1/2000 and 12/31/2003 with ≥ 9 months of continuous eligibility. RESULTS: We identified 250 women with SCD with an average period of continuous Medicaid enrollment of 20 months. Claims for hormonal contraception could be identified in only 20 patients (8%, 95% CI 5-12%). The most commonly prescribed method (n=12) was depot medroxyprogesterone (DMPA) acetate. Venous thromboembolism and osteopenia were rarely identified (n ≤ 10) and occurred only in women with no recorded use of hormonal contraception. In the total population, 64 patients had one pregnancy and 16 had ≥ 2 pregnancies during the 4-year study period. Among adolescents (13-18 years), 49 (30%) of 195 patients (95% CI 24-37%) had 59 pregnancies. By 12 weeks postpartum, few patients (n ≤ 10) with a record of delivery had hormonal contraception claims. CONCLUSIONS: In a publicly insured population of young women with SCD, pregnancy was more commonly identified than hormonal contraception use. Our work suggests that significant gaps may exist in family planning care for young women with SCD.

Screening, triage, and referral of patients who report suicidal thought during a primary care visit.

OBJECTIVE: Suicidal youths are rarely identified in primary care settings. We describe here a care process that includes a computerized screen, colocated social workers, and a coordinated suicide-prevention team at a specialty mental health unit. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients were 1547 youths aged 11 to 20 years seen in an urban primary care system during 2005 and 2006. We performed an observational study of services provided to youths who screened positive for suicidal ideation on a computerized behavioral health screen during visits to pediatric primary care clinics. Data included clinical records, provider notes, and patients' responses to the screen. RESULTS: A total of 209 (14%) youths reported suicidal thought in the previous month. Suicidal thought was more common among girls, younger youths, substance users, depressed youths, youths who carried weapons, and those who had been in fights; 87% reported at least 1 other serious behavioral health problem. Social workers were able to triage 205 (98%) youths. Triage occurred on the visit day for 193 youths (94%). Mental health evaluations were recommended for 152 (74%) of the triaged youths. Of the 109 subjects referred to a clinic with records accessible for review, 71 (65%) received a mental health service within 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: Pediatric primary care is a feasible setting in which to screen for suicidal youths and link them with mental health services. Youths who visit primary care clinics are willing to disclose suicidal ideation on a computerized screen. Youths who screen positive for suicide have many associated behavioral health needs. The use of information technology, colocated physician extenders, and a coordinated team on the mental health side can facilitate rapid, personal contact between the family and mental health service providers, and has the potential to overcome barriers to care for youths with suicidal ideation in the primary care setting.

A trial of telephone services to increase adolescent utilization of health care for psychosocial problems.

PURPOSE: Adolescents identified in primary care clinics as experiencing psychosocial problems frequently do not receive recommended referral mental health care services. The purpose of the present study was to test whether a Telephone Support Services (TSS) intervention would increase subsequent healthcare utilization. Our TSS intervention featured a combination of case management and motivational interviewing. METHOD: One hundred seventy-nine adolescents who screened positive for at least one of three psychosocial problems--depressive symptoms, suicidal ideation, or substance use--were randomly assigned to one of two study conditions. Eighty-nine participants were randomly assigned to TSS, and 90 participants were assigned to Enhanced Usual Care (UC+). Adolescents completed self-report interviews of medical and mental health utilization at 4 months. In addition, research staff queried our hospital's administrative data warehouse to obtain each participant's medical service and mental health service use at 6 months. RESULTS: TSS did not increase subsequent utilization of either medical or mental health services for adolescents screening positive for psychosocial problems in a primary care clinic. This finding held true whether service utilization was assessed through self-report or administrative data. DISCUSSION: The lack of experimental effect on healthcare utilization suggests that certain aspects of our TSS require modification in future work. On a positive note, given that each of the three TSS calls was completed by a strong majority of participants, TSS appears feasible and acceptable to adolescents with psychosocial problems.

Adolescent behavioral risk screening and use of health services.

This study assessed whether primary care based computerized screening for substance use, mental health issues and suicidal thoughts affects subsequent use of medical and behavioral health care services in adolescents. Administrative claims data were used to determine service use 6 months after a visit where screening could have occurred. Controlling for previous service use, screened youths were more likely to have post screening use than those not screened. Among the screened patients, medical service use did not differ by screening result. However, behavioral service use was higher for screened youths who screened positive for depression or suicidal thoughts.