Expert Recommendations to Bridge Gaps in Heart Failure Patient Support in the Middle East and Africa Region.

Heart failure (HF) remains a serious health and socioeconomic problem in the Middle East and Africa (MEA). The age-standardized prevalence rate for HF in the MEA region is higher compared to countries in Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. Also cardiovascular-related deaths remain high compared to their global counterparts. Moreover, in MEA, 66% of HF readmissions are elicited by potentially preventable factors, including delay in seeking medical attention, nonadherence to HF medication, suboptimal discharge planning, inadequate follow-up, and poor social support. Patient support in the form of activation, counseling, and caregiver education has been shown to improve outcomes in patients with HF. A multidisciplinary meeting with experts from different countries across the MEA region was convened to identify the current gaps and unmet needs for patient support for HF in the region. The panel provided insights into the real-world challenges in HF patient support and contributed strategic recommendations for optimizing HF care.

Strategic Recommendations to Bridge the Gaps in Awareness, Diagnosis and Prevention of Heart Failure in the Middle East Region and Africa.

Objective: With the increasing burden of heart failure (HF) in the Middle East Region and Africa (MEA), it is imperative to shift the focus to prevention and early detection of cardiovascular diseases. We present a broad consensus of the real-world challenges and strategic recommendations for optimising HF care in the MEA region. Method: To bridge the gaps in awareness, prevention, and diagnosis of HF, an assembly of experts from MEA shared their collective opinions on the urgent unmet needs. Results: Lack of awareness in the community, high prevalence of risk factors, poor accessibility and affordability of care and diagnostics are the major barriers for delayed or missed diagnosis of HF in MEA. Enhancing patient awareness, through digital or social media campaigns, alongside raising knowledge of healthcare providers and policymakers with training programmes, can pave the way for influencing policy decisions and implementation of robust HF programmes. Multicountry registries can foster development of guidelines factoring in local challenges and roadblocks for HF care. Region-specific guidelines including simplified diagnostic algorithms can provide a blueprint of care for early detection of at-risk patients and facilitate efficient referral, thus mitigating clinician "therapeutic inertia." Multidisciplinary care teams and HF clinics with expanded role of nurses can streamline lifestyle modification and optimum control of dyslipidaemia, blood pressure, and glycaemia through guideline-recommended prevention therapies such as sodiumglucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors-thus supporting pleiotropic effects in high-risk populations. Conclusion: Development of regional guidelines, enhancing awareness, leveraging digital technology, and commitment for adequate funding and reimbursement is pivotal for overcoming structural and health system-related barriers in the MEA region.

Predicting in-hospital all-cause mortality in heart failure using machine learning.

Background: The age of onset and causes of heart failure differ between high-income and low-and-middle-income countries (LMIC). Heart failure patients in LMIC also experience a higher mortality rate. Innovative ways that can risk stratify heart failure patients in this region are needed. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the utility of machine learning in predicting all-cause mortality in heart failure patients hospitalised in a tertiary academic centre. Methods: Six supervised machine learning algorithms were trained to predict in-hospital all-cause mortality using data from 500 consecutive heart failure patients with a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) less than 50%. Results: The mean age was 55.2 ± 16.8 years. There were 271 (54.2%) males, and the mean LVEF was 29 ± 9.2%. The median duration of hospitalisation was 7 days (interquartile range: 4-11), and it did not differ between patients discharged alive and those who died. After a prediction window of 4 years (interquartile range: 2-6), 84 (16.8%) patients died before discharge from the hospital. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.82, 0.78, 0.77, 0.76, 0.75, and 0.62 for random forest, logistic regression, support vector machines (SVM), extreme gradient boosting, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and decision trees, and the accuracy during the test phase was 88, 87, 86, 82, 78, and 76% for random forest, MLP, SVM, extreme gradient boosting, decision trees, and logistic regression. The support vector machines were the best performing algorithm, and furosemide, beta-blockers, spironolactone, early diastolic murmur, and a parasternal heave had a positive coefficient with the target feature, whereas coronary artery disease, potassium, oedema grade, ischaemic cardiomyopathy, and right bundle branch block on electrocardiogram had negative coefficients. Conclusion: Despite a small sample size, supervised machine learning algorithms successfully predicted all-cause mortality with modest accuracy. The SVM model will be externally validated using data from multiple cardiology centres in South Africa before developing a uniquely African risk prediction tool that can potentially transform heart failure management through precision medicine.

The prevalence of depression, stress and anxiety symptoms in patients with chronic heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Mental health illnesses are associated with frequent hospitalisation and an increased risk of all-cause mortality. Despite the high prevalence of depression in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF), there is a paucity of data on this subject from low and middle-income countries (LMIC). The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of depression, anxiety, and stress symptoms in patients attending a dedicated CHF clinic. METHODS: A prospective study was conducted at an outpatient heart failure clinic in a tertiary academic centre. The study participants completed a Depression, Anxiety and Stress (DASS-21) questionnaire to screen for the presence and severity of depression, anxiety and stress symptoms. Furthermore, the Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire (MLHFQ) was completed and used to evaluate the impact of CHF on health-related quality of life (QoL). Descriptive statistics were used to describe patients' characteristics and logistic regression analysis to identify predictors of symptoms of depression. RESULTS: The study population comprised of 103 patients, predominantly female (62.1%) with a median age of 53 (interquartile range 38-61) years. Symptoms of depression were reported by 52.4%, with 11.6% reporting symptoms suggestive of extremely severe depression. Anxiety was diagnosed in 53.4% of patients and extremely severe anxiety was reported by 18.4% of patients. Fifty patients were classified as stressed, and only 7.7% had extremely severe stress. More than half of the patients (54.4%) were in New York Heart Association functional class I. The mean left ventricular ejection fraction in the entire cohort was 30% (SD = ± 11.1%). In the multivariable logistic regression model, the MLHFQ score [odds ratio (OR) 1.04, 95% CI:1.02-1.06, p = 0.001] and the six-minute walk test [OR 0.99, 95% CI: 0.98-0.99, p = 0.014] were identified as independent predictors of depression. CONCLUSION: Depression and anxiety symptoms were found in over half of patients attending the CHF clinic. We recommend that mental health screening should be routinely performed in patients with CHF. Prospective, adequately powered, multicentre studies from LMIC investigating the impact of depression, anxiety and stress on CHF outcomes such as health-related QoL, hospitalisation and mortality are required.

Predicting mortality and hospitalization in heart failure using machine learning: A systematic literature review.

OBJECTIVE: The partnership between humans and machines can enhance clinical decisions accuracy, leading to improved patient outcomes. Despite this, the application of machine learning techniques in the healthcare sector, particularly in guiding heart failure patient management, remains unpopular. This systematic review aims to identify factors restricting the integration of machine learning derived risk scores into clinical practice when treating adults with acute and chronic heart failure. METHODS: Four academic research databases and Google Scholar were searched to identify original research studies where heart failure patient data was used to build models predicting all-cause mortality, cardiac death, all-cause and heart failure-related hospitalization. RESULTS: Thirty studies met the inclusion criteria. The selected studies' sample size ranged between 71 and 716 790 patients, and the median age was 72.1 (interquartile range: 61.1-76.8) years. The minimum and maximum area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for models predicting mortality were 0.48 and 0.92, respectively. Models predicting hospitalization had an AUC of 0.47 to 0.84. Nineteen studies (63%) used logistic regression, 53% random forests, and 37% of studies used decision trees to build predictive models. None of the models were built or externally validated using data originating from Africa or the Middle-East. CONCLUSIONS: The variation in the aetiologies of heart failure, limited access to structured health data, distrust in machine learning techniques among clinicians and the modest accuracy of existing predictive models are some of the factors precluding the widespread use of machine learning derived risk calculators.

Machine learning and statistical methods for predicting mortality in heart failure.

Heart failure is a debilitating clinical syndrome associated with increased morbidity, mortality, and frequent hospitalization, leading to increased healthcare budget utilization. Despite the exponential growth in the introduction of pharmacological agents and medical devices that improve survival, many heart failure patients, particularly those with a left ventricular ejection fraction less than 40%, still experience persistent clinical symptoms that lead to an overall decreased quality of life. Clinical risk prediction is one of the strategies that has been implemented for the selection of high-risk patients and for guiding therapy. However, most risk predictive models have not been well-integrated into the clinical setting. This is partly due to inherent limitations, such as creating risk predicting models using static clinical data that does not consider the dynamic nature of heart failure. Another limiting factor preventing clinicians from utilizing risk prediction models is the lack of insight into how predictive models are built. This review article focuses on describing how predictive models for risk-stratification of patients with heart failure are built.

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors at the intersection of cardiovascular, renal and metabolic care: an integrated and multidisciplinary approach to patient-centered care.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The management of individuals who live with type 2 diabetes requires an integrated and multifaceted approach. RECENT FINDINGS: Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors effectively prevent and treat cardiorenal complications in the presence of type 2 diabetes. They also reduce death and disease progression in those with established heart failure (with reduced ejection fraction) in the absence of diabetes. SUMMARY: Close collaborations between primary care physicians, cardiovascular specialists, endocrinologists and nephrologists are necessary to optimize cardiovascular, renal and metabolic risk reduction in their shared patients.

Cardiology-cardiothoracic subspeciality training in South Africa: a position paper of the South Africa Heart Association.

Over the past decades, South Africa has undergone rapid demographic changes, which have led to marked increases in specific cardiac disease categories, such as rheumatic heart disease (now predominantly presenting in young adults with advanced and symptomatic disease) and coronary artery disease (with rapidly increasing prevalence in middle age). The lack of screening facilities, delayed diagnosis and inadequate care at primary, secondary and tertiary levels have led to a large burden of patients with heart failure. This leads to suffering of the patients and substantial costs to society and the healthcare system. In this position paper, the South African Heart Association (SA Heart) National Council members have summarised the current state of cardiology, cardiothoracic surgery and paediatric cardiology reigning in South Africa. Our report demonstrates that there has been minimal change in the number of successfully qualified specialists over the last decade and, therefore, a de facto decline per capita. We summarise the major gaps in training and possible interventions to transform the healthcare system, dealing with the colliding epidemic of communicable disease and the rapidly expanding epidemic of non-communicable disease, including cardiac disease.

South African dyslipidaemia guideline consensus statement.

The European Society of Cardiology together with the European Atherosclerosis Society published updated dyslipidaemia guidelines in 2011. SA Heart and the Lipid and Atherosclerosis Society of Southern Africa officially adopt these guidelines. This statement adapts aspects of the guidelines to the South African situation. Using the updated Framingham risk charts, interventional strategies are based according to the cardiovascular risk score and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels. The Framingham risk score refers to the 10-year risk of any cardiovascular event, and includes four categories of risk. Treatment targets are those of the European guidelines. The LDL-C goal is 1.8 mmol/l for the very high-risk group (>30%), 2.5 mmol/l for the high-risk group (15-30%), and 3 mmol/l for those below 15% risk. Intensive management of dyslipidaemia in South Africa will significantly reduce the cardiovascular disease health burden.

Predisposing factors and incidence of newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in an urban African community: insights from the Heart of Soweto Study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the incidence and clinical characteristics of newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) in urban Africans in epidemiological transition. METHODS: This observational cohort study was carried out in the Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital in Soweto South Africa. A clinical registry captured detailed clinical data on all de novo cases of AF presenting to the Cardiology Unit during the period 2006-2008. RESULTS: Overall, 246 of 5328 cardiac cases (4.6%) presented with AF (estimated 5.6 cases/100 000 population/annum). Mean age was 59±18 years and the majority were of African descent (n=211, 86%) and/or female (n=150, 61%). Men were more than twice as likely to smoke (OR 2.88, 95% CI 1.92 to 4.04) than women, but women were twice as likely to be obese (OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.28 to 2.52) than men. Lone AF occurred in 22 (8.9%) cases, while concurrent valve disease and/or functional valvular abnormality occurred in 107 cases (44%). Overall, 171 cases (70%) presented with uncontrolled AF (ventricular rate >90 beats/min) with no sex-based differences. Common co-morbidities were any form of heart failure (56%) and rheumatic heart disease (21%). Women with AF were more likely to present with hypertensive heart failure (OR 2.37, 95% CI 1.24 to 4.54) but less likely to present with a dilated cardiomyopathy (OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.23 to 0.76) or coronary artery disease (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.14 to 1.02) than men. Mean overall CHADS(2) score (in 195 non-rheumatic cases) was 1.51±0.91 and, despite a similar age profile, women had higher scores than men (1.73±0.94 vs 1.24±0.78; p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: These unique data suggest that urban Africans in Soweto develop AF at a relatively young age. Conventional strategies used to manage and treat AF need to be carefully evaluated in this setting.

Effects of succinobucol (AGI-1067) after an acute coronary syndrome: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Oxidative stress and inflammation are involved in the pathophysiology of atherosclerosis. Our aim was to assess the effects of the antioxidant succinobucol (AGI-1067) on cardiovascular outcomes in patients with recent acute coronary syndromes already managed with conventional treatments. METHODS: After an acute coronary syndrome occurring 14-365 days before recruitment, 6144 patients were randomly assigned with a computer-generated randomisation list, stratified by study site, to receive succinobucol (n=3078) or placebo (n=3066) in addition to standard of care. Enrolment began in July, 2003; this event-driven trial was stopped in August, 2006, after the prespecified number of primary outcome events had occurred. The composite primary endpoint was time to first occurrence of cardiovascular death, resuscitated cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, stroke, unstable angina, or coronary revascularisation. Efficacy analyses were done by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00066898. FINDINGS: All randomised patients were included in the efficacy analyses. Succinobucol had no effect on the primary endpoint (530 events in succinobucol group vs 529 in placebo group; hazard ratio 1.00, 95% CI 0.89-1.13, p=0.96). The composite secondary endpoint of cardiovascular death, cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, or stroke occurred in fewer patients in the succinobucol group than in the placebo group (207 vs 252 events; 0.81, 0.68-0.98, p=0.029). The tertiary endpoint of new-onset diabetes developed in fewer patients without diabetes at baseline in the succinobucol group than in such patients in the placebo group (30 of 1923 vs 82 of 1950 patients; 0.37, 0.24-0.56, p<0.0001). New-onset atrial fibrillation occurred more often in the succinobucol group than in the placebo group (107 of 2818 vs 55 of 2787 patients; 1.87, 1.67-2.09, p=0.0002). Although the number of patients who reported any treatment emergent adverse event was much the same in the two groups, more patients in the succinobucol group than in the placebo group reported bleeding episodes or anaemia (32 vs 18 and 37 vs ten, respectively) as serious adverse events. Relative to treatment with placebo, succinobucol increased LDL cholesterol and systolic blood pressure, and decreased HDL cholesterol and glycated haemoglobin (p<0.0001 for all). INTERPRETATION: Although succinobucol had no effect on the primary endpoint, changes in the rates of other clinical outcomes-both beneficial and harmful-will need to be further assessed before succinobucol is used in patients with atherosclerosis or as an antidiabetic agent.

Evaluation of eplerenone in the subgroup of EPHESUS patients with baseline left ventricular ejection fraction

AIMS: Because of the prognostic importance of LV dysfunction following an AMI and the increasing use of electrical and/or mechanical interventions in patients with LV systolic dysfunction, this retrospective analysis of EPHESUS patients with LVEF

Percutaneous endovascular occlusion of symptomatic coronary arteriovenous fistulas with cyanoacrylate.

We describe four cases with symptomatic coronary artery fistulas that were treated primarily with endovascular cyanoacrylate embolization. Coils were also used as adjunctive embolic agents in two of these cases. All four cases showed symptomatic improvement after closure of the fistulas. Complications occurred in three cases including transient ST-segment elevation in one, symptomatic pulmonary embolization in a second, and transient pleuritic chest pain, pericarditis and acute renal failure in a third. The technical aspects of all four cases are given together with a review of the use of cyanoacrylate as an embolic material. We conclude that cyanoacrylate embolization could be considered as an alternative technique for the endovascular closure of coronary artery fistulas but must also caution that the use of this embolic agent is hazardous and should be restricted to practitioners experienced in its usage.