Determining quantitative road safety targets by applying statistical prediction techniques and a multi-stage adjustment procedure.

Due to substantial progress made in road safety in the last ten years, the European Union (EU) renewed the ambitious agreement of halving the number of persons killed on the roads within the next decade. In this paper we develop a method that aims at finding an optimal target for each nation, in terms of being as achievable as possible, and with the cumulative EU target being reached. Targets as an important component in road safety policy are given as reduction rate or as absolute number of road traffic deaths. Determination of these quantitative road safety targets (QRST) is done by a top-down approach, formalized in a multi-stage adjustment procedure. Different QRST are derived under consideration of recent research. The paper presents a method to break the national target further down to regional targets in case of the German Federal States. Generalized linear models are fitted to data in the period 1991-2010. Our model selection procedure chooses various models for the EU and solely log-linear models for the German Federal States. If the proposed targets for the EU Member States are attained, the sum of fatalities should not exceed the total value of 15,465 per year by 2020. Both, the mean level and the range of mortality rates within the EU could be lowered from 28-113 in 2010 to 17-41 per million inhabitants in 2020. This study provides an alternative to the determination of safety targets by political commitments only, taking the history of road fatalities trends and population into consideration.

Industry-sponsored economic studies in oncology vs studies sponsored by nonprofit organisations.

The purpose of this analysis of health economic studies in the field of oncology was to investigate among sponsored studies whether any relationship could be established between the type of sponsorship and (1) type of economic analysis, (2) health technology assessed, (3) sensitivity analysis performed, (4) publication status, and (5) qualitative conclusions about costs. The Health Economic Evaluations Database (HEED, version 1995-2000) was searched on the basis of oncological ICD-9 codes, sponsorship, and comparative studies. This search yielded a total of 150 eligible articles. Their evaluations were prepared independently by two investigators, on the basis of specific criteria. When evaluators disagreed, a third investigator provided a deciding evaluation. There was no statistically significant relationship between the type of sponsorship and sensitivity analysis performed (P=0.29) or publication status (P=0.08). However, we found a significant relationship between the types of sponsorship and of economic analysis (P=0.004), the health technology assessed (P<0.0001), and qualitative cost assessment (P=0.002). Studies with industrial sponsorship were 2.56 (99% lower confidence interval (CI)=1.28) times more likely to involve cost-minimisation analyses, were 0.04 (99% higher CI=0.39) times less likely to investigate diagnostic screening methods, and were 1.86 (99% lower CI=1.21) times more likely to reach positive qualitative conclusions about costs than studies supported by nonprofit organisations. In conclusion, our results suggest that there is a greater probability that industry-sponsored economic studies in the field of oncology tend to be cost-minimisation analyses, to investigate less likely diagnostic screening methods, and to draw positive qualitative conclusions about costs, as compared to studies supported by nonprofit organisations.

[The course of ovulation in gilts after the use of two GnRH injections for ovulation stimulation]. / Untersuchungen zum Ovulationsverlauf bei Jungsauen nach Anwendung von zwei Gn-RH-Injektionen zur Ovulationsstimulation.

The status of ovulation and amount of ovulated follicles in 410 gilts which had received differentiated pretreatment produced evidence to the feasibility of substitution of HCG by Gn-RH vet. "Berlin-Chemie" to stimulate ovulation. Yet, 2 injections are necessary with an adequate interval between them and with appropriate dosage. The highest synchronisation effect in all experimental variants was obtained from 350 and 750 micrograms of Gn-RH with 50 minutes in between or 750 plus 750 micrograms of Gn-RH with an interval of 40 minutes. Ovulation was most reliably stimulated by 500 I.U. of HCG.