Disorder or a new order: How climate change affects phenological variability.

Advancing spring phenology is a well documented consequence of anthropogenic climate change, but it is not well understood how climate change will affect the variability of phenology year to year. Species' phenological timings reflect the adaptation to a broad suite of abiotic needs (e.g., thermal energy) and biotic interactions (e.g., predation and pollination), and changes in patterns of variability may disrupt those adaptations and interactions. Here, we present a geographically and taxonomically broad analysis of phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and changes in interannual variability encompassing nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time series representing more than 1000 species across much of the Northern Hemisphere. We show that the timings of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival were the most sensitive to temperature variation and have advanced at the fastest pace for early-season species in colder and less seasonal regions. We did not find evidence for changing variability in warmer years in any phenophase groups, although leaf-out and flower phenology have become moderately but significantly less variable over time. Our findings suggest that climate change has not to this point fundamentally altered the patterns of interannual phenological variability.

COVID-19 pandemic drives changes in participation in citizen science project "City Nature Challenge" in Tokyo.

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the way large citizen science events can be carried out-reducing gatherings of large groups and shifting toward individual, small-group, and online participation. This paper aims to describe changes in participant engagement in the City Nature Challenge (CNC) in Tokyo. The CNC is a four-day international event held in April to document biodiversity in cities using an online citizen science platform, iNaturalist. To assess the impact of COVID-19, we compared the number of participants, observations, species, and identification rates in 2019 (pre-pandemic) and 2020 (during the pandemic). We also used cluster analysis to elucidate participation patterns, and we assessed changes in the geographical distribution of observation sites. The results showed: (1) the number of participants and observations decreased by 63% and 68%, respectively; however, the number of species was almost the same in the two years, and the identification rate increased 154% in 2020 relative to 2019. (2) The most enthusiastic participants contributed in similar amounts in 2019 and 2020, but participation by less enthusiastic volunteers drastically declined. (3) The spatial distribution of observation sites changed from cluster-like to scattered. Understanding participant engagement during the pandemic could help to improve data quality, reduce geographical bias in observations, maintain records, and recruit more users in future years. Online citizen science could provide opportunities for many citizens to get outside and participate in conservation science during and after the pandemic.

Modeling daily flowering probabilities: expected impact of climate change on Japanese cherry phenology.

Understanding the drivers of phenological events is vital for forecasting species' responses to climate change. We developed flexible Bayesian survival regression models to assess a 29-year, individual-level time series of flowering phenology from four taxa of Japanese cherry trees (Prunus spachiana, Prunus × yedoensis, Prunus jamasakura, and Prunus lannesiana), from the Tama Forest Cherry Preservation Garden in Hachioji, Japan. Our modeling framework used time-varying (chill and heat units) and time-invariant (slope, aspect, and elevation) factors. We found limited differences among taxa in sensitivity to chill, but earlier flowering taxa, such as P. spachiana, were more sensitive to heat than later flowering taxa, such as P. lannesiana. Using an ensemble of three downscaled regional climate models under the A1B emissions scenario, we projected shifts in flowering timing by 2100. Projections suggest that each taxa will flower about 30 days earlier on average by 2100 with 2-6 days greater uncertainty around the species mean flowering date. Dramatic shifts in the flowering times of cherry trees may have implications for economically important cultural festivals in Japan and East Asia. The survival models used here provide a mechanistic modeling approach and are broadly applicable to any time-to-event phenological data, such as plant leafing, bird arrival time, and insect emergence. The ability to explicitly quantify uncertainty, examine phenological responses on a fine time scale, and incorporate conditions leading up to an event may provide future insight into phenologically driven changes in carbon balance and ecological mismatches of plants and pollinators in natural populations and horticultural crops.

Beyond seasonal climate: statistical estimation of phenological responses to weather.

Phenological events, such as the timing of flowering or insect emergence, are influenced by a complex combination of climatic and non-climatic factors. Although temperature is generally considered most important, other weather events such as frosts and precipitation events can also influence many species' phenology. Non-climatic variables such as photoperiod and site-specific habitat characteristics can also have important effects on phenology. Forecasting phenological shifts due to climate change requires understanding and quantifying how these multiple factors combine to affect phenology. However, current approaches to analyzing phenological data have a limited ability for quantifying multiple drivers simultaneously. Here, we use a novel statistical approach to estimate the combined effects of multiple variables, including local weather events, on the phenology of several taxa (a tree, an insect, and a fungus). We found that thermal forcing had a significant positive effect on each species, frost events delayed the phenology of the tree and butterfly, and precipitation had a positive effect on fungal fruiting. Using data from sites across latitudinal gradients, we found that these effects are remarkably consistent across sites once latitude and other site effects are accounted for. This consistency suggests an underlying biological response to these variables that is not commonly estimated using data from field observations. This approach's flexibility will be useful for forecasting ongoing phenological responses to changes in climate variability in addition to seasonal trends.

Distribution of antibiotic resistance in urban watershed in Japan.

Antibiotic-resistant E. coli concentrations showed large spatial and temporal variations, with greater concentrations observed in tributaries and downstream than in the upstream and midstream. Twenty percent of the geometric mean concentrations of antibiotic-resistant E. coli in the Tama River basin (Japan) exceeded the maximum acceptable concentration of indicator E. coli established by the USEPA. The indicator E. coli concentrations were positively correlated with those of antibiotic-resistant E. coli and multiple-antibiotic-resistant E. coli (resistance to more than two kinds of antibiotics), respectively, but not the detection rate of antibiotic-resistant E. coli, implying that use of antibiotic-resistant E. coli concentration rather than the detection rate can be a better approach for water quality assessment. Multiple-antibiotic-resistant E. coli is a useful indicator for estimating the resistance diffusion, water quality degradation and public health risk potential. This assessment provides beneficial information for setting national regulatory or environmental standards and managing integrated watershed areas.

Disentangling the paradox of insect phenology: are temporal trends reflecting the response to warming?

The strength and direction of phenological responses to changes in climate have been shown to vary significantly both among species and among populations of a species, with the overall patterns not fully resolved. Here, we studied the temporal and spatial variability associated with the response of several insect species to recent global warming. We use hierarchical models within a model comparison framework to analyze phenological data gathered over 40 years by the Japan Meteorological Agency on the emergence dates of 14 insect species at sites across Japan. Contrary to what has been predicted with global warming, temporal trends of annual emergence showed a later emergence day for some species and sites over time, even though temperatures are warming. However, when emergence data were analyzed as a function of temperature and precipitation, the overall response pointed out an earlier emergence day with warmer conditions. The apparent contradiction between the response to temperature and trends over time indicates that other factors, such as declining populations, may be affecting the date phenological events are being recorded. Overall, the responses by insects were weaker than those found for plants in previous work over the same time period in these ecosystems, suggesting the potential for ecological mismatches with deleterious effects for both suites of species. And although temperature may be the major driver of species phenology, we should be cautious when analyzing phenological datasets as many other factors may also be contributing to the variability in phenology.

Forecasting phenology under global warming.

As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953-2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology.

Effects of combined sewer overflow and stormwater on indicator bacteria concentrations in the Tama River due to the high population density of Tokyo Metropolitan area.

The indicator bacteria (standard plate count, total coliform, and fecal coliform bacteria) concentrations have been investigated using six ambient habitats (population density, percent sewer penetration, stream flow rate (m(3)/sec), percent residential area, percent forest area and percent agricultural area) in the Tama River basin in Tokyo, Japan during June 2003 to January 2005. The downstream and tributary Tama River showed higher concentrations of TC and FC bacteria than the upstream waters, which exceeded an environmental quality standard for rivers and a bathing water quality criterion. It was estimated that combined sewer overflow (CSO) and stormwater effluents contributed -4-23% to the indicator bacteria concentrations of the Tama River. The results of multiple regression analyses show that the indicator bacteria concentrations of Tama River basin are significantly affected by population density. It is concluded that the Tama River received a significant bacterial contamination load originating from the anthropogenic source.

Influence of treated sewage effluent on organic pollution assessment in the Sakai River basin in Central Japan.

A 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD(5)) test has been used as the standard measurement of organic pollution in rivers worldwide. However, it may be argued that BOD is not a sufficient indicator of organic pollution when nitrogenous biochemical oxygen demand (NBOD) is present in water samples. In this study, BOD, NBOD, and carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD) of treated sewage effluent (TSE) were measured near at the discharge outlet of 3 sewage treatment plants (STPs) in Sakai, Itachi, and Kashio rivers in Central Japan. Additional measurements were conducted at one point upstream and two points downstream from the STP discharge points in the rivers. It was estimated that NBOD values in the TSE of Sakai River, Kashio River and Itachi River accounted for 54%, 69% and 18% of their BOD values, respectively. Respective NH4+ and NO2- concentrations were positively correlated with those of NBOD values in Sakai, Itachi, and Kashio rivers. The BOD loads from the TSE were estimated to be 2.2, 5.7, and 1.2 times higher than the CBOD loads in the Sakai, Itachi, and Kashio rivers, respectively. The variation of the portion of NBOD values of each TSE, as well as the ratios of CBOD to BOD loads, was attributed to the difference in each STP system. Consequently, the NH4+ and NO2- of TSE led to the increase of NBOD in the Sakai River basin.

Participatory conservation approaches for satoyama, the traditional forest and agricultural landscape of Japan.

The traditional agricultural landscape of Japan, known as satoyama, consists of a mixture of forests, wet rice paddy fields, grasslands, and villages. This landscape supports a great diversity of plant and animal species, many of which are significant to the Japanese culture. The satoyama landscape is currently being rapidly converted to residential and industrial uses in Japan's expanding metropolitan areas, with the local loss of many species. Only 7% of the land in the Yokohama area remains as satoyama. City residents and older farmers have become key participants in programs to protect examples of satoyama. Many urban residents value the experience of participating in agricultural and conservation activities once they are made aware of the threat faced by the satoyama landscape. In one particularly successful program, conservation efforts and fund-raising are linked to "Totoro", an imaginary forest animal featured in a popular animated film.