RNA interference to combat the Asian tiger mosquito in Europe: A pathway from design of an innovative vector control tool to its application.

The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus is currently spreading across Europe, facilitated by climate change and global transportation. It is a vector of arboviruses causing human diseases such as chikungunya, dengue hemorrhagic fever and Zika fever. For the majority of these diseases, no vaccines or therapeutics are available. Options for the control of Ae. albopictus are limited by European regulations introduced to protect biodiversity by restricting or phasing out the use of pesticides, genetically modified organisms (GMOs) or products of genome editing. Alternative solutions are thus urgently needed to avoid a future scenario in which Europe faces a choice between prioritizing human health or biodiversity when it comes to Aedes-vectored pathogens. To ensure regulatory compliance and public acceptance, these solutions should preferably not be based on chemicals or GMOs and must be cost-efficient and specific. The present review aims to synthesize available evidence on RNAi-based mosquito vector control and its potential for application in the European Union. The recent literature has identified some potential target sites in Ae. albopictus and formulations for delivery. However, we found little information concerning non-target effects on the environment or human health, on social aspects, regulatory frameworks, or on management perspectives. We propose optimal designs for RNAi-based vector control tools against Ae. albopictus (target product profiles), discuss their efficacy and reflect on potential risks to environmental health and the importance of societal aspects. The roadmap from design to application will provide readers with a comprehensive perspective on the application of emerging RNAi-based vector control tools for the suppression of Ae. albopictus populations with special focus on Europe.

Infection with acanthocephalans increases tolerance of Gammarus roeselii (Crustacea: Amphipoda) to pyrethroid insecticide deltamethrin.

Crustacean amphipods serve as intermediate hosts for parasites and are at the same time sensitive indicators of environmental pollution in aquatic ecosystems. The extent to which interaction with the parasite influences their persistence in polluted ecosystems is poorly understood. Here, we compared infections of Gammarus roeselii with two species of Acanthocephala, Pomphorhynchus laevis, and Polymorphus minutus, along a pollution gradient in the Rhine-Main metropolitan region of Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Prevalence of P. laevis was very low at the unpolluted upstream reaches (P ≤ 3%), while higher prevalence (P ≤ 73%) and intensities of up to 9 individuals were found further downstream-close to an effluent of a large wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). Co-infections of P. minutus and P. laevis occurred in 11 individuals. Highest prevalence of P. minutus was P ≤ 9% and one parasite per amphipod host was the maximum intensity recorded. In order to assess whether the infection affects survival in the polluted habitats, we tested the sensitivity of infected and uninfected amphipods towards the pyrethroide insecticide deltamethrin. We found an infection-dependent difference in sensitivity within the first 72 h, with an effect concentration (24 h EC50) of 49.8 ng/l and 26.6 ng/l for infected and uninfected G. roeselii, respectively. Whereas final host abundance might partially explain the high prevalence of P. laevis in G. roeselii, the results of the acute toxicity test suggest a beneficial effect of acanthocephalan infection for G. roeselii at polluted sites. A strong accumulation of pollutants in the parasite could serve as a sink for pesticide exposure of the host. Due to the lack of a co-evolutionary history between parasite and host and a lack of behavioral manipulation (unlike in co-evolved gammarids), the predation risk by fish remains the same, explaining high local prevalence. Thus, our study exemplifies how organismic interaction can favor the persistence of a species under chemical pollution.

Ticks on the move-climate change-induced range shifts of three tick species in Europe: current and future habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus in comparison with Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus.

Tick-borne diseases are a major health problem worldwide and could become even more important in Europe in the future. Due to changing climatic conditions, ticks are assumed to be able to expand their ranges in Europe towards higher latitudes and altitudes, which could result in an increased occurrence of tick-borne diseases.There is a great interest to identify potential (new) areas of distribution of vector species in order to assess the future infection risk with vector-borne diseases, improve surveillance, to develop more targeted monitoring program, and, if required, control measures.Based on an ecological niche modelling approach we project the climatic suitability for the three tick species Ixodes ricinus, Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus under current and future climatic conditions in Europe. These common tick species also feed on humans and livestock and are vector competent for a number of pathogens.For niche modelling, we used a comprehensive occurrence data set based on several databases and publications and six bioclimatic variables in a maximum entropy approach. For projections, we used the most recent IPCC data on current and future climatic conditions including four different scenarios of socio-economic developments.Our models clearly support the assumption that the three tick species will benefit from climate change with projected range expansions towards north-eastern Europe and wide areas in central Europe with projected potential co-occurrence.A higher tick biodiversity and locally higher abundances might increase the risk of tick-borne diseases, although other factors such as pathogen prevalence and host abundances are also important.

Gene expression and allergenic potential of Pseudoterranova bulbosa L3 from different infection sites in North Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua).

The recent advances in molecular methods and data processing have facilitated research on anisakid nematodes. While most research efforts were made regarding the genus Anisakis, since this genus is held responsible for the majority of reported clinical signs, there is still a demand for data on the genus Pseudoterranova. Several case studies of severe invasive anisakidosis affecting various organs caused by species of the P. decipiens complex have been described. To better understand the way these parasites might infest their fish host, we examined whether parasite location within the fish host affects gene expression. A de novo assembly of the transcriptome of Pseudoterranova bulbosa, isolated from North Atlantic cod, was analysed for patterns of differential gene expression between samples taken from liver and viscera. We additionally searched for homologs to known nematode allergens, to give a first estimate of the potential allergenicity of P. bulbosa. There was a subtle difference in the gene expression of samples taken from liver and viscera. Seventy genes were differentially expressed, 32 genes were upregulated in parasites isolated from liver and 38 genes were upregulated in parasites from viscera. Homologs of five nematode allergens were identified among the genes expressed by P. bulbosa. Our transcriptome of P. bulbosa will be a valuable resource for further meta-analyses and resequencing projects.

Parasites of Three Closely Related Antarctic Fish Species (Teleostei: Nototheniinae) from Elephant Island.

BACKGROUND: Studies of parasite communities and patterns in the Antarctic are an important knowledge base with the potential to track shifts in ecological relations and study the effects of climate change on host-parasite systems. Endemic Nototheniinae is the dominant fish group found in Antarctic marine habitats. Through their intermediate position within the food web, Nototheniinae link lower to higher trophic levels and thereby also form an important component of parasite life cycles. The study was set out to gain insight into the parasite fauna of Nototheniops larseni, N. nudifrons and Lepidonotothen squamifrons (Nototheniinae) from Elephant Island (Antarctica). METHODS: Sampling was conducted at three locations around Elephant Island during the ANT-XXVIII/4 expedition of the research vessel Polarstern. The parasite fauna of three Nototheniine species was analysed, and findings were compared to previous parasitological and ecological research collated from a literature review. RESULTS: All host species shared the parasites Neolebouria antarctica (Digenea), Corynosoma bullosum (Acanthocephala) and Pseudoterranova decipiens E (Nematoda). Other parasite taxa were exclusive to one host species in this study. Nototheniops nudifrons was infected by Ascarophis nototheniae (Nematoda), occasional infections of N. larseni with Echinorhynchus petrotschenkoi (Acanthocephala) and L. squamifrons with Elytrophalloides oatesi (Digenea) and larval tetraphyllidean Cestoda were detected. CONCLUSION: All examined fish species' parasites were predominantly euryxenous regarding their fish hosts. The infection of Lepidonotothen squamifrons with Lepidapedon garrardi (Digenea) and Nototheniops larseni with Echinorhynchus petrotschenkoi represent new host records. Despite the challenges and limited opportunities for fishing in remote areas, future studies should continue sampling on a more regular basis and include a larger number of fish species and sampling sites within different habitats.

Insights into the Urogymnid whiprays (Chondrichthyes: Batoidea) in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, with an amendment of their diagnostic characteristics and dispersal range.

Correct identification of elasmobranch species is crucial for taxonomic and parasitological research. Although molecular barcoding may be the fastest choice to determine the identity of a given species, robust and fast species level identification in the field using morphological characters is essential. During this study, 389 specimens representing seven stingray species (Brevitrygon walga, Himantura leoparda, H. uarnak, Maculabatis randalli, M. arabica, M. gerrardi and Pateobatis fai) were examined from the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. A 1044 bp fragment of the NADH2 gene was generated for 50 specimens with representatives of all species. To verify the initial morphological identification and to compare intra- and interspecific differences a Neighbor-Joining analysis was conducted using uncorrected p-distances, whereas the Bayesian Inference was used to examine the relationships among taxa. Two species (M. arabica and M. gerrardi) are documented from the Persian Gulf for the first time. The molecular results provide the first known evidence of the sympatric distribution of M. randalli and M. arabica in the north and northwestern Indian Ocean. The results of the Bayesian Inference support the recent divergence of both species. Based on morphological comparisons and molecular support we suggest that the descriptions of M. randalli and M. arabica have been carried out on heterogeneous type series which has led to inconsistency between molecular identification and diagnostic morphological characteristics. Detailed morphological examination revealed that there is a relation between the type and number of denticles on the mid-dorsal surface of the disc and the color pattern of the tail. To address this taxonomic conflict all type materials should be re-examined. The Bayesian Inference tree showed that all specimens from the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman morphologically resembling B. walga were found to group well outside those of the Indian species (B. imbricata) with an average p-distance of 0.097. The low nucleotide differences among the urogymnid taxa (P. fai and H. leoparda) from the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman and their conspecific specimens in the Indo-West Pacific region revealed that philopatric behaviors may cause considerable gene flow among populations.

Bats as putative Zaire ebolavirus reservoir hosts and their habitat suitability in Africa.

The genus Ebolavirus comprises some of the deadliest viruses for primates and humans and associated disease outbreaks are increasing in Africa. Different evidence suggests that bats are putative reservoir hosts and play a major role in the transmission cycle of these filoviruses. Thus, detailed knowledge about their distribution might improve risk estimations of where future disease outbreaks might occur. A MaxEnt niche modelling approach based on climatic variables and land cover was used to investigate the potential distribution of 9 bat species associated to the Zaire ebolavirus. This viral species has led to major Ebola outbreaks in Africa and is known for causing high mortalities. Modelling results suggest suitable areas mainly in the areas near the coasts of West Africa with extensions into Central Africa, where almost all of the 9 species studied find suitable habitat conditions. Previous spillover events and outbreak sites of the virus are covered by the modelled distribution of 3 bat species that have been tested positive for the virus not only using serology tests but also PCR methods. Modelling the habitat suitability of the bats is an important step that can benefit public information campaigns and may ultimately help control future outbreaks of the disease.

Modelling the climatic suitability of Chagas disease vectors on a global scale.

The Triatominae are vectors for Trypanosoma cruzi, the aetiological agent of the neglected tropical Chagas disease. Their distribution stretches across Latin America, with some species occurring outside of the Americas. In particular, the cosmopolitan vector, Triatoma rubrofasciata, has already been detected in many Asian and African countries. We applied an ensemble forecasting niche modelling approach to project the climatic suitability of 11 triatomine species under current climate conditions on a global scale. Our results revealed potential hotspots of triatomine species diversity in tropical and subtropical regions between 21°N and 24°S latitude. We also determined the climatic suitability of two temperate species (T. infestans, T. sordida) in Europe, western Australia and New Zealand. Triatoma rubrofasciata has been projected to find climatically suitable conditions in large parts of coastal areas throughout Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia, emphasising the importance of an international vector surveillance program in these regions.

Global occurrence data improve potential distribution models for Aedes japonicus japonicus in non-native regions.

BACKGROUND: There is great interest in modelling the distribution of invasive species, particularly from the point of view of management. However, distribution modelling for invasive species using ecological niche models (ENMs) involves multiple challenges. Owing to the short time span since the introduction or arrival of a non-indigenous species and the associated dispersal limitations, applying regular ENMs at an early stage of the invasion process may result in an underestimation of the potential niche in the new ranges. This topic is dealt with here using the example of Aedes japonicus japonicus, a vector competent mosquito species for a number of diseases. RESULTS: We found high niche unfilling for the species' non-native range niches in Europe and North America compared with the native range niche, which can be explained by the early stage of the invasion process. Comparing four different ENMs based on: (i) the European and (ii) the North American non-native range occurrence data, (iii) (derived) native range occurrence data, and (iv) all available occurrence data together, we found large differences in the projected climatic suitability, with the global data model projecting larger areas with climatic suitability. CONCLUSION: ENM in biological invasions can be challenging, especially when distribution data are only poorly available. We suggest one possible way to project climatic suitability for Aedes j. japonicus despite poor data availability for the non-native ranges and missing occurrences from the native range. We discuss aspects of the lack of information and the associated implications for modelling. © 2020 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Mitochondrial DNA-Based Identification of Forensically Important Flesh Flies (Diptera: Sarcophagidae) in Thailand.

Flesh flies (Sarcophagidae) are necrophagous insects initially colonizing on a corpse. The species-specific developmental data of the flies collected from a death scene can be used to estimate the minimum postmortem interval (PMImin). Thus, the first crucial step is to correctly identify the fly species. Because of the high similarity among species of flesh flies, DNA-based identification is considered more favorable than morphology-based identification. In this study, we demonstrated the effectiveness of combined sequences (2216 to 2218 bp) of cytochrome c oxidase subunit I and II genes (COI and COII) for identification of the following 14 forensically important flesh fly species in Thailand: Boettcherisca nathani Lopes, Fengia ostindicae (Senior-White), Harpagophalla kempi (Senior-White), Liopygia ruficornis (Fabricius), Lioproctia pattoni (Senior-White), Lioproctia saprianovae (Pape & Bänziger), Parasarcophaga albiceps (Meigen), Parasarcophaga brevicornis (Ho), Parasarcophaga dux (Thomson), Parasarcophaga misera (Walker), Sarcorohdendorfia antilope (Böttcher), Sarcorohdendorfia inextricata (Walker), Sarcorohdendorfia seniorwhitei (Ho) and Seniorwhitea princeps (Wiedemann). Nucleotide variations of Thai flesh flies were evenly distributed throughout the COI-COII genes. Mean intra- and interspecific variations ranged from 0.00 to 0.96% and 5.22% to 12.31%, respectively. Using Best Match (BM) and Best Close Match (BCM) criteria, identification success for the combined genes was 100%, while the All Species Barcodes (ASB) criterion showed 76.74% success. Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Bayesian Inference (BI) phylogenetic analyses yielded similar tree topologies of monophyletic clades between species with very strong support values. The achieved sequences covering 14 forensically important flesh fly species including newly submitted sequences for B. nathani, F. ostindicae and S. seniorwhitei, can serve as a reliable reference database for further forensic entomological research in Thailand and in other areas where those species occur.

Vector distribution and transmission risk of the Zika virus in South and Central America.

BACKGROUND: Zika is of great medical relevance due to its rapid geographical spread in 2015 and 2016 in South America and its serious implications, for example, certain birth defects. Recent epidemics urgently require a better understanding of geographic patterns of the Zika virus transmission risk. This study aims to map the Zika virus transmission risk in South and Central America. We applied the maximum entropy approach, which is common for species distribution modelling, but is now also widely in use for estimating the geographical distribution of infectious diseases. METHODS: As predictor variables we used a set of variables considered to be potential drivers of both direct and indirect effects on the emergence of Zika. Specifically, we considered (a) the modelled habitat suitability for the two main vector species Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus as a proxy of vector species distributions; (b) temperature, as it has a great influence on virus transmission; (c) commonly called evidence consensus maps (ECM) of human Zika virus infections on a regional scale as a proxy for virus distribution; (d) ECM of human dengue virus infections and, (e) as possibly relevant socio-economic factors, population density and the gross domestic product. RESULTS: The highest values for the Zika transmission risk were modelled for the eastern coast of Brazil as well as in Central America, moderate values for the Amazon basin and low values for southern parts of South America. The following countries were modelled to be particularly affected: Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Puerto Rico and Venezuela. While modelled vector habitat suitability as predictor variable showed the highest contribution to the transmission risk model, temperature of the warmest quarter contributed only comparatively little. Areas with optimal temperature conditions for virus transmission overlapped only little with areas of suitable habitat conditions for the two main vector species. Instead, areas with the highest transmission risk were characterised as areas with temperatures below the optimum of the virus, but high habitat suitability modelled for the two main vector species. CONCLUSION: Modelling approaches can help estimating the spatial and temporal dynamics of a disease. We focused on the key drivers relevant in the Zika transmission cycle (vector, pathogen, and hosts) and integrated each single component into the model. Despite the uncertainties generally associated with modelling, the approach applied in this study can be used as a tool and assist decision making and managing the spread of Zika.

Improving species distribution models of zoonotic marine parasites.

Environmental niche modelling is an acclaimed method for estimating species' present or future distributions. However, in marine environments the assembly of representative data from reliable and unbiased occurrences is challenging. Here, we aimed to model the environmental niche and distribution of marine, parasitic nematodes from the Pseudoterranova decipiens complex using the software Maxent. The distribution of these potentially zoonotic species is of interest, because they infect the muscle tissue of host species targeted by fisheries. To achieve the best possible model, we used two different approaches. The land distance (LD) model was based on abiotic data, whereas the definitive host distance (DHD) model included species-specific biotic data. To assess whether DHD is a suitable descriptor for Pseudoterranova spp., the niches of the parasites and their respective definitive hosts were analysed using ecospat. The performance of LD and DHD was compared based on the variables' contribution to the model. The DHD-model clearly outperformed the LD-model. While the LD-model gave an estimate of the parasites' niches, it only showed the potential distribution. The DHD-model produced an estimate of the species' realised distribution and indicated that biotic variables can help to improve the modelling of data-poor, marine species.

Leishmaniasis in Eurasia and Africa: geographical distribution of vector species and pathogens.

Leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease with a broad global occurrence and an increasing number of recorded cases; however, it is still one of the world's most neglected diseases. We here provide climatic suitability maps generated by means of an ecological niche modelling approach for 32 Phlebotomus vector species with proven or suspected vector competence for five Leishmania pathogens occurring in Eurasia and Africa. A GIS-based spatial overlay analysis was then used to compare the distributional patterns of vectors and pathogens to help evaluate the vector species-pathogen relationship currently found in the literature. Based on this single factor of vector incrimination, that is, co-occurrence of both vector and pathogen, most of the pathogens occurred with at least one of the associated vector species. In the case of L. donovani, only a not yet confirmed vector species, P. rodhaini, could explain the occurrence of the pathogen in regions of Africa. Phlebotomus alexandri and P. longiductus on the other hand, proven vector species of L. donovani, do not seem to qualify as vectors for the pathogen. Their distribution is restricted to northern latitudes and does not match the pathogen's distribution, which lies in southern latitudes. Other more locally confined mismatches were discussed for each pathogen species. The comparative geographical GIS-overlay of vector species and pathogens functions as a first indication that testing and re-evaluation of some pathogen-vector relationships might be worthwhile to improve risk assessments of leishmaniasis.

Mesopredatory fishes from the subtropical upwelling region off NW-Africa characterised by their parasite fauna.

Eastern boundary upwelling provides the conditions for high marine productivity in the Canary Current System off NW-Africa. Despite its considerable importance to fisheries, knowledge on this marine ecosystem is only limited. Here, parasites were used as indicators to gain insight into the host ecology and food web of two pelagic fish species, the commercially important species Trichiurus lepturus Linnaeus, 1758, and Nealotus tripes Johnson, 1865. Fish specimens of T. lepturus (n = 104) and N. tripes (n = 91), sampled from the Canary Current System off the Senegalese coast and Cape Verde Islands, were examined, collecting data on their biometrics, diet and parasitisation. In this study, the first parasitological data on N. tripes are presented. T. lepturus mainly preyed on small pelagic Crustacea and the diet of N. tripes was dominated by small mesopelagic Teleostei. Both host species were infested by mostly generalist parasites. The parasite fauna of T. lepturus consisted of at least nine different species belonging to six taxonomic groups, with a less diverse fauna of ectoparasites and cestodes in comparison to studies in other coastal ecosystems (Brazil Current and Kuriosho Current). The zoonotic nematode Anisakis pegreffii occurred in 23% of the samples and could pose a risk regarding food safety. The parasite fauna of N. tripes was composed of at least thirteen species from seven different taxonomic groups. Its most common parasites were digenean ovigerous metacercariae, larval cestodes and a monogenean species (Diclidophoridae). The observed patterns of parasitisation in both host species indicate their trophic relationships and are typical for mesopredators from the subtropical epi- and mesopelagic. The parasite fauna, containing few dominant species with a high abundance, represents the typical species composition of an eastern boundary upwelling ecosystem.

Niche conservatism of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti - two mosquito species with different invasion histories.

Biological invasions have been associated with niche changes; however, their occurrence is still debated. We assess whether climatic niches between native and non-native ranges have changed during the invasion process using two globally spread mosquitoes as model species, Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti. Considering the different time spans since their invasions (>300 vs. 30-40 years), niche changes were expected to be more likely for Ae. aegypti than for Ae. albopictus. We used temperature and precipitation variables as descriptors for the realized climatic niches and different niche metrics to detect niche dynamics in the native and non-native ranges. High niche stability, therefore, no niche expansion but niche conservatism was revealed for both species. High niche unfilling for Ae. albopictus indicates a great potential for further expansion. Highest niche occupancies in non-native ranges occurred either under more temperate (North America, Europe) or tropical conditions (South America, Africa). Aedes aegypti has been able to fill its native climatic niche in the non-native ranges, with very low unfilling. Our results challenge the assumption of rapid evolutionary change of climatic niches as a requirement for global invasions but support the use of native range-based niche models to project future invasion risk on a large scale.

Lighten up the dark: metazoan parasites as indicators for the ecology of Antarctic crocodile icefish (Channichthyidae) from the north-west Antarctic Peninsula.

Due to its remote and isolated location, Antarctica is home to a unique diversity of species. The harsh conditions have shaped a primarily highly adapted endemic fauna. This includes the notothenioid family Channichthyidae. Their exceptional physiological adaptations have made this family of icefish the focus of many studies. However, studies on their ecology, especially on their parasite fauna, are comparatively rare. Parasites, directly linked to the food chain, can function as biological indicators and provide valuable information on host ecology (e.g., trophic interactions) even in remote habitats with limited accessibility, such as the Southern Ocean. In the present study, channichthyid fish (Champsocephalus gunnari: n = 25, Chaenodraco wilsoni: n = 33, Neopagetopsis ionah: n = 3, Pagetopsis macropterus: n = 4, Pseudochaenichthys georgianus: n = 15) were collected off South Shetland Island, Elephant Island, and the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula (CCAML statistical subarea 48.1). The parasite fauna consisted of 14 genera and 15 species, belonging to the six taxonomic groups including Digenea (four species), Nematoda (four), Cestoda (two), Acanthocephala (one), Hirudinea (three), and Copepoda (one). The stomach contents were less diverse with only Crustacea (Euphausiacea, Amphipoda) recovered from all examined fishes. Overall, 15 new parasite-host records could be established, and possibly a undescribed genotype or even species might exist among the nematodes.

Spatial and temporal patterns of human Puumala virus (PUUV) infections in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, the number of recorded human hantavirus infections as well as the number of affected countries is on the rise. In Europe, most human hantavirus infections are caused by the Puumala virus (PUUV), with bank voles (Myodes glareolus) as reservoir hosts. Generally, infection outbreaks have been related to environmental conditions, particularly climatic conditions, food supply for the reservoir species and land use. However, although attempts have been made, the insufficient availability of environmental data is often hampering accurate temporal and spatially explicit models of human hantavirus infections. METHODS: In the present study, dynamics of human PUUV infections between 2001 and 2015 were explored using ArcGIS in order to identify spatio-temporal patterns. RESULTS: Percentage cover of forest area was identified as an important factor for the spatial pattern, whereas beech mast was found explaining temporal patterns of human PUUV infections in Germany. High numbers of infections were recorded in 2007, 2010 and 2012 and areas with highest records were located in Baden-Wuerttemberg (southwest Germany) and North Rhine-Westphalia (western Germany). CONCLUSION: More reliable data on reservoir host distribution, pathogen verification as well as an increased awareness of physicians are some of the factors that should improve future human infection risk assessments in Germany.

Modeling the climatic suitability of leishmaniasis vector species in Europe.

Climate change will affect the geographical distribution of many species in the future. Phlebotomine sandflies are vector species for leishmaniasis, a tropical neglected disease. We applied an ensemble forecasting niche modeling approach to project future changes in climatic suitability for ten vector competent sandfly species in Europe. Whereas the main area of sandfly distribution currently lies in the Mediterranean region, models generally projected a northwards expansion of areas with suitable climatic conditions for most species (P. alexandri, P. neglectus, P. papatasi, P. perfiliewi, P. tobbi) in the future. The range of distribution for only two species (P. ariasi, P. mascittii) was projected to decline in the future. According to our results, a higher number of vector competent species in Central Europe can generally be expected, assuming no limitations to dispersal. We recommend monitoring for the establishment of vector species, especially in areas with projected climatic suitability for multiple vector species, as a precautious strategy. An increased number of vector species, or a higher abundance of a single species, might result in a higher transmission risk of leishmaniasis, provided that the pathogens follow the projected range shifts.