The association of cardiometabolic, diet and lifestyle parameters with plasma glucagon-like peptide-1: An IMI DIRECT study.

CONTEXT: The role of glucagon-like peptide-1(GLP-1) in Type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity is not fully understood. OBJECTIVE: We investigate the association of cardiometabolic, diet and lifestyle parameters on fasting and postprandial GLP-1 in people at risk of, or living with, T2D. METHOD: We analysed cross-sectional data from the two Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) Diabetes Research on Patient Stratification (DIRECT) cohorts, cohort 1(n=2127) individuals at risk of diabetes; cohort 2 (n=789) individuals with new-onset of T2D. RESULTS: Our multiple regression analysis reveals that fasting total GLP-1 is associated with an insulin resistant phenotype and observe a strong independent relationship with male sex, increased adiposity and liver fat particularly in the prediabetes population. In contrast, we showed that incremental GLP-1 decreases with worsening glycaemia, higher adiposity, liver fat, male sex and reduced insulin sensitivity in the prediabetes cohort. Higher fasting total GLP-1 was associated with a low intake of wholegrain, fruit and vegetables inpeople with prediabetes, and with a high intake of red meat and alcohol in people with diabetes. CONCLUSION: These studies provide novel insights into the association between fasting and incremental GLP-1, metabolic traits of diabetes and obesity, and dietary intake and raise intriguing questions regarding the relevance of fasting GLP-1 in the pathophysiology T2D.

Genetic analysis of blood molecular phenotypes reveals common properties in the regulatory networks affecting complex traits.

We evaluate the shared genetic regulation of mRNA molecules, proteins and metabolites derived from whole blood from 3029 human donors. We find abundant allelic heterogeneity, where multiple variants regulate a particular molecular phenotype, and pleiotropy, where a single variant associates with multiple molecular phenotypes over multiple genomic regions. The highest proportion of share genetic regulation is detected between gene expression and proteins (66.6%), with a further median shared genetic associations across 49 different tissues of 78.3% and 62.4% between plasma proteins and gene expression. We represent the genetic and molecular associations in networks including 2828 known GWAS variants, showing that GWAS variants are more often connected to gene expression in trans than other molecular phenotypes in the network. Our work provides a roadmap to understanding molecular networks and deriving the underlying mechanism of action of GWAS variants using different molecular phenotypes in an accessible tissue.

Altered blood gene expression in the obesity-related type 2 diabetes cluster may be causally involved in lipid metabolism: a Mendelian randomisation study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to identify differentially expressed long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) and mRNAs in whole blood of people with type 2 diabetes across five different clusters: severe insulin-deficient diabetes (SIDD), severe insulin-resistant diabetes (SIRD), mild obesity-related diabetes (MOD), mild diabetes (MD) and mild diabetes with high HDL-cholesterol (MDH). This was to increase our understanding of different molecular mechanisms underlying the five putative clusters of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Participants in the Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) cohort were clustered based on age, BMI, HbA1c, C-peptide and HDL-cholesterol. Whole blood RNA-seq was used to identify differentially expressed lncRNAs and mRNAs in a cluster compared with all others. Differentially expressed genes were validated in the Innovative Medicines Initiative DIabetes REsearCh on patient straTification (IMI DIRECT) study. Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) for differentially expressed RNAs were obtained from a publicly available dataset. To estimate the causal effects of RNAs on traits, a two-sample Mendelian randomisation analysis was performed using public genome-wide association study (GWAS) data. RESULTS: Eleven lncRNAs and 175 mRNAs were differentially expressed in the MOD cluster, the lncRNA AL354696.2 was upregulated in the SIDD cluster and GPR15 mRNA was downregulated in the MDH cluster. mRNAs and lncRNAs that were differentially expressed in the MOD cluster were correlated among each other. Six lncRNAs and 120 mRNAs validated in the IMI DIRECT study. Using two-sample Mendelian randomisation, we found 52 mRNAs to have a causal effect on anthropometric traits (n=23) and lipid metabolism traits (n=10). GPR146 showed a causal effect on plasma HDL-cholesterol levels (p = 2×10-15), without evidence for reverse causality. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Multiple lncRNAs and mRNAs were found to be differentially expressed among clusters and particularly in the MOD cluster. mRNAs in the MOD cluster showed a possible causal effect on anthropometric traits, lipid metabolism traits and blood cell fractions. Together, our results show that individuals in the MOD cluster show aberrant RNA expression of genes that have a suggested causal role on multiple diabetes-relevant traits.

Polygenic risk in Type III hyperlipidaemia and risk of cardiovascular disease: An epidemiological study in UK Biobank and Oxford Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Type III hyperlipidaemia (T3HL) is characterised by equimolar increases in plasma triglycerides (TG) and cholesterol in <10% of APOE22 carriers conveying high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We investigate the role of a weighted triglyceride-raising polygenic score (TG.PS) precipitating T3HL. METHODS: The TG.PS (restricted to genome-wide significance and weighted by published independent effect estimates) was applied to the Oxford Biobank (OBB, n = 6952) and the UK Biobank (UKB, n = 460,037), to analyse effects on plasma lipid phenotypes. Fasting plasma lipid, lipoprotein biochemistry and NMR lipoprotein profiles were analysed in OBB. CVD prevalence/incidence was examined in UKB. RESULTS: One TG.PS standard-deviation (SD) was associated with 13.0% (95% confidence-interval 12.0-14.0%) greater TG in OBB and 15.2% (15.0-15.4%) in UKB. APOE22 carriers had 19.0% (1.0-39.0%) greater TG in UKB. Males were more susceptible to TG.PS effects (4.0% (2.0-6.0%) greater TG with 1 TG.PS SD in OBB, 1.6% (1.3-1.9%) in UKB) than females. There was no interaction between APOE22 and TG.PS, BMI, sex or age on TG. APOE22 carriers had lower apolipoprotein B (apoB) (OBB; -0.35 (-0.29 to -0.40)g/L, UKB; -0.41 (-0.405 to -0.42)g/L). NMR lipoprotein lipid concentrations were discordant to conventional biochemistry in APOE22 carriers. In APOE22 compared with APOE33, CVD was no more prevalent in similarly hypertriglyceridaemic participants (OR 0.97 95%CI 0.76-1.25), but was less prevalent in normolipidaemia (OR 0.81, 95%CI 0.69-0.95); no differences were observed in CVD incidence. CONCLUSIONS: TG.PS confers an additive risk for developing T3HL, that is of comparable effect size to conventional risk factors. The protective effect of APOE22 for prevalent CVD is consistent with lower apoB in APOE22 carriers.

Profiles of Glucose Metabolism in Different Prediabetes Phenotypes, Classified by Fasting Glycemia, 2-Hour OGTT, Glycated Hemoglobin, and 1-Hour OGTT: An IMI DIRECT Study.

Differences in glucose metabolism among categories of prediabetes have not been systematically investigated. In this longitudinal study, participants (N = 2,111) underwent a 2-h 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at baseline and 48 months. HbA1c was also measured. We classified participants as having isolated prediabetes defect (impaired fasting glucose [IFG], impaired glucose tolerance [IGT], or HbA1c indicative of prediabetes [IA1c]), two defects (IFG+IGT, IFG+IA1c, or IGT+IA1c), or all defects (IFG+IGT+IA1c). ß-Cell function (BCF) and insulin sensitivity were assessed from OGTT. At baseline, in pooling of participants with isolated defects, they showed impairment in both BCF and insulin sensitivity compared with healthy control subjects. Pooled groups with two or three defects showed progressive further deterioration. Among groups with isolated defect, those with IGT showed lower insulin sensitivity, insulin secretion at reference glucose (ISRr), and insulin secretion potentiation (P < 0.002). Conversely, those with IA1c showed higher insulin sensitivity and ISRr (P < 0.0001). Among groups with two defects, we similarly found differences in both BCF and insulin sensitivity. At 48 months, we found higher type 2 diabetes incidence for progressively increasing number of prediabetes defects (odds ratio >2, P < 0.008). In conclusion, the prediabetes groups showed differences in type/degree of glucometabolic impairment. Compared with the pooled group with isolated defects, those with double or triple defect showed progressive differences in diabetes incidence.

Genome-Wide Association Analysis of Pancreatic Beta-Cell Glucose Sensitivity.

CONTEXT: Pancreatic beta-cell glucose sensitivity is the slope of the plasma glucose-insulin secretion relationship and is a key predictor of deteriorating glucose tolerance and development of type 2 diabetes. However, there are no large-scale studies looking at the genetic determinants of beta-cell glucose sensitivity. OBJECTIVE: To understand the genetic determinants of pancreatic beta-cell glucose sensitivity using genome-wide meta-analysis and candidate gene studies. DESIGN: We performed a genome-wide meta-analysis for beta-cell glucose sensitivity in subjects with type 2 diabetes and nondiabetic subjects from 6 independent cohorts (n = 5706). Beta-cell glucose sensitivity was calculated from mixed meal and oral glucose tolerance tests, and its associations between known glycemia-related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and genome-wide association study (GWAS) SNPs were estimated using linear regression models. RESULTS: Beta-cell glucose sensitivity was moderately heritable (h2 ranged from 34% to 55%) using SNP and family-based analyses. GWAS meta-analysis identified multiple correlated SNPs in the CDKAL1 gene and GIPR-QPCTL gene loci that reached genome-wide significance, with SNP rs2238691 in GIPR-QPCTL (P value = 2.64 × 10-9) and rs9368219 in the CDKAL1 (P value = 3.15 × 10-9) showing the strongest association with beta-cell glucose sensitivity. These loci surpassed genome-wide significance when the GWAS meta-analysis was repeated after exclusion of the diabetic subjects. After correction for multiple testing, glycemia-associated SNPs in or near the HHEX and IGF2B2 loci were also associated with beta-cell glucose sensitivity. CONCLUSION: We show that, variation at the GIPR-QPCTL and CDKAL1 loci are key determinants of pancreatic beta-cell glucose sensitivity.

Processes Underlying Glycemic Deterioration in Type 2 Diabetes: An IMI DIRECT Study.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated the processes underlying glycemic deterioration in type 2 diabetes (T2D). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 732 recently diagnosed patients with T2D from the Innovative Medicines Initiative Diabetes Research on Patient Stratification (IMI DIRECT) study were extensively phenotyped over 3 years, including measures of insulin sensitivity (OGIS), ß-cell glucose sensitivity (GS), and insulin clearance (CLIm) from mixed meal tests, liver enzymes, lipid profiles, and baseline regional fat from MRI. The associations between the longitudinal metabolic patterns and HbA1c deterioration, adjusted for changes in BMI and in diabetes medications, were assessed via stepwise multivariable linear and logistic regression. RESULTS: Faster HbA1c progression was independently associated with faster deterioration of OGIS and GS and increasing CLIm; visceral or liver fat, HDL-cholesterol, and triglycerides had further independent, though weaker, roles (R 2 = 0.38). A subgroup of patients with a markedly higher progression rate (fast progressors) was clearly distinguishable considering these variables only (discrimination capacity from area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.94). The proportion of fast progressors was reduced from 56% to 8-10% in subgroups in which only one trait among OGIS, GS, and CLIm was relatively stable (odds ratios 0.07-0.09). T2D polygenic risk score and baseline pancreatic fat, glucagon-like peptide 1, glucagon, diet, and physical activity did not show an independent role. CONCLUSIONS: Deteriorating insulin sensitivity and ß-cell function, increasing insulin clearance, high visceral or liver fat, and worsening of the lipid profile are the crucial factors mediating glycemic deterioration of patients with T2D in the initial phase of the disease. Stabilization of a single trait among insulin sensitivity, ß-cell function, and insulin clearance may be relevant to prevent progression.

Correction to: The role of physical activity in metabolic homeostasis before and after the onset of type 2 diabetes: an IMI DIRECT study.

Unfortunately, 'Present address' was omitted from one of the addresses provided for Mark I. McCarthy (#26).

Post-load glucose subgroups and associated metabolic traits in individuals with type 2 diabetes: An IMI-DIRECT study.

AIM: Subclasses of different glycaemic disturbances could explain the variation in characteristics of individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We aimed to examine the association between subgroups based on their glucose curves during a five-point mixed-meal tolerance test (MMT) and metabolic traits at baseline and glycaemic deterioration in individuals with T2D. METHODS: The study included 787 individuals with newly diagnosed T2D from the Diabetes Research on Patient Stratification (IMI-DIRECT) Study. Latent class trajectory analysis (LCTA) was used to identify distinct glucose curve subgroups during a five-point MMT. Using general linear models, these subgroups were associated with metabolic traits at baseline and after 18 months of follow up, adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: At baseline, we identified three glucose curve subgroups, labelled in order of increasing glucose peak levels as subgroup 1-3. Individuals in subgroup 2 and 3 were more likely to have higher levels of HbA1c, triglycerides and BMI at baseline, compared to those in subgroup 1. At 18 months (n = 651), the beta coefficients (95% CI) for change in HbA1c (mmol/mol) increased across subgroups with 0.37 (-0.18-1.92) for subgroup 2 and 1.88 (-0.08-3.85) for subgroup 3, relative to subgroup 1. The same trend was observed for change in levels of triglycerides and fasting glucose. CONCLUSIONS: Different glycaemic profiles with different metabolic traits and different degrees of subsequent glycaemic deterioration can be identified using data from a frequently sampled mixed-meal tolerance test in individuals with T2D. Subgroups with the highest peaks had greater metabolic risk.

Dietary metabolite profiling brings new insight into the relationship between nutrition and metabolic risk: An IMI DIRECT study.

BACKGROUND: Dietary advice remains the cornerstone of prevention and management of type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, understanding the efficacy of dietary interventions is confounded by the challenges inherent in assessing free living diet. Here we profiled dietary metabolites to investigate glycaemic deterioration and cardiometabolic risk in people at risk of or living with T2D. METHODS: We analysed data from plasma collected at baseline and 18-month follow-up in individuals from the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) Diabetes Research on Patient Stratification (DIRECT) cohort 1 n = 403 individuals with normal or impaired glucose regulation (prediabetic) and cohort 2 n = 458 individuals with new onset of T2D. A dietary metabolite profile model (Tpred) was constructed using multivariable regression of 113 plasma metabolites obtained from targeted metabolomics assays. The continuous Tpred score was used to explore the relationships between diet, glycaemic deterioration and cardio-metabolic risk via multiple linear regression models. FINDINGS: A higher Tpred score was associated with healthier diets high in wholegrain (ß=3.36 g, 95% CI 0.31, 6.40 and ß=2.82 g, 95% CI 0.06, 5.57) and lower energy intake (ß=-75.53 kcal, 95% CI -144.71, -2.35 and ß=-122.51 kcal, 95% CI -186.56, -38.46), and saturated fat (ß=-0.92 g, 95% CI -1.56, -0.28 and ß=-0.98 g, 95% CI -1.53, -0.42 g), respectively for cohort 1 and 2. In both cohorts a higher Tpred score was also associated with lower total body adiposity and favourable lipid profiles HDL-cholesterol (ß=0.07 mmol/L, 95% CI 0.03, 0.1), (ß=0.08 mmol/L, 95% CI 0.04, 0.1), and triglycerides (ß=-0.1 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.2, -0.03), (ß=-0.2 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.3, -0.09), respectively for cohort 1 and 2. In cohort 2, the Tpred score was negatively associated with liver fat (ß=-0.74%, 95% CI -0.67, -0.81), and lower fasting concentrations of HbA1c (ß=-0.9 mmol/mol, 95% CI -1.5, -0.1), glucose (ß=-0.2 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.4, -0.05) and insulin (ß=-11.0 pmol/mol, 95% CI -19.5, -2.6). Longitudinal analysis showed at 18-month follow up a higher Tpred score was also associated lower total body adiposity in both cohorts and lower fasting glucose (ß=-0.2 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.3, -0.01) and insulin (ß=-9.2 pmol/mol, 95% CI -17.9, -0.4) concentrations in cohort 2. INTERPRETATION: Plasma dietary metabolite profiling provides objective measures of diet intake, showing a relationship to glycaemic deterioration and cardiometabolic health. FUNDING: This work was supported by the Innovative Medicines Initiative Joint Undertaking under grant agreement no. 115,317 (DIRECT), resources of which are composed of financial contribution from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) and EFPIA companies.

Predicting and elucidating the etiology of fatty liver disease: A machine learning modeling and validation study in the IMI DIRECT cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is highly prevalent and causes serious health complications in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes (T2D). Early diagnosis of NAFLD is important, as this can help prevent irreversible damage to the liver and, ultimately, hepatocellular carcinomas. We sought to expand etiological understanding and develop a diagnostic tool for NAFLD using machine learning. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We utilized the baseline data from IMI DIRECT, a multicenter prospective cohort study of 3,029 European-ancestry adults recently diagnosed with T2D (n = 795) or at high risk of developing the disease (n = 2,234). Multi-omics (genetic, transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic) and clinical (liver enzymes and other serological biomarkers, anthropometry, measures of beta-cell function, insulin sensitivity, and lifestyle) data comprised the key input variables. The models were trained on MRI-image-derived liver fat content (<5% or ≥5%) available for 1,514 participants. We applied LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) to select features from the different layers of omics data and random forest analysis to develop the models. The prediction models included clinical and omics variables separately or in combination. A model including all omics and clinical variables yielded a cross-validated receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROCAUC) of 0.84 (95% CI 0.82, 0.86; p < 0.001), which compared with a ROCAUC of 0.82 (95% CI 0.81, 0.83; p < 0.001) for a model including 9 clinically accessible variables. The IMI DIRECT prediction models outperformed existing noninvasive NAFLD prediction tools. One limitation is that these analyses were performed in adults of European ancestry residing in northern Europe, and it is unknown how well these findings will translate to people of other ancestries and exposed to environmental risk factors that differ from those of the present cohort. Another key limitation of this study is that the prediction was done on a binary outcome of liver fat quantity (<5% or ≥5%) rather than a continuous one. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we developed several models with different combinations of clinical and omics data and identified biological features that appear to be associated with liver fat accumulation. In general, the clinical variables showed better prediction ability than the complex omics variables. However, the combination of omics and clinical variables yielded the highest accuracy. We have incorporated the developed clinical models into a web interface (see: https://www.predictliverfat.org/) and made it available to the community. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03814915.

The role of physical activity in metabolic homeostasis before and after the onset of type 2 diabetes: an IMI DIRECT study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: It is well established that physical activity, abdominal ectopic fat and glycaemic regulation are related but the underlying structure of these relationships is unclear. The previously proposed twin-cycle hypothesis (TC) provides a mechanistic basis for impairment in glycaemic control through the interactions of substrate availability, substrate metabolism and abdominal ectopic fat accumulation. Here, we hypothesise that the effect of physical activity in glucose regulation is mediated by the twin-cycle. We aimed to examine this notion in the Innovative Medicines Initiative Diabetes Research on Patient Stratification (IMI DIRECT) Consortium cohorts comprised of participants with normal or impaired glucose regulation (cohort 1: N ≤ 920) or with recently diagnosed type 2 diabetes (cohort 2: N ≤ 435). METHODS: We defined a structural equation model that describes the TC and fitted this within the IMI DIRECT dataset. A second model, twin-cycle plus physical activity (TC-PA), to assess the extent to which the effects of physical activity in glycaemic regulation are mediated by components in the twin-cycle, was also fitted. Beta cell function, insulin sensitivity and glycaemic control were modelled from frequently sampled 75 g OGTTs (fsOGTTs) and mixed-meal tolerance tests (MMTTs) in participants without and with diabetes, respectively. Abdominal fat distribution was assessed using MRI, and physical activity through wrist-worn triaxial accelerometry. Results are presented as standardised beta coefficients, SE and p values, respectively. RESULTS: The TC and TC-PA models showed better fit than null models (TC: χ2 = 242, p = 0.004 and χ2 = 63, p = 0.001 in cohort 1 and 2, respectively; TC-PA: χ2 = 180, p = 0.041 and χ2 = 60, p = 0.008 in cohort 1 and 2, respectively). The association of physical activity with glycaemic control was primarily mediated by variables in the liver fat cycle. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: These analyses partially support the mechanisms proposed in the twin-cycle model and highlight mechanistic pathways through which insulin sensitivity and liver fat mediate the association between physical activity and glycaemic control.

Discovery of biomarkers for glycaemic deterioration before and after the onset of type 2 diabetes: descriptive characteristics of the epidemiological studies within the IMI DIRECT Consortium.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Here, we describe the characteristics of the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) Diabetes Research on Patient Stratification (DIRECT) epidemiological cohorts at baseline and follow-up examinations (18, 36 and 48 months of follow-up). METHODS: From a sampling frame of 24,682 adults of European ancestry enrolled in population-based cohorts across Europe, participants at varying risk of glycaemic deterioration were identified using a risk prediction algorithm (based on age, BMI, waist circumference, use of antihypertensive medication, smoking status and parental history of type 2 diabetes) and enrolled into a prospective cohort study (n = 2127) (cohort 1, prediabetes risk). We also recruited people from clinical registries with type 2 diabetes diagnosed 6-24 months previously (n = 789) into a second cohort study (cohort 2, diabetes). Follow-up examinations took place at ~18 months (both cohorts) and at ~48 months (cohort 1) or ~36 months (cohort 2) after baseline examinations. The cohorts were studied in parallel using matched protocols across seven clinical centres in northern Europe. RESULTS: Using ADA 2011 glycaemic categories, 33% (n = 693) of cohort 1 (prediabetes risk) had normal glucose regulation and 67% (n = 1419) had impaired glucose regulation. Seventy-six per cent of participants in cohort 1 was male. Cohort 1 participants had the following characteristics (mean ± SD) at baseline: age 62 (6.2) years; BMI 27.9 (4.0) kg/m2; fasting glucose 5.7 (0.6) mmol/l; 2 h glucose 5.9 (1.6) mmol/l. At the final follow-up examination the participants' clinical characteristics were as follows: fasting glucose 6.0 (0.6) mmol/l; 2 h OGTT glucose 6.5 (2.0) mmol/l. In cohort 2 (diabetes), 66% (n = 517) were treated by lifestyle modification and 34% (n = 272) were treated with metformin plus lifestyle modification at enrolment. Fifty-eight per cent of participants in cohort 2 was male. Cohort 2 participants had the following characteristics at baseline: age 62 (8.1) years; BMI 30.5 (5.0) kg/m2; fasting glucose 7.2 (1.4) mmol/l; 2 h glucose 8.6 (2.8) mmol/l. At the final follow-up examination, the participants' clinical characteristics were as follows: fasting glucose 7.9 (2.0) mmol/l; 2 h mixed-meal tolerance test glucose 9.9 (3.4) mmol/l. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The IMI DIRECT cohorts are intensely characterised, with a wide-variety of metabolically relevant measures assessed prospectively. We anticipate that the cohorts, made available through managed access, will provide a powerful resource for biomarker discovery, multivariate aetiological analyses and reclassification of patients for the prevention and treatment of type 2 diabetes.

Physical Activity in a Randomized Culturally Adapted Lifestyle Intervention.

INTRODUCTION: Middle Eastern immigrants exhibit high levels of physical inactivity and are at an increased risk for Type 2 diabetes. The primary aim of this study was to examine the changes in objectively assessed physical activity levels following a culturally adapted lifestyle intervention program. The secondary aim was to examine the association between objectively assessed physical activity and insulin sensitivity. STUDY DESIGN: RCT conducted over 4 months in 2015. PARTICIPANTS: Iraqi immigrants residing in Malmö, Sweden, exhibiting one or more risk factors for Type 2 diabetes. INTERVENTION: The intervention group (n=50) was offered a culturally adapted lifestyle intervention comprising seven group sessions including a cooking class. The control group (n=46) received usual care. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Raw accelerometry data were processed by validated procedures and daily mean physical activity intensity, vector magnitude high-pass filtered (VM-HPF), was inferred. Further inferences into the number of hours/day spent in sedentary (VM-HPF <48 milli-Gs [mGs] where G=9.8 m/sec2) and light- (48- <163 mGs); moderate- (163- <420 mGs); and vigorous-intensity (≥420 mGs) activities were also calculated (year of analysis was 2016-2017). RESULTS: No difference was observed between the two groups in terms of change over time in VM-HPF. There was a significant increase in the number of hours/day spent in light intensity physical activity in the intervention group compared with the control group (ß=0.023, 95% CI=0.001, 0.045, p=0.037). The intervention group also increased the time spent in sedentary activities, with the highest VM-HPF (36- <48 mGs) within the sedentary behavior (B=0.022, 95% CI=0.002, 0.042, p=0.03). Higher VM-HPF was significantly associated with a higher insulin sensitivity index (ß=0.014, 95% CI=0.0004, 0.025, p=0.007). CONCLUSIONS: The findings favor the culturally adapted intervention approach for addressing low physical activity levels among Middle Eastern immigrants. Replacing sedentary time with light-intensity activities could be an achievable goal and will have potential beneficial effects for diabetes prevention among this sedentary group of immigrants. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov NCT01420198.

Bicycling to Work and Primordial Prevention of Cardiovascular Risk: A Cohort Study Among Swedish Men and Women.

BACKGROUND: Bicycling to work may be a viable approach for achieving physical activity that provides cardiovascular health benefits. In this study we investigated the relationship of bicycling to work with incidence of obesity, hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia, and impaired glucose tolerance across a decade of follow-up in middle-aged men and women. METHODS AND RESULTS: We followed 23 732 Swedish men and women with a mean age of 43.5 years at baseline who attended a health examination twice during a 10-year period (1990-2011). In multivariable adjusted models we calculated the odds of incident obesity, hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia, and impaired glucose tolerance, comparing individuals who commuted to work by bicycle with those who used passive modes of transportation. We also examined the relationship of change in commuting mode with incidence of these clinical risk factors. Cycling to work at baseline was associated with lower odds of incident obesity (odds ratio [OR]=0.85, 95% CI 0.73-0.99), hypertension (OR=0.87, 95% CI 0.79-0.95), hypertriglyceridemia (OR=0.85, 95% CI 0.76-0.94), and impaired glucose tolerance (OR=0.88, 95% CI 0.80-0.96) compared with passive travel after adjusting for putative confounding factors. Participants who maintained or began bicycling to work during follow-up had lower odds of obesity (OR=0.61, 95% CI 0.50-0.73), hypertension (OR=0.89, 95% CI 0.80-0.98), hypertriglyceridemia (OR=0.80, 95% CI 0.70-0.90), and impaired glucose tolerance (OR=0.82, 95% CI 0.74-0.91) compared with participants not cycling to work at both times points or who switched from cycling to other modes of transport during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that commuting by bicycle to work is an important strategy for primordial prevention of clinical cardiovascular risk factors among middle-aged men and women.

Innate biology versus lifestyle behaviour in the aetiology of obesity and type 2 diabetes: the GLACIER Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We compared the ability of genetic (established type 2 diabetes, fasting glucose, 2 h glucose and obesity variants) and modifiable lifestyle (diet, physical activity, smoking, alcohol and education) risk factors to predict incident type 2 diabetes and obesity in a population-based prospective cohort of 3,444 Swedish adults studied sequentially at baseline and 10 years later. METHODS: Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to assess the predictive ability of genetic and lifestyle risk factors on incident obesity and type 2 diabetes by calculating the AUC. RESULTS: The predictive accuracy of lifestyle risk factors was similar to that yielded by genetic information for incident type 2 diabetes (AUC 75% and 74%, respectively) and obesity (AUC 68% and 73%, respectively) in models adjusted for age, age(2) and sex. The addition of genetic information to the lifestyle model significantly improved the prediction of type 2 diabetes (AUC 80%; p = 0.0003) and obesity (AUC 79%; p < 0.0001) and resulted in a net reclassification improvement of 58% for type 2 diabetes and 64% for obesity. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: These findings illustrate that lifestyle and genetic information separately provide a similarly high degree of long-range predictive accuracy for obesity and type 2 diabetes.

Trans-ancestry genome-wide association study identifies 12 genetic loci influencing blood pressure and implicates a role for DNA methylation.

We carried out a trans-ancestry genome-wide association and replication study of blood pressure phenotypes among up to 320,251 individuals of East Asian, European and South Asian ancestry. We find genetic variants at 12 new loci to be associated with blood pressure (P = 3.9 × 10(-11) to 5.0 × 10(-21)). The sentinel blood pressure SNPs are enriched for association with DNA methylation at multiple nearby CpG sites, suggesting that, at some of the loci identified, DNA methylation may lie on the regulatory pathway linking sequence variation to blood pressure. The sentinel SNPs at the 12 new loci point to genes involved in vascular smooth muscle (IGFBP3, KCNK3, PDE3A and PRDM6) and renal (ARHGAP24, OSR1, SLC22A7 and TBX2) function. The new and known genetic variants predict increased left ventricular mass, circulating levels of NT-proBNP, and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality (P = 0.04 to 8.6 × 10(-6)). Our results provide new evidence for the role of DNA methylation in blood pressure regulation.

Season-dependent associations of circadian rhythm-regulating loci (CRY1, CRY2 and MTNR1B) and glucose homeostasis: the GLACIER Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The association of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) proximal to CRY2 and MTNR1B with fasting glucose is well established. CRY1/2 and MTNR1B encode proteins that regulate circadian rhythmicity and influence energy metabolism. Here we tested whether season modified the relationship of these loci with blood glucose concentration. METHODS: SNPs rs8192440 (CRY1), rs11605924 (CRY2) and rs10830963 (MTNR1B) were genotyped in a prospective cohort study from northern Sweden (n = 16,499). The number of hours of daylight exposure during the year ranged from 4.5 to 22 h daily. Owing to the non-linear distribution of daylight throughout the year, season was dichotomised based on the vernal and autumnal equinoxes. Effect modification was assessed using linear regression models fitted with a SNP × season interaction term, marginal effect terms and putative confounding variables, with fasting or 2 h glucose concentrations as outcomes. RESULTS: The rs8192440 (CRY1) variant was only associated with fasting glucose among participants (n = 2,318) examined during the light season (ß = -0.04 mmol/l per A allele, 95% CI -0.08, -0.01, p = 0.02, p interaction = 0.01). In addition to the established association with fasting glucose, the rs11605924 (CRY2) and rs10830963 (MTNR1B) loci were associated with 2 h glucose concentrations (ß = 0.07 mmol/l per A allele, 95% CI 0.03, 0.12, p = 0.0008, n = 9,605, and ß = -0.11 mmol/l per G allele, 95% CI -0.15, -0.06, p < 0.0001, n = 9,517, respectively), but only in participants examined during the dark season (p interaction = 0.006 and 0.04, respectively). Repeated measures analyses including data collected 10 years after baseline (n = 3,500) confirmed the results for the CRY1 locus (p interaction = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In summary, these observations suggest a biologically plausible season-dependent association between SNPs at CRY1, CRY2 and MTNR1B and glucose homeostasis.

Genetic determinants of long-term changes in blood lipid concentrations: 10-year follow-up of the GLACIER study.

Recent genome-wide meta-analyses identified 157 loci associated with cross-sectional lipid traits. Here we tested whether these loci associate (singly and in trait-specific genetic risk scores [GRS]) with longitudinal changes in total cholesterol (TC) and triglyceride (TG) levels in a population-based prospective cohort from Northern Sweden (the GLACIER Study). We sought replication in a southern Swedish cohort (the MDC Study; N = 2,943). GLACIER Study participants (N = 6,064) were genotyped with the MetaboChip array. Up to 3,495 participants had 10-yr follow-up data available in the GLACIER Study. The TC- and TG-specific GRSs were strongly associated with change in lipid levels (ß = 0.02 mmol/l per effect allele per decade follow-up, P = 2.0 × 10(-11) for TC; ß = 0.02 mmol/l per effect allele per decade follow-up, P = 5.0 × 10(-5) for TG). In individual SNP analysis, one TC locus, apolipoprotein E (APOE) rs4420638 (ß = 0.12 mmol/l per effect allele per decade follow-up, P = 2.0 × 10(-5)), and two TG loci, tribbles pseudokinase 1 (TRIB1) rs2954029 (ß = 0.09 mmol/l per effect allele per decade follow-up, P = 5.1 × 10(-4)) and apolipoprotein A-I (APOA1) rs6589564 (ß = 0.31 mmol/l per effect allele per decade follow-up, P = 1.4 × 10(-8)), remained significantly associated with longitudinal changes for the respective traits after correction for multiple testing. An additional 12 loci were nominally associated with TC or TG changes. In replication analyses, the APOE rs4420638, TRIB1 rs2954029, and APOA1 rs6589564 associations were confirmed (P ≤ 0.001). In summary, trait-specific GRSs are robustly associated with 10-yr changes in lipid levels and three individual SNPs were strongly associated with 10-yr changes in lipid levels.

Discovery of biomarkers for glycaemic deterioration before and after the onset of type 2 diabetes: rationale and design of the epidemiological studies within the IMI DIRECT Consortium.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The DIRECT (Diabetes Research on Patient Stratification) Study is part of a European Union Framework 7 Innovative Medicines Initiative project, a joint undertaking between four industry and 21 academic partners throughout Europe. The Consortium aims to discover and validate biomarkers that: (1) predict the rate of glycaemic deterioration before and after type 2 diabetes onset; (2) predict the response to diabetes therapies; and (3) help stratify type 2 diabetes into clearly definable disease subclasses that can be treated more effectively than without stratification. This paper describes two new prospective cohort studies conducted as part of DIRECT. METHODS: Prediabetic participants (target sample size 2,200-2,700) and patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes (target sample size ~1,000) are undergoing detailed metabolic phenotyping at baseline and 18 months and 36 months later. Abdominal, pancreatic and liver fat is assessed using MRI. Insulin secretion and action are assessed using frequently sampled OGTTs in non-diabetic participants, and frequently sampled mixed-meal tolerance tests in patients with type 2 diabetes. Biosamples include venous blood, faeces, urine and nail clippings, which, among other biochemical analyses, will be characterised at genetic, transcriptomic, metabolomic, proteomic and metagenomic levels. Lifestyle is assessed using high-resolution triaxial accelerometry, 24 h diet record, and food habit questionnaires. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: DIRECT will yield an unprecedented array of biomaterials and data. This resource, available through managed access to scientists within and outside the Consortium, will facilitate the development of new treatments and therapeutic strategies for the prevention and management of type 2 diabetes.