Future distribution of the epiphytic leafless orchid (Dendrophylax lindenii), its pollinators and phorophytes evaluated using niche modelling and three different climate change projections.

The identification of future refugia for endangered species from the effects of global warming is crucial for improving their conservation. Because climate-driven shifts in ranges and local extinctions can result in a spatial mismatch with their symbiotic organisms, however, it is important to incorporate in niche modelling the ecological partners of the species studied. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate change on the distribution of suitable niches for the ghost orchid (Dendrophylax lindenii) and its phorophytes and pollinators. Thus, its five species of host trees and three pollen vectors were included in the analysis. Climatic preferences of all the species studied were evaluated. The modelling was based on three different climate change projections and four Shared Socio-economic Pathway trajectories. All the species analysed are characterized by narrow temperature tolerances, which with global warming are likely to result in local extinctions and range shifts. D. lindenii is likely to be subjected to a significant loss of suitable niches, but within a reduced geographical range, both host trees and pollen vectors will be available in the future. Future conservation of this orchid should focus on areas that are likely be suitable for it and its ecological partners.

Effect of global warming on the potential distribution of a holoparasitic plant (Phelypaea tournefortii): both climate and host distribution matter.

Phelypaea tournefortii (Orobanchaceae) primarily occurs in the Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and N Iran) and Turkey. This perennial, holoparasitic herb is achlorophyllous and possesses one of the most intense red flowers among all plants worldwide. It occurs as a parasite on the roots of several Tanacetum (Asteraceae) species and prefers steppe and semi-arid habitats. Climate change may affect holoparasites both directly through effects on their physiology and indirectly as a consequence of its effects on their host plants and habitats. In this study, we used the ecological niche modeling approach to estimate the possible effects of climate change on P. tournefortii and to evaluate the effect of its parasitic relationships with two preferred host species on the chances of survival of this species under global warming. We used four climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) and three different simulations (CNRM, GISS-E2, INM). We modeled the species' current and future distribution using the maximum entropy method implemented in MaxEnt using seven bioclimatic variables and species occurrence records (Phelypaea tournefortii - 63 records, Tanacetum argyrophyllum - 40, Tanacetum chiliophyllum - 21). According to our analyses, P. tournefortii will likely contract its geographical range remarkably. In response to global warming, the coverage of the species' suitable niches will decrease by at least 34%, especially in central and southern Armenia, Nakhchivan in Azerbaijan, northern Iran, and NE Turkey. In the worst-case scenario, the species will go completely extinct. Additionally, the studied plant's hosts will lose at least 36% of currently suitable niches boosting the range contraction of P. tournefortii. The GISS-E2 scenario will be least damaging, while the CNRM will be most damaging to climate change for studied species. Our study shows the importance of including ecological data in niche models to obtain more reliable predictions of the future distribution of parasitic plants.

Loss of fungal symbionts and changes in pollinator availability caused by climate change will affect the distribution and survival chances of myco-heterotrophic orchid species.

The first comprehensive species distribution models for orchid, its fungal symbionts and pollinator are presented. To evaluate impact of global warming on these organisms three different projections and four various climate change scenarios were analysed. The niche modelling was based on presence-only records of Limodorum abortivum, two species of Russula and three insects pollinating orchid (Anthophora affinis, Bombus terrestris, Rhodanthidium septemdentatum). Two sets of orchid predictions were examined-the first one included only climatic data and the second one was based on climate data and data on future distribution of orchid fungal symbionts. Overall, a poleward range shift is predicted to occur as a result of climate change and apparently global warming will be favorable for L. abortivum and its potential geographical range will expand. However, due to the negative effect of global warming on fungal symbionts of L. abortivum, the actual extension of the suitable niches of the orchid will be much limited. Considering future possibility of cross-pollination, the availability of A. affinis for L. abortivum will decrease and this bee will be available in the worst case scenarios only for 21% of orchid populations. On the other hand, the overlap of orchid and the buff-tailed bumblebee will increase and as much as 86.5% of plant populations will be located within B. terrestris potential range. Also the availability of R. septemdentatum will be higher than currently observed in almost all analysed climate change projections. This study showed the importance of inclusion of ecological factors in species distribution models as the climate data itself are not enough to estimate the future distribution of plant species. Moreover, the availability of pollen vectors which is crucial for long-term survival of orchid populations should be analysed in context of climate changes.

The effect of global warming on the Australian endemic orchid Cryptostylis leptochila and its pollinator.

Ecological stability together with the suitability of abiotic conditions are crucial for long-term survival of any organism and the maintenance of biodiversity and self-sustainable ecosystems relies on species interactions. By influencing resource availability plants affect the composition of plant communities and ultimately ecosystem functioning. Plant-animal interactions are very complex and include a variety of exploitative and mutualistic relationships. One of the most important mutualistic interactions is that between plants and their pollinators. Coevolution generates clustered links between plants and their pollen vectors, but the pollination and reproductive success of plants is reduced by increase in the specialization of plant-animal interactions. One of the most specialized types of pollination is sexual deception, which occurs almost exclusively in Orchidaceae. In this form of mimicry, male insects are attracted to orchid flowers by chemical compounds that resemble insect female sex pheromones and pollinate the flowers during attempted copulations. These interactions are often species-specific with each species of orchid attracting only males of one or very few closely related species of insects. For sexually deceptive orchids the presence of a particular pollen vector is crucial for reproductive success and any reduction in pollinator availability constitutes a threat to the orchid. Because global warming is rapidly becoming the greatest threat to all organisms by re-shaping the geographical ranges of plants, animals and fungi, this paper focuses on predicting the effect of global warming on Cryptostylis leptochila, a terrestrial endemic in eastern Australia that is pollinated exclusively via pseudo copulation with Lissopimpla excelsa. As a species with a single pollinator this orchid is a perfect model for studies on the effect of global warming on plants and their pollen vectors. According to our predictions, global warming will cause a significant loss of suitable niches for C. leptochila. The potential range of this orchid will be 36%-75% smaller than currently and as a result the Eastern Highlands will become unsuitable for C. leptochila. On the other hand, some new niches will become available for this species in Tasmania. Simultaneously, climate change will result in a substantial expansion of niches suitable for the pollinator (44-82%). Currently ca. 71% of the geographical range of the orchid is also suitable for L. excelsa, therefore, almost 30% of the areas occupied by C. leptochila already lack the pollen vector. The predicted availability of the pollen vector increased under three of the climate change scenarios analysed. The predicted habitat loss is a serious threat to this orchid even with the potential colonization of Tasmania by this plant. In the reduced range of C. leptochila the pollen vector will also be present assuring fruit set in populations of this orchid. The genetic pool of the populations in New South Wales and Queensland will probably be lost.

Niche conservatism and evolution of climatic tolerance in the Neotropical orchid genera Sobralia and Brasolia (Orchidaceae).

Sobralia and Brasolia form a large complex of Neotropical Orchidaceae. Although the molecular and morphological studies allowed to increase the rate of work on the modern classification of the taxa, they still require the attention as remaining without complete revision. The niche similarity analysis between representatives of Sobralia and recently segregated from this taxon-genus Brasolia is presented. The ecological tolerance evolution within the group was investigated with molecular clock analysis and phylogeny as the background. The phylogenetic analysis has confirmed the previous results and placed Brasolia representatives in a single clade with Elleanthus and Sobralia core as a separated group. The molecular clock analysis suggests that Sobralia and Brasolia are relatively young groups that evolved between 8.5 and 8 million years ago. Distribution of suitable niches of studied species is generally congruent with the known geographical ranges of particular taxa. The calculated niche overlap did not indicate any correlation between niche overlap and species phylogenetic relationships and remains low for both intra- and intergeneric relationships. The reconstruction of climatic tolerance evolution indicated that the studied species of Brasolia and Sobralia are characterized by generally similar ecological tolerance for most of the analyzed variables.

Contradictory effect of climate change on American and European populations of Impatiens capensis Meerb. - is this herb a global threat?

AIMS: The present study is the first-ever attempt to generate information on the potential present and future distribution of Impatiens capensis (orange balsam) under various climate change scenarios. Moreover, the differences in bioclimatic preferences of native and non-native populations were evaluated. LOCATION: Global. TAXON: Angiosperms. METHODS: A database of I. capensis localities was compiled based on the public database - the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), herbarium specimens, and a field survey in Poland. The initial dataset was verified, and each record was assigned to one of two groups - native (3664 records from North America) or non-native (750 records from Europe and the western part of North America). The analyses involved bioclimatic variables in 2.5 arc-minutes of interpolated climate surface downloaded from WorldClim v. 2.1. MaxEnt version 3.3.2 was used to conduct the ecological niche modeling based on presence-only observations of I. capensis. Forecasts of the future distribution of the climatic niches of the studied species in 2080-2100 were made based on climate projections developed by the CNRM/CERFACS modeling and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC-6). MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Distribution models created for "present time" showed slightly broader potential geographical ranges of both native and invasive populations of orange balsam. On the other hand, some areas (e.g. NW Poland, SW Finland), settled by the species, are far outside the modeled climate niche, which indicates a much greater adaptation potential of I. capensis. In addition, the models have shown that climate change will shift the native range of orange balsam to the north and the range of its European populations to the northwest. Moreover, while the coverage of niches suitable for I. capensis in America will extend due to climate change, the European populations will face 31-95 % habitat loss.

Orchidaceae-Derived Anticancer Agents: A Review.

Species of orchids, which belong to the largest family of flowering plants, are commonly used in folk medicine for the treatment of infections and tumors. However, little is known about the actual chemical composition of these plants and their anticancer properties. In this paper, the most recent literature on orchid-derived bioactive substances with anticancer properties is reviewed. For the assessment, previous papers on the anticancer activity of Orchidaceae published since 2015 were considered. The papers were found by exploring electronic databases. According to the available data, many species of orchids contain potential antitumor chemicals. The bioactive substances in a relatively insignificant number of orchids are identified, and most studies are on Asian taxa. Broader research on American and African species and the correct identification of samples included in the experiments are essential for evaluating the usefulness of orchids as a plant family with vast anticancer potential.

Erratum: Corrigendum: Kolanowska M, Baranow P, Nowak S, Fuentes A (2021) Materials to the revision of the genus Cranichis (Orchidaceae) in Bolivia. PhytoKeys 186: 11-41. https://doi.org/10.3897/phytokeys.186.71499.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3897/phytokeys.186.71499.].

Materials to the revision of the genus Cranichis (Orchidaceae) in Bolivia.

The diversity of Cranichis in Bolivia is evaluated. An updated key for identifying species is provided. Morphological characteristics of 15 species of Bolivian Cranichis are presented together with illustrations of their floral segments. The occurrence of C.diphylla, C.lehmannii, and C.muscosa in this country was not confirmed. In our opinion the previously published Bolivian record for C.polyantha is doubtful. For the first time, C.badia and C.longipetiolata are reported in this country. Two new species of Cranichis are described.

Synopsis of Habenaria s.l. (Orchidaceae) in New Guinea and adjacent islands.

A taxonomic synopsis of the orchid genus Habenaria in New Guinea and adjacent islands is presented. We confirmed the occurrence of 27 Habenaria species in study area. Sixteen of these are endemic and were not so far found outside New Guinea. Morphological characteristics and illustrations of floral segments of taxa are presented. One new species of Habenaria is described. Four neotypes are selected. An updated key to species groups and species occurring in the study area is provided. The importance of diagnostic floral characters in Habenaria is discussed.

The impact of global warming on the niches and pollinator availability of sexually deceptive orchid with a single pollen vector.

Orchidaceae are among the most endangered plants in the world. Considering the sensitive nature of pollinator-plant relationship the most vulnerable are species which are dependent on a single pollen vector. In this paper the future distribution of suitable niches of Australian sexually deceptive orchid Leporella fimbriata and its pollinator (Myrmecia urens) was estimated using three machine learning algorithms. While the potential range of fringed hare orchid depending on modelling method will be larger or slightly reduced than currently observed, the ant will face significant loss of suitable niches. As a result of global warming the overlap of orchid and its only pollen vector will most probably decrease. The unavailability of pollen vector will lead to decreased reproductive success and as a result it will be a great threat for L. fimbriata existence.

Data on the present and future distribution of suitable niches of the black vanilla orchid (Nigritella nigra s.l., Orchidaceae) and its pollinators.

The black vanilla orchid (Nigritella nigra s.l.) is a perennial plant found in the main European mountain ranges. It occurs in large numbers in the Alps, but it has become a rare and endangered species in Scandinavia due to the loss of suitable habitats. Here we present occurrence data on the occurrence of N. nigra s.l. and pollinators of this species which were used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the future distribution of the black vanilla orchid and its pollen vectors. Moreover, the values of bioclimatic variables for each locality are provided. The binary distribution models of both, orchids and insects, created using ecological niche modeling (ENM) technique are presented together with the information about changes in the coverage of suitable niches of studied organisms. Our data were used to evaluate the impact of climate change on orchid and its pollinator (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01560) and datasets can be reused in other research on past and future distribution of suitable niches of the black vanilla orchid and its pollinators as well as in other biogeographical studies. Moreover, presented outcomes of research can be useful in establishing conservation plans for montane orchids and their pollinators.

From Phenology and Habitat Preferences to Climate Change: Importance of Citizen Science in Studying Insect Ecology in the Continental Scale with American Red Flat Bark Beetle, Cucujus clavipes, as a Model Species.

The American red flat bark beetle, Cucujus clavipes, is a wide distributed saproxylic species divided into two subspecies: ssp. clavipes restricted to eastern regions of North America and ssp. puniceus occurring only in western regions of this continent. Unique morphological features, including body shape and body coloration, make this species easy to recognize even for amateurs. Surprisingly, except some studies focused on physiological adaptations of the species, the ecology of C. clavipes was almost unstudied. Based on over 500 records collected by citizen scientists and deposited in the iNaturalist data base, we studied phenological activity of adult beetles, habitat preferences and impact of future climate change for both subspecies separately. The results clearly show that spp. clavipes and ssp. puniceus can be characterized by differences in phenology and macrohabitat preferences, and their ranges do not overlap at any point. Spp. clavipes is found as more opportunistic taxon occurring in different forests as well as in urban and agricultural areas with tree vegetation always in elevations below 500 m, while elevational distribution of ssp. puniceus covers areas up to 2300 m, and the beetle was observed mainly in forested areas. Moreover, we expect that climate warming will have negative influence on both subspecies with the possible loss of proper niches at level even up to 47-70% of their actual ranges during next few decades. As the species is actually recognized as unthreatened and always co-occurs with many other species, we suggest, because of its expected future habitat loss, to pay more attention to conservationists for possible negative changes in saproxylic insects and/or forest fauna in North America. In addition, as our results clearly show that both subspecies of C. clavipes differ ecologically, which strongly supports earlier significant morphological and physiological differences noted between them, we suggest that their taxonomical status should be verified by molecular data, because very probably they represent separate species.

Suitability of Habitats in Nepal for Dactylorhiza hatagirea Now and under Predicted Future Changes in Climate.

Dactylorhiza hatagirea is a terrestrial orchid listed in Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) and classified as threatened by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). It is endemic to the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region, distributed from Pakistan to China. The main threat to its existence is climate change and the associated change in the distribution of its suitable habitats to higher altitudes due to increasing temperature. It is therefore necessary to determine the habitats that are suitable for its survival and their expected distribution after the predicted changes in climate. To do this, we use Maxent modelling of the data for its 208 locations. We predict its distribution in 2050 and 2070 using four climate change models and two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. This revealed severe losses of suitable habitat in Nepal, in which, under the worst scenario, there will be a 71-81% reduction the number of suitable locations for D. hatagirea by 2050 and 95-98% by 2070. Under the most favorable scenario, this reduction will be 65-85% by 2070. The intermediate greenhouse gas concentration trajectory surprisingly would result in a greater reduction by 2070 than the worst-case scenario. Our results provide important guidelines that local authorities interested in conserving this species could use to select areas that need to be protected now and in the future.

How to Protect Natural Habitats of Rare Terrestrial Orchids Effectively: A Comparative Case Study of Cypripedium calceolus in Different Geographical Regions of Europe.

In this article we present and discuss the main factors that threaten natural populations of Cypripedium calceolus (lady's slipper orchid) in Europe, and we propose conservation strategies and directions for protective actions of its population on a regional scale. European C. calceolus populations have decreased significantly in the last two decades, in both number and size. A key result of the present study is an evaluation of the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 network across the European Union (EU) countries. Northern and/or mountainous countries present higher percentages of potentially suitable areas within the Natura 2000 network. Finland and the United Kingdom are the exceptions to this rule. It is predicted that, due to global warming, the coverage of niches suitable for C. calceolus will decrease in countries in which now-healthy colonies exist. However, as plant species can occur in micro-sites with suitable environmental conditions (e.g., microclimate, vegetation, soil factors) which cannot be predicted as suitable at coarser spatial resolutions, conservation efforts should be focused on management of local healthy populations. For the effective protection of C. calceolus in Natura 2000 sites, the participation of experts in botany, including orchid biology, is necessary at several stages.

Synopsis of Ecuadorian Pterichis (Orchidaceae).

A taxonomic synopsis of the orchid genus Pterichis in Ecuador is presented. All national representatives of this genus are characterized and their floral segments are illustrated. Four new species and two new varieties are described. An updated key to Ecuadorian Pterichis is provided. Plants of the genus are growing mostly as terrestrial herbs at the altitude of 2,300-4,110 m. Often two or more species co-occur in the area of 25 × 25 km. Their occurrence was reported from three ecoregions-the Eastern Cordillera real montane forests, the Northern Andean páramo and the Northwestern Andean montane forests. Seven Ecuadorian Pterichis are endemic.

Ecological niche modeling of the pantropical orchid Polystachya concreta (Orchidaceae) and its response to climate change.

Climate is the dominant control factor on the spatial distribution of organisms on a global scale and global warming is predicted to become a major cause of species extinctions. In our study ecological niche modeling (ENM) was used to estimate the effect of projected future climate changes on the pantropical orchid Polystacha concreta as well as to reconstruct changes in the distribution of the suitable climatic niches of this species since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The study revealed small differences in the niches occupied by populations of P. concreta recorded in various continents; however, these alterations will become more significant in regard to future climatic change. While losses of suitable habitats of the studied orchid will occur in the Americas and Africa, global warming will be favorable for Asian populations. Our study suggests a significant loss of niches since the LGM which indicates that the currently observed loss of habitats is not only the result of human activity but also of natural changes of the Earth's climate. From the obtained models we identified the areas that will be the most resistant regarding the modifications caused by climate change.

Towards a taxonomic revision of the genus Cyrtochilum (Orchidaceae) in Northwestern South America (Northern Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela).

This article is a presentation of taxonomic diversity of the orchid genus Cyrtochilum in Northwestern South America. The morphological characteristics of over 90 species occurring in northern Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela are presented together with illustrations of their floral segments. Information about the distribution of each taxon is provided. Ten morphologically consistent groups have been delineated to facilitate identification of Cyrtochilum representatives in the studied area. Keys for determination of species within each group are provided. Seven new species of Cyrtochilum are described and one new combination is proposed.

Is the lady's-slipper orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) likely to shortly become extinct in Europe?-Insights based on ecological niche modelling.

Lady's-slipper orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) is considered an endangered species in most countries within its geographical range. The main reason for the decline in the number of populations of this species in Europe is habitat destruction. In this paper the ecological niche modelling approach was used to estimate the effect of future climate change on the area of niches suitable for C. calceolus. Predictions of the extent of the potential range of this species in 2070 were made using climate projections obtained from the Community Climate System Model for four representative concentration pathways: rcp2.6, rcp4.5, rcp6.0 and rcp8.5. According to these analyses all the scenarios of future climate change will result in the total area of niches suitable for C. calceolus decreasing. Considering areas characterized by a suitability of at least 0.4 the loss of habitat will vary between ca. 30% and 63%. The highest habitat loss of ca. 63% is predicted to occur in scenario rcp 8.5. Surprisingly, in the most damaging rcp 8.5 prediction the highest overlap between potential range of C. calceolus and its pollinators will be observed and in all other scenarios some pollinators will be available for this species in various geographical regions. Based on these results at least two approaches should be implemented to improve the chances of survival of C. calceolus. In view of the unavoidable loss of suitable habitats in numerous European regions, conservation activities should be intensified in areas where this species will still have suitable niches in the next 50 years. In addition, for C. calceolus ex-situ activities should be greatly increased so that it can be re-introduced in the remaining suitable areas.

Morphology and secondary chemistry in species recognition of Parmelia omphalodes group - evidence from molecular data with notes on the ecological niche modelling and genetic variability of photobionts.

To evaluate the importance of morphological and chemical characters used in the recognition of species within the Parmelia omphalodes group, we performed phylogenetic, morphological and chemical analyses of 335 specimens, of which 34 were used for molecular analyses. Phylogenetic analyses, based on ITS rDNA sequences, show that P. pinnatifida is distinct from P. omphalodes and the most important difference between those species is the development of pseudocyphellae. In P. pinnatifida, they are mostly marginal and form white rims along lobes margins, but laminal pseudocyphellae can develop in older parts of thalli and are predominantly connected with marginal pseudocyphellae. In contrast, in P. omphalodes laminal pseudocyphellae are common and are predominantly not connected to marginal pseudocyphellae. Chemical composition of secondary lichen metabolites in both analysed species is identical and therefore this feature is not diagnostic in species recognition. Few samples of P. discordans, species morphologically similar to P. omphalodes and P. pinnatifida, were also included in the analyses and they are nested within the clade of P. omphalodes, despite the different chemistry (protocetraric acid present versus salazinic acid in P. omphalodes). All taxa of the P. omphalodes group occupy similar niches, but their potential distributions are wider than those currently known. The absence of specimens in some localities may be limited by the photobiont availability. Parmelia omphalodes and P. pinnatifida are moderately selective in photobiont choice as they form associations with at least two or three lineages of Trebouxia clade S. Parmelia pinnatifida, as well as P. discordans are associated with Trebouxia OTU S02 which seems to have a broad ecological amplitude. Other lineages of Trebouxia seem to be rarer, especially Trebouxia sp. OTU S04, which is sometimes present in P. pinnatifida. This study indicates the importance of extensive research including morphology, chemistry and analysis of molecular markers of both bionts in taxonomical studies of lichens.