Work ability trends 2000-2020 and birth-cohort projections until 2040 in Finland.

Aims: To examine age-group and birth-cohort trends in perceived work ability in Finland in 2000-2020 and make projections of perceived work ability up to 2040 based on the observed birth-cohort development. Methods: Ten population-representative cross-sectional surveys conducted in Finland between 2000 and 2020 were used (overall N = 61,087, range 817-18,956). Self-reported estimates of current work ability in relation to the person's lifetime best on a scale from zero to ten (0-10) were classified into three groups: limited (0-5), intermediate (6-7), and good (8-10). Multiple imputation was used in projecting work ability. Results: Examining past trends by 5-year birth-cohorts born between 1961 and 1995 showed that work ability has declined steadily over time among older birth-cohorts, while in the two younger cohorts a stable development before 2017 and a steep decline between 2017 and 2020 was seen. Trends by 5-year age groups showed a declining trend of good work ability among 20-44-year-olds, a stable trend among 45-54-year-olds, and an improving trend among 55-year-olds and older was observed for the period 2000-2020. Among the under 55-year-olds the prevalence of good work ability ended up around 75% and at 68% among the 55-59-year-olds, 58% among the 60-69-year-olds and 49% among the 70-74-year-olds in 2020. Birth-cohort projections suggested a declining work ability in the future among all age groups included (30-74 years). By 2040, the prevalence of good work ability is projected to decline by 10 to 15 percentage points among 45-74-year-olds. Conclusions: The projections suggest declining work ability in the future. Efforts to counteract the decline in work ability are needed.

Efficacy and effectiveness of case isolation and quarantine during a growing phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland.

Based on data collected as part of the contact tracing activity of the City of Helsinki Epidemiological Operations Unit, we evaluated the efficacy and effectiveness of isolating SARS-CoV-2 cases and quarantining their exposed contacts during a mildly growing phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland in autumn 2020. Based on the observed symptom-to-symptom intervals in 1016 pairs of primary and secondary cases, we estimated that without case isolation or quarantine 40[Formula: see text] (90[Formula: see text] credible interval, CI 25-59) of transmission would have occurred on the day of or after symptom onset. One third of SARS-CoV-2 cases (N = 1521) had initially been quarantined, with a self-reported time until isolation (quarantine) of 0.8 days before symptom onset. This delay translates into an efficacy of 50[Formula: see text] (90[Formula: see text] CI 40-63) of averting secondary infections per quarantined case. Due to later isolation (mean 2.6 days after symptoms), the efficacy was smaller (24[Formula: see text]; 90[Formula: see text] CI 12-41) in those two third of the cases (N = 3101) whose isolation was prompted by their symptoms, i.e. without being previously quarantined. At the population level, we evaluated the effectiveness of case isolation and quarantine on the growth rate of the COVID-19 epidemic in the autumn of 2020. Under a wide range of underlying assumptions, the rate would have been at least 2 times higher without case isolation and quarantine. The numbers needed to isolate or quarantine to prevent one secondary case were 2 and 20, respectively.

Exploring the incremental utility of circulating biomarkers for robust risk prediction of incident atrial fibrillation in European cohorts using regressions and modern machine learning methods.

AIMS: To identify robust circulating predictors for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) using classical regressions and machine learning (ML) techniques within a broad spectrum of candidate variables. METHODS AND RESULTS: In pooled European community cohorts (n = 42 280 individuals), 14 routinely available biomarkers mirroring distinct pathophysiological pathways including lipids, inflammation, renal, and myocardium-specific markers (N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], high-sensitivity troponin I [hsTnI]) were examined in relation to incident AF using Cox regressions and distinct ML methods. Of 42 280 individuals (21 843 women [51.7%]; median [interquartile range, IQR] age, 52.2 [42.7, 62.0] years), 1496 (3.5%) developed AF during a median follow-up time of 5.7 years. In multivariable-adjusted Cox-regression analysis, NT-proBNP was the strongest circulating predictor of incident AF [hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD), 1.93 (95% CI, 1.82-2.04); P < 0.001]. Further, hsTnI [HR per SD, 1.18 (95% CI, 1.13-1.22); P < 0.001], cystatin C [HR per SD, 1.16 (95% CI, 1.10-1.23); P < 0.001], and C-reactive protein [HR per SD, 1.08 (95% CI, 1.02-1.14); P = 0.012] correlated positively with incident AF. Applying various ML techniques, a high inter-method consistency of selected candidate variables was observed. NT-proBNP was identified as the blood-based marker with the highest predictive value for incident AF. Relevant clinical predictors were age, the use of antihypertensive medication, and body mass index. CONCLUSION: Using different variable selection procedures including ML methods, NT-proBNP consistently remained the strongest blood-based predictor of incident AF and ranked before classical cardiovascular risk factors. The clinical benefit of these findings for identifying at-risk individuals for targeted AF screening needs to be elucidated and tested prospectively.

Risk prediction of atrial fibrillation and its complications in the community using hs troponin I.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is becoming increasingly common. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) do not explain all AF cases. Blood-based biomarkers reflecting cardiac injury such as high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) may help close this gap. METHODS: We investigated the predictive ability of hsTnI for incident AF in 45,298 participants (median age 51.4 years, 45.0% men) across European community cohorts in comparison to CVRF and established biomarkers (C-reactive protein, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 7.7 years, 1734 (3.8%) participants developed AF. Those in the highest hsTnI quarter (≥4.2 ng/L) had a 3.91-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.30, 4.63; p < .01) risk for developing AF compared to the lowest quarter (<1.4 ng/L). In multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models a statistically significant association was seen between hsTnI and AF (hazard ratio (HR) per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in log10(hsTnI) 1.08; 95% CI 1.01, 1.16; p = .03). Inclusion of hsTnI did improve model discrimination (C-index CVRF 0.811 vs. C-index CVRF and hsTnI 0.813; p < .01). Higher hsTnI concentrations were associated with heart failure (HR per SD 1.37; 95% CI 1.12, 1.68; p < .01) and overall mortality (HR per SD 1.24; 95% CI 1.09, 1.41; p < .01). CONCLUSION: hsTnI as a biomarker of myocardial injury does not improve prediction of AF incidence beyond classical CVRF and NT-proBNP. However, it is associated with the AF-related disease heart failure and mortality likely reflecting underlying subclinical cardiovascular impairment.

Using multiple imputation and intervention-based scenarios to project the mobility of older adults.

BACKGROUND: Projections of the development of mobility limitations of older adults are needed for evidence-based policy making. The aim of this study was to generate projections of mobility limitations among older people in the United States, England, and Finland. METHODS: We applied multiple imputation modelling with bootstrapping to generate projections of stair climbing and walking limitations until 2026. A physical activity intervention producing a beneficial effect on self-reported activities of daily living measures was identified in a comprehensive literature search and incorporated in the scenarios used in the projections. We utilised the harmonised longitudinal survey data from the Ageing Trajectories of Health - Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project (N = 24,982). RESULTS: Based on the scenarios from 2012 to 2026, the prevalence of walking limitations will decrease from 9.4 to 6.4%. A physical activity intervention would decrease the prevalence of stair climbing limitations compared with no intervention from 28.9 to 18.9% between 2012 and 2026. CONCLUSIONS: A physical activity intervention implemented on older population seems to have a positive effect on maintaining mobility in the future. Our method provides an interesting option for generating projections by incorporating intervention-based scenarios.

Risk Factors, Subsequent Disease Onset, and Prognostic Impact of Myocardial Infarction and Atrial Fibrillation.

Background Although myocardial infarction (MI) and atrial fibrillation (AF) are frequent comorbidities and share common cardiovascular risk factors, the direction and strength of the association of the risk factors with disease onset, subsequent disease incidence, and mortality are not completely understood. Methods and Results In pooled multivariable Cox regression analyses, we examined temporal relations of disease onset and identified predictors of MI, AF, and all-cause mortality in 108 363 individuals (median age, 46.0 years; 48.2% men) free of MI and AF at baseline from 6 European population-based cohorts. During a maximum follow-up of 10.0 years, 3558 (3.3%) individuals were diagnosed exclusively with MI, 1922 (1.8%) with AF but no MI, and 491 (0.5%) individuals developed both MI and AF. Association of sex, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive treatment, and diabetes appeared to be stronger with incident MI than with AF, whereas increasing age and body mass index showed a higher risk for incident AF. Total cholesterol and daily smoking were significantly related to incident MI but not AF. Combined population attributable fraction of cardiovascular risk factors was >70% for incident MI, whereas it was only 27% for AF. Subsequent MI after AF (hazard ratio [HR], 1.68; 95% CI, 1.03-2.74) and subsequent AF after MI (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.31-2.34) both significantly increased overall mortality risk. Conclusions We observed different associations of cardiovascular risk factors with both diseases indicating distinct pathophysiological pathways. Subsequent diagnoses of MI and AF significantly increased mortality risk.

Socio-Demographic Factors, Gambling Behaviour, and the Level of Gambling Expenditure: A Population-Based Study.

The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between socio-demographic factors, gambling behaviour, and the level of gambling expenditure. The data were drawn from the population-based Gambling Harms Survey 2016 and 2017 conducted in Finland. The data were linked to register-based variables. Past-year gamblers were included (Wave 1; n = 5 805, both Waves; n = 2 165). The study showed that of the 4.2 % of gamblers that produced 50.0 % of the total GE in 2016, 33.1 % of the GE was produced by those with a gambling problem and 43.3 % by those with at-risk gambling pattern. Compared to gamblers in the lowest GE group, those in the highest GE group were more likely to be men, aged 25 or older, with upper secondary education, have a high income, be on disability pension or sickness allowance, be frequent gamblers, gambling at least six game types, and showing at-risk and problem gambling patterns. Cumulative weekly GE by income tertiles remained fairly stable between the years. The results suggest that GE is highly concentrated. Among the small group of high-intensity consumers, the majority of the revenue comes from at-risk and problem gambling. Participants in the low GE group differ from those in the intermediate and high GE groups in terms of socio-demographics and gambling behaviour.

Effectiveness of a Gamification Strategy to Prevent Childhood Obesity in Schools: A Cluster Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine the effectiveness of a school-based gamification strategy to prevent childhood obesity. METHODS: Schools were randomized in Santiago, Chile, between March and May 2018 to control or to receive a nutrition and physical activity intervention using a gamification strategy (i.e., the use of points, levels, and rewards) to achieve healthy challenges. The intervention was delivered for 7 months and participants were assessed at 4 and 7 months. Primary outcomes were mean difference in BMI z score and waist circumference (WC) between trial arms at 7 months. Secondary outcomes were mean difference in BMI and systolic and diastolic blood pressure between trial arms at 7 months.  RESULTS: A total of 24 schools (5 controls) and 2,197 students (653 controls) were analyzed. Mean BMI z score was lower in the intervention arm compared with control (adjusted mean difference -0.133, 95% CI: -0.25 to -0.01), whereas no evidence of reduction in WC was found. Mean BMI and systolic blood pressure were lower in the intervention arm compared with control. No evidence of reduction in diastolic blood pressure was found. CONCLUSIONS: The multicomponent intervention was effective in preventing obesity but not in reducing WC. Gamification is a potentially powerful tool to increase the effectiveness of school-based interventions to prevent obesity.

Alcohol consumption, cardiac biomarkers, and risk of atrial fibrillation and adverse outcomes.

AIMS: There is inconsistent evidence on the relation of alcohol intake with incident atrial fibrillation (AF), in particular at lower doses. We assessed the association between alcohol consumption, biomarkers, and incident AF across the spectrum of alcohol intake in European cohorts. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a community-based pooled cohort, we followed 107 845 individuals for the association between alcohol consumption, including types of alcohol and drinking patterns, and incident AF. We collected information on classical cardiovascular risk factors and incident heart failure (HF) and measured the biomarkers N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin I. The median age of individuals was 47.8 years, 48.3% were men. The median alcohol consumption was 3 g/day. N = 5854 individuals developed AF (median follow-up time: 13.9 years). In a sex- and cohort-stratified Cox regression analysis alcohol consumption was non-linearly and positively associated with incident AF. The hazard ratio for one drink (12 g) per day was 1.16, 95% CI 1.11-1.22, P < 0.001. Associations were similar across types of alcohol. In contrast, alcohol consumption at lower doses was associated with reduced risk of incident HF. The association between alcohol consumption and incident AF was neither fully explained by cardiac biomarker concentrations nor by the occurrence of HF. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to other cardiovascular diseases such as HF, even modest habitual alcohol intake of 1.2 drinks/day was associated with an increased risk of AF, which needs to be considered in AF prevention.

Discovery of rare variants associated with blood pressure regulation through meta-analysis of 1.3 million individuals.

Genetic studies of blood pressure (BP) to date have mainly analyzed common variants (minor allele frequency > 0.05). In a meta-analysis of up to ~1.3 million participants, we discovered 106 new BP-associated genomic regions and 87 rare (minor allele frequency ≤ 0.01) variant BP associations (P < 5 × 10-8), of which 32 were in new BP-associated loci and 55 were independent BP-associated single-nucleotide variants within known BP-associated regions. Average effects of rare variants (44% coding) were ~8 times larger than common variant effects and indicate potential candidate causal genes at new and known loci (for example, GATA5 and PLCB3). BP-associated variants (including rare and common) were enriched in regions of active chromatin in fetal tissues, potentially linking fetal development with BP regulation in later life. Multivariable Mendelian randomization suggested possible inverse effects of elevated systolic and diastolic BP on large artery stroke. Our study demonstrates the utility of rare-variant analyses for identifying candidate genes and the results highlight potential therapeutic targets.

Comparison of operative link for gastritis assessment, operative link on gastric intestinal metaplasia assessment, and TAIM stagings among men with atrophic gastritis.

BACKGROUND: Gastric cancer is the world's third most lethal malignancy. Most gastric cancers develop through precancerous states of atrophic gastritis and intestinal metaplasia. Two staging systems, operative link for gastritis assessment (OLGA) and operative link on gastric intestinal metaplasia assessment (OLGIM), have been developed to detect high gastric cancer risk. European guidelines recommend surveillance for high-risk OLGA/OLGIM patients (stages III-IV), and for those with advanced stage of atrophic gastritis in the whole stomach mucosa. We hypothesize, that by combining atrophy and intestinal metaplasia into one staging named TAIM, more patients with increased gastric cancer risk could be detected. AIM: To evaluate the clinical value of the OLGA, OLGIM, and novel TAIM stagings as prognostic indicators for gastric cancer. METHODS: In the Helsinki Gastritis Study, 22346 elderly male smokers from southwestern Finland were screened for serum pepsinogen I (PGI). Between the years 1989 and 1993, men with low PGI values (PGI < 25 µg/L), were invited to undergo an oesophagogastroduodenoscopy. In this retrospective cohort study, 1147 men that underwent gastroscopy were followed for gastric cancer for a median of 13.7 years, and a maximum of 27.3 years. We developed a new staging system, TAIM, by combining the topography with the severity of atrophy or intestinal metaplasia in gastric biopsies. In TAIM staging, the gastric cancer risk is classified as low or high. RESULTS: Twenty-eight gastric cancers were diagnosed during the follow-up, and the incidence rate was 1.72 per 1000 patient-years. The cancer risk associated positively with TAIM [Hazard ratio (HR) 2.70, 95%CI: 1.09-6.69, P = 0.03]. The risk increased through OLGIM stages 0-IV (0 vs IV: HR 5.72, 95%CI: 1.03-31.77, P for trend = 0.004), but not through OLGA stages 0-IV (0 vs IV: HR 5.77, 95%CI: 0.67-49.77, P for trend = 0.10). The sensitivities of OLGA and OLGIM stages III-IV were low, 21% and 32%, respectively, whereas that of TAIM high-risk was good, 79%. On the contrary, OLGA and OLGIM had high specificity, 85% and 81%, respectively, but TAIM showed low specificity, 42%. In all three staging systems, the high-risk men had three- to four-times higher gastric cancer risk compared to the general male population of the same age. CONCLUSION: OLGIM and TAIM stagings show prognostic value in assessing gastric cancer risk in elderly male smokers with atrophic gastritis.

Inequalities by education and marital status in the co-occurrence of cardiovascular risk factors in Finland persisted between 1997-2017.

Understanding on sociodemographic variation of the co-occurrence of cardiovascular disease risk factors is crucial for planning future prevention strategies. We aimed at examining (1) the co-occurrence of smoking, obesity, hypertension and elevated serum cholesterol by education and marital status, and (2) its trends in different sociodemographic groups in Finland. We used data from cross-sectional health examination surveys among the general population (25-64 years): for 1997-2012 the National FINRISK Study and for 2017 the FinHealth 2017 Survey (n = 25036). A risk factor accumulation score with categories (1) zero, (2) one, (3) two, and (4) three or four elevated risk factors was the outcome in multinomial logistic regression. The risk factor score was more favourable among women, among high education groups, and slightly among participants living with a spouse. Among men, the lowest risk factor score class became more prevalent especially in the intermediate education group, which approached the highest education group over time. Our results indicate an overall transition towards a more favourable risk factor distribution. However, risk factor accumulation among the least educated remained emphasizing the need to develop and implement more targeted prevention interventions and public health policies to decrease the risk factor burden particularly in this group.

Comparison of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in European Population Cohorts for Predicting Atrial Fibrillation and Heart Failure, Their Subsequent Onset, and Death.

Background Differences in risk factors for atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) are incompletely understood. Aim of this study was to understand whether risk factors and biomarkers show different associations with incident AF and HF and to investigate predictors of subsequent onset and mortality. Methods and Results In N=58 693 individuals free of AF/HF from 5 population-based European cohorts, Cox regressions were used to find predictors for AF, HF, subsequent onset, and mortality. Differences between associations were estimated using bootstrapping. Median follow-up time was 13.8 years, with a mortality of 15.7%. AF and HF occurred in 5.0% and 5.4% of the participants, respectively, with 1.8% showing subsequent onset. Age, male sex, myocardial infarction, body mass index, and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) showed similar associations with both diseases. Antihypertensive medication and smoking were stronger predictors of HF than AF. Cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and hsCRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) were associated with HF, but not with AF. No variable was exclusively associated with AF. Population-attributable risks were higher for HF (75.6%) than for AF (30.9%). Age, male sex, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, and NT-proBNP were associated with subsequent onset, which was associated with the highest all-cause mortality risk. Conclusions Common risk factors and biomarkers showed different associations with AF and HF, and explained a higher proportion of HF than AF risk. As the subsequent onset of both diseases was strongly associated with mortality, prevention needs to be rigorously addressed and remains challenging, as conventional risk factors explained only 31% of AF risk.

Does Estimated Pulse Wave Velocity Add Prognostic Information?: MORGAM Prospective Cohort Project.

The Reference Values for Arterial Stiffness Collaboration has derived an equation using age and mean blood pressure to estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV), which predicted cardiovascular events independently of Systematic COoronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) and Framingham Risk Score. The study aim was to investigate the independent association between ePWV and clinical outcomes in 107 599 apparently healthy subjects (53% men) aged 19 to 97 years from the MORGAM Project who were included between 1982 and 2002 in 38 cohorts from 11 countries. Using multiple Cox-regression analyses, the predictive value of ePWV was calculated adjusting for country of inclusion and either SCORE, Framingham Risk Score, or traditional cardiovascular risk factors (age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, body mass index [BMI], total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). Cardiovascular mortality consisted of fatal stroke, fatal myocardial infarction, or coronary death, and the composite cardiovascular end point consisted of stroke, myocardial infarction, or coronary death. Model discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C-statistic. Adjusting for country and logSCORE or Framingham Risk Score, ePWV was associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.23 [95% CI 1.20-1.25] per m/s or 1.32 [1.29-1.34]), cardiovascular mortality (1.26 [1.21-1.32] or 1.35 [1.31-1.40]), and composite cardiovascular end point (1.19 [1.16-1.22] or 1.23 [1.20-1.25]; all P<0.001). However, after adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, ePWV was only associated with all-cause mortality (1.15 [1.08-1.22], P<0.001) and not with cardiovascular mortality (0.97 [0.91-1.03]) nor composite cardiovascular end point (1.10 [0.97-1.26]). The areas under the last 3 receiver operator characteristic curves remained unchanged when adding ePWV. Elevated ePWV was associated with subsequent mortality and cardiovascular morbidity independently of systematic coronary risk evaluation and Framingham Risk Score but not independently of traditional cardiovascular risk factors.

High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin I Levels and Prediction of Heart Failure: Results From the BiomarCaRE Consortium.

OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were to characterize the association of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) with heart failure (HF), to determine its predictive value beyond classical cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and to derive a relevant cutoff for potential clinical application. BACKGROUND: HF is an important contributor to the overall burden of cardiovascular disease. Early identification of individuals at risk could be beneficial for preventive therapies. METHODS: Based on the Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe consortium, we analyzed individual-level data from 4 prospective population-based cohort studies including 48,455 individuals. Participants with myocardial infarction, HF, and stroke at baseline were excluded. We investigated the value of adding hs-cTnI to CVRFs and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide using Cox proportional hazards survival models and for prediction by calculating C-statistics and Brier score. RESULTS: The median age of the study population was 51 years, and the median follow-up time for occurrence of HF was 6.61 years. Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, and CVRFs revealed a significant association of hs-cTnI with incident HF (hazard ratio: 1.42 per log [ng/l] unit change [95% confidence interval: 1.31 to 1.53]). The best predictive value was achieved in the model with CVRFs (base model) and both biomarkers (C-index = 0.862; 95% confidence interval: 0.841 to 0.882). Optimal hs-cTnI cutoff values of 2.6 ng/l for women and 4.2 ng/l for men were derived for selecting individuals at risk. CONCLUSIONS: In this large dataset from the general population, hs-cTnI could show its independence for the prognosis of HF.

Temporal relations between atrial fibrillation and ischaemic stroke and their prognostic impact on mortality.

AIMS: Limited evidence is available on the temporal relationship between atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischaemic stroke and their impact on mortality in the community. We sought to understand the temporal relationship of AF and ischaemic stroke and to determine the sequence of disease onset in relation to mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: Across five prospective community cohorts of the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project we assessed baseline cardiovascular risk factors in 100 132 individuals, median age 46.1 (25th-75th percentile 35.8-57.5) years, 48.4% men. We followed them for incident ischaemic stroke and AF and determined the relation of subsequent disease diagnosis with overall mortality. Over a median follow-up of 16.1 years, N = 4555 individuals were diagnosed solely with AF, N = 2269 had an ischaemic stroke but no AF diagnosed, and N = 898 developed both, ischaemic stroke and AF. Temporal relationships showed a clustering of diagnosis of both diseases within the years around the diagnosis of the other disease. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analyses with time-dependent covariates subsequent diagnosis of AF after ischaemic stroke was associated with increased mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 4.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.17-7.54; P < 0.001] which was also apparent when ischaemic stroke followed after the diagnosis of AF (HR 3.08, 95% CI 1.90-5.00; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The temporal relations of ischaemic stroke and AF appear to be bidirectional. Ischaemic stroke may precede detection of AF by years. The subsequent diagnosis of both diseases significantly increases mortality risk. Future research needs to investigate the common underlying systemic disease processes.

Association of Circulating Metabolites With Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in a European Population: Results From the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) Consortium.

Importance: Risk stratification for coronary heart disease (CHD) remains challenging because of the complex causative mechanism of the disease. Metabolomic profiling offers the potential to detect new biomarkers and improve CHD risk assessment. Objective: To evaluate the association between circulating metabolites and incident CHD in a large European cohort. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based study used the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) case-cohort to measure circulating metabolites using a targeted approach in serum samples from 10 741 individuals without prevalent CHD. The cohort consisted of a weighted, random subcohort of the original cohort of more than 70 000 individuals. The case-cohort design was applied to 6 European cohorts: FINRISK97 (Finland), Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Diseases/Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (MONICA/KORA; Germany), MONICA-Brianza and Moli-sani (Italy), DanMONICA (Denmark), and the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (United Kingdom). Main Outcomes and Measures: Associations with time to CHD onset were assessed individually by applying weighted and adjusted Cox proportional hazard models. The association of metabolites with CHD onset was examined by C indices. Results: In 10 741 individuals (4157 women [38.7%]; median [interquartile range] age, 56.5 [49.2-62.2] years), 2166 incident CHD events (20.2%) occurred over a median (interquartile range) follow-up time of 9.2 (4.5-15.0) years. Among the 141 metabolites analyzed, 24 were significantly associated with incident CHD at a nominal P value of .05, including phosphatidylcholines (PCs), lysoPCs, amino acids, and sphingolipids. Five PCs remained significant after correction for multiple testing: acyl-alkyl-PC C40:6 (hazard ratio [HR], 1.13 [95% CI, 1.07-1.18]), diacyl-PC C40:6 (HR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.04-1.15]), acyl-alkyl-PC C38:6 (HR, 1.11 [95% CI, 1.05-1.16]), diacyl-PC C38:6 (HR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.04-1.14]) and diacyl-PC C38:5 (HR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.05-1.16]). Lower levels of these metabolites were associated with increased risk of incident CHD. The strength of the associations competes with those of classic risk factors (C statistics: acyl-alkyl-PC C40:6, 0.756 [95% CI, 0.738-0.774], diacyl-PC C40:6, 0.754 [95% CI, 0.736-0.772], acyl-alkyl-PC C38:6, 0.755 [95% CI, 0.736-0.773], diacyl-PC C38:6, 0.754 [95% CI, 0.736-0.772]), diacyl-PC C38:5, 0.754 [95% CI, 0.736-0.772]). Adding metabolites to a base risk model including classic risk factors high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and high-sensitivity troponin I did not improve discrimination by C statistics. Conclusions and Relevance: Five PCs were significantly associated with increased risk of incident CHD and showed comparable discrimination with individual classic risk factors. Although these metabolites do not improve CHD risk assessment beyond that of classic risk factors, these findings hold promise for an improved understanding of the pathophysiology of CHD.

Insulin-like growth factor I, binding proteins -1 and -3, risk of type 2 diabetes and macronutrient intakes in men.

The insulin-like growth factor (IGF) axis may be involved in the development of type 2 diabetes. We examined the associations of IGF-I and IGF binding proteins (IGFBP)-1 and -3 with diabetes risk and evaluated macronutrient intakes related to the observed associations. In a nested case-control study of the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study of Finnish male smokers aged 50-69 years, the IGF variables were measured from baseline serum samples for a random sample of 310 men with diabetes diagnosed during a 12-year follow-up and for 310 controls matched by age, recruitment day and intervention group. Diet at baseline was assessed using a validated FFQ. The associations of IGF proteins with diabetes risk were estimated using conditional logistic regression and the associations with macronutrient intakes using linear regression. IGF-I and IGFBP-3 were not associated with the incidence of diabetes. Higher IGFBP-1 was associated with lower diabetes risk in an unadjusted crude model (OR 0·25; 95 % CI 0·15, 0·42 in the highest quartile compared with the lowest), but not after adjustment for BMI (corresponding OR 0·76; 95 % CI 0·41, 1·40). Intakes of carbohydrates, plant protein and milk protein associated positively and intake of meat protein and fat negatively with IGFBP-1 (P<0·005). IGFBP-1 was inversely associated with diabetes risk, but the association was substantially dependent on BMI. The associations between macronutrient intakes and IGFBP-1 may reflect influences of nutrients or foods on insulin concentrations.

Long-term gastric cancer risk in male smokers with atrophic corpus gastritis.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate long-term gastric cancer risk in male smokers with and without atrophic gastritis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 22,346 elderly male smokers participated in the Helsinki Gastritis Study between the years 1989 and 1993. Serum pepsinogen I (PGI) was measured for the men, and 2,132 men with low PGI (<25 µg/L; a marker of atrophic corpus gastritis) were invited to undergo gastroscopy because of increased gastric cancer risk. Endoscopy was performed to 1,327 men, who were followed up for a median of 13.6 years and a maximum of 25.3 years thereafter. In addition, the gastric cancer risk of men with low PGI was compared to that of the men with normal PGI and to the general Finnish male population of the same age. RESULTS: Thirty-five cases of gastric cancer were diagnosed in men with gastroscopy during the follow-up. The incidence rate was 1.94 per 1000 patient years. The men with a history of gastric surgery (n = 180) due to a benign cause had even higher gastric cancer incidence (3.2 per 1000 patient-years). Gastric cancer risk was highest in men with marked intestinal metaplasia in primary biopsies. Compared to the general Finnish male population of the same age, the cancer risk was 1.13 times higher in male smokers with normal serum PGI, and 2.43 times higher in men with low serum PGI. CONCLUSION: In male smokers, atrophic gastritis and intestinal metaplasia increase the risk of gastric cancer.