Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods.

Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere1. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe2. Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe3, because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far-suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century4,5, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.

Changes in short term river flow regulation and hydropeaking in Nordic rivers.

Quantifying short-term changes in river flow is important in understanding the environmental impacts of hydropower generation. Energy markets can change rapidly and energy demand fluctuates at sub-daily scales, which may cause corresponding changes in regulated river flow (hydropeaking). Due to increasing use of renewable energy, in future hydropower will play a greater role as a load balancing power source. This may increase current hydropeaking levels in Nordic river systems, creating challenges in maintaining a healthy ecological status. This study examined driving forces for hydropeaking in Nordic rivers using extensive datasets from 150 sites with hourly time step river discharge data. It also investigated the influence of increased wind power production on hydropeaking. The data revealed that hydropeaking is at high levels in the Nordic rivers and have seen an increase over the last decade and especially over the past few years. These results indicate that increased building for renewable energy may increase hydropeaking in Nordic rivers.

Changing climate shifts timing of European floods.

A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale.

Capturing neutral and adaptive genetic diversity for conservation in a highly structured tree species.

Preserving intraspecific genetic diversity is essential for long-term forest sustainability in a climate change scenario. Despite that, genetic information is largely neglected in conservation planning, and how conservation units should be defined is still heatedly debated. Here, we use maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.), an outcrossing long-lived tree with a highly fragmented distribution in the Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot, to prove the importance of accounting for genetic variation, of both neutral molecular markers and quantitative traits, to define useful conservation units. Six gene pools associated to distinct evolutionary histories were identified within the species using 12 microsatellites and 266 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). In addition, height and survival standing variation, their genetic control, and plasticity were assessed in a multisite clonal common garden experiment (16 544 trees). We found high levels of quantitative genetic differentiation within previously defined neutral gene pools. Subsequent cluster analysis and post hoc trait distribution comparisons allowed us to define 10 genetically homogeneous population groups with high evolutionary potential. They constitute the minimum number of units to be represented in a maritime pine dynamic conservation program. Our results uphold that the identification of conservation units below the species level should account for key neutral and adaptive components of genetic diversity, especially in species with strong population structure and complex evolutionary histories. The environmental zonation approach currently used by the pan-European genetic conservation strategy for forest trees would be largely improved by gradually integrating molecular and quantitative trait information, as data become available.

Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change.

A transnational network of genetic conservation units for forest trees was recently documented in Europe aiming at the conservation of evolutionary processes and the adaptive potential of natural or man-made tree populations. In this study, we quantified the vulnerability of individual conservation units and the whole network to climate change using climate favourability models and the estimated velocity of climate change. Compared to the overall climate niche of the analysed target species populations at the warm and dry end of the species niche are underrepresented in the network. However, by 2100, target species in 33-65 % of conservation units, mostly located in southern Europe, will be at the limit or outside the species' current climatic niche as demonstrated by favourabilities below required model sensitivities of 95%. The highest average decrease in favourabilities throughout the network can be expected for coniferous trees although they are mainly occurring within units in mountainous landscapes for which we estimated lower velocities of change. Generally, the species-specific estimates of favourabilities showed only low correlations to the velocity of climate change in individual units, indicating that both vulnerability measures should be considered for climate risk analysis. The variation in favourabilities among target species within the same conservation units is expected to increase with climate change and will likely require a prioritization among co-occurring species. The present results suggest that there is a strong need to intensify monitoring efforts and to develop additional conservation measures for populations in the most vulnerable units. Also, our results call for continued transnational actions for genetic conservation of European forest trees, including the establishment of dynamic conservation populations outside the current species distribution ranges within European assisted migration schemes.

Dynamic conservation of forest genetic resources in 33 European countries.

Dynamic conservation of forest genetic resources (FGR) means maintaining the genetic diversity of trees within an evolutionary process and allowing generation turnover in the forest. We assessed the network of forests areas managed for the dynamic conservation of FGR (conservation units) across Europe (33 countries). On the basis of information available in the European Information System on FGR (EUFGIS Portal), species distribution maps, and environmental stratification of the continent, we developed ecogeographic indicators, a marginality index, and demographic indicators to assess and monitor forest conservation efforts. The pan-European network has 1967 conservation units, 2737 populations of target trees, and 86 species of target trees. We detected a poor coincidence between FGR conservation and other biodiversity conservation objectives within this network. We identified 2 complementary strategies: a species-oriented strategy in which national conservation networks are specifically designed for key target species and a site-oriented strategy in which multiple-target units include so-called secondary species conserved within a few sites. The network is highly unbalanced in terms of species representation, and 7 key target species are conserved in 60% of the conservation units. We performed specific gap analyses for 11 tree species, including assessment of ecogeographic, demographic, and genetic criteria. For each species, we identified gaps, particularly in the marginal parts of their distribution range, and found multiple redundant conservation units in other areas. The Mediterranean forests and to a lesser extent the boreal forests are underrepresented. Monitoring the conservation efficiency of each unit remains challenging; however, <2% of the conserved populations seem to be at risk of extinction. On the basis of our results, we recommend combining species-oriented and site-oriented strategies.

Analysis of gas exchange of Merkus pine populations by the optimality approach.

We hypothesized that northern and northeastern Thai populations of Merkus pine (Pinus merkusii Jungh. et de Vriese), which differ in the duration of their grass stage and which originate from slightly different climates in terms of water availability, differ in their gas exchange characteristics. We compared CO(2) exchange response to irradiance, diurnal regulation of leaf conductance within a 10-day period and structural properties among the populations. We used a model, which is based on the concept of optimal stomatal regulation, to analyze CO(2) exchange and transpiration rates. The two geographical groups did not differ in CO(2) exchange response to irradiance, diurnal transpiration, or water use. Mean stomatal length was significantly greater in the northeastern population than in the northern populations, but stomatal frequency did not differ among populations. First-year shoot growth and dry matter production, allocation of nitrogen to needles and root:shoot ratios were similar in the two geographical groups. Genotypic variation in the duration of the grass stage was not reflected in variation in gas exchange, indicating that the grass stage is an adaptation to more site-specific conditions. The modeled response of CO(2) exchange rates to irradiance fitted well the rates measured under laboratory conditions. The transpiration model, which utilized maximum leaf conductance and other parameters derived from the CO(2) exchange measurements, also fitted well the transpiration rates measured in a greenhouse under changing environmental conditions.