Classification performance of the Sella-Tunis et al. (2017) sex estimation method in Czech population: different posterior probability threshold approaches.

In this study we tested classification performance of a sex estimation method from the mandible originally developed by Sella-Tunis et al. (2017) on a heterogeneous Israeli population. Mandibular linear dimensions were measured on 60 CT scans derived from the Czech living population. Classification performance of Israeli discriminant functions (DFs-IL) was analyzed in comparison with calculated Czech discriminant functions (DFs-CZ) while different posterior probability thresholds (currently discussed in the forensic literature) were employed. Our results comprehensively illustrate sensitivity of different discriminant functions to population differences in body size and degree of sexual dimorphism. We demonstrate that the error rate may be biased when presented per posterior probability threshold. DF-IL 1 showed least sensitivity to population origin and fulfilled criteria of sufficient classification performance when applied on the Czech sample with a minimum posterior probability threshold of 0.88 reaching overall accuracy ≥ 95%, zero sex bias, and 80% of classified individuals. The last parameter was higher in DF-CZ 1 which was the main difference between those two DFs suggesting relatively low dependance on population origin. As the use of population-specific methods is often prevented by complicated assessment of population origin, DF-IL 1 is a candidate for a sufficiently robust method that could be reliably applied outside the reference sample, and thus, its classification performance deserves further testing on more population samples.

Prioritizing a high posterior probability threshold leading to low error rate over high classification accuracy: the validity of MorphoPASSE software for cranial morphological sex estimation in a contemporary population.

An increasing number of software tools can be used in forensic anthropology to estimate a biological profile, but further studies in other populations are required for more robust validation. The present study aimed to evaluate the validity of MorphoPASSE software for sex estimation from sexually dimorphic cranial traits recorded on 3D CT models (n = 180) from three populations samples (Czech, French, and Egyptian). Two independent observers performed scoring of 4 cranial traits (2 of them bilateral) in each population sample of 30 males and 30 females. The accuracy of sex estimation using traditional posterior probability threshold (pp = 0.5) ranged from 85.6% to 88.3% and overall classification error from 14.4% to 11.7% for both observers, and corresponds to the previously published values of the method. The MorphoPASSE method is also affected by the subjectivity of the observers, as both observers show agreement in sex assignment in 83.9% of cases, regardless of the accuracy of the estimates. Applying a higher posterior probability threshold (pp 0.95) provided classification accuracy of 97.9% and 93.3% of individuals (for observer A and B respectively), minimizing the risk of error to 2.1% and 6.7%, respectively. However, sex estimation can only be applied to 54% and 66% of individuals, respectively. Our results demonstrate the validity of the MorphoPASSE software for cranial sex estimation outside the reference population. However, the achieved classification success is accompanied by a high risk of errors, the reduction of which is only possible by increasing the posterior probability threshold.

Automated age-at-death estimation from 3D surface scans of the facies auricularis of the pelvic bone.

This work presents an automated data-mining model for age-at-death estimation based on 3D scans of the auricular surface of the pelvic bone. The study is based on a multi-population sample of 688 individuals (males and females) originating from one Asian and five European identified osteological collections. Our method requires no expert knowledge and achieves similar accuracy compared to traditional subjective methods. Apart from data acquisition, the whole procedure of pre-processing, feature extraction and age estimation is fully automated and implemented as a computer program. This program is a part of a freely available web-based software tool called CoxAGE3D. This software tool is available at https://coxage3d.fit.cvut.cz/ Our age-at-death estimation method is suitable for use on individuals with known/unknown population affinity and provides moderate correlation between the estimated age and actual age (Pearson's correlation coefficient is 0.56), and a mean absolute error of 12.4 years.

The computational age-at-death estimation from 3D surface models of the adult pubic symphysis using data mining methods.

Age-at-death estimation of adult skeletal remains is a key part of biological profile estimation, yet it remains problematic for several reasons. One of them may be the subjective nature of the evaluation of age-related changes, or the fact that the human eye is unable to detect all the relevant surface changes. We have several aims: (1) to validate already existing computer models for age estimation; (2) to propose our own expert system based on computational approaches to eliminate the factor of subjectivity and to use the full potential of surface changes on an articulation area; and (3) to determine what age range the pubic symphysis is useful for age estimation. A sample of 483 3D representations of the pubic symphyseal surfaces from the ossa coxae of adult individuals coming from four European (two from Portugal, one from Switzerland and Greece) and one Asian (Thailand) identified skeletal collections was used. A validation of published algorithms showed very high error in our dataset-the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) ranged from 16.2 and 25.1 years. Two completely new approaches were proposed in this paper: SASS (Simple Automated Symphyseal Surface-based) and AANNESS (Advanced Automated Neural Network-grounded Extended Symphyseal Surface-based), whose MAE values are 11.7 and 10.6 years, respectively. Lastly, it was demonstrated that our models could estimate the age-at-death using the pubic symphysis over the entire adult age range. The proposed models offer objective age estimates with low estimation error (compared to traditional visual methods) and are able to estimate age using the pubic symphysis across the entire adult age range.

Age-related differences in cranial sexual dimorphism in contemporary Europe.

Biomechanical load and hormonal levels tended to change just like the soft and skeletal tissue of the elderly with age. Although aging in both sexes shared common traits, it was assumed that there would be a reduction of sexual dimorphism in aged individuals. The main goals of this study were (1) to evaluate age-related differences in cranial sexual dimorphism during senescence, (2) to determine age-related differences in female and male skulls separately, and (3) to compare skull senescence in Czech and French adult samples as discussed by Musilová et al. (Forensic Sci Int 269:70-77, 2016). The cranial surface was analyzed using coherent point drift-dense correspondence analysis. The study sample consisted of 245 CT scans of heads from recent Czech (83 males and 59 females) and French (52 males and 51 females) individuals. Virtual scans in the age range from 18 to 92 years were analyzed using geometric morphometrics. The cranial form was significantly greater in males in all age categories. After size normalization, sexual dimorphism of the frontal, occipital, and zygomatic regions tended to diminish in the elderly. Its development during aging was caused by morphological changes in both female and male skulls but secular changes must also be taken into account. The most notable aging changes were the widening of the neurocranium and the retrusion of the face, including the forehead, especially after the age of 60 in both sexes. Sexual dimorphism was similar between the Czech and French samples but its age-related differences were partially different because of the population specificity. Cranial senescence was found to degrade the accuracy of sex classification (92-94%) in the range of 2-3%.

Impact of 3D surface scanning protocols on the Os coxae digital data: Implications for sex and age-at-death assessment.

The 3D imaging technologies have become of paramount importance for example in disciplines such as forensic anthropology and bioarchaeology, where they are being used more and more frequently. There are several new possibilities that they offer; for instance, the easier and faster sharing of data among institutions, the possibility of permanent documentation, or new opportunities of data analysis. An important requirement, however, is whether the data obtained from different scanning devices are comparable and whether the possible varying outputs could affect further analyses, such as the estimation of the biological profile. Therefore, we aimed to investigate two important questions: (1) whether 3D models acquired by two different scanning technologies (structured light and laser) are comparable and (2) whether the scanning equipment has an effect on the anthropological analyses, such as age-at-death estimation and sex assessment. 3D models of ossa coxa (n = 29) were acquired by laser (NextEngine) and structured light (HP 3D Structured Light Scanner PRO 2) scanners. The resulting 3D models from both scanners were subjected to age-at-death analyses (via the quantitative method of Stoyanova et al., 2017) and sex analyses (via Diagnose Sexuelle Probabiliste 2 of Bruzek et al., 2017). Furthermore, high quality scans of a small sample (n = 5) of pubic symphyseal surfaces with the RedLux Profiler device were acquired as reference surfaces to which the outputs from both scanners were compared. Small deviations between surfaces were more evident in more rugged surfaces (in areas of depression and protrusion). Even though small differences from the reference surfaces were found, they did not have a significant effect on the age and sex estimates. It never resulted in the opposite sex assignment, and no significant differences were observed between age estimates (with the exception of those with the TPS/BE model).

A validation study of the Stoyanova et al. method (2017) for age-at-death estimation quantifying the 3D pubic symphyseal surface of adult males of European populations.

The age-at-death estimation thresholds have recently been shifted towards a more objective assessment of the aging process. Such a non-subjective approach offers quantitative methods of age estimation; for instance, the method relating to the surfaces of pubic symphyses of males published by Stoyanova et al. (J Forensic Sci 62:1434-1444, 2017). A validation study was conducted to test the method performance in European samples. The sample consisted of 96 meshes of pubic symphyses of male individuals (known sex and age) that came from four different samples (two Portuguese collections, one Swiss, and one Crete). Stoyanova's method based on five regression models (three univariate and two multivariate models) performed worse in our sample, but only when the whole sample (without age limitation) was included. A sample limited to individuals under 40 years of age achieved better results in our study. The best results were reached through the thin plate spline algorithm (TPS/BE) with a root mean square error of 5.93 years and inaccuracy of 4.47 years. Generally, the multivariate regression models did not contribute to better age estimation. In our sample in all age categories, age was systematically underestimated. The quantitative method tested in this study works best for individuals under 40 years of age and provides a suitable basis for further research.

Age estimation of adult human remains from hip bones using advanced methods.

The assessment of age-at-death is an important and challenging part of investigations of human skeletal remains. The main objective of the present study was to apply different mathematical approaches in order to reach more accurate and reliable results in age estimation. A multi-ethnic dataset (n=941) of evaluated age-related changes on the pubic symphysis and the auricular surface of the hip bone was used. Two research groups examined nine different mathematical approaches. The best results were reached by Multi-linear regression, followed by the Collapsed regression model, with MAE values of 9.7 and 9.9 years, respectively, and with RMSE values of 12.1 and 12.2, respectively. The mean accuracy of decision tree models ranged between 30.7% and 72.3%, with the model using only the PUSx indicator performing the best. Moreover, our results indicate that the limiting factor of age estimation can be the visual evaluation of age-related changes. Further research is required to objectify the proposed methods for estimating age.

Disregarding population specificity: its influence on the sex assessment methods from the tibia.

Forensic anthropology has developed classification techniques for sex estimation of unknown skeletal remains, for example population-specific discriminant function analyses. These methods were designed for populations that lived mostly in the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Their level of reliability or misclassification is important for practical use in today's forensic practice; it is, however, unknown. We addressed the question of what the likelihood of errors would be if population specificity of discriminant functions of the tibia were disregarded. Moreover, five classification functions in a Czech sample were proposed (accuracies 82.1-87.5 %, sex bias ranged from -1.3 to -5.4 %). We measured ten variables traditionally used for sex assessment of the tibia on a sample of 30 male and 26 female models from recent Czech population. To estimate the classification accuracy and error (misclassification) rates ignoring population specificity, we selected published classification functions of tibia for the Portuguese, south European, and the North American populations. These functions were applied on the dimensions of the Czech population. Comparing the classification success of the reference and the tested Czech sample showed that females from Czech population were significantly overestimated and mostly misclassified as males. Overall accuracy of sex assessment significantly decreased (53.6-69.7 %), sex bias -29.4-100 %, which is most probably caused by secular trend and the generally high variability of body size. Results indicate that the discriminant functions, developed for skeletal series representing geographically and chronologically diverse populations, are not applicable in current forensic investigations. Finally, implications and recommendations for future research are discussed.