Monitoring and Prediction of Siberian Silk Moth Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv. (Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae) Outbreaks Using Remote Sensing Techniques.

The feasibility of risk assessment of a Siberian silk moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv.) outbreak was analyzed by means of landscape and weather characteristics and tree condition parameters. Difficulties in detecting forest pest outbreaks (especially in Siberian conditions) are associated with the inability to conduct regular ground surveillance in taiga territories, which generally occupy more than 2 million km2. Our analysis of characteristics of Siberian silk moth outbreak zones under mountainous taiga conditions showed that it is possible to distinguish an altitudinal belt between 400 and 800 m above sea level where an outbreak develops and trees are damaged. It was found that to assess the resistance of forest stands to pest attacks, researchers can employ new parameters: namely, characteristics of a response of remote sensing variables to changes in land surface temperature. Using these parameters, it is possible to identify in advance (2-3 years before an outbreak) forest stands that are not resistant to the pest. Thus, field studies in difficult-to-access taiga forests are not needed to determine these parameters, and hence the task of monitoring outbreaks of forest insects is simplified substantially.

Decoherence and Turbulence Sources in a Long Laser.

We investigate the turn-on process in a laser cavity where the round-trip time is several orders of magnitude greater than the active medium timescales. In this long delay limit, we show that the universal evolution of the photon statistics from thermal to Poissonian distribution involves the emergence of power dropouts. While the largest number of these dropouts vanish after a few round-trips, some of them persist and seed coherent structures similar to dark solitons or Nozaki-Bekki holes described by the complex Ginzburg-Landau equation. These coherent structures connect stationary laser emission domains having different optical frequencies. Moreover, they emit intensity bursts which travel at a different speed, and, depending on the cavity dispersion sign, they may collide with other coherent structures, thus leading to an overall turbulent dynamics. The dynamics is well-modeled by delay differential equations from which we compute the laser coherence time evolution at each round-trip and quantify the decoherence induced by the collisions between coherent structures.

Raman Spectroscopy for Urea Breath Test.

The urea breath test is a non-invasive diagnostic method for Helicobacter pylori infections, which relies on the change in the proportion of 13CO2 in exhaled air. Nondispersive infrared sensors are commonly used for the urea breath test in laboratory equipment, but Raman spectroscopy demonstrated potential for more accurate measurements. The accuracy of the Helicobacter pylori detection via the urea breath test using 13CO2 as a biomarker is affected by measurement errors, including equipment error and δ13C measurement uncertainty. We present a Raman scattering-based gas analyzer capable of δ13C measurements in exhaled air. The technical details of the various measurement conditions have been discussed. Standard gas samples were measured. 12CO2 and 13CO2 calibration coefficients were determined. The Raman spectrum of the exhaled air was measured and the δ13C change (in the process of the urea breath test) was calculated. The total error measured was 6% and does not exceed the limit of 10% that was analytically calculated.

Short delay limit of the delayed Duffing oscillator.

The delayed Duffing equation, x^{″}+ɛx^{'}+x+x^{3}+cx(t-τ)=0, admits a Hopf bifurcation which becomes singular in the limit ɛ→0 and τ=O(ɛ)→0. To resolve this singularity, we develop an asymptotic theory where x(t-τ) is Taylor expanded in powers of τ. We derive a minimal system of ordinary differential equations that captures the Hopf bifurcation branch of the original delay differential equation. An unexpected result of our analysis is the necessity of expanding x(t-τ) up to third order rather than first order. Our work is motivated by laser stability problems exhibiting the same bifurcation problem as the delayed Duffing oscillator [Kovalev et al., Phys. Rev. E 103, 042206 (2021)2470-004510.1103/PhysRevE.103.042206]. Here we substantiate our theory based on the short delay limit by showing the overlap (matching) between our solution and two different asymptotic solutions derived for arbitrary fixed delays.

Detection of A and B Influenza Viruses by Surface-Enhanced Raman Scattering Spectroscopy and Machine Learning.

We demonstrate the possibility of applying surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) combined with machine learning technology to detect and differentiate influenza type A and B viruses in a buffer environment. The SERS spectra of the influenza viruses do not possess specific peaks that allow for their straight classification and detection. Machine learning technologies (particularly, the support vector machine method) enabled the differentiation of samples containing influenza A and B viruses using SERS with an accuracy of 93% at a concentration of 200 µg/mL. The minimum detectable concentration of the virus in the sample using the proposed approach was ~0.05 µg/mL of protein (according to the Lowry protein assay), and the detection accuracy of a sample with this pathogen concentration was 84%.

Short-delayed-feedback semiconductor lasers.

We consider the laser rate equations describing the evolution of a semiconductor laser subject to an optoelectronic feedback. We concentrate on the first Hopf bifurcation induced by a short delay and develop an asymptotic theory where the delayed variable is Taylor expanded. We determine a nearly vertical branch of strongly nonlinear oscillations and derive ordinary differential equations that capture the bifurcation properties of the original delay differential equations. An unexpected result is the need for Taylor expanding the delayed variable up to third order rather than first order. We discuss recent laser experiments where sustained oscillations have been clearly observed with a short-delayed feedback.

The Cyclicity of coronavirus cases: "Waves" and the "weekend effect".

INTRODUCTION: Medical statistics is one of the "milestones" of current medical systems. It is the foundation for many protocols, including medical care systems, government recommendations, epidemic planning, etc. At this time of global COVID-19, credible data on epidemic spread can help governments make better decisions. This study's aim is to evaluate the cyclicity in the number of daily diagnosed coronavirus patients, thus allowing governments to plan how to allocate their resources more effectively. METHODS: To assess this cycle, we consider the time series of the first and second differences in the number of registered patients in different countries. The spectral densities of the time series are calculated, and the frequencies and amplitudes of the maximum spectral peaks are estimated. RESULTS: It is shown that two types of cycles can be distinguished in the time series of the case numbers. Cyclical fluctuations of the first type are characterized by periods from 100 to 300 days. Cyclical fluctuations of the second type are characterized by a period of about seven days. For different countries, the phases of the seven-day fluctuations coincide. It is assumed that cyclical fluctuations of the second type are associated with the weekly cycle of population activity. CONCLUSIONS: These characteristics of cyclical fluctuations in cases can be used to predict the incidence rate.

A new modelling of the COVID 19 pandemic.

А model of coronavirus incidence is proposed. Process of disease development is represented as analogue of first- and second order phase transition in physical systems. The model is very simple in terms of the data necessary for the calculations. To verify the proposed model, only data on the current incidence rate are required. However, the determination coefficient of model R2 is very high and exceeds 0.95 for most countries. The model permits the accurate prediction of the pandemics dynamics at intervals of up to 10 days. The ADL(autoregressive distributed lag)-model was introduced in addition to the phase transition model to describe the development of the disease at the exponential phase.The ADL-model allows describing nonmonotonic changes in relative infection over the time, and providing to governments and health care decision makers the possibility to predict the outcomes of their decisions on public health.

Mitochondrial performance of a continually growing marine bivalve, Mytilus edulis, depends on body size.

Allometric decline of mass-specific metabolic rate with increasing body size in organisms is a well-documented phenomenon. Despite a long history of research, the mechanistic causes of metabolic scaling with body size remain under debate. Some hypotheses suggest that intrinsic factors such as allometry of cellular and mitochondrial metabolism may contribute to the organismal-level metabolic scaling. The aim of our present study was to determine the metabolic allometry at the mitochondrial level using a continually growing marine ectotherm, the mussel Mytilus edulis, as a model. Mussels from a single cohort that considerably differed in body size were selected, implying faster growth in the larger specimens. We determined the body mass-dependent scaling of the mitochondrial proton leak respiration, respiration in the presence of ADP indicative of the oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS), and maximum activity of the mitochondrial electron transport system (ETS) and cytochrome c oxidase (COX). Respiration was measured at normal (15°C), and elevated (27°C) temperatures. The results demonstrated a pronounced allometric increase in both proton leak respiration and OXPHOS activity of mussel mitochondria. Mussels with faster growth (larger body size) showed an increase in OXPHOS rate, proton leak respiration rate, and ETS and COX activity (indicating an overall improved mitochondrial performance) and higher respiratory control ratio (indicating better mitochondrial coupling and potentially lower costs of mitochondrial maintenance at the same OXPHOS capacity) compared with slower growing (smaller) individuals. Our data show that the metabolic allometry at the organismal level cannot be directly explained by mitochondrial functioning.

Pulse dynamics in SESAM-free electrically pumped VECSEL.

Self-starting pulsed operation in an electrically pumped (EP) vertical-external-cavity surface-emitting-laser (VECSEL) without intracavity saturable absorber is demonstrated. A linear hemispherical cavity design, consisting of the EP-VECSEL chip and a 10% output-coupler, is used to obtain picosecond output pulses with energies of 2.8 pJ and pulse widths of 130 ps at a repetition rate of 1.97 GHz. A complete experimental analysis of the generated output pulse train and of the transition from continuous-wave to pulsed operation is presented. Numerical simulations based on a delay-differential-equation (DDE) model of mode-locked semiconductor lasers are used to reproduce the pulse dynamics and identify different laser operation regimes. From this, the measured single pulse operation is attributed to FM-type mode-locking. The pulse formation is explained by strong amplitude-phase coupling and spectral filtering inside the EP-VECSEL.

Highly reconfigurable hybrid laser based on an integrated nonlinear waveguide.

The ability of laser systems to emit different adjustable temporal pulse profiles and patterns is desirable for a broad range of applications. While passive mode-locking techniques have been widely employed for the realization of ultrafast laser pulses with mainly Gaussian or hyperbolic secant temporal profiles, the generation of versatile pulse shapes in a controllable way and from a single laser system remains a challenge. Here we show that a nonlinear amplifying loop mirror (NALM) laser with a bandwidth-limiting filter (in a nearly dispersion-free arrangement) and a short integrated nonlinear waveguide enables the realization and distinct control of multiple mode-locked pulsing regimes (e.g., Gaussian pulses, square waves, fast sinusoidal-like oscillations) with repetition rates that are variable from the fundamental (7.63 MHz) through its 205th harmonic (1.56 GHz). These dynamics are described by a newly developed and compact theoretical model, which well agrees with our experimental results. It attributes the control of emission regimes to the change of the NALM response function that is achieved by the adjustable interplay between the NALM amplification and the nonlinearity. In contrast to previous square wave emissions, we experimentally observed that an Ikeda instability was responsible for square wave generation. The presented approach enables laser systems that can be universally applied to various applications, e.g., spectroscopy, ultrafast signal processing and generation of non-classical light states.

Resonances between fundamental frequencies for lasers with large delayed feedbacks.

High-order frequency locking phenomena were recently observed using semiconductor lasers subject to large delayed feedbacks. Specifically, the relaxation oscillation (RO) frequency and a harmonic of the feedback-loop round-trip frequency coincided with the ratios 1:5 to 1:11. By analyzing the rate equations for the dynamical degrees of freedom in a laser subject to a delayed optoelectronic feedback, we show that the onset of a two-frequency train of pulses occurs through two successive bifurcations. While the first bifurcation is a primary Hopf bifurcation to the ROs, a secondary Hopf bifurcation leads to a two-frequency regime where a low frequency, proportional to the inverse of the delay, is resonant with the RO frequency. We derive an amplitude equation, valid near the first Hopf bifurcation point, and numerically observe the frequency locking. We mathematically explain this phenomenon by formulating a closed system of ordinary differential equations from our amplitude equation. Our findings motivate experiments with particular attention to the first two bifurcations. We observe experimentally (1) the frequency locking phenomenon as we pass the secondary bifurcation point and (2) the nearly constant slow period as the two-frequency oscillations grow in amplitude. Our results analytically confirm previous observations of frequency locking phenomena for lasers subject to a delayed optical feedback.

Class-A mode-locked lasers: Fundamental solutions.

We consider a delay differential equation (DDE) model for mode-locked operation in class-A semiconductor lasers containing both gain and absorber sections. The material processes are adiabatically eliminated as these are considered fast in comparison to the delay time for a long cavity device. We determine the steady states and analyze their bifurcations using DDE-BIFTOOL [Engelborghs et al., ACM Trans. Math. Software 28, 1 (2002)]. Multiple forms of coexistence, transformation, and hysteretic behavior of stable steady states and fundamental periodic regimes are discussed in bifurcation diagrams.