The risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy in patients with cancer-associated thrombosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: The optimal duration of anticoagulation in patients with active cancer and venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unknown. Current clinical guidelines advocate anticoagulant therapy for 3-6 months and to continue anticoagulant therapy for as long as the cancer is active. However, an adequate systematic review on the rate of recurrent VTE after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy has not been performed. Methods: For this systemic review and meta-analysis, we searched Embase.com, Medline (Ovid), Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar, from database inception to February 16, 2023, for studies on anticoagulant therapy in patients with cancer and the recurrence of venous thromboembolism after discontinuation of this therapy. We included randomised controlled trials and cohort studies published in English that reported on patients who met the following: cancer and a first VTE, completed at least 3 months of anticoagulant therapy, were followed after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy, and with symptomatic recurrent VTE as an outcome during follow-up. Study-level data were requested from study authors. The primary outcome was the rate of recurrent VTE after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy. A Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate the rate of recurrent VTE per 100 person-years for the pooled studies at different time intervals after discontinuation of anticoagulation therapy. We also calculated the cumulative VTE recurrence rate at different time intervals. Forest plots were mapped and the results were summarized by the median and 95% credible interval (CIs). This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021249060. Findings: Of 3856 studies identified in our search, 33 studies were identified for inclusion. After requesting study-level data, 14 studies involving 1922 patients with cancer-associated thrombosis were included. The pooled rate of recurrent VTE per 100 person-years after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy was 14.6 events (95% credible interval 6.5-22.8) in the first three months, decreasing to 1.1 events (95% CI 0.3-2.1) in year 2-3, and 2.2 events (95% CI 0.0-4.4) in year 3-5 after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy. The cumulative VTE recurrence rate was 28.3% (95% CI 15.6-39.6%) at 1 year; 31.1% (95% CI 16.5-43.8%) at 2 years; 31.9% (95% CI 16.8-45.0%) at 3 years; and 35.0% (95% CI 16.8-47.4%) at 5 years after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy. Interpretation: This meta-analysis demonstrates a high rate of recurrent VTE over time after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy in patients with cancer-associated thrombosis. Our results support the current clinical guidelines to continue anticoagulant therapy in patients with active cancer. Funding: Erasmus MC.

Accuracy and interrater agreement of death event adjudications by physician trainees: validation of the ISTH definition of pulmonary embolism-related death in an autopsy cohort.

BACKGROUND: We previously determined good agreement and high specificity of the International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH) definition of pulmonary embolism (PE)-related death among an expert central adjudication committee (CAC). CACs are often composed of experts in the corresponding research field. Involving physician trainees in CACs would allow investigators to divide the workload and foster trainees' research experience. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the accuracy of the ISTH definition of PE-related death for PE- versus non-PE-related deaths as confirmed by autopsy and its interrater agreement among physician trainees. METHODS: This retrospective autopsy cohort included all patients with PE-related deaths between January 2010 and July 2019 as well as patients who died in 2018 from a cause other than PE at the New York-Presbyterian Hospital. Based on premortem clinical summaries, two physician trainees independently determined the cause of death using the ISTH definition of PE-related death. We calculated the sensitivity and specificity of the ISTH definition to identify autopsy-confirmed PE-related death and its interrater agreement. RESULTS: Overall, 126 death events were adjudicated (median age, 68 years; 60 [48%] women), of which 29 (23%) were due to PE, as confirmed by autopsy. Sensitivity and specificity of the ISTH definition for autopsy-confirmed PE-related death was 48% (95% CI, 29-67) and 100% (95% CI, 96-100), respectively. Interrater reliability for PE-related death was good (percentage agreement, 93%; 95% CI, 87-96, Cohen's Kappa, 0.67; 95% CI, 44-85). CONCLUSION: Our findings are consistent with our previous validation study. They further support the use of the ISTH definition of PE-related death and revealed high agreement between adjudicators with varied experience.

Diagnostic management of acute pulmonary embolism: a prediction model based on a patient data meta-analysis.

AIMS: Risk stratification is used for decisions regarding need for imaging in patients with clinically suspected acute pulmonary embolism (PE). The aim was to develop a clinical prediction model that provides an individualized, accurate probability estimate for the presence of acute PE in patients with suspected disease based on readily available clinical items and D-dimer concentrations. METHODS AND RESULTS: An individual patient data meta-analysis was performed based on sixteen cross-sectional or prospective studies with data from 28 305 adult patients with clinically suspected PE from various clinical settings, including primary care, emergency care, hospitalized and nursing home patients. A multilevel logistic regression model was built and validated including ten a priori defined objective candidate predictors to predict objectively confirmed PE at baseline or venous thromboembolism (VTE) during follow-up of 30 to 90 days. Multiple imputation was used for missing data. Backward elimination was performed with a P-value <0.10. Discrimination (c-statistic with 95% confidence intervals [CI] and prediction intervals [PI]) and calibration (outcome:expected [O:E] ratio and calibration plot) were evaluated based on internal-external cross-validation. The accuracy of the model was subsequently compared with algorithms based on the Wells score and D-dimer testing. The final model included age (in years), sex, previous VTE, recent surgery or immobilization, haemoptysis, cancer, clinical signs of deep vein thrombosis, inpatient status, D-dimer (in µg/L), and an interaction term between age and D-dimer. The pooled c-statistic was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.85-0.89; 95% PI, 0.77-0.93) and overall calibration was very good (pooled O:E ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.87-1.14; 95% PI, 0.55-1.79). The model slightly overestimated VTE probability in the lower range of estimated probabilities. Discrimination of the current model in the validation data sets was better than that of the Wells score combined with a D-dimer threshold based on age (c-statistic 0.73; 95% CI, 0.70-0.75) or structured clinical pretest probability (c-statistic 0.79; 95% CI, 0.76-0.81). CONCLUSION: The present model provides an absolute, individualized probability of PE presence in a broad population of patients with suspected PE, with very good discrimination and calibration. Its clinical utility needs to be evaluated in a prospective management or impact study. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO ID 89366.

Accuracy of physicians' intuitive risk estimation in the diagnostic management of pulmonary embolism: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: In patients clinically suspected of having pulmonary embolism (PE), physicians often rely on intuitive estimation ("gestalt") of PE presence. Although shown to be predictive, gestalt is criticized for its assumed variation across physicians and lack of standardization. OBJECTIVES: To assess the diagnostic accuracy of gestalt in the diagnosis of PE and gain insight into its possible variation. METHODS: We performed an individual patient data meta-analysis including patients suspected of having PE. The primary outcome was diagnostic accuracy of gestalt for the diagnosis of PE, quantified as risk ratio (RR) between gestalt and PE based on 2-stage random-effect log-binomial meta-analysis regression as well as gestalts' sensitivity and specificity. The variability of these measures was explored across different health care settings, publication period, PE prevalence, patient subgroups (sex, heart failure, chronic lung disease, and items of the Wells score other than gestalt), and age. RESULTS: We analyzed 20 770 patients suspected of having PE from 16 original studies. The prevalence of PE in patients with and without a positive gestalt was 28.8% vs 9.1%, respectively. The overall RR was 3.02 (95% CI, 2.35-3.87), and the overall sensitivity and specificity were 74% (95% CI, 68%-79%) and 61% (95% CI, 53%-68%), respectively. Although variation was observed across individual studies (I2, 90.63%), the diagnostic accuracy was consistent across all subgroups and health care settings. CONCLUSION: A positive gestalt was associated with a 3-fold increased risk of PE in suspected patients. Although variation was observed across studies, the RR of gestalt was similar across prespecified subgroups and health care settings, exemplifying its diagnostic value for all patients suspected of having PE.

Definitions of fatal bleeding in clinical studies evaluating anticoagulant treatment for venous thromboembolism: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Fatal bleeding is a component of the primary safety outcome in most studies evaluating anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE), but a standardized definition for fatal bleeding is lacking. OBJECTIVES: To summarize definitions of fatal bleeding and describe the range of case-fatality rates of major bleeding in VTE studies. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, and CENTRAL databases were searched from January 2008 to July 2021 for prospective studies that enrolled patients with VTE and evaluated the efficacy/safety of anticoagulation for VTE treatment or included fatal or major bleeding as primary outcome. Two authors independently performed study selection and data extraction. The primary outcome was the definition of fatal bleeding. The secondary outcome was the case-fatality rate of major bleeding. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Of 4911 records identified, we included 132 articles representing 89 distinct studies. Twenty-seven (20%) articles and 7 of 89 (8%) studies reported a definition of fatal bleeding. Overall, we identified 3 different types of definitions that were either on the basis of a specific time interval between bleeding and death, bleeding location (intracranial) or clinical presentation (hemodynamic deterioration), or mainly relied on the judgment of the adjudication committee to determine the cause of death. The case-fatality rate of major bleeding ranged from 0 to 60% (median, 9.1%; interquartile range, 2.8%-18%). CONCLUSION: Less than 10% of studies assessing anticoagulant treatment for VTE reported a definition for fatal bleeding. The lack of a (standardized) definition for fatal bleeding may lead to inaccurate estimates of the risk of fatal bleeding, particularly when compared across studies.

Platelet RNA sequencing for cancer screening in patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Platelet RNA sequencing has been shown to accurately detect cancer in previous studies. OBJECTIVES: To compare the diagnostic accuracy of platelet RNA sequencing with standard-of-care limited cancer screening in patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE). METHODS: Patients aged ≥40 years with unprovoked VTE were recruited at 13 centers and followed for 12 months for cancer. Participants underwent standard-of-care limited cancer screening, and platelet RNA sequencing analysis was performed centrally at study end for cases and selected controls. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated, using the predefined primary positivity threshold of 0.54 for platelet RNA sequencing aiming at 86% test sensitivity, and an additional predefined threshold of 0.89 aiming at 99% test specificity. RESULTS: A total of 476 participants were enrolled, of whom 25 (5.3%) were diagnosed with cancer during 12-month follow-up. For each cancer patient, 3 cancer-free patients were randomly selected for the analysis. The sensitivity of limited screening was 72% (95% CI, 52-86) at a specificity of 91% (95% CI, 82-95). The area under the receiver operator characteristic for platelet RNA sequencing was 0.54 (95% CI, 0.41-0.66). At the primary positivity threshold, all patients had a positive test, for a sensitivity estimated at 100% (95% CI, 87-99) and a specificity of 8% (95% CI, 3.7-16.4). At the secondary threshold, sensitivity was 68% (95% CI, 48-83; p value compared with limited screening 0.71) at a specificity of 36% (95% CI, 26-47). CONCLUSION: Platelet RNA sequencing had poor diagnostic accuracy for detecting occult cancer in patients with unprovoked VTE with the current algorithm.

Case-fatality rate of major bleeding events in patients on dual antiplatelet therapy after percutaneous coronary intervention: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Assessment of the case-fatality rate (CFR) of major bleeding on dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) may improve balancing risks and benefits of different durations of DAPT following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Objectives: To determine the CFR of major bleeding in patients on DAPT after PCI and to compare rates among different durations of DAPT. Methods: Medline, Embase, and CENTRAL were searched from inception to August 2021 for randomized trials that reported fatal bleeding among patients who were randomized to ≥1 month of DAPT following PCI. Summary estimates for CFRs of major bleeding were calculated using the random-effects inverse-variance method. Statistical heterogeneity was evaluated using the I 2 statistic. Results: Of 2777 citations obtained by the search, 15 (48%) of 31 potentially eligible studies were excluded because fatal bleeding was not reported, leaving 16 studies that were included in the analysis. Overall, there were 823 major bleeding events including 91 fatal events in 48,884 patients who were assigned to receive DAPT during study follow-up. The CFR of major bleeding was 10.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.1-16.2; I 2 = 50%) in the entire study population, and 13.8% (95% CI, 6.5-27.1; I 2 = 28%), 11.2% (95% CI, 6.7-18.0; I 2 = 0%), and 5.8% (95% CI, 3.0-11.1; I 2 = 0%) in those on short-term (≤6 months; n = 16,553), standard-term (12 months; n = 19,453), and long-term DAPT (>12 months; n = 10,238), respectively. Conclusion: Fatal bleeding is not reported in many studies evaluating DAPT after PCI. The CFR of major bleeding on DAPT is substantial and may be higher in the first 12 months of DAPT than during long-term DAPT.

Case-fatality rate of major bleeding events in patients on dual antiplatelet therapy after percutaneous coronary intervention: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Assessment of the case-fatality rate (CFR) of major bleeding on dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) may improve balancing risks and benefits of different durations of DAPT following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). OBJECTIVES: To determine the CFR of major bleeding in patients on DAPT after PCI and to compare rates among different durations of DAPT. METHODS: Medline, Embase, and CENTRAL were searched from inception to August 2021 for randomized trials that reported fatal bleeding among patients who were randomized to ≥1 month of DAPT following PCI. Summary estimates for CFRs of major bleeding were calculated using the random-effects inverse-variance method. Statistical heterogeneity was evaluated using the I2 statistic. RESULTS: Of 2777 citations obtained by the search, 15 (48%) of 31 potentially eligible studies were excluded because fatal bleeding was not reported, leaving 16 studies that were included in the analysis. Overall, there were 823 major bleeding events including 91 fatal events in 48,884 patients who were assigned to receive DAPT during study follow-up. The CFR of major bleeding was 10.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.1­ 16.2; I2= 50%) in the entire study population, and 13.8% (95% CI, 6.5­27.1; I2= 28%), 11.2% (95% CI, 6.7­ 18.0; I2= 0%), and 5.8% (95% CI, 3.0­11.1; I2= 0%) in those on short-term (≤6 months; n= 16,553), standard-term (12 months; n= 19,453), and long-term DAPT (>12 months; n= 10,238), respectively. CONCLUSION: Fatal bleeding is not reported in many studies evaluating DAPT after PCI. The CFR of major bleeding on DAPT is substantial and may be higher in the first 12 months of DAPT than during long-term DAPT.

Ruling out pulmonary embolism across different healthcare settings: A systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The challenging clinical dilemma of detecting pulmonary embolism (PE) in suspected patients is encountered in a variety of healthcare settings. We hypothesized that the optimal diagnostic approach to detect these patients in terms of safety and efficiency depends on underlying PE prevalence, case mix, and physician experience, overall reflected by the type of setting where patients are initially assessed. The objective of this study was to assess the capability of ruling out PE by available diagnostic strategies across all possible settings. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a literature search (MEDLINE) followed by an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis (MA; 23 studies), including patients from self-referral emergency care (n = 12,612), primary healthcare clinics (n = 3,174), referred secondary care (n = 17,052), and hospitalized or nursing home patients (n = 2,410). Multilevel logistic regression was performed to evaluate diagnostic performance of the Wells and revised Geneva rules, both using fixed and adapted D-dimer thresholds to age or pretest probability (PTP), for the YEARS algorithm and for the Pulmonary Embolism Rule-out Criteria (PERC). All strategies were tested separately in each healthcare setting. Following studies done in this field, the primary diagnostic metrices estimated from the models were the "failure rate" of each strategy-i.e., the proportion of missed PE among patients categorized as "PE excluded" and "efficiency"-defined as the proportion of patients categorized as "PE excluded" among all patients. In self-referral emergency care, the PERC algorithm excludes PE in 21% of suspected patients at a failure rate of 1.12% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.74 to 1.70), whereas this increases to 6.01% (4.09 to 8.75) in referred patients to secondary care at an efficiency of 10%. In patients from primary healthcare and those referred to secondary care, strategies adjusting D-dimer to PTP are the most efficient (range: 43% to 62%) at a failure rate ranging between 0.25% and 3.06%, with higher failure rates observed in patients referred to secondary care. For this latter setting, strategies adjusting D-dimer to age are associated with a lower failure rate ranging between 0.65% and 0.81%, yet are also less efficient (range: 33% and 35%). For all strategies, failure rates are highest in hospitalized or nursing home patients, ranging between 1.68% and 5.13%, at an efficiency ranging between 15% and 30%. The main limitation of the primary analyses was that the diagnostic performance of each strategy was compared in different sets of studies since the availability of items used in each diagnostic strategy differed across included studies; however, sensitivity analyses suggested that the findings were robust. CONCLUSIONS: The capability of safely and efficiently ruling out PE of available diagnostic strategies differs for different healthcare settings. The findings of this IPD MA help in determining the optimum diagnostic strategies for ruling out PE per healthcare setting, balancing the trade-off between failure rate and efficiency of each strategy.

Association of Accuracy, Conclusions, and Reporting Completeness With Acceptance by Radiology Conferences and Journals.

BACKGROUND: Preferential publication of studies with positive findings can lead to overestimation of diagnostic test accuracy (i.e. publication bias). Understanding the contribution of the editorial process to publication bias could inform interventions to optimize the evidence guiding clinical decisions. PURPOSE/HYPOTHESIS: To evaluate whether accuracy estimates, abstract conclusion positivity, and completeness of abstract reporting are associated with acceptance to radiology conferences and journals. STUDY TYPE: Meta-research. POPULATION: Abstracts submitted to radiology conferences (European Society of Gastrointestinal and Abdominal Radiology (ESGAR) and International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine (ISMRM)) from 2008 to 2018 and manuscripts submitted to radiology journals (Radiology, Journal of Magnetic Resonance Imaging [JMRI]) from 2017 to 2018. Primary clinical studies evaluating sensitivity and specificity of a diagnostic imaging test in humans with available editorial decisions were included. ASSESSMENT: Primary variables (Youden's index [YI > 0.8 vs. <0.8], abstract conclusion positivity [positive vs. neutral/negative], number of reported items on the Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies [STARD] for Abstract guideline) and confounding variables (prospective vs. retrospective/unreported, sample size, study duration, interobserver agreement assessment, subspecialty, modality) were extracted. STATISTICAL TESTS: Multivariable logistic regression to obtain adjusted odds ratio (OR) as a measure of the association between the primary variables and acceptance by radiology conferences and journals; 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and P-values were obtained; the threshold for statistical significance was P < 0.05. RESULTS: A total of 1000 conference abstracts (500 ESGAR and 500 ISMRM) and 1000 journal manuscripts (505 Radiology and 495 JMRI) were included. Conference abstract acceptance was not significantly associated with YI (adjusted OR = 0.97 for YI > 0.8; CI = 0.70-1.35), conclusion positivity (OR = 1.21 for positive conclusions; CI = 0.75-1.90) or STARD for Abstracts adherence (OR = 0.96 per unit increase in reported items; CI = 0.82-1.18). Manuscripts with positive abstract conclusions were less likely to be accepted by radiology journals (OR = 0.45; CI = 0.24-0.86), while YI (OR = 0.85; CI = 0.56-1.29) and STARD for Abstracts adherence (OR = 1.06; CI = 0.87-1.30) showed no significant association. Positive conclusions were present in 86.7% of submitted conference abstracts and 90.2% of journal manuscripts. DATA CONCLUSION: Diagnostic test accuracy studies with positive findings were not preferentially accepted by the evaluated radiology conferences or journals. EVIDENCE LEVEL: 3 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 2.

Risk for Recurrent Venous Thromboembolism in Patients With Subsegmental Pulmonary Embolism Managed Without Anticoagulation : A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of pulmonary embolism has been increasing, but its case-fatality rate is decreasing, suggesting a lesser severity of illness. The clinical importance of patients with pulmonary embolism isolated to the subsegmental vessels is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine the rate of recurrent venous thromboembolism in patients with subsegmental pulmonary embolism managed without anticoagulation. DESIGN: Multicenter prospective cohort study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01455818). SETTING: Eighteen sites between February 2011 and February 2021. PATIENTS: Patients with isolated subsegmental pulmonary embolism. INTERVENTION: At diagnosis, patients underwent bilateral lower-extremity venous ultrasonography, which was repeated 1 week later if results were negative. Patients without deep venous thrombosis did not receive anticoagulant therapy. MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was recurrent venous thromboembolism during the 90-day follow-up period. RESULTS: Recruitment was stopped prematurely because the predefined stopping rule was met after 292 of a projected 300 patients were enrolled. Of the 266 patients included in the primary analysis, the primary outcome occurred in 8 patients, for a cumulative incidence of 3.1% (95% CI, 1.6% to 6.1%) over the 90-day follow-up. The incidence of recurrent venous thromboembolism was 2.1% (CI, 0.8% to 5.5%) and 5.7% (CI, 2.2% to 14.4%) over the 90-day follow-up in patients with single and multiple isolated subsegmental pulmonary embolism, respectively. No patients had a fatal recurrent pulmonary embolism. LIMITATION: The study was restricted to patients with low-risk subsegmental pulmonary embolism. CONCLUSION: Overall, patients with subsegmental pulmonary embolism who did not have proximal deep venous thrombosis had a higher-than-expected rate of recurrent venous thromboembolism. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada and French Ministry of Health Programme Hospitalier de Recherche Clinique.

Safety and Efficiency of Diagnostic Strategies for Ruling Out Pulmonary Embolism in Clinically Relevant Patient Subgroups : A Systematic Review and Individual-Patient Data Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: How diagnostic strategies for suspected pulmonary embolism (PE) perform in relevant patient subgroups defined by sex, age, cancer, and previous venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unknown. PURPOSE: To evaluate the safety and efficiency of the Wells and revised Geneva scores combined with fixed and adapted D-dimer thresholds, as well as the YEARS algorithm, for ruling out acute PE in these subgroups. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE from 1 January 1995 until 1 January 2021. STUDY SELECTION: 16 studies assessing at least 1 diagnostic strategy. DATA EXTRACTION: Individual-patient data from 20 553 patients. DATA SYNTHESIS: Safety was defined as the diagnostic failure rate (the predicted 3-month VTE incidence after exclusion of PE without imaging at baseline). Efficiency was defined as the proportion of individuals classified by the strategy as "PE considered excluded" without imaging tests. Across all strategies, efficiency was highest in patients younger than 40 years (47% to 68%) and lowest in patients aged 80 years or older (6.0% to 23%) or patients with cancer (9.6% to 26%). However, efficiency improved considerably in these subgroups when pretest probability-dependent D-dimer thresholds were applied. Predicted failure rates were highest for strategies with adapted D-dimer thresholds, with failure rates varying between 2% and 4% in the predefined patient subgroups. LIMITATIONS: Between-study differences in scoring predictor items and D-dimer assays, as well as the presence of differential verification bias, in particular for classifying fatal events and subsegmental PE cases, all of which may have led to an overestimation of the predicted failure rates of adapted D-dimer thresholds. CONCLUSION: Overall, all strategies showed acceptable safety, with pretest probability-dependent D-dimer thresholds having not only the highest efficiency but also the highest predicted failure rate. From an efficiency perspective, this individual-patient data meta-analysis supports application of adapted D-dimer thresholds. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Dutch Research Council. (PROSPERO: CRD42018089366).

The prognostic value of respiratory symptoms and performance status in ambulatory cancer patients and unsuspected pulmonary embolism; analysis of an international, prospective, observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Optimal risk stratification of unsuspected pulmonary embolism (UPE) in ambulatory cancer patients (ACPs) remains unclear. Existing clinical predictive rules (CPRs) are derived from retrospective databases and have limitations. The UPE registry is a prospective international registry with pre-specified characteristics of ACPs with a recent UPE. The aim of this study was to assess the utility of risk factors captured in the UPE registry in predicting proximate (30-, 90- and 180-day) mortality and how they performed when applied to an existing CPR. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate risk factors for proximate mortality, overall survival, recurrent venous thromboembolism and major bleeding, in the patients enrolled in the UPE registry cohort. METHODS: Data from the 695 ACPs in this registry were subjected to multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify predictors independently associated with proximate mortality and overall survival. The most consistent predictors were applied to the Hull CPR, an existing 5-point prediction rule. RESULTS: The most consistent predictors of mortality were patient-reported respiratory symptoms within 14 days before, and ECOG performance status at the time of UPE. These predictors applied to the Hull-CPR produced a consistent correlation with proximate mortality and overall survival (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.70 [95% CI 0.63, 077], AUC = 0.65 [95% CI 0.60, 070], AUC = 0.64 [95% CI 0.59, 068], and AUC = 0.61, 95% CI 0.57, 0.65, respectively). CONCLUSION: In ACPs with UPE, ECOG performance status logged contemporaneously to the UPE diagnosis and respiratory symptoms prior to UPE diagnosis can stratify mortality risk. When applied to the HULL-CPR these risk predictors confirmed the risk stratification clusters of low-intermediate and high-risk for proximate mortality as seen in the original derivation cohort.

ISTH definition of pulmonary embolism-related death and classification of the cause of death in venous thromboembolism studies: Validation in an autopsy cohort.

BACKGROUND: The International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH)'s Scientific and Standardization Committee (SSC) recently proposed a definition of pulmonary embolism (PE)-related death. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the accuracy and interrater reliability of the ISTH definition of PE-related death in an autopsy cohort. METHODS: We reviewed reports of 1064 consecutive adult autopsies that were performed at the NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital from January 2010 until July 2019. We included all patients with autopsy-confirmed PE-related death (cases) during that time frame, combined with patients who died in 2018 from a cause other than PE (controls). Based on clinical summaries, two adjudicators independently adjudicated the cause of death in each patient using the ISTH classification for the cause of death, blinded to the case/control status and ratio. The primary outcome was autopsy-confirmed PE-related death. We determined the sensitivity and specificity of the ISTH definition to identify autopsy-confirmed PE-related death, and its interrater reliability using the percentage agreement and Cohen's kappa. RESULTS: A total of 126 patients who underwent autopsy were included in the analysis (median age, 68 years [range, 21-94], 60 [48%] women), of which 29 (23%) had died from PE as confirmed by autopsy. The ISTH definition's sensitivity and specificity for autopsy-confirmed PE-related death were 45% (95% CI, 26-64) and 99% (95% CI, 94-100), respectively. Interrater reliability for PE-related death was substantial (percentage agreement, 94% [95% CI, 89-97]; kappa, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.55-0.97]). CONCLUSION: Adjudication of the cause of death using the ISTH definition resulted in very high specificity, moderate sensitivity, and good interrater reliability for PE-related death.

Risk Assessment Models for Thrombosis and Anticoagulant-Related Bleeding in Ambulatory Cancer Patients.

Cancer patients have a high risk of developing venous thromboembolism and arterial thrombosis, along with an increased risk of anticoagulant-related bleeding with primary and secondary prophylaxis of cancer-associated thrombosis. Decisions on initiation, dosing, and duration of anticoagulant therapy for prevention and treatment of cancer-associated thrombosis are challenging, as clinicians have to balance patients' individual risk of (recurrent) thrombosis against the risk of bleeding complications. For this purpose, several dedicated risk assessment models for venous thromboembolism in cancer patients have been suggested. However, most of these scores perform poorly and have received limited to no validation. For bleeding and arterial thrombosis, no risk scores have been developed specifically for cancer patients, and treatment decisions remain based on clinical gestalt and rough and unstructured estimation of the risks. The aims of this review are to summarize the characteristics and performance of risk assessment scores for (recurrent) venous thromboembolism and discuss available data on risk assessment for bleeding and arterial thrombosis in the cancer population. This summary can help clinicians in daily practice to make a balanced decision when considering the use of risk assessment models for cancer-associated venous thromboembolism. Future research attempts should aim at improving risk assessment for arterial thrombosis and anticoagulant-related bleeding in cancer patients.

Definition of pulmonary embolism-related death and classification of the cause of death in venous thromboembolism studies: Communication from the SSC of the ISTH.

Pulmonary embolism (PE)-related death is often a component of the primary outcome in venous thromboembolism (VTE) clinical studies. Definitions for PE-related death vary widely, which may lead to biased risk estimates of clinical outcomes, thereby affecting both internal and external validity of study results. We here provide a standardized definition of PE-related death and propose guidance for classification and reporting of the cause of death for clinical studies in VTE. The proposal was developed in a four-step process, including a systematic review of definitions used for PE-related death in previous studies, two subsequent surveys with VTE experts, and meetings held within the Scientific and Standardization Committee (SSC) working group until consensus on the proposal was reached. The proposed classification comprises three categories: Category A: PE-related death, category B: undetermined cause of death, and category C: cause of death other than PE. Category A includes A1: autopsy-confirmed PE in the absence of another more likely cause of death; A2: objectively confirmed PE before death in the absence of another more likely cause of death; and A3: PE is not objectively confirmed, but is most likely the main cause of death. Category B includes B1: cause of death is undetermined, despite available information; and B2: insufficient clinical information available to determine the cause of death. The use of the proposed definition will hopefully improve the accuracy of study outcomes, between-study comparisons, meta-analyses, and validity of future clinical VTE studies.

Development of a standardized definition of pulmonary embolism-related death: A cross-sectional survey of international thrombosis experts.

INTRODUCTION: Pulmonary embolism (PE)-related death is often part of the primary outcome in venous thromboembolism (VTE) studies. The Scientific and Standardization Committee (SSC) of the International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis developed a definition for PE-related death and classification of the cause of death. The present survey evaluated a preliminary version of this definition and classification. METHODS: Sixty-nine VTE experts from nine countries were invited for a cross-sectional online survey on January 15, 2019, including multiple-choice and open-ended questions on a seven-subcategory classification of the cause of death. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the results; qualitative comments were summarized. RESULTS: Forty of 69 (58%) invitees completed the survey. All respondents agreed that guidance on classification of the cause of death in VTE studies is required. There was high agreement on the proposal (median overall score, 6; interquartile range, 6-7; scale from 1 [poor] to 7 [excellent]). All respondents approved the wording and content of the seven subcategories, except for one disagreeing vote for two subcategories (A3: "PE is not objectively confirmed, but is most likely the main cause of death" and C1: "Another cause of death is more likely than PE but has not been objectively confirmed"). Suggestions for improvement mainly concerned the extensiveness of the criteria and clinical situations described to define the cause of death. CONCLUSION: Acceptance of the proposal was excellent. Suggestions for improvement were incorporated in the SSC communication on the definition of PE-related death and classification of the cause of death in VTE studies.

Diagnostic accuracy of three ultrasonography strategies for deep vein thrombosis of the lower extremity: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Compression ultrasonography (CUS) is the first-line imaging test in the diagnostic management of suspected deep vein thrombosis (DVT) of the lower extremity. Three CUS strategies are used in clinical practice. However, their relative diagnostic accuracy is uncertain. OBJECTIVES: This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to summarize and compare the diagnostic accuracy of single limited, serial limited, and whole-leg CUS for DVT. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, and CENTRAL were searched from January 1st, 1989 to July 23rd, 2019 for studies assessing at least one of the CUS strategies in adults with suspected DVT of the lower extremity, using clinical follow-up for venous thromboembolism or contrast venography as the reference standard. Study selection, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment were performed in duplicate by independent authors. A bivariate random-effects model was used to compute diagnostic accuracy summary estimates. RESULTS: Forty studies (n = 21,250) were included. The venous thromboembolic event rate after a negative CUS (failure rate) of single limited (1.4%; 95% CI, 0.83-2.5), serial limited (1.9%; 95% CI, 1.4-2.5), and whole-leg CUS (1.0%; 95% CI, 0.6-1.6) did not differ significantly. The proportion of positive results was lower with single limited CUS, as was DVT prevalence in this group. CONCLUSIONS: The failure rates of single limited, serial limited, and whole-leg CUS for DVT appeared to be quite comparable. The relative failure rate of single limited CUS remains uncertain, as the DVT prevalence was lower in these studies. Therefore, this CUS strategy may only be safe in a selected group of low-risk patients. Preference for one of the strategies may be based on pretest probability assessment, feasibility, expertise, and perceived clinical relevance of isolated distal DVT.

Publication bias in diagnostic imaging: conference abstracts with positive conclusions are more likely to be published.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether imaging diagnostic test accuracy conference abstracts with positive conclusions or titles are more likely to reach full-text publication than those with negative (or neutral) conclusions or titles. METHODS: Diagnostic accuracy research abstracts were included if they were presented at the 2011 or 2012 Radiological Society of North America conference. Full-text publication status at 5 years post conference abstract submission was determined. Conclusion and title positivity of conference abstracts were extracted, as well as potential confounding factors. The associations of conclusion and title positivity with publication status at 5 years post conference abstract submission were assessed using a multivariable logistic regression model. Conditional odds ratios were calculated to express the strength of associations, adjusting for the confounders. RESULTS: In total, 282/400 (71%) of included conference abstracts reached full-text publication. A total of 246 out of 337 (74%) conference abstracts with positive conclusions resulted in full-text publications, compared with 26/48 (54%) with neutral conclusions and 5/15 (33%) with negative conclusions. In multivariable logistic regression, conclusion positivity was significantly associated with full-text publication (odds ratio 3.6; 95% CI 1.9-6.7 for conference abstracts with positive conclusions, compared with those with non-positive conclusions); this did not apply to title positivity (odds ratio 1.2; 95% CI 0.47-3.0). CONCLUSION: Imaging conference abstracts with positive conclusions were more likely to be published as full-text articles. Title positivity was not associated with publication. This preferential publication pattern may lead to an overrepresentation of positive studies in the literature. An overrepresentation of positive studies may contribute to inflated estimates of test accuracy and has the potential to adversely influence patient care. KEY POINTS: • Imaging diagnostic test accuracy conference abstracts with positive conclusions were more likely to be reported as full-text articles than those with non-positive conclusions. • The majority (75%) of imaging diagnostic test accuracy conference abstracts with positive conclusions were published, compared with only 53% and 33% with neutral and negative conclusions, respectively. • Conclusion positivity remained associated with the full-text publication of conference abstracts when controlling for multiple potential confounding variables.