Low risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission via fomite, even in cold-chain.

BACKGROUND: Countries continue to debate the need for decontamination of cold-chain food packaging to reduce possible SARS-CoV-2 fomite transmission among workers. While laboratory-based studies demonstrate persistence of SARS-CoV-2 on surfaces, the likelihood of fomite-mediated transmission under real-life conditions is uncertain. METHODS: Using a quantitative risk assessment model, we simulated in a frozen food packaging facility 1) SARS-CoV-2 fomite-mediated infection risks following worker exposure to contaminated plastic packaging; and 2) reductions in these risks attributed to masking, handwashing, and vaccination. FINDINGS: In a representative facility with no specific interventions, SARS-CoV-2 infection risk to a susceptible worker from contact with contaminated packaging was 2·8 × 10 -3 per 1h-period (95%CI: 6·9 × 10 -6 , 2·4 × 10 -2 ). Implementation of standard infection control measures, handwashing and masks (9·4 × 10 -6 risk per 1h-period, 95%CI: 2·3 × 10 -8 , 8·1 × 10 -5 ), substantially reduced risk (99·7%). Vaccination of the susceptible worker (two doses Pfizer/Moderna, vaccine effectiveness: 86-99%) combined with handwashing and masking reduced risk to less than 1·0 × 10 -6 . Simulating increased infectiousness/transmissibility of new variants (2-, 10-fold viral shedding) among a fully vaccinated workforce, handwashing and masks continued to mitigate risk (2·0 × 10 -6 -1·1 × 10 -5 risk per 1h-period). Decontamination of packaging in addition to these interventions reduced infection risks to below the 1·0 × 10 -6 risk threshold. INTERPRETATION: Fomite-mediated SARS-CoV-2 infection risks were very low under cold-chain conditions. Handwashing and masking provide significant protection to workers, especially when paired with vaccination. FUNDING: U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Controlling risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in essential workers of enclosed food manufacturing facilities.

The SARS-CoV-2 global pandemic poses significant health risks to workers who are essential to maintaining the food supply chain. Using a quantitative risk assessment model, this study characterized the impact of risk reduction strategies for controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission (droplet, aerosol, fomite-mediated) among front-line workers in a representative enclosed food manufacturing facility. We simulated: 1) individual and cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infection risks from close contact (droplet and aerosols at 1-3m), aerosol, and fomite-mediated exposures to a susceptible worker following exposure to an infected worker during an 8h-shift; and 2) the relative reduction in SARS-CoV-2 infection risk attributed to infection control interventions (physical distancing, mask use, ventilation, surface disinfection, hand hygiene). Without mitigation measures, the SARS-CoV-2 infection risk was largest for close contact (droplet and aerosol) at 1m (0.96, 95%CI: 0.67-1.0). In comparison, risk associated with fomite (0.26, 95%CI: 0.10-0.56) or aerosol exposure alone (0.05, 95%CI: 0.01-0.13) at 1m distance was substantially lower (73-95%). At 1m, droplet transmission predominated over aerosol and fomite-mediated transmission, however, this changed by 3m, with aerosols comprising the majority of the exposure dose. Increasing physical distancing reduced risk by 84% (1 to 2m) and 91% (1 to 3m). Universal mask use reduced infection risk by 52-88%, depending on mask type. Increasing ventilation (from 0.1 to 2-8 air changes/hour) resulted in risk reductions of 14-54% (1m) and 55-85% (2m). Combining these strategies, together with handwashing and surface disinfection, resulted in <1% infection risk. Current industry SARS-CoV-2 risk reduction strategies, particularly when bundled, provide significant protection to essential food workers. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Using mathematical modeling, we find that workers in enclosed food manufacturing facilities are at higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection from close contact transmission (exposure to large droplets and small aerosol particles) than fomite transmission. Thus, strategies protecting workers should prioritize close contact transmission pathways, such as physical distancing, universal mask use, and room air changes, with surface disinfection (reducing fomite transmission) and handwashing of secondary importance. Our work supports current international (EU-OSHA), domestic (FDA, OSHA), and food industry-standard guidance for managing COVID-19 transmission in essential workers in the food manufacturing sector. Although our model was designed for an indoor food manufacturing setting, it can be readily adapted to other indoor environments and infectious respiratory pathogens.

Estimating the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and the infection fatality ratio in light of waning antibodies.

Background: Serology tests can identify previous infections and facilitate estimation of the number of total infections. However, immunoglobulins targeting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been reported to wane below the detectable level of serological assays. We estimate the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection from serology studies, accounting for expected levels of antibody acquisition (seroconversion) and waning (seroreversion), and apply this framework using data from New York City (NYC) and Connecticut. Methods: We estimated time from seroconversion to seroreversion and infection fatality ratio (IFR) using mortality data from March-October 2020 and population-level cross-sectional seroprevalence data from April-August 2020 in NYC and Connecticut. We then estimated the daily seroprevalence and cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Findings: The estimated average time from seroconversion to seroreversion was 3-4 months. The estimated IFR was 1.1% (95% credible interval: 1.0-1.2%) in NYC and 1.4% (1.1-1.7%) in Connecticut. The estimated daily seroprevalence declined after a peak in the spring. The estimated cumulative incidence reached 26.8% (24.2-29.7%) and 8.8% (7.1-11.3%) at the end of September in NYC and Connecticut, higher than maximum seroprevalence measures (22.1% and 6.1%), respectively. Interpretation: The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection is underestimated using cross-sectional serology data without adjustment for waning antibodies. Our approach can help quantify the magnitude of underestimation and adjust estimates for waning antibodies. Funding: This study was supported by the US National Science Foundation and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.