ICU Staffing in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The last national estimates of US ICU physician staffing are 25 years old and lack information about interprofessional teams. RESEARCH QUESTION: How are US adult ICUs currently staffed? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey (May 4, 2022-February 2, 2023) of adult ICU clinicians (targeting nurse/physician leadership) contacted using 2020 American Hospital Association (AHA) database information and, secondarily, through professional organizations. The survey included questions about interprofessional ICU staffing availability and roles at steady state (pre-COVID-19). We linked survey data to hospital data in the AHA database to create weighted national estimates by extrapolating ICU staffing data to nonrespondent hospitals based on hospital characteristics. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 596 adult ICUs (response rates: AHA contacts: 2.1%; professional organizations: unknown) with geographic diversity and size variability (median, 20 beds; interquartile range, 12-25); most cared for mixed populations (414 [69.5%]), yet medical (55 [9.2%]), surgical (70 [11.7%]), and specialty (57 [9.6%]) ICUs were well represented. A total of 554 (93.0%) had intensivists available, with intensivists covering all patients in 75.6% of these and onsite 24 h/d in one-half (53.3% weekdays; 51.8% weekends). Of all ICUs, 69.8% had physicians-in-training and 77.7% had nurse practitioners/physician assistants. For patients on mechanical ventilation, nurse to patient ratios were 1:2 in 89.6% of ICUs. Clinical pharmacists were available in 92.6%, and respiratory therapists were available in 98.8%. We estimated 85.1% (95% CI, 85.7%-84.5%) of hospitals nationally had ICUs with intensivists, 51.6% (95% CI, 50.6%-52.5%) had physicians-in-training, 72.1% (95% CI, 71.3%-72.9%) had nurse practitioners/physician assistants, 98.5% (95% CI, 98.4%-98.7%) had respiratory therapists, and 86.9% (95% CI, 86.4%-87.4%) had clinical pharmacists. For patients on mechanical ventilation, 86.4% (95% CI, 85.8%-87.0%) used 1:2 nurses/patients. INTERPRETATION: We found that intensivist presence in adult US ICUs has greatly increased over 25 years. Intensivists, respiratory therapists, and clinical pharmacists are commonly available, and each nurse usually provides care for two patients on mechanical ventilation. However, team composition and workload vary.

Prospective Evaluation of a Dynamic Acuity Score for Regularly Assessing a Critically Ill Patient's Risk of Mortality.

OBJECTIVE: Predictive models developed for use in ICUs have been based on retrospectively collected data, which does not take into account the challenges associated with live, clinical data. This study sought to determine if a previously constructed predictive model of ICU mortality (ViSIG) is robust when using data collected prospectively in near real-time. DESIGN: Prospectively collected data were aggregated and transformed to evaluate a previously developed rolling predictor of ICU mortality. SETTING: Five adult ICUs at Robert Wood Johnson-Barnabas University Hospital and one adult ICU at Stamford Hospital. PATIENTS: One thousand eight hundred and ten admissions from August to December 2020. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The ViSIG Score, comprised of severity weights for heart rate, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, mean arterial pressure, mechanical ventilation, and values for OBS Medical's Visensia Index. This information was collected prospectively, whereas data on discharge disposition was collected retrospectively to measure the ViSIG Score's accuracy. The distribution of patients' maximum ViSIG Score was compared with ICU mortality rate, and cut points determined where changes in mortality probability were greatest. The ViSIG Score was validated on new admissions. The ViSIG Score was able to stratify patients into three groups: 0-37 (low risk), 38-58 (moderate risk), and 59-100 (high risk), with mortality of 1.7%, 12.0%, and 39.8%, respectively ( p < 0.001). The sensitivity and specificity of the model to predict mortality for the high-risk group were 51% and 91%. Performance on the validation dataset remained high. There were similar increases across risk groups for length of stay, estimated costs, and readmission. CONCLUSIONS: Using prospectively collected data, the ViSIG Score produced risk groups for mortality with good sensitivity and excellent specificity. A future study will evaluate making the ViSIG Score visible to clinicians to determine whether this metric can influence clinician behavior to reduce adverse outcomes.

A review of early warning systems for prompt detection of patients at risk for clinical decline.

Early Warning Scores (EWS) are a composite evaluation of a patient's basic physiology, changes of which are the first indicators of clinical decline and are used to prompt further patient assessment and when indicated intervention. These are sometimes referred to as "track and triggers systems" with tracking meant to denote periodic observation of physiology and trigger being a predetermined response criteria. This review article examines the most widely used EWS, with special attention paid to those used in military and trauma populations.The earliest EWS is the Modified Early Earning Score (MEWS). In MEWS, points are allocated to vital signs based on their degree of abnormality, and summed to yield an aggregate score. A score above a threshold would elicit a clinical response such as a rapid response team. Modified Early Earning Score was subsequently followed up with the United Kingdom's National Early Warning Score, the electronic cardiac arrest triage score, and the 10 Signs of Vitality score, among others.Severity of illness indicators have been in military and civilian trauma populations, such as the Revised Trauma Score, Injury Severity Score, and Trauma and Injury Severity. The sequential organ failure assessment score and its attenuated version quick sequential organ failure assessment were developed to aggressively identify patients near septic shock.Effective EWS have certain characteristics. First, they should accurately capture vital signs information. Second, almost all data should be derived electronically rather than manually. Third, the measurements should take into consideration multiple organ systems. Finally, information that goes into an EWS must be captured in a timely manner. Future trends include the use of machine learning to detect subtle changes in physiology and the inclusion of data from biomarkers. As EWS improve, they will be more broadly used in both military and civilian environments. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Review article, level I.

The Impact of Mortality on Total Costs Within the ICU.

OBJECTIVES: The high cost of critical care has engendered research into identifying influential factors. However, existing studies have not considered patient vital status at ICU discharge. This study sought to determine the effect of mortality upon the total cost of an ICU stay. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Twenty-six ICUs at 13 hospitals in the United States. PATIENTS: 58,344 admissions from January 1, 2012, to June 30, 2016, obtained from a commercial ICU database. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The median observed cost of a unit stay was $9,619 (mean = $16,353). A multivariable regression model was developed on the log of total costs for a unit stay, using severity of illness, unit admitting diagnosis, mortality in the unit, daily unit occupancy (occupying a bed at midnight), and length of mechanical ventilation. This model had an r of 0.67 and a median difference between observed and expected costs of $437. The first few days of care and the first day receiving mechanical ventilation had the largest effect on total costs. Patients dying before unit discharge had 12.4% greater costs than survivors (p < 0.01; 99% CI = 9.3-15.5%) after multivariable adjustment. This effect was most pronounced for patients with an extended ICU stay who were receiving mechanical ventilation. CONCLUSIONS: While the largest drivers of ICU costs at the patient level are day 1 room occupancy and day 1 mechanical ventilation, mortality before unit discharge is associated with substantially higher costs. The increase was most evident for patients with an extended ICU stay who were receiving mechanical ventilation. Studies evaluating costs among ICUs need to take mortality into account.

Cumulative Probability and Time to Reintubation in U.S. ICUs.

OBJECTIVE: Reintubation after liberation from mechanical ventilation is viewed as an adverse event in ICUs. We sought to describe the frequency of reintubations across U.S. ICUs and to propose a standard, appropriate time cutoff for reporting of reintubation events. DESIGN AND SETTING: We conducted a cohort study using data from the Project IMPACT database of 185 diverse ICUs in the United States. PATIENTS: We included patients who received mechanical ventilation and excluded patients who received a tracheostomy, had a do-not-resuscitate order placed, or died prior to first extubation. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We assessed the percentage of patients extubated who were reintubated; the cumulative probability of reintubation, with death and do-not-resuscitate orders after extubation modeled as competing risks, and time to reintubation. Among 98,367 patients who received mechanical ventilation without death or tracheostomy prior to extubation, 9,907 (10.1%) were reintubated, with a cumulative probability of 10.0%. Median time to reintubation was 15 hours (interquartile range, 2-45 hr). Of patients who required reintubation in the ICU, 90% did so within the first 96 hours after initial extubation; this was consistent across various patient subtypes (89.3% for electives surgical patients up to 94.8% for trauma patients) and ICU subtypes (88.6% for cardiothoracic ICUs to 93.5% for medical ICUs). CONCLUSIONS: The reintubation rate for ICU patients liberated from mechanical ventilation in U.S. ICUs is approximately 10%. We propose a time cutoff of 96 hours for reintubation definitions and benchmarking efforts, as it captures 90% of ICU reintubation events. Reintubation rates can be reported as simple percentages, without regard for deaths or changes in goals of care that might occur.

Comparing Time-Fixed Mortality Prediction Models and Their Effect on ICU Performance Metrics Using the Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3.

OBJECTIVES: To examine ICU performance based on the Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 using 30-day, 90-day, or 180-day mortality as outcome measures and compare results with 30-day mortality as reference. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of ICU admissions from 2010 to 2014. SETTING: Sixty-three Swedish ICUs that submitted data to the Swedish Intensive Care Registry. PATIENTS: The development cohort was first admissions to ICU during 2011-2012 (n = 53,546), and the validation cohort was first admissions to ICU during 2013-2014 (n = 57,729). INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Logistic regression was used to develop predictive models based on a first level recalibration of the original Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 model but with 30-day, 90-day, or 180-day mortality as measures of outcome. Discrimination and calibration were excellent for the development dataset. Validation in the more recent 2013-2014 database showed good discrimination (C-statistic: 0.85, 0.84, and 0.83 for the 30-, 90-, and 180-d models, respectively), and good calibration (standardized mortality ratio: 0.99, 0.99, and 1.00; Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit H-statistic: 66.4, 63.7, and 81.4 for the 30-, 90-, and 180-d models, respectively). There were modest changes in an ICU's standardized mortality ratio grouping (< 1.00, not significant, > 1.00) when follow-up was extended from 30 to 90 days and 180 days, respectively; about 11-13% of all ICUs. CONCLUSIONS: The recalibrated Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 hospital outcome prediction model performed well on long-term outcomes. Evaluation of ICU performance using standardized mortality ratio was only modestly sensitive to the follow-up time. Our results suggest that 30-day mortality may be a good benchmark of ICU performance. However, the duration of follow-up must balance between what is most relevant for patients, most affected by ICU care, least affected by administrative policies and practically feasible for caregivers.

Variations in Case-Mix-Adjusted Duration of Mechanical Ventilation Among ICUs.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a model that predicts the duration of mechanical ventilation and then to use this model to compare observed versus expected duration of mechanical ventilation across ICUs. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis. SETTING: Eighty-six eligible ICUs at 48 U.S. hospitals. PATIENTS: ICU patients receiving mechanical ventilation on day 1 (n = 56,336) admitted from January 2013 to September 2014. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We developed and validated a multivariable logistic regression model for predicting duration of mechanical ventilation using ICU day 1 patient characteristics. Mean observed minus expected duration of mechanical ventilation was then obtained across patients and for each ICU. The accuracy of the model was assessed using R. We defined better performing units as ICUs that had an observed minus expected duration of mechanical ventilation less than -0.5 days and a p value of less than 0.01; and poorer performing units as ICUs with an observed minus expected duration of mechanical ventilation greater than +0.5 days and a p value of less than 0.01. The factors accounting for the majority of the model's explanatory power were diagnosis (71%) and physiologic abnormalities (24%). For individual patients, the difference between observed and mean predicted duration of mechanical ventilation was 3.3 hours (95% CI, 2.8-3.9) with R equal to 21.6%. The mean observed minus expected duration of mechanical ventilation across ICUs was 3.8 hours (95% CI, 2.1-5.5), with R equal to 69.9%. Among the 86 ICUs, 66 (76.7%) had an observed mean mechanical ventilation duration that was within 0.5 days of predicted. Five ICUs had significantly (p < 0.01) poorer performance (observed minus expected duration of mechanical ventilation, > 0.5 d) and 14 ICUs significantly (p < 0.01) better performance (observed minus expected duration of mechanical ventilation, < -0.5 d). CONCLUSIONS: Comparison of observed and case-mix-adjusted predicted duration of mechanical ventilation can accurately assess and compare duration of mechanical ventilation across ICUs, but cannot accurately predict an individual patient's mechanical ventilation duration. There are substantial differences in duration of mechanical ventilation across ICU and their association with unit practices and processes of care warrants examination.

Utilizing electronic health records to predict acute kidney injury risk and outcomes: workgroup statements from the 15(th) ADQI Consensus Conference.

The data contained within the electronic health record (EHR) is "big" from the standpoint of volume, velocity, and variety. These circumstances and the pervasive trend towards EHR adoption have sparked interest in applying big data predictive analytic techniques to EHR data. Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a condition well suited to prediction and risk forecasting; not only does the consensus definition for AKI allow temporal anchoring of events, but no treatments exist once AKI develops, underscoring the importance of early identification and prevention. The Acute Dialysis Quality Initiative (ADQI) convened a group of key opinion leaders and stakeholders to consider how best to approach AKI research and care in the "Big Data" era. This manuscript addresses the core elements of AKI risk prediction and outlines potential pathways and processes. We describe AKI prediction targets, feature selection, model development, and data display.

Les données figurant dans les dossiers médicaux électroniques (DMÉ) sont considérables, tant au point de vue du volume que du débit ou de la variété. Ces trois caractéristiques et la tendance générale à adopter les DMÉ ont soulevé un intérêt pour appliquer les techniques d'analyse prédictive des mégadonnées aux données contenues dans les dossiers médicaux électroniques. L'insuffisance rénale aiguë (IRA) est une maladie qui convient parfaitement à une méthode de prévision et de prévention des risques: non seulement la définition acceptée de cette affection permet-elle un ancrage temporel des événements ; mais il n'existe aucun traitement une fois que la maladie est déclarée, ce qui montre l'importance d'une détection précoce. L'Acute Dialysis Quality Initiative (ADQI) a convoqué un groupe de travail constitué de leaders d'opinion et autres intervenants du milieu pour se pencher sur la meilleure façon d'approcher la recherche et les soins offerts aux patients atteints d'IRA en cette ère de mégadonnées. Le présent article traite des éléments centraux de la prévention des risques et en expose les procédures potentielles. Nous y décrivons les cibles de prévention de l'IRA, la sélection des paramètres, l'élaboration des modèles et l'affichage des données.