The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intrusions of warm and moist air, can effectively drive weather extremes over the Arctic and trigger subsequent impact on sea ice and climate. What controls the observed multi-decadal Arctic AR trends remains unclear. Here, using multiple sources of observations and model experiments, we find that, contrary to the uniform positive trend in climate simulations, the observed Arctic AR frequency increases by twice as much over the Atlantic sector compared to the Pacific sector in 1981-2021. This discrepancy can be reconciled by the observed positive-to-negative phase shift of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the negative-to-positive phase shift of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which increase and reduce Arctic ARs over the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, respectively. Removing the influence of the IPO and AMO can reduce the projection uncertainties in near-future Arctic AR trends by about 24%, which is important for constraining projection of Arctic warming and the timing of an ice-free Arctic.

Implication of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on compound precipitation and temperature extremes in Africa.

Three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models that simulated the G4 experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) were used to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on combined temperature and precipitation extremes in Africa that can have greater negative impacts on human and the environment than individual rainfall or temperature extremes. The examined compound extremes included the dry (Rwarm׀dry and Rcold׀dry) and wet (Rwarm׀wet and Rcold׀wet) modes assessed during the injection (SAI, 2050-2069) and post-injection (postSAI, 2070-2089) periods compared with the historical period (1986-2005). We found a significant projected change in the occurrence of both wet and dry modes during SAI and postSAI related to the historical period. The magnitude and sign of this change depend on the season and the geographical location. During the SAI and postSAI, the wet (Rwarm׀wet and Rcold׀wet) modes are projected to be significantly lower while the dry modes are noted to increase in a large part of African continent depending on the season and the geographical location and may consequently leads to an increase of the droughts prone areas. The termination effect is noted to reduce the occurrence of dry modes, which may reduce the potential negative effects of the injection after halting. As the effect may vary from one region to another and according to the season, it suggested assessing the key sector impacts of SAI. Thus, this change in dry modes due to SAI could affect all activities which depend on water resources such as water supply, agriculture and food production, energy demand, and production with adverse effects on health, security, and sustainable development, but this needs to be assessed and quantified at regional scales.

Response of the Indian summer monsoon to global warming, solar geoengineering and its termination.

The response of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) to global warming, solar geoengineering and its termination is examined using the multi-model mean of seven global climate model simulations from G2 experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. Under the global warming scenario, land-ocean temperature contrasts and low-level monsoon circulation progressively strengthen accompanied by enhanced precipitation over the Indian subcontinent. Notably, in the solar geoengineered scenario, marginal surface cooling is projected over the majority of the ISM region, and there is strengthening of both upper and lower level circulation. However, preferential precipitation near Western Ghats leads to dry bias over majority of Indian land. Upon the termination of the geoengineering, the climatic conditions-temperature, precipitation, winds and moisture would abruptly change to what it would have been under the global warming scenario. Thus, this may be important to note that such changes may need attention for the future mitigation and adaptation purposes if solar geoengineering is required to implement in future.

Joint emulation of Earth System Model temperature-precipitation realizations with internal variability and space-time and cross-variable correlation: fldgen v2.0 software description.

Earth System Models (ESMs) are excellent tools for quantifying many aspects of future climate dynamics but are too computationally expensive to produce large collections of scenarios for downstream users of ESM data. In particular, many researchers focused on the impacts of climate change require large collections of ESM runs to rigorously study the impacts to both human and natural systems of low-frequency high-importance events, such as multi-year droughts. Climate model emulators provide an effective mechanism for filling this gap, reproducing many aspects of ESMs rapidly but with lower precision. The fldgen v1.0 R package quickly generates thousands of realizations of gridded temperature fields by randomizing the residuals of pattern scaling temperature output from any single ESM, retaining the spatial and temporal variance and covariance structures of the input data at a low computational cost. The fldgen v2.0 R package described here extends this capability to produce joint realizations of multiple variables, with a focus on temperature and precipitation in an open source software package available for community use (https://github.com/jgcri/fldgen). This substantially improves the fldgen package by removing the requirement that the ESM variables be normally distributed, and will enable researchers to quickly generate covarying temperature and precipitation data that are synthetic but faithful to the characteristics of the original ESM.

Mission-driven research for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering.

The last decade has seen broad exploratory research into stratospheric aerosol (SA) geoengineering, motivated by concern that reducing greenhouse gas emissions may be insufficient to avoid significant impacts from climate change. Based on this research, it is plausible that a limited deployment of SA geoengineering, provided it is used in addition to cutting emissions, could reduce many climate risks for most people. However, "plausible" is an insufficient basis on which to support future decisions. Developing the necessary knowledge requires a transition toward mission-driven research that has the explicit goal of supporting informed decisions. We highlight two important observations that follow from considering such a comprehensive, prioritized natural-science research effort. First, while field experiments may eventually be needed to reduce some of the uncertainties, we expect that the next phase of research will continue to be primarily model-based, with one outcome being to assess and prioritize which uncertainties need to be reduced (and, as a corollary, which field experiments can reduce those uncertainties). Second, we anticipate a clear separation in scale and character between small-scale experimental research to resolve specific process uncertainties and global-scale activities. We argue that the latter, even if the radiative forcing is negligible, should more appropriately be considered after a decision regarding whether and how to deploy SA geoengineering, rather than within the scope of "research" activities.

Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering.

Devastating floods due to Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However, the frequency of the most intense storms is likely to increase with rises in sea surface temperatures. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane Main Development Region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may mitigate hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using eight earth system model simulations of climate under the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Global mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those temperature increases in the RCP4.5. However, sulfate injection would have to double (to nearly 10 teragrams of SO2 per year) between 2020 and 2070 to balance the RCP4.5, approximately the equivalent of a 1991 Pinatubo eruption every 2 y, with consequent implications for stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent generalized extreme value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges and observed temperatures since 1923. The number of storm surge events as big as the one caused by the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this reduction is only marginally statistically significant. Nevertheless, when sea level rise differences in 2070 between the RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored into coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5-y events and about halved for 50-y surges.

Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming.

Since the winter of 2013-2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)--in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns.

Process-model simulations of cloud albedo enhancement by aerosols in the Arctic.

A cloud-resolving model is used to simulate the effectiveness of Arctic marine cloud brightening via injection of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), either through geoengineering or other increased sources of Arctic aerosols. An updated cloud microphysical scheme is employed, with prognostic CCN and cloud particle numbers in both liquid and mixed-phase marine low clouds. Injection of CCN into the marine boundary layer can delay the collapse of the boundary layer and increase low-cloud albedo. Albedo increases are stronger for pure liquid clouds than mixed-phase clouds. Liquid precipitation can be suppressed by CCN injection, whereas ice precipitation (snow) is affected less; thus, the effectiveness of brightening mixed-phase clouds is lower than for liquid-only clouds. CCN injection into a clean regime results in a greater albedo increase than injection into a polluted regime, consistent with current knowledge about aerosol-cloud interactions. Unlike previous studies investigating warm clouds, dynamical changes in circulation owing to precipitation changes are small. According to these results, which are dependent upon the representation of ice nucleation processes in the employed microphysical scheme, Arctic geoengineering is unlikely to be effective as the sole means of altering the global radiation budget but could have substantial local radiative effects.