Key performance indicators of COVID-19 contact tracing in Belgium from September 2020 to December 2021.

The goal of tracing, testing, and quarantining contacts of infected individuals is to contain the spread of infectious diseases, a strategy widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, limited research exists on the effectiveness of contact tracing, especially with regard to key performance indicators (KPIs), such as the proportion of cases arising from previously identified contacts. In our study, we analyzed contact tracing data from Belgium collected between September 2020 and December 2021 to assess the impact of contact tracing on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and understand its characteristics. Among confirmed cases involved in contact tracing in the Flemish and Brussels-Capital regions, 19.1% were previously identified as close contacts and were aware of prior exposure. These cases, referred to as 'known' to contact tracing operators, reported on average fewer close contacts compared to newly identified individuals (0.80 versus 1.05), resulting in fewer secondary cases (0.23 versus 0.28). Additionally, we calculated the secondary attack rate, representing infections per contact, which was on average lower for the 'known' cases (0.22 versus 0.25) between December 2020 and August 2021. These findings indicate the effectiveness of contact tracing in Belgium in reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Although we were unable to quantify the exact number of prevented cases, our findings emphasize the importance of contact tracing as a public health measure. In addition, contact tracing data provide indications of potential shifts in transmission patterns among different age groups associated with emerging variants of concern and increasing vaccination rates.

Reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in a primary school using epidemiological and genomic data.

Mathematical modelling studies have shown that repetitive screening can be used to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission in primary schools while keeping schools open. However, not much is known about how transmission progresses within schools and whether there is a risk of importation to households. During the academic year 2020-2021, a prospective surveillance study using repetitive screening was conducted in a primary school and associated households in Liège (Belgium). SARS-CoV-2 screening was performed via throat washing either once or twice a week. We used genomic and epidemiological data to reconstruct the observed school outbreaks using two different models. The outbreaker2 model combines information on the generation time and contact patterns with a model of sequence evolution. For comparison we also used SCOTTI, a phylogenetic model based on the structured coalescent. In addition, we performed a simulation study to investigate how the accuracy of estimated positivity rates in a school depends on the proportion of a school that is sampled in a repetitive screening strategy. We found no difference in SARS-CoV-2 positivity between children and adults and children were not more often asymptomatic compared to adults. Both models for outbreak reconstruction revealed that transmission occurred mainly within the school environment. Uncertainty in outbreak reconstruction was lowest when including genomic as well as epidemiological data. We found that observed weekly positivity rates are a good approximation to the true weekly positivity rate, especially in children, even when only 25% of the school population is sampled. These results indicate that, in addition to reducing infections as shown in modelling studies, repetitive screening in school settings can lead to a better understanding of the extent of transmission in schools during a pandemic and importation risk at the community level.

Modelling the impact of combining HIV prevention interventions on HIV dynamics in fishing communities in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: In countries with mature generalized HIV epidemics such as Uganda, there are still groups of individuals that are disproportionately affected. Among the key populations in Uganda are fishing communities, which make up about 10% of the population. Compared to the general population, HIV prevalence and incidence among individuals living in these communities is high. This high HIV burden has been attributed to several factors including limited access to prevention and treatment services as well as ongoing high-risk sexual behaviour. METHODS: We investigated the impact of combined HIV prevention interventions on HIV transmission dynamics in high-risk fishing communities in Uganda using a deterministic compartmental model. The model was calibrated to seroprevalence data from a census performed in 2014. To account for remaining uncertainty in the calibrated model parameters, 50 000 simulated scenarios were modelled to investigate the impact of combined prevention interventions. RESULTS: The projected HIV incidence decreased from 1.87 per 100 PY without intervention scale-up to 0.25 per 100 PY after 15 years (2014-2029) of intervention scale-up. A potential combination achieving this 87% reduction in incidence over 15 years in Ugandan FCs included condom use in about 60% of sexual acts, 23% of susceptible men circumcised, 87% of people living with HIV aware of their status, 75% of those on ART, and about 3% of susceptible individuals on oral PrEP. Uncertainty analysis revealed relative reductions in incidence ranging from 30.9 to 86.8%. Sensitivity analyses suggested that condom use and early ART were the most important interventions. CONCLUSION: Reducing HIV incidence, as well as prevalence and AIDS-related mortality, in these high-risk fishing communities in Uganda is attainable over 15 years with a combination prevention package. Our projected intervention coverage levels are well within the national targets set by the Uganda government and enable coming close to reaching the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.

Hepatitis C prevalence in incarcerated settings between 2013-2021: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The introduction of highly effective direct-acting antiviral therapy has changed the hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment paradigm. However, a recent update on HCV epidemiology in incarcerated settings is necessary to accurately determine the extent of the problem, provide information to policymakers and public healthcare, and meet the World Health Organization's goals by 2030. This systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to determine the prevalence of HCV Ab and RNA in incarcerated settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science for papers published between January 2013 and August 2021. We included studies with information on the prevalence of HCV Ab or RNA in incarcerated settings. A random-effects meta-analysis was done to calculate the pooled prevalence and meta-regression to explore heterogeneity. RESULTS: Ninety-two unique sources reporting data for 36 countries were included. The estimated prevalence of HCV Ab ranged from 0.3% to 74.4%. HCV RNA prevalence (available in 46 sources) ranged from 0% to 56.3%. Genotypes (available in 19 sources) 1(a) and 3 were most frequently reported in incarcerated settings. HCV/HIV coinfection (available in 36 sources) was highest in Italy, Estonia, Pakistan, and Spain. Statistical analysis revealed that almost all observed heterogeneity reflects real differences in prevalence between studies, considering I2 was very high in the meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: HCV in incarcerated settings is still a significant problem with a higher prevalence than in the general population. It is of utmost importance to start screening for HCV (Ab and RNA) in incarcerated settings to give clear, reliable and recent figures to plan further treatment. This is all in the context of meeting the 2030 WHO targets which are only less than a decade away. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO: CRD42020162616.

Early-onset preeclampsia is characterised by an increased vascular tone in internal jugular veins.

Purpose: This study aimed to investigate Doppler characteristics of maternal internal jugular veins in uncomplicated pregnancies vs. those affected by hypertensive disorders. Materials and methods: Venous pulse transit time and venous impedance index were measured at three different locations (right proximal, right distal, left proximal) of internal jugular veins according to a standardised combined Doppler-Electrocardiogram protocol in five different groups of pregnant women: uncomplicated pregnancy, early-onset preeclampsia, late-onset preeclampsia, gestational hypertension, and normotensive pregnancies with a small for gestational age foetus. Values of both parameters of the latter four groups were plotted against the reference range of uncomplicated pregnancies at corresponding gestation. Linear mixed models with random intercept were used to investigate gestational changes in venous pulse transit time and venous impedance index at the three internal jugular vein locations within and between the different groups. Results: A total of 127 women were included: 41 had uncomplicated pregnancies, 13 had early-onset preeclampsia, 25 had late-onset preeclampsia, 22 had gestational hypertension, and 26 had normotensive pregnancies with a small for gestational age foetus. Venous pulse transit time values were lower than uncomplicated pregnancy (p ≤ 0.001) at all three locations in the third trimester of early-onset preeclampsia. Conclusion: Contrary to late-onset preeclampsia and gestational hypertension, early-onset preeclampsia is characterised by a lower venous pulse transit time at internal jugular veins compared to uncomplicated pregnancy, suggesting increased venous vascular tone.

Controlling SARS-CoV-2 in schools using repetitive testing strategies.

SARS-CoV-2 remains a worldwide emergency. While vaccines have been approved and are widely administered, there is an ongoing debate whether children should be vaccinated or prioritized for vaccination. Therefore, in order to mitigate the spread of more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants among children, the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions is still warranted. We investigate the impact of different testing strategies on the SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in a primary school environment, using an individual-based modelling approach. Specifically, we consider three testing strategies: (1) symptomatic isolation, where we test symptomatic individuals and isolate them when they test positive, (2) reactive screening, where a class is screened once one symptomatic individual was identified, and (3) repetitive screening, where the school in its entirety is screened on regular time intervals. Through this analysis, we demonstrate that repetitive testing strategies can significantly reduce the attack rate in schools, contrary to a reactive screening or a symptomatic isolation approach. However, when a repetitive testing strategy is in place, more cases will be detected and class and school closures are more easily triggered, leading to a higher number of school days lost per child. While maintaining the epidemic under control with a repetitive testing strategy, we show that absenteeism can be reduced by relaxing class and school closure thresholds.

Serial Intervals for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta Variants, Belgium, November 19-December 31, 2021.

We investigated the serial interval for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and Delta variants and observed a shorter serial interval for Omicron, suggesting faster transmission. Results indicate a relationship between empirical serial interval and vaccination status for both variants. Further assessment of the causes and extent of Omicron dominance over Delta is warranted.

Characteristics of the Maternal Jugular Venous Pulse Waveform by Combined Doppler-Electrocardiogram Assessment.

Standardized combined Doppler-electrocardiogram assessment was performed longitudinally at three different locations of internal jugular veins between 12 wk of gestation and 6 wk postnatally in 24 uncomplicated pregnancies. All images were classified as typical or non-typical based on the presence of the physiologic deflections A, X, H and C. Linear mixed models with random intercepts of typical images were used to investigate gestational changes in venous pulse transit time and venous impedance index. Unequivocal identification of venous pulse transit time and venous impedance index was possible in 2617 of 3798 (69%) and 2234 of 3798 (59%) images, respectively. The best identification rate (80%, 1018/1266) was at the right distal internal jugular vein. Venous pulse transit time increased with gestational age at all locations; venous impedance index decreased at the right sided internal jugular vein. Maternal jugular venous pulse waveform by combined Doppler-electrocardiogram allows unequivocal identification of A-deflection and calculation of venous pulse transit time and venous impedance index in around two-thirds of assessments, with the highest success rate at the right distal internal jugular vein. Gestational evolutions of venous pulse transit time and venous impedance index are similar to those reported at the level of renal interlobar and hepatic veins.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 After COVID-19 Screening and Mitigation Measures for Primary School Children Attending School in Liège, Belgium.

Importance: Recent data suggest a relatively low incidence of COVID-19 among children. The possible role that children attending primary school may play in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 remains poorly understood. Objective: To gain a better understanding of the possible role of children in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study was conducted from September 21 to December 31, 2020, in a primary school in Liège, Belgium, among a volunteer sample of 181 children, parents, and school employees. Exposures: Participants were tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection once a week for 15 weeks through throat washing, performed with 5 mL of saline and collected in a sterile tube after approximately 30 seconds of gargling. Quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction was performed to detect SARS-CoV-2 infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: In case of test positivity, participants were asked to complete a questionnaire aimed at determining the timing of symptom onset and symptom duration. SARS-CoV-2 genetic sequencing was also performed. Confirmed cases were linked based on available information on known contacts and viral sequences. Results: A total of 181 individuals participated in this study, including 63 children (34 girls [54.0%]; mean [SD] age, 8.6 [1.9] years [range, 5-13 years]) and 118 adults (75 women [63.6%]; mean [SD] age, 42.5 [5.7] years [range, 30-59 years]). Forty-five individuals (24.9%) tested positive: 13 children (20.6%; 95% CI, 10.6%-30.6%) and 32 adults (27.1%; 95% CI, 19.1%-35.7%) (P = .34). Children were more often asymptomatic compared with adults (6 [46.2%; 95% CI, 19.1%-73.3%] vs 4 of 31 [12.9%; 95% CI, 1.3%-24.5%]; P = .04). The median duration of symptoms was shorter in children than in adults (0.00 days [IQR, 0.00-1.00 days] vs 15.00 days [IQR, 7.00-22.00 days]). A reconstruction of the outbreak revealed that most transmission events occurred between teachers and between children within the school. Of the observed household transmission events, most seemed to have originated from a child or teacher who acquired the infection at school. Conclusions and Relevance: Despite the implementation of several mitigation measures, the incidence of COVID-19 among children attending primary school in this study was comparable to that observed among teachers and parents. Transmission tree reconstruction suggests that most transmission events originated from within the school. Additional measures should be considered to reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at school, including intensified testing.

Quantifying superspreading for COVID-19 using Poisson mixture distributions.

The number of secondary cases, i.e. the number of new infections generated by an infectious individual, is an important parameter for the control of infectious diseases. When individual variation in disease transmission is present, like for COVID-19, the distribution of the number of secondary cases is skewed and often modeled using a negative binomial distribution. However, this may not always be the best distribution to describe the underlying transmission process. We propose the use of three other offspring distributions to quantify heterogeneity in transmission, and we assess the possible bias in estimates of the mean and variance of this distribution when the data generating distribution is different from the one used for inference. We also analyze COVID-19 data from Hong Kong, India, and Rwanda, and quantify the proportion of cases responsible for 80% of transmission, [Formula: see text], while acknowledging the variation arising from the assumed offspring distribution. In a simulation study, we find that variance estimates may be biased when there is a substantial amount of heterogeneity, and that selection of the most accurate distribution from a set of distributions is important. In addition we find that the number of secondary cases for two of the three COVID-19 datasets is better described by a Poisson-lognormal distribution.

A multicentre interventional study to assess blood-borne viral infections in Belgian prisons.

BACKGROUND: Prevalence data on viral hepatitis B (HBV), hepatitis C (HCV), and HIV infection in prison are often scarce or outdated. There is currently no systematic screening for these blood-borne viral infections (BBV) in Belgian prisons. There is an urgency to assess the prevalence of these BBV to inform policymakers and public healthcare. METHODS: This was a multicentre, interventional study to assess the prevalence of BBV using opt-in screening in prisons across Belgium, April 2019 - March 2020. Prisoners were tested using a finger prick and BBV risk factors were assessed using a questionnaire. A generalized linear mixed model was used to investigate the association between the various risk factors and HCV. RESULTS: In total, 886 prisoners from 11 Belgian prisons were screened. Study uptake ranged from 16.9 to 35.4% in long-term facilities. The prevalence of HCV antibodies (Ab), hepatitis B surface antigen (Ag) and HIV Ab/Ag was 5.0% (44/886), 0.8% (7/886), and 0.2% (2/886). The adjusted odds for HCV Ab were highest in prisoners who ever injected (p < 0.001; AOR 24.6 CI 95% (5.5-215.2). The prevalence of detectable HCV RNA in the total cohort was 2.1% (19/886). Thirteen (68.4%) prisoners were redirected for follow-up of their HCV infection. CONCLUSIONS: Opt-in testing for viral hepatitis B, C and HIV was relatively well-accepted in prisons. Compared with the general population, prisoners have a higher prevalence of infection with BBV, especially for HCV. Systematic screening for these BBV should be recommended in all prisons, preferably using opt-out to optimize screening uptake. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Retrospectively registered at clinical trials NCT04366492 April 29, 2020.

Immunogenicity and safety of HBAI20 Hepatitis B vaccine in non-responders: Double-blinded, randomised, controlled phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Approximately 5%-10% of the general population respond inadequately to licensed recombinant hepatitis B vaccines. We assessed the immunogenicity and safety of a new HBAI20 vaccine, consisting of a new AI20 adjuvant (20-µg recombinant human IL-2 attached to 20-µg aluminium hydroxide) in combination with HBVaxPro®-10 µg. METHODS: In a double-blinded, randomised, controlled phase 2 trial, 18- to 59-year-old healthy non-responders (titre <10 mIU/ml after three or more doses of hepatitis B vaccine) were assigned (3:1 ratio) to receive either HBAI20 vaccine or HBVaxPro®-10 µg in a 0, 1 and 2-month schedule. The primary outcome was seroprotection (titre ≥ 10 mIU/ml) measured 1-3 months following the third vaccination. RESULTS: A total of 133 participants were randomised to receive either HBAI20 vaccine (n = 101) or HBVaxPro®-10 µg (n = 32). In the modified intention-to-treat analysis, the seroprotection rate after the third vaccination was 92.0% (80/87) in the HBAI20 group and 79.3% (23/29) in the HBVaxPro®-10-µg group, P = .068. Using a generalised linear mixed model to adjust for stratification factors, a higher odds of seroprotection with HBAI20 vaccine was shown (adjusted odds ratio = 3.48, P = .028). Frequency of mild and moderate local adverse events was greater in the HBAI20 group than in the HBVaxPro®-10 µg. Rates of severe local adverse events and systemic adverse events were low and similar in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: In this group of hepatitis B vaccine non-responders, the HBAI20 vaccine demonstrated a higher seroprotection rate when adjusting for stratification factors and a similar safety profile compared to the licensed recombinant HBVaxPro®-10 µg.

Identification and treatment of viral hepatitis C in persons who use drugs: a prospective, multicenter outreach study in Flanders, Belgium.

BACKGROUND: Targeted screening for hepatitis C viral (HCV) infection is not yet widely executed in Belgium. When performed in people who use drugs (PWUD), it is mainly focused on those receiving opiate agonist therapy (OAT). We wanted to reach out to a population of difficult to reach PWUD not on centralized OAT, using non-invasive screening as a bridge to re-integration in medical care supported by facilitated referral to a specialist. METHODS: This was a prospective, multicenter cohort study in PWUD not enrolled in a centralized OAT program in a community-based facility in Limburg or OAT program in a community-based facility in Antwerp, Belgium, from October 2018 until October 2019. Two study teams recruited participants using an outreach method at 18 different locations. Participants were tested for HCV antibodies (Ab) by finger prick, and risk factors were assessed through a face-to-face questionnaire. Univariate analyses were used to assess the association between HCV Ab and each risk factor separately. A generalized linear mixed model was used to investigate the association between the different risk factors and HCV. RESULTS: In total, 425 PWUD were reached with a mean age of 41.6 ± 10.8, and 78.8% (335/425) were men. HCV Ab prevalence was 14.8% (63/425). Fifty-six (88.9%) PWUD were referred, of whom 37 (66.1%) were linked to care and tested for HCV RNA. Twenty-nine (78.4%) had a chronic HCV infection. Treatment was initiated in 17 (58.6%) patients. The adjusted odds for HCV Ab were highest in those with unstable housing 6 months before inclusion (p < .001, AOR 8.2 CI 95% 3.2-23.3) and in those who had ever shared paraphernalia for intravenous drug use (p < .001, AOR 6.2 CI 95% 2.5-16.0). CONCLUSIONS: An important part tested positive for HCV. Treatment could be started in more than half of the chronically infected referred and tested positive for HCV-RNA. Micro-elimination is necessary to achieve the World Health Organization goals by 2030. However, it remains crucial to screen and link a broader group of PWUD to care than to focus solely on those who inject drugs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT04363411, Registered 27 April 2020-Retrospectively registered. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04363411?term=NCT04363411&draw=2&rank=1.

The hepatitis C cascade of care in the Belgian HIV population: One step closer to elimination.

OBJECTIVES: The Belgian population of people living with HIV (PLHIV) has unrestricted access to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, since 2017. International literature claims that half of the patients remain untreated in high-income countries with unrestricted access to DAA. This study was initiated to provide an overview of the present situation in Belgium and recommendations for HCV care in PLHIV in other regions. METHODS: This was a retrospective, multicenter study of PLHIV in Belgium, from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2018. The HCV cascade of care was examined. RESULTS: Out of 4607 unique PLHIV, 322 (7.0%) tested positive for HCV antibody and HCV RNA positivity was seen in 289 (6.3%). Of those with a proven HCV infection, 207/289 (71.6%) initiated treatment. Of the 171 (82.6%) persons with a sustained virologic response (SVR), 16 (9.4%) subjects were reinfected. CONCLUSIONS: We present a care cascade of 4607 PLHIV in Belgium. Treatment initiation and SVR rates were high compared to other regions. Implementation of a national HCV register to track progress and yearly screening, especially in PLHIV with high-risk behavior, remains crucial. Identifying reasons for not initiating treatment is necessary to achieve elimination of HCV in PLHIV by 2030.

Estimating Transmission Parameters for COVID-19 Clusters by Using Symptom Onset Data, Singapore, January-April 2020.

We estimated the generation interval distribution for coronavirus disease on the basis of serial intervals of observed infector-infectee pairs from established clusters in Singapore. The short mean generation interval and consequent high prevalence of presymptomatic transmission requires public health control measures to be responsive to these characteristics of the epidemic.

Early detection of chronic hepatitis B and risk factor assessment in Turkish migrants, Middle Limburg, Belgium.

BACKGROUND: Turkey is an intermediate hepatitis B virus (HBV) endemic country. However, prevalence among Turkish migrants in Belgium is unknown, especially in those born in Belgium with a foreign-born parent, i.e. second-generation migrants (SGM). AIMS: To evaluate the prevalence of HBV infection and associated risk factors in Turkish first-generation migrants (FGM), i.e. foreign-born, and SGM. METHODS: Between September 2017 and May 2019, free outreach testing for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), hepatitis B core antibodies (anti-HBc), and antibodies against HBsAg was offered to Turkish migrants in Middle-Limburg, Belgium. Face-to-face questionnaire assessed HBV risk factors. HBsAg positive patients were referred and followed up. Turkish SGM were stratified into birth cohort born before and after 1987, since those born after 1987 should be covered by the universal infant vaccination program. RESULTS: A total of 1,081/1,113 (97.1%) Turkish did go for HBV testing. Twenty-six (2.4%) were HBsAg positive; 11/26 were unaware of their status and 10/11 were successfully referred. HBsAg prevalence was 3.0% in FGM and 1.5% in SGM, p = .070. Only one out of seven HBsAg positive SGM was born after 1987. In the multiple generalized estimating equations model, the most important risk factors for anti-HBc positivity were male gender (p = .021), older age (p < .001), FGM (p < .001), low educational level of the mother (p = .003), HBV infected mother (p = .008), HBV infected siblings (p = .002), HBV infected other family member (p = .004), gynaecological examination in Turkey or unsafe male circumcision (p = .032) and dental treatment in Turkey (p = .049). CONCLUSION: Outreach testing was well-accepted and referral to specialist care was generally successful. National HBV screening should be implemented in the Turkish FGM population and might be considered in SGM not covered by primary prevention strategies.

Estimating the generation interval for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) based on symptom onset data, March 2020.

BackgroundEstimating key infectious disease parameters from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak is essential for modelling studies and guiding intervention strategies.AimWe estimate the generation interval, serial interval, proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission and effective reproduction number of COVID-19. We illustrate that reproduction numbers calculated based on serial interval estimates can be biased.MethodsWe used outbreak data from clusters in Singapore and Tianjin, China to estimate the generation interval from symptom onset data while acknowledging uncertainty about the incubation period distribution and the underlying transmission network. From those estimates, we obtained the serial interval, proportions of pre-symptomatic transmission and reproduction numbers.ResultsThe mean generation interval was 5.20 days (95% credible interval (CrI): 3.78-6.78) for Singapore and 3.95 days (95% CrI: 3.01-4.91) for Tianjin. The proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission was 48% (95% CrI: 32-67) for Singapore and 62% (95% CrI: 50-76) for Tianjin. Reproduction number estimates based on the generation interval distribution were slightly higher than those based on the serial interval distribution. Sensitivity analyses showed that estimating these quantities from outbreak data requires detailed contact tracing information.ConclusionHigh estimates of the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission imply that case finding and contact tracing need to be supplemented by physical distancing measures in order to control the COVID-19 outbreak. Notably, quarantine and other containment measures were already in place at the time of data collection, which may inflate the proportion of infections from pre-symptomatic individuals.

Quantifying superspreading for COVID-19 using Poisson mixture distributions.

The number of secondary cases is an important parameter for the control of infectious diseases. When individual variation in disease transmission is present, like for COVID-19, the number of secondary cases is often modelled using a negative binomial distribution. However, this may not be the best distribution to describe the underlying transmission process. We propose the use of three other offspring distributions to quantify heterogeneity in transmission, and we assess the possible bias in estimates of the offspring mean and its overdispersion when the data generating distribution is different from the one used for inference. We find that overdispersion estimates may be biased when there is a substantial amount of heterogeneity, and that the use of other distributions besides the negative binomial should be considered. We revisit three previously analysed COVID-19 datasets and quantify the proportion of cases responsible for 80% of transmission, p 80% , while acknowledging the variation arising from the assumed offspring distribution. We find that the number of secondary cases for these datasets is better described by a Poisson-lognormal distribution.