Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

A statistical indicator for dynamic stability, known as the Υ indicator, is used to gauge the stability and, hence, detect approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced five-box model of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exposed to a time-dependent hosing function. The hosing function simulates the influx of fresh water due to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and increased precipitation in the North Atlantic. The Υ indicator is designed to detect changes in the memory properties of the dynamics and is based on fitting auto-regressive moving-average models in a sliding window approach to time series data. An increase in memory properties is interpreted as a sign of dynamical instability. The performance of the indicator is tested on time series subject to different types of tipping, namely, bifurcation-induced, noise-induced, and rate-induced tipping. The numerical analysis shows that the indicator indeed responds to the different types of induced instabilities. Finally, the indicator is applied to two AMOC time series from a full complexity Earth systems model (CESM2). Compared with the doubling CO scenario, the quadrupling CO scenario results in stronger dynamical instability of the AMOC during its weakening phase.

Cardiorespiratory, Metabolic and Perceived Responses to Electrical Stimulation of Upper-Body Muscles While Performing Arm Cycling.

This study was designed to assess systemic cardio-respiratory, metabolic and perceived responses to incremental arm cycling with concurrent electrical myostimulation (EMS). Eleven participants (24 ± 3 yrs; 182 ± 10 cm; 86 ± 16.8 kg) performed two incremental tests involving arm cycling until volitional exhaustion was reached with and without EMS of upper-body muscles. The peak power output was 10.1% lower during arm cycling with (128 ± 30 W) than without EMS (141 ± 25 W, p = 0.01; d = 0.47). In addition, the heart rate (2-9%), oxygen uptake (7-15%), blood lactate concentration (8-46%) and ratings of perceived exertion (4-14%) while performing submaximal arm cycling with EMS were all higher with than without EMS (all p < 0.05). Upon exhaustion, the heart rate, oxygen uptake, lactate concentration, and ratings of perceived exertion did not differ between the two conditions (all p > 0.05). In conclusion, arm cycling with EMS induced more pronounced cardio-respiratory, metabolic and perceived responses, especially during submaximal arm cycling. This form of exercise with stimulation might be beneficial for a variety of athletes competing in sports involving considerable generation of work by the upper body (e.g., kayaking, cross-country skiing, swimming, rowing and various parasports).