The 'algebra of evolution': the Robertson-Price identity and viability selection for body mass in a wild bird population.

By the Robertson-Price identity, the change in a quantitative trait owing to selection, is equal to the trait's covariance with relative fitness. In this study, we applied the identity to long-term data on superb fairy-wrens Malurus cyaneus, to estimate phenotypic and genetic change owing to juvenile viability selection. Mortality in the four-week period between fledging and independence was 40%, and heavier nestlings were more likely to survive, but why? There was additive genetic variance for both nestling mass and survival, and a positive phenotypic covariance between the traits, but no evidence of additive genetic covariance. Comparing standardized gradients, the phenotypic selection gradient was positive, ßP = 0.108 (0.036, 0.187 95% CI), whereas the genetic gradient was not different from zero, ßA = -0.025 (-0.19, 0.107 95% CI). This suggests that factors other than nestling mass were the cause of variation in survival. In particular, there were temporal correlations between mass and survival both within and between years. We suggest that use of the Price equation to describe cross-generational change in the wild may be challenging, but a more modest aim of estimating its first term, the Robertson-Price identity, to assess within-generation change can provide valuable insights into the processes shaping phenotypic diversity in natural populations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Fifty years of the Price equation'.

Seroprevalence of respiratory viral pathogens of indigenous calves in Western Kenya.

Most studies of infectious diseases in East African cattle have concentrated on gastro-intestinal parasites and vector-borne diseases. As a result, relatively little is known about viral diseases, except for those that are clinically symptomatic or which affect international trade such as foot and mouth disease, bluetongue and epizootic haemorrhagic disease. Here, we investigate the seroprevalence, distribution and relationship between the viruses involved in respiratory disease, infectious bovine rhinotracheitis virus (IBR), bovine parainfluenza virus Type 3 (PIV3) and bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) in East African Shorthorn Zebu calves. These viruses contribute to the bovine respiratory disease complex (BRD) which is responsible for major economic losses in cattle from intensive farming systems as a result of pneumonia. We found that calves experience similar risks of infection for IBR, PIV3, and BVDV with a seroprevalence of 20.9%, 20.1% and 19.8% respectively. We confirm that positive associations exist between IBR, PIV3 and BVDV; being seropositive for any one of these three viruses means that an individual is more likely to be seropositive for the other two viruses than expected by chance.

Endocranial volume is heritable and is associated with longevity and fitness in a wild mammal.

Research on relative brain size in mammals suggests that increases in brain size may generate benefits to survival and costs to fecundity: comparative studies of mammals have shown that interspecific differences in relative brain size are positively correlated with longevity and negatively with fecundity. However, as yet, no studies of mammals have investigated whether similar relationships exist within species, nor whether individual differences in brain size within a wild population are heritable. Here we show that, in a wild population of red deer (Cervus elaphus), relative endocranial volume was heritable (h2 = 63%; 95% credible intervals (CI) = 50-76%). In females, it was positively correlated with longevity and lifetime reproductive success, though there was no evidence that it was associated with fecundity. In males, endocranial volume was not related to longevity, lifetime breeding success or fecundity.

Variation and covariation in strongyle infection in East African shorthorn zebu calves.

Parasite burden varies widely between individuals within a population, and can covary with multiple aspects of individual phenotype. Here we investigate the sources of variation in faecal strongyle eggs counts, and its association with body weight and a suite of haematological measures, in a cohort of indigenous zebu calves in Western Kenya, using relatedness matrices reconstructed from single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes. Strongyle egg count was heritable (h(2) = 23.9%, s.e. = 11.8%) and we also found heritability of white blood cell counts (WBC) (h(2) = 27.6%, s.e. = 10.6%). All the traits investigated showed negative phenotypic covariances with strongyle egg count throughout the first year: high worm counts were associated with low values of WBC, red blood cell count, total serum protein and absolute eosinophil count. Furthermore, calf body weight at 1 week old was a significant predictor of strongyle EPG at 16-51 weeks, with smaller calves having a higher strongyle egg count later in life. Our results indicate a genetic basis to strongyle EPG in this population, and also reveal consistently strong negative associations between strongyle infection and other important aspects of the multivariate phenotype.

A quantitative genetic analysis of hibernation emergence date in a wild population of Columbian ground squirrels.

The life history schedules of wild organisms have long attracted scientific interest, and, in light of ongoing climate change, an understanding of their genetic and environmental underpinnings is increasingly becoming of applied concern. We used a multi-generation pedigree and detailed phenotypic records, spanning 18 years, to estimate the quantitative genetic influences on the timing of hibernation emergence in a wild population of Columbian ground squirrels (Urocitellus columbianus). Emergence date was significantly heritable [h(2) = 0.22 ± 0.05 (in females) and 0.34 ± 0.14 (in males)], and there was a positive genetic correlation (r(G) = 0.76 ± 0.22) between male and female emergence dates. In adult females, the heritabilities of body mass at emergence and oestrous date were h(2) = 0.23 ± 0.09 and h(2) = 0.18 ± 0.12, respectively. The date of hibernation emergence has been hypothesized to have evolved so as to synchronize subsequent reproduction with upcoming peaks in vegetation abundance. In support of this hypothesis, although levels of phenotypic variance in emergence date were higher than oestrous date, there was a highly significant genetic correlation between the two (r(G) = 0.98 ± 0.01). Hibernation is a prominent feature in the annual cycle of many small mammals, but our understanding of its influences lags behind that for phenological traits in many other taxa. Our results provide the first insight into its quantitative genetic influences and thus help contribute to a more general understanding of its evolutionary significance.

Natural selection on a measure of parasite resistance varies across ages and environmental conditions in a wild mammal.

Parasites detrimentally affect host fitness, leading to expectations of positive selection on host parasite resistance. However, as immunity is costly, host fitness may be maximized at low, but nonzero, parasite infection intensities. These hypotheses are rarely tested on natural variation in free-living populations. We investigated selection on a measure of host parasite resistance in a naturally regulated Soay sheep population using a longitudinal data set and found negative correlations between parasite infection intensity and annual fitness in lambs, male yearlings and adult females. However, having accounted for confounding effects of body weight, the effect was only significant in lambs. Associations between fitness and parasite resistance were environment-dependent, being strong during low-mortality winters, but negligible during harsher high-mortality winters. There was no evidence for stabilizing selection. Our findings reveal processes that may shape variation in parasite resistance in natural populations and illustrate the importance of accounting for correlated traits in selection analysis.

Indirect genetics effects and evolutionary constraint: an analysis of social dominance in red deer, Cervus elaphus.

By determining access to limited resources, social dominance is often an important determinant of fitness. Thus, if heritable, standard theory predicts mean dominance should evolve. However, dominance is usually inferred from the tendency to win contests, and given one winner and one loser in any dyadic contest, the mean proportion won will always equal 0.5. Here, we argue that the apparent conflict between quantitative genetic theory and common sense is resolved by recognition of indirect genetic effects (IGEs). We estimate selection on, and genetic (co)variance structures for, social dominance, in a wild population of red deer Cervus elaphus, on the Scottish island of Rum. While dominance is heritable and positively correlated with lifetime fitness, contest outcomes depend as much on the genes carried by an opponent as on the genotype of a focal individual. We show how this dependency imposes an absolute evolutionary constraint on the phenotypic mean, thus reconciling theoretical predictions with common sense. More generally, we argue that IGEs likely provide a widespread but poorly recognized source of evolutionary constraint for traits influenced by competition.

The danger of applying the breeder's equation in observational studies of natural populations.

The breeder's equation, which predicts evolutionary change when a phenotypic covariance exists between a heritable trait and fitness, has provided a key conceptual framework for studies of adaptive microevolution in nature. However, its application requires strong assumptions to be made about the causation of fitness variation. In its univariate form, the breeder's equation assumes that the trait of interest is not correlated with other traits having causal effects on fitness. In its multivariate form, the validity of predicted change rests on the assumption that all such correlated traits have been measured and incorporated into the analysis. Here, we (i) highlight why these assumptions are likely to be seriously violated in studies of natural, rather than artificial, selection and (ii) advocate wider use of the Robertson-Price identity as a more robust, and less assumption-laden, alternative to the breeder's equation for applications in evolutionary ecology.

Maternal effects and early-life performance are associated with parasite resistance across life in free-living Soay sheep.

Maternal effects occur when the maternal phenotype influences that of the offspring in addition to the effects of maternal genes, and may have a considerable influence on offspring parasite resistance. These effects, and the effects of early levels of reproduction and parasite resistance, may persist into later life and even influence ageing rates. Here we analyse a 20-year longitudinal data set collected on a free-living population of Soay sheep, to investigate the associations between a suite of maternal phenotypic traits and early-life performance on measures of parasite resistance across life. Our results show that maternal effects are important in determining offspring parasite resistance, since lambs born as twins and those born to the youngest and oldest mothers show higher parasite burdens. We show that the association between parasite resistance and natal litter size persists into adulthood. We also show that age-specific changes in parasite resistance in males are associated with natal litter size, and that age-specific changes in females are influenced by early-life levels of reproduction and parasite infection. These results add to the growing evidence that conditions experienced by individuals during development can have a profound influence on immediate and late-life performance and may even influence ageing.

Trading offspring size for number in a variable environment: selection on reproductive investment in female Soay sheep.

1. Given energetic constraints, female reproductive strategy is expected to be shaped by a trade-off between offspring size and offspring number, the optimal resolution of which may vary with environmental conditions. 2. We tested the hypothesis that selection will favour the production of larger litters, even at some expense to offspring size, under good conditions (and vice versa in harsh environments) using data from a long-term study of an unmanaged population of Soay sheep on the islands of St Kilda, NW Scotland. 3. Both litter size (which is either 1 or 2) and offspring birth weight are under positive selection through female annual fitness, but the strength of selection varies systematically with environmental conditions. Age effects were also detected, with selection weakening as female age increases. 4. Consistent with theoretical predictions, the selective trade-off between litter and offspring size is shifted in favour of the latter under poor environmental conditions. Thus, direct selection on offspring birth weight increases under harsh environmental conditions, particularly for females producing twins. 5. However, singletons are only favoured when environmental conditions are very poor, and offspring weight is constrained to be low. Thus, the current low incidence of twinning (13.5% of litters produced since 1985) appears to be suboptimal with respect to the empirically estimated selection regime. Thus, litter size, a trait known to be heritable, may be expected to evolve upwards in this population. 6. Our study highlights the necessity of incorporating environmental heterogeneity and age structure into analyses of natural selection, and suggests that the common assumption of optimality used in models of life history may sometimes be problematic.

Estimating the functional form for the density dependence from life history data.

Two contrasting approaches to the analysis of population dynamics are currently popular: demographic approaches where the associations between demographic rates and statistics summarizing the population dynamics are identified; and time series approaches where the associations between population dynamics, population density, and environmental covariates are investigated. In this paper, we develop an approach to combine these methods and apply it to detailed data from Soay sheep (Ovis aries). We examine how density dependence and climate contribute to fluctuations in population size via age- and sex-specific demographic rates, and how fluctuations in demographic structure influence population dynamics. Density dependence contributes most, followed by climatic variation, age structure fluctuations and interactions between density and climate. We then simplify the density-dependent, stochastic, age-structured demographic model and derive a new phenomenological time series which captures the dynamics better than previously selected functions. The simple method we develop has potential to provide substantial insight into the relative contributions of population and individual-level processes to the dynamics of populations in stochastic environments.

Introduction. Evolutionary dynamics of wild populations: the use of long-term pedigree data.

Studies of populations in the wild can provide unique insights into the forces driving evolutionary dynamics. This themed issue of Proc. R. Soc. B focuses on new developments in long-term analyses of animal populations where pedigree information has been collected. These address fundamental questions in evolutionary biology concerning the genetic basis of phenotypic diversity, patterns of natural and sexual selection, the occurrence of inbreeding and inbreeding depression, and speciation. Contributions include the analysis of evolutionary responses to climate change, exploration of the genetic basis of senescence, the exploitation of advances in molecular genetic technology, and reviews of developments in quantitative genetic methodology. We discuss here common themes, specific problems and pointers for future research.

How to separate genetic and environmental causes of similarity between relatives.

Related individuals often have similar phenotypes, but this similarity may be due to the effects of shared environments as much as to the effects of shared genes. We consider here alternative approaches to separating the relative contributions of these two sources to phenotypic covariances, comparing experimental approaches such as cross-fostering, traditional statistical techniques and more complex statistical models, specifically the 'animal model'. Using both simulation studies and empirical data from wild populations, we demonstrate the ability of the animal model to reduce bias due to shared environment effects such as maternal or brood effects, especially where pedigrees contain multiple generations and immigration rates are low. However, where common environment effects are strong, a combination of both cross-fostering and an animal model provides the best way to avoid bias. We illustrate ways of partitioning phenotypic variance into components of additive genetic, maternal genetic, maternal environment, common environment, permanent environment and temporal effects, but also show how substantial confounding between these different effects may occur. Whilst the flexibility of the mixed model approach is extremely useful for incorporating the spatial, temporal and social heterogeneity typical of natural populations, the advantages will inevitably be restricted by the quality of pedigree information and care needs to be taken in specifying models that are appropriate to the data.

Epidemiology of parasitic protozoan infections in Soay sheep (Ovis aries L.) on St Kilda.

The feral Soay sheep (Ovis aries L.) population on Hirta, St Kilda, is host to a diverse component parasite community, but previous parasitological studies of the population have only focussed on the metazoan species. This paper reports the first epidemiological study of the protozoan species comprising Cryptosporidium parvum, Giardia duodenalis and 11 species of Eimeria in Soay sheep across 3 years of varying host population density. Prevalence and intensity of almost all species of protozoa significantly decreased with host age, with the exception of E. granulosa, which increased in prevalence with host age. The prevalence of C. parvum appeared to vary positively with host population density but that of G. duodenalis did not vary significantly with density. Most species of Eimeria showed a distinct lag in infection level following the host population crash of 2002, taking up to 2 years to decrease. Mixed Eimeria species intensity and diversity were highest in 2002, a year of low host density. Parasite diversity decreased with host age and was higher in males. There were 5 positive pair-wise associations between protozoa species in terms of prevalence. The results of this study highlight the potential for protozoal infection to shape the evolution of parasite resistance in wild host populations harbouring diverse parasite species.

Environmental coupling of selection and heritability limits evolution.

There has recently been great interest in applying theoretical quantitative genetic models to empirical studies of evolution in wild populations. However, while classical models assume environmental constancy, most natural populations exist in variable environments. Here, we applied a novel analytical technique to a long-term study of birthweight in wild sheep and examined, for the first time, how variation in environmental quality simultaneously influences the strength of natural selection and the genetic basis of trait variability. In addition to demonstrating that selection and genetic variance vary dramatically across environments, our results show that environmental heterogeneity induces a negative correlation between these two parameters. Harsh environmental conditions were associated with strong selection for increased birthweight but low genetic variance, and vice versa. Consequently, the potential for microevolution in this population is constrained by either a lack of heritable variation (in poor environments) or by a reduced strength of selection (in good environments). More generally, environmental dependence of this nature may act to limit rates of evolution, maintain genetic variance, and favour phenotypic stasis in many natural systems. Assumptions of environmental constancy are likely to be violated in natural systems, and failure to acknowledge this may generate highly misleading expectations for phenotypic microevolution.

Genetic consequences of human management in an introduced island population of red deer (Cervus elaphus).

We investigated phylogeography and spatial genetic structure in an introduced island population of red deer (Cervus elaphus) on the Isle of Rum, Scotland, experiencing spatial variation in management regime. Five different mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes were present among female red deer on Rum. These comprised two phylogenetically divergent groups, one of which clustered with red deer from Sardinia and North Africa, while the other four grouped with other Western European red deer. Recent and historical red deer management practices explain this result. The Rum population is descended from recent introductions from at least four different UK mainland populations, and translocation of red deer within the UK and across Europe is well documented. We found significant spatial genetic structure across Rum in both mtDNA haplotypes and microsatellite markers. Mitochondrial spatial structure was over an order of magnitude greater than structure in nuclear markers. This extreme difference is explained by the fact that the Rum population was introduced from different source populations, the highly male-biased dispersal patterns of red deer and the much smaller effective population size of mitochondrial compared to nuclear markers. Spatial structure in mtDNA conformed to a pattern of isolation by distance, while nuclear DNA did not. Apparent structure in the nuclear markers was driven by differences between the North Block and the rest of the island. We suggest that recent differences in the management regimes in different parts of the island have led to differences in effective male migration that would account for this observation.

Rapidly declining fine-scale spatial genetic structure in female red deer.

A growing literature now documents the presence of fine-scale genetic structure in wild vertebrate populations. Breeding population size, levels of dispersal and polygyny--all hypothesized to affect population genetic structure--are known to be influenced by ecological conditions experienced by populations. However the possibility of temporal or spatial variation in fine-scale genetic structure as a result of ecological change is rarely considered or explored. Here we investigate temporal variation in fine-scale genetic structure in a red deer population on the Isle or Rum, Scotland. We document extremely fine-scale spatial genetic structure (< 100 m) amongst females but not males across a 24-year study period during which resource competition has intensified and the population has reached habitat carrying capacity. Based on census data, adult deer were allocated to one of three subpopulations in each year of the study. Global F(ST) estimates for females generated using these subpopulations decreased over the study period, indicating a rapid decline in fine-scale genetic structure of the population. Global F(ST) estimates for males were not different from zero across the study period. Using census and genetic data, we illustrate that, as a consequence of a release from culling early in the study period, the number of breeding females has increased while levels of polygyny have decreased in this population. We found little evidence for increasing dispersal between subpopulations over time in either sex. We argue that both increasing female population size and decreasing polygyny could explain the decline in female population genetic structure.

Maternal genetic effects set the potential for evolution in a free-living vertebrate population.

Heritable maternal effects have important consequences for the evolutionary dynamics of phenotypic traits under selection, but have only rarely been tested for or quantified in evolutionary studies. Here we estimate maternal effects on early-life traits in a feral population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) from St Kilda, Scotland. We then partition the maternal effects into genetic and environmental components to obtain the first direct estimates of maternal genetic effects in a free-living population, and furthermore test for covariance between direct and maternal genetic effects. Using an animal model approach, direct heritabilities (h2) were low but maternal genetic effects (m2) represented a relatively large proportion of the total phenotypic variance for each trait (birth weight m2=0.119, birth date m2=0.197, natal litter size m2=0.211). A negative correlation between direct and maternal genetic effects was estimated for each trait, but was only statistically significant for natal litter size (ram= -0.714). Total heritabilities (incorporating variance from heritable maternal effects and the direct-maternal genetic covariance) were significant for birth weight and birth date but not for natal litter size. Inadequately specified models greatly overestimated additive genetic variance and hence direct h2 (by a factor of up to 6.45 in the case of birth date). We conclude that failure to model heritable maternal variance can result in over- or under-estimation of the potential for traits to respond to selection, and advocate an increased effort to explicitly measure maternal genetic effects in evolutionary studies.

Mating patterns in a hybrid zone of fire-bellied toads (Bombina): inferences from adult and full-sib genotypes.

We present two novel methods to infer mating patterns from genetic data. They differ from existing statistical methods of parentage inference in that they apply to populations that deviate from Hardy-Weinberg and linkage equilibrium, and so are suited for the study of assortative mating in hybrid zones. The core data set consists of genotypes at several loci for a number of full-sib clutches of unknown parentage. Our inference is based throughout on estimates of allelic associations within and across loci, such as heterozygote deficit and pairwise linkage disequilibrium. In the first method, the most likely parents of a given clutch are determined from the genotypic distribution of the associated adult population, given an explicit model of nonrandom mating. This leads to estimates of the strength of assortment. The second approach is based solely on the offspring genotypes and relies on the fact that a linear relation exists between associations among the offspring and those in the population of breeding pairs. We apply both methods to a sample from the hybrid zone between the fire-bellied toads Bombina bombina and B. variegata (Anura: Disco glossidae) in Croatia. Consistently, both approaches provide no evidence for a departure from random mating, despite adequate statistical power. Instead, B. variegata-like individuals among the adults contributed disproportionately to the offspring cohort, consistent with their preference for the type of breeding habitat in which this study was conducted.