Spatial asynchrony and cross-scale climate interactions in populations of a coldwater stream fish.

Climate change affects populations over broad geographic ranges due to spatially autocorrelated abiotic conditions known as the Moran effect. However, populations do not always respond to broad-scale environmental changes synchronously across a landscape. We combined multiple datasets for a retrospective analysis of time-series count data (5-28 annual samples per segment) at 144 stream segments dispersed over nearly 1,000 linear kilometers of range to characterize the population structure and scale of spatial synchrony across the southern native range of a coldwater stream fish (brook trout, Salvelinus fontinalis), which is sensitive to stream temperature and flow variations. Spatial synchrony differed by life stage and geographic region: it was stronger in the juvenile life stage than in the adult life stage and in the northern sub-region than in the southern sub-region. Spatial synchrony of trout populations extended to 100-200 km but was much weaker than that of climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and stream flow. Early life stage abundance changed over time due to annual variation in summer temperature and winter and spring stream flow conditions. Climate effects on abundance differed between sub-regions and among local populations within sub-regions, indicating multiple cross-scale interactions where climate interacted with local habitat to generate only a modest pattern of population synchrony over space. Overall, our analysis showed higher degrees of response heterogeneity of local populations to climate variation and consequently population asynchrony than previously shown based on analysis of individual, geographically restricted datasets. This response heterogeneity indicates that certain local segments characterized by population asynchrony and resistance to climate variation could represent unique populations of this iconic native coldwater fish that warrant targeted conservation. Advancing the conservation of this species can include actions that identify such priority populations and incorporate them into landscape-level conservation planning. Our approach is applicable to other widespread aquatic species sensitive to climate change.

Which species, how many, and from where: Integrating habitat suitability, population genomics, and abundance estimates into species reintroduction planning.

Extirpated organisms are reintroduced into their former ranges worldwide to combat species declines and biodiversity losses. The growing field of reintroduction biology provides guiding principles for reestablishing populations, though criticisms remain regarding limited integration of initial planning, modeling frameworks, interdisciplinary collaborations, and multispecies approaches. We used an interdisciplinary, multispecies, quantitative framework to plan reintroductions of three fish species into Abrams Creek, Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA. We first assessed the appropriateness of habitat at reintroduction sites for banded sculpin (Cottus carolinae), greenside darter (Etheostoma blennioides), and mottled sculpin (Cottus bairdii) using species distribution modeling. Next, we evaluated the relative suitability of nine potential source stock sites using population genomics, abundance estimates, and multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) based on known correlates of reintroduction success. Species distribution modeling identified mottled sculpin as a poor candidate, but banded sculpin and greenside darter as suitable candidates for reintroduction based on species-habitat relationships and habitats available in Abrams Creek. Genotyping by sequencing revealed acceptable levels of genetic diversity at all candidate source stock sites, identified population clusters, and allowed for estimating the number of fish that should be included in translocations. Finally, MCDA highlighted priorities among candidate source stock sites that were most likely to yield successful reintroductions based on differential weightings of habitat assessment, population genomics, and the number of fish available for translocation. Our integrative approach represents a unification of multiple recent advancements in the field of reintroduction biology and highlights the benefit of shifting away from simply choosing nearby populations for translocation to an information-based science with strong a priori planning coupled with several suggested posteriori monitoring objectives. Our framework can be applied to optimize reintroduction successes for a multitude of organisms and advances in the science of reintroduction biology by simultaneously addressing a variety of past criticisms of the field.