Psychosocial predictors of return to alcohol use after liver transplant: A multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use after liver transplant (LT) is associated with higher rates of graft loss and increased mortality; however, there are limited data evaluating predictors of return to alcohol use using biochemical markers like phosphatidylethanol (PEth). METHODS: This multicenter retrospective cohort study evaluated psychosocial predictors of return to alcohol use using PEth testing in patients transplanted for alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD). The study included 223 patients at three centers who had received a LT for ALD and had at least one PEth measurement post-LT. RESULTS: The rate of return to alcohol use was 6.9 cases per 100 person-years (26 patients total) over a median 555 days of follow-up after transplant. Younger age (HR 0.96; 95% CI 0.92-0.99, p = 0.02), mental health comorbidities (HR 2.83; 95% CI 1.25-6.39, p = 0.01), and non-Hispanic White race (HR 3.79; 95% CI 1.42-10.15, p = 0.01) were associated with return to alcohol use post-LT. There was no difference between post-LT return to alcohol use rates or short-term survival among patients with less than 6 months of sobriety prior to listing compared with those with more than 6 months. Patients with sustained alcohol use post-LT had increased odds of history of illicit substance use (OR 5.20; 95% CI 1.01-26.83, p = 0.04) but no significant difference in time from the last drink to listing (OR 1.03; 95% CI 0.18-5.80, p = 0.97). CONCLUSIONS: These findings emphasize the importance of mental health comorbidities rather than period of sobriety in predicting post-LT return to alcohol use. Furthermore, the higher risk of return to alcohol use in non-Hispanic White patients suggests a potential disparity with referral and selection of higher risk White patients.

Survival benefit of liver transplantation utilizing marginal donor organ according to ABO blood type.

BACKGROUND: The current liver transplantation (LT) allocation policy focuses on the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores, often overlooking factors like blood type and survival benefits. Understanding blood types' impact on survival benefits is crucial for optimizing the MELD 3.0 classification. METHOD: This study used the United Network for Organ Sharing national registry database (2003-2020) to identify LT characteristics per ABO blood type and to determine the optimal MELD 3.0 scores for each blood type, based on survival benefits. RESULTS: The study included LT candidates aged 18 years or older listed for LT (total N=150,815; A:56,546, AB:5,841, B:18,500, O:69,928). Among these, 87,409 individuals (58.0%) underwent LT (A:32,156, AB:4,362, B:11,786, O:39,105). Higher transplantation rates were observed in AB and B groups, with lower median MELD 3.0 scores at transplantation (AB:21, B:24 vs. A/O:26, p<0.01) and shorter waiting times (AB:101 days, B:172 days vs. A:211 days, O:201 days, p<0.01). A preference for Donation after Cardiac Death (DCD) was seen in A and O recipients. Survival benefit analysis indicated that B blood type required higher MELD 3.0 scores for transplantation than A and O (Donation after Brain Death transplantation: ≥15 in B vs. ≥11 in A/O; DCD transplantation: ≥21 in B vs. ≥11 in A, ≥15 in O). CONCLUSION: The study suggests revising the allocation policy to consider blood type for improved post-LT survival. This calls for personalized LT policies, recommending higher MELD 3.0 thresholds, particularly for individuals with type B blood.

Common definitions and variables are needed for the United States to join the conversation on acute-on-chronic liver failure.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a variably defined syndrome characterized by acute decompensation of cirrhosis with organ failures. At least 13 different definitions and diagnostic criteria for ACLF have been proposed, and there is increasing recognition that patients with ACLF may face disadvantages in the current United States liver allocation system. There is a need, therefore, for more standardized data collection and consensus to improve study design and outcome assessment in ACLF. In this article, we discuss the current landscape of transplantation for patients with ACLF, strategies to optimize organ utility, and data opportunities based on emerging technologies to facilitate improved data collection.

Continuous Risk Score Predicts Waitlist and Post-transplant Outcomes in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Despite Exception Changes.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Continuous risk-stratification of candidates and urgency-based prioritization have been utilized for liver transplantation (LT) in patients with non-hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the United States. Instead, for patients with HCC, a dichotomous criterion with exception points is still used. This study evaluated the utility of the hazard associated with LT for HCC (HALT-HCC), an oncological continuous risk score, to stratify waitlist dropout and post-LT outcomes. METHODS: A competing risk model was developed and validated using the UNOS database (2012-2021) through multiple policy changes. The primary outcome was to assess the discrimination ability of waitlist dropouts and LT outcomes. The study focused on the HALT-HCC score, compared with other HCC risk scores. RESULTS: Among 23,858 candidates, 14,646 (59.9%) underwent LT and 5196 (21.8%) dropped out of the waitlist. Higher HALT-HCC scores correlated with increased dropout incidence and lower predicted 5-year overall survival after LT. HALT-HCC demonstrated the highest area under the curve (AUC) values for predicting dropout at various intervals post-listing (0.68 at 6 months, 0.66 at 1 year), with excellent calibration (R2 = 0.95 at 6 months, 0.88 at 1 year). Its accuracy remained stable across policy periods and locoregional therapy applications. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the predictive capability of the continuous oncological risk score to forecast waitlist dropout and post-LT outcomes in patients with HCC, independent of policy changes. The study advocates integrating continuous scoring systems like HALT-HCC in liver allocation decisions, balancing urgency, organ utility, and survival benefit.

Benchmarking clinical risk prediction algorithms with ensemble machine learning for the noninvasive diagnosis of liver fibrosis in NAFLD.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Ensemble machine-learning methods, like the superlearner, combine multiple models into a single one to enhance predictive accuracy. Here we explore the potential of the superlearner as a benchmarking tool for clinical risk prediction, illustrating the approach to identifying significant liver fibrosis among patients with NAFLD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We used 23 demographic/clinical variables to train superlearner(s) on data from the NASH-clinical research network observational study (n = 648) and validated models with data from the FLINT trial (n = 270) and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) participants with NAFLD (n = 1244). Comparing the superlearner's performance to existing models (Fibrosis-4 [FIB-4], NAFLD fibrosis score, Forns, AST to Platelet Ratio Index [APRI], BARD, and Steatosis-Associated Fibrosis Estimator [SAFE]), it exhibited strong discriminative ability in the FLINT and NHANES validation sets, with AUCs of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.73-0.84) and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.68-0.79) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Notably, the SAFE score performed similarly to the superlearner, both of which outperformed FIB-4, APRI, Forns, and BARD scores in the validation data sets. Surprisingly, the superlearner derived from 12 base models matched the performance of one with 90 base models. Overall, the superlearner, being the "best-in-class" machine-learning predictor, excelled in detecting fibrotic NASH, and this approach can be used to benchmark the performance of conventional clinical risk prediction models.

OPTN/SRTR 2022 Annual Data Report: Liver.

In 2022, liver transplant activity continued to increase in the United States, with an all-time high of 9,527 transplants performed, representing a 52% increase over the past decade (2012-2022). Of these transplants, 8,924 (93.7%) were from deceased donors and 603 (6.3%) were from living donors. Liver transplant recipients were 94.5% adult and 5.5% pediatric. The overall size of the liver transplant waiting list contracted, with more patients being removed than added, although 10,548 adult patients still remained on the waiting list at the end of 2022. Alcohol-associated liver disease continued to be the leading diagnosis among both candidates and recipients, followed by metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis. Simultaneous liver-kidney transplant was the most common multiorgan combination, with 800 liver-kidney transplants performed in 2022; in addition, there were 303 new listings for kidney transplant via the safety net mechanism. Among adults added to the liver waiting list in 2021, 39.9% received a deceased donor liver transplant within 3 months; 45.7%, within 6 months; and 54.5%, within 1 year. Pretransplant mortality decreased to 12.3 deaths per 100 patient-years in 2022, although still 15.6% of removals from the waiting list were for death or being too sick for transplant. Graft and patient survival outcomes after deceased donor liver transplant improved, approximating pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels, with 5.1% mortality observed at 6 months; 6.8%, at 1 year; 12.7%, at 3 years; 19.8%, at 5 years; and 35.7%, at 10 years. Five-year graft and patient survival rates after living donor liver transplant exceeded those of deceased donor liver transplant. Candidates receiving model for end-stage liver disease exception points for hepatocellular carcinoma constituted 15.5% of transplants performed in 2022, with similar transplant rates and posttransplant outcomes compared to cases without hepatocellular carcinoma exception. In 2022, more pediatric liver transplant candidates were added to the waiting list and underwent transplant compared with either of the preceding 2 years, with an uptick in living donor liver transplant volume. Although pretransplant mortality has improved after the recent policy change prioritizing pediatric donors for pediatric recipients, still, in 2022, 50 children died or were removed from the waiting list for being too sick to undergo transplant. Posttransplant mortality among pediatric liver transplant recipients remained notable, with death occurring in 4.0% at 6 months, 6.0% at 1 year, 8.2% at 3 years, 9.8% at 5 years, and 13.9% at 10 years. Similar to adult living donor recipients, pediatric living donor recipients had better 5-year patient survival compared with deceased donor recipients.

Management of alcohol-associated liver disease and alcohol use disorder in liver transplant candidates and recipients: Challenges and opportunities.

Alcohol-associated liver disease poses a significant global health burden, with rising alcohol consumption and prevalence of alcohol use disorder (AUD) contributing to increased morbidity and mortality. This review examines the challenges and opportunities in the care of candidates and recipients of liver transplant (LT) with AUD. Despite advancements in posttransplant patient survival, the risk of disease recurrence and alcohol relapse remains substantial. Several challenges have been identified, including (1) rising disease burden of alcohol-associated liver disease, variable transplant practices, and systemic barriers; (2) disparities in mental health therapy access and the impact on transplant; (3) variable definitions, underdiagnosis, and stigma affecting access to care; and (4) post-LT relapse, its risk factors, and consequential harm. The review focuses on the opportunities to improve AUD care for candidates and recipients of LT through effective biochemical monitoring, behavioral and pharmacologic approaches, creating Centers of Excellence for post-LT AUD care, advocating for policy reforms, and ensuring insurance coverage for necessary services as essential steps toward improving patient outcomes. The review also highlights unmet needs, such as the scarcity of addiction specialists, and calls for further research on personalized behavioral treatments, digital health, and value-based care models to optimize AUD care in the LT setting.

Excess waitlist mortality among candidates for multivisceral liver-intestine transplant in acuity circle allocation.

Candidates for multivisceral transplant (MVT) have experienced decreased access to transplant in recent years. Using Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network data, transplant and waiting list outcomes for MVT (ie, liver-intestine, liver-intestine-pancreas, and liver-intestine-kidney-pancreas) candidates listed between February 4, 2018, and February 3, 2022, were analyzed, including model for end-stage liver disease/pediatric end-stage liver disease and exception scores by era (before and after acuity circle [AC] implementation on February 4, 2020) and age group (pediatric and adult). Of 284 MVT waitlist registrations (45.6% pediatric), fewer had exception points at listing post-AC compared to pre-AC (10.0% vs 19.1%), and they were less likely to receive transplant (19.1% vs 35.9% at 90 days; 35.7% vs 57.2% at 1 year). Of 177 MVT recipients, exception points at transplant were more common post-AC compared to pre-AC (30.8% vs 20.2%). Postpolicy, adult MVT candidates were more likely to be removed due to death/too sick compared with liver-alone candidates (13.5% vs 5.6% at 90 days; 24.2% vs 9.8% at 1 year), whereas no excess waitlist mortality was observed among pediatric MVT candidates. Under current allocation policy, multivisceral candidates experience inferior waitlist outcomes compared with liver-alone candidates. Clarification of guidance around submission and approval of multivisceral exception requests may help improve their access to transplantation and achieve equity between multivisceral and liver-alone candidates on the liver transplant waiting list.

Implementation of a National Liver Review Board for exception requests in the United States: A 2-year monitoring report.

The exception point system for liver allocation in the United States allows for additional waitlist priority for candidates where the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease or Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease does not effectively represent their urgency or need for a transplant. In May 2019, the review process for liver exception cases transitioned from 11 Regional Review Boards (RRBs) to 1 National Liver Review Board (NLRB), intended to increase consistency nationwide, improve efficiency, and balance transplant access for candidates with and without exception scores. This report provides a review of liver exception request and review practices, waitlist outcomes, and transplant activity in the first 2 years after implementation of the NLRB and acuity circle-based distribution in the United States. We compared initial and extension exception request forms submitted from May 13, 2017 to May 13, 2019 (prepolicy or RRB era) to the period from February 4, 2020 to February 3, 2022 (postpolicy or NLRB era). During this time, the NLRB reviewed 10,083 initial exception requests and 12,686 extension requests. Notable postpolicy highlights include (1) an increase in the proportion of initial and extension requests that were automatically approved instead of manually reviewed; (2) a decrease in the overall approval rates of initial exception requests (87.8% for adult HCC, 64.3% for adult other diagnoses, and 71.5% for pediatric); and (3) reduction in the time from exception request submission to adjudication to a median of 3.73 days. The proportions of waitlist registration and deceased donor liver transplants for patients with exception scores decreased, and waitlist outcomes between patients with and without exception scores are now comparable. Implementation of the NLRB improved efficiency, reduced case workloads, and standardized criteria for exception cases, with similar waitlist outcomes between patients with and without exception scores and improved equity in terms of access to liver transplants.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of interventional liver-directed therapies for downstaging of HCC before liver transplant.

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and transarterial radioembolization (TARE) are the 2 most used modalities for patients with HCC while awaiting liver transplant. The purpose of this study is to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing TACE and TARE for downstaging (DS) patients with HCC. A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed comparing TACE and TARE in DS HCC over a 5-year time horizon from a payer's perspective. The clinical course, including those who achieved successful DS leading to liver transplant and those who failed DS with possible disease progression, was obtained from the United Network for Organ Sharing. Costs and effectiveness were measured in US dollars and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were performed. TARE achieved a higher effectiveness of 2.51 QALY (TACE: 2.29 QALY) at a higher cost of $172,162 (TACE: $159,706), with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $55,964/QALY, making TARE the more cost-effective strategy. The difference in outcome was equivalent to 104 days (nearly 3.5 months) in compensated cirrhosis state. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that TARE was more cost-effective in 91.69% of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. TARE was more effective if greater than 48.2% of patients who received TACE or TARE were successfully downstaged (base case: 74.6% from the pooled analysis of multiple published cohorts). TARE became more cost-effective when the cost of TACE exceeded $4,831 (base case: $12,722) or when the cost of TARE was lower than $43,542 (base case: $30,609). Subgroup analyses identified TARE to be the more cost-effective strategy if the TARE cohort required 1 fewer locoregional therapy than the TACE cohort. TARE is the more cost-effective DS strategy for patients with HCC exceeding Milan criteria compared to TACE.

Decreased Utilization Rate of Grafts for Liver Transplantation After Implementation of Acuity Circle-based Allocation.

BACKGROUND: The allocation system for livers began using acuity circles (AC) in 2020. In this study, we sought to evaluate the impact of AC policy on the utilization rate for liver transplantation (LT). METHODS: Using the US national registry data between 2018 and 2022, LTs were equally divided into 2 eras: pre-AC (before February 4, 2020) and post-AC (February 4, 2020, and after). Deceased potential liver donors were defined as deceased donors from whom at least 1 organ was procured. RESULTS: The annual number of deceased potential liver donors increased post-AC (from 10 423 to 12 259), approaching equal to that of new waitlist registrations for LT (n = 12 801). Although the discard risk index of liver grafts was comparable between the pre- and post-AC eras, liver utilization rates in donation after brain death (DBD) and donation after circulatory death (DCD) donors were lower post-AC ( P < 0.01; 79.8% versus 83.4% and 23.7% versus 26.0%, respectively). Recipient factors, ie, no recipient located, recipient determined unsuitable, or time constraints, were more likely to be reasons for nonutilization after implementation of the AC allocation system compared to the pre-AC era (20.0% versus 12.3% for DBD donors and 50.1% versus 40.8% for DCD donors). Among non-high-volume centers, centers with lower utilization of marginal DBD donors or DCD donors were more likely to decrease LT volume post-AC. CONCLUSIONS: Although the number of deceased potential liver donors has increased, overall liver utilization among deceased donors has decreased in the post-AC era. To maximize the donor pool for LT, future efforts should target specific reasons for liver nonutilization.

Overcoming the hurdles of steatotic grafts in liver transplantation: Insights into survival and prognostic factors.

With increasing metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, the use of steatotic grafts in liver transplantation (LT) and their impact on postoperative graft survival (GS) needs further exploration. Analyzing adult LT recipient data (2002-2022) from the United Network for Organ Sharing database, outcomes of LT using steatotic (≥30% macrosteatosis) and nonsteatotic donor livers, donors after circulatory death, and standard-risk older donors (age 45-50) were compared. GS predictors were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses. Of the 35,345 LT donors, 8.9% (3,155) were fatty livers. The initial 30-day postoperative period revealed significant challenges with fatty livers, demonstrating inferior GS. However, the GS discrepancy between fatty and nonfatty livers subsided over time ( p = 0.10 at 5 y). Long-term GS outcomes showed comparable or even superior results in fatty livers relative to nonsteatotic livers, conditional on surviving the initial 90 postoperative days ( p = 0.90 at 1 y) or 1 year ( p = 0.03 at 5 y). In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, the high body surface area (BSA) ratio (≥1.1) (HR 1.42, p = 0.02), calculated as donor BSA divided by recipient BSA, long cold ischemic time (≥6.5 h) (HR 1.72, p < 0.01), and recipient medical condition (intensive care unit hospitalization) (HR 2.53, p < 0.01) emerged as significant adverse prognostic factors. Young (<40 y) fatty donors showed a high BSA ratio, diabetes, and intensive care unit hospitalization as significant indicators of a worse prognosis ( p < 0.01). Our study emphasizes the initial postoperative 30-day survival challenge in LT using fatty livers. However, with careful donor-recipient matching, for example, avoiding the use of steatotic donors with long cold ischemic time and high BSA ratios for recipients in the intensive care unit, it is possible to enhance immediate GS, and in a longer time, outcomes comparable to those using nonfatty livers, donors after circulatory death livers, or standard-risk older donors can be anticipated. These novel insights into decision-making criteria for steatotic liver use provide invaluable guidance for clinicians.

Alcohol Use in Liver Transplant Recipients With Alcohol-related Liver Disease: A Comparative Assessment of Relapse Prediction Models.

BACKGROUND: The selection of liver transplant (LT) candidates with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) is influenced by the risk of alcohol relapse (AR), yet the ability to predict AR is limited. We evaluate psychosocial factors associated with post-LT AR and compare the performance of high-risk alcoholism risk (HRAR), sustained alcohol use post-LT (SALT), and the Stanford Integrated Psychosocial Assessment for Transplantation (SIPAT) scores in predicting relapse. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of ALD patients undergoing LT from 2015 to 2021 at a single US transplant center was performed. Risk factors associated with post-LT AR were evaluated and test characteristics of 3 prediction models were compared. RESULTS: Of 219 ALD LT recipients, 23 (11%) had AR during a median study follow-up of 37.5 mo. On multivariate analysis, comorbid psychiatric illness (odds ratio 5.22) and continued alcohol use after advice from a health care provider (odds ratio 3.8) were found to be significantly associated with post-LT AR. On sensitivity analysis, SIPAT of 30 was optimal on discriminating between ALD LT recipients with and without post-LT AR. SIPAT outperformed both the HRAR and SALT scores (c-statistic 0.67 versus 0.59 and 0.62, respectively) in identifying post-LT AR. However, all scores had poor positive predictive value (<25%). CONCLUSIONS: AR after LT is associated with comorbid psychiatric illness and lack of heeding health care provider advice to abstain from alcohol. Although SIPAT outperformed the HRAR and SALT scores in predicting AR, all are poor predictors. The current tools to predict post-LT AR should not be used to exclude LT candidacy.

The short and long-term prognostic influences of liver grafts with high bilirubin levels at the time of organ recovery.

BACKGROUND: Donors with hyperbilirubinemia are often not utilized for liver transplantation (LT) due to concerns about potential liver dysfunction and graft survival. The potential to mitigate organ shortages using such donors remains unclear. METHODS: This study analyzed adult deceased donor data from the United Network for Organ Sharing database (2002-2022). Hyperbilirubinemia was categorized as high total bilirubin (3.0-5.0 mg/dL) and very high bilirubin (≥5.0 mg/dL) in brain-dead donors. We assessed the impact of donor hyperbilirubinemia on 3-month and 3-year graft survival, comparing these outcomes to donors after circulatory death (DCD). RESULTS: Of 138 622 donors, 3452 (2.5%) had high bilirubin and 1999 (1.4%) had very high bilirubin levels. Utilization rates for normal, high, and very high bilirubin groups were 73.5%, 56.4%, and 29.2%, respectively. No significant differences were found in 3-month and 3-year graft survival between groups. Donors with high bilirubin had superior 3-year graft survival compared to DCD (hazard ratio .83, p = .02). Factors associated with inferior short-term graft survival included recipient medical condition in intensive care unit (ICU) and longer cold ischemic time; factors associated with inferior long-term graft survival included older donor age, recipient medical condition in ICU, older recipient age, and longer cold ischemic time. Donors with ≥10% macrosteatosis in the very high bilirubin group were also associated with worse 3-year graft survival (p = .04). DISCUSSION: The study suggests that despite many grafts with hyperbilirubinemia being non-utilized, acceptable post-LT outcomes can be achieved using donors with hyperbilirubinemia. Careful selection may increase utilization and expand the donor pool without negatively affecting graft outcome.

Summary of a consensus conference on heart-liver transplantation.

Patients with severe heart disease may have coexisting liver disease from various causes. The incidence of combined heart-liver transplant (CHLT) is increasing as more patients with congenital heart disease survive to adulthood and develop advanced heart failure with associated liver disease from chronic right-sided heart or Fontan failure. However, the criteria for CHLT have not been established. To address this unmet need, a virtual consensus conference was organized on June 10, 2022, endorsed by the American Society of Transplantation. The conference represented a collaborative effort by experts in cardiothoracic and liver transplantation from across the United States to assess interdisciplinary criteria for liver transplantation in the CHLT candidate, surgical considerations of CHLT, current allocation system that generally results in the liver following the heart for CHLT, and optimal post-CHLT management. The conference served as a forum to unify criteria between the different specialties and to forge a pathway for patients who may need dual organ transplantation. Due to the continuing shortage of available donor organs, ethical issues related to multiorgan transplantation were also debated. The findings and consensus statements are presented.