Using microsimulation to reassess aging trends in Canada.

Population aging is the population issue of the XXI century and many indices are used to measure its level and pace. In Science (2010), Sanderson and Scherbov suggested improvements to the measure of elderly dependency ratio. They identified several limitations to the use of chronological age as the main variable and proposed a new index, the Adult Disability Dependency Ratio, defined as the number of adults at least 20 years old with disabilities divided by the number of similarly aged adults without disabilities. They used the Sullivan prevalence-based method by multiplying derived disability rates to macro population projections. They showed results for several ECE and OECD countries; results for Canada (see online annex, available at https://www.sciencemag.org/content/329/5997/1287/suppl/DC1) were derived using coefficients of Italy. However, disability is a complex multidimensional process (see Carrière, Keefe, Légaré, Lin, & Rowe, 2007; Légaré and Décarie, 2011), and microsimulation can take into account its implied complexity. Our results for Canada, presented here, exceed those in Science to show how more-sophisticated projections of disabled older adults can improve the analysis. We used LifePaths, a Statistics Canada's microsimulation model, to provide a perspective of the phenomena unobtainable with prevalence-based methods.

[Unmet needs for home services among Canadian seniors]. / Les besoins non comblés de services á domicile chez les âinés canadiens.

Based on data from the 2002 General Social Survey, this research presents a global portrait of unmet needs for home care services among Canadians aged 65 and over. It shows that 26.8% of seniors need assistance, accounting for approximately 1,024,000 individuals. Among these, just over 180,000 (17.7%) had at least one unmet need. In nearly half the cases, elderly with unmet needs receive insufficient support for 2 activities or more. Furthermore, house cleaning, house maintenance and outdoor work are the three activities with the highest prevalence of unmet needs. Finally, the younger seniors, those who require assistance for 3 or 4 activities and those living in Quebec and British Columbia are most likely to have unmet needs.

[Who will be the first-born baby boomers at risk of financial vulnerability in retirement? A comparison of Quebec and Ontario]. / Qui seront les premiers nés du baby-boom à risque de vulnérabilité financière à la retraite? Une comparaison Québec-Ontario.

The oncoming retirement of baby boomers has governments worried. Will individual baby boomers demonstrate the ability to prepare financially for their retirement? Well-being in retirement depends largely on financial preparedness during working life. Those baby boomers who are the most vulnerable at the end of their working lives are more likely to become vulnerable during retirement. This study looks at the income of the first baby boomers, those born between 1946 and 1956, aged 50 to 60, according to the 2006 Canadian census. First we establish the socio-economic categories for which members are most financially vulnerable. Then, we estimate how many baby boomers are vulnerable and to what extent. This study's preferred approach is an interprovincial comparison between Quebec and Ontario, used to analyze individual aspects of baby boomers' financial positions.

Key issues in human resource planning for home support workers in Canada.

OBJECTIVE: This paper is a synthesis of research on recruitment and retention challenges for home support workers (HSWs) in Canada. PARTICIPANTS: Home support workers (HSWs) provide needed support with personal care and daily activities to older persons living in the community. METHODS: Literature (peer reviewed, government, and non-government documents) published in the past decade was collected from systematic data base searches between January and September 2009, and yielded over 100 references relevant to home care human resources for older Canadians. RESULTS: Four key human resource issues affecting HSWs were identified: compensation, education and training, quality assurance, and working conditions. To increase the workforce and retain skilled employees, employers can tailor their marketing strategies to specific groups, make improvements in work environment, and learn about what workers value and what attracts them to home support work. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding these HR issues for HSWs will improve recruitment and retention strategies for this workforce by helping agencies to target their limited resources. Given the projected increase in demand for these workers, preparations need to begin now and consider long-term strategies involving multiple policy areas, such as health and social care, employment, education, and immigration.

What will the family composition of older persons be like tomorrow? A comparison of Canada and France.

Western societies are experiencing a dramatic growth in the population aged 75 and older. Changes in family composition raise questions about who will care for those who need assistance. We compared population projections to the year 2030 of those families aged 75 and older in Canada and France. Over the next 25 years, the pool of potential family carers, (i.e., spouses and children), will broaden from the effect of the baby boom and increased proportion of women with spouses. The populations most dependent on formal care, with no potential support from a child or a spouse, will increase more sharply in Canada (123%) than in France (34%) but at a slower rate than the total population. Policy and programs in both countries will need to prepare for a greater number of elderly spouses providing care and in Canada, at least, a significant increase in the number that will need to rely on formal services.