Advances in remote sensing of emperor penguins: first multi-year time series documenting trends in the global population.

Like many polar animals, emperor penguin populations are challenging to monitor because of the species' life history and remoteness. Consequently, it has been difficult to establish its global status, a subject important to resolve as polar environments change. To advance our understanding of emperor penguins, we combined remote sensing, validation surveys and using Bayesian modelling, we estimated a comprehensive population trajectory over a recent 10-year period, encompassing the entirety of the species' range. Reported as indices of abundance, our study indicates with 81% probability that there were fewer adult emperor penguins in 2018 than in 2009, with a posterior median decrease of 9.6% (95% credible interval (CI) -26.4% to +9.4%). The global population trend was -1.3% per year over this period (95% CI = -3.3% to +1.0%) and declines probably occurred in four of eight fast ice regions, irrespective of habitat conditions. Thus far, explanations have yet to be identified regarding trends, especially as we observed an apparent population uptick toward the end of time series. Our work potentially establishes a framework for monitoring other Antarctic coastal species detectable by satellite, while promoting a need for research to better understand factors driving biotic changes in the Southern Ocean ecosystem.

Beneath the Antarctic sea-ice: Fine-scale analysis of Weddell seal (Leptonychotes weddellii) behavior and predator-prey interactions, using micro-sonar data in Terre Adélie.

Lactation is the most energy-demanding event in mammals' reproduction. In pinnipeds, females are the only food providers to the young and have developed numerous behavioral and physiological lactation strategies, from capital-breeding to income-breeding. Lactating females' fine-scale foraging strategy, and precise understanding of how females supplement their pup's needs as well as their own are important to understand the species' ecology and energetic balance. Polar pinnipeds, inhabiting extreme environments, are sensitive to climate change and variability, understanding their constraints and foraging strategy during lactation is therefore important. In 2019, three sonar tags were deployed on lactating Weddell seals in Terre Adélie (East Antarctica) for 7 days, to study fine-scale predator-prey interactions. Feeding activity was mostly benthic, reduced, central-placed, and spatially limited. Females spent most of their time hauled-out. A total of 331 prey capture attempts (PrCAs) were recorded using triaxial acceleration data, with 125 prey identified on echograms (5 cm, acoustic size). All PrCAs occurred on the seafloor, shallower than usual records (mean depth of 88 m, vs 280 m after their molt). We also found that they only fed in three of the five identified dive shapes, during the ascent or throughout the dive. Half of the prey were reactive to the seal's approach, either leaving the seafloor, or escaping just above the seafloor, suggesting that the seals hunt by chasing them from the seabed. Seals continuously scanned the area during the approach phase, evoking opportunistic foraging. Our results provide additional evidence that Weddell seal forage during lactation, displaying a mix of capital-breeding and income-breeding strategies during this period of physiological stress. This work sheds light on previously unexplored aspects of their foraging behavior, such as shallow water environments, targeting benthic prey, generally focusing on single prey rather than schools, and evidence of visual scanning through observed head movements.

Where to live? Landfast sea ice shapes emperor penguin habitat around Antarctica.

Predicting species survival in the face of climate change requires understanding the drivers that influence their distribution. Emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) incubate and rear chicks on landfast sea ice, whose extent, dynamics, and quality are expected to vary substantially due to climate change. Until recently, this species' continent-wide observations were scarce, and knowledge on their distribution and habitat limited. Advances in satellite imagery now allow their observation and characterization of habitats across Antarctica at high resolution. Using circumpolar high-resolution satellite images, unique fast ice metrics, and geographic and biological factors, we identified diverse penguin habitats across the continent, with no significant difference between areas with penguins or not. There is a clear geographic partitioning of colonies with respect to their defining habitat characteristics, indicating possible behavioral plasticity among different metapopulations. This coincides with geographic structures found in previous genetic studies. Given projections of quasi-extinction for this species in 2100, this study provides essential information for conservation measures.

The call of the emperor penguin: Legal responses to species threatened by climate change.

Species extinction risk is accelerating due to anthropogenic climate change, making it urgent to protect vulnerable species through legal frameworks in order to facilitate conservation actions that help mitigate risk. Here, we discuss fundamental concepts for assessing climate change risks to species using the example of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), currently being considered for protection under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA). This species forms colonies on Antarctic sea ice, which is projected to significantly decline due to ongoing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin colonies under different GHG emission scenarios using a climate-dependent meta-population model including the effects of extreme climate events based on the observational satellite record of colonies. Assessments for listing species under the ESA require information about how species resiliency, redundancy and representation (3Rs) will be affected by threats within the foreseeable future. Our results show that if sea ice declines at the rate projected by climate models under current energy system trends and policies, the 3Rs would be dramatically reduced and almost all colonies would become quasi-extinct by 2100. We conclude that the species should be listed as threatened under the ESA.

Landfast ice: a major driver of reproductive success in a polar seabird.

In a fast-changing world, polar ecosystems are threatened by climate variability. Understanding the roles of fine-scale processes, and linear and nonlinear effects of climate factors on the demography of polar species is crucial for anticipating the future state of these fragile ecosystems. While the effects of sea ice on polar marine top predators are increasingly being studied, little is known about the impacts of landfast ice (LFI) on this species community. Based on a unique 39-year time series of satellite imagery and in situ meteorological conditions and on the world's longest dataset of emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) breeding parameters, we studied the effects of fine-scale variability of LFI and weather conditions on this species' reproductive success. We found that longer distances to the LFI edge (i.e. foraging areas) negatively affected the overall breeding success but also the fledging success. Climate window analyses suggested that chick mortality was particularly sensitive to LFI variability between August and November. Snowfall in May also affected hatching success. Given the sensitivity of LFI to storms and changes in wind direction, important future repercussions on the breeding habitat of emperor penguins are to be expected in the context of climate change.

The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins.

The Paris Agreement is a multinational initiative to combat climate change by keeping a global temperature increase in this century to 2°C above preindustrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. Until recently, ensembles of coupled climate simulations producing temporal dynamics of climate en route to stable global mean temperature at 1.5 and 2°C above preindustrial levels were not available. Hence, the few studies that have assessed the ecological impact of the Paris Agreement used ad-hoc approaches. The development of new specific mitigation climate simulations now provides an unprecedented opportunity to inform ecological impact assessments. Here we project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) colonies under new climate change scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement objectives using a climate-dependent-metapopulation model. Our model includes various dispersal behaviors so that penguins could modulate climate effects through movement and habitat selection. Under business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions, we show that 80% of the colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100, thus the total abundance of emperor penguins is projected to decline by at least 81% relative to its initial size, regardless of dispersal abilities. In contrast, if the Paris Agreement objectives are met, viable emperor penguin refuges will exist in Antarctica, and only 19% and 31% colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100 under the Paris 1.5 and 2 climate scenarios respectively. As a result, the global population is projected to decline by at least by 31% under Paris 1.5 and 44% under Paris 2. However, population growth rates stabilize in 2060 such that the global population will be only declining at 0.07% under Paris 1.5 and 0.34% under Paris 2, thereby halting the global population decline. Hence, global climate policy has a larger capacity to safeguard the future of emperor penguins than their intrinsic dispersal abilities.

Coastal polynyas: Winter oases for subadult southern elephant seals in East Antarctica.

Antarctic coastal polynyas are regions of persistent open water and are thought to be key bio-physical features within the sea-ice zone. However, their use by the upper trophic levels of ecosystems remains unclear. A unique bio-physical dataset recorded by southern elephant seals reveals that East Antarctic polynyas are a key winter foraging habitat for male seals. During their post-moult trips from Isles Kerguelen to the Antarctic continental shelf, a total of 18 out of 23 seals visited 9 different polynyas, spending on average 25 ± 20% (up to 75%) of their total trip time inside polynyas. Changes in seal foraging and diving behaviours are observed inside polynyas as compared to outside polynyas. Two polynya usages by seals are observed for the inactive and active polynya phases, pointing to different seasonal peaks in prey abundance. During the active polynya phase, we link seal foraging behaviour to changes in the physical stability of the water-column, which likely impact the seasonal biological dynamics within polynyas.

Bio-physical characterisation of polynyas as a key foraging habitat for juvenile male southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica.

Antarctic coastal polynyas are persistent open water areas in the sea ice zone, and regions of high biological productivity thought to be important foraging habitat for marine predators. This study quantified southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) habitat use within and around the polynyas of the Prydz Bay region (63°E- 88°E) in East Antarctica, and examined the bio-physical characteristics structuring polynyas as foraging habitat. Output from a climatological regional ocean model was used to provide context for in situ temperature-salinity vertical profiles collected by tagged elephant seals and to characterise the physical properties structuring polynyas. Biological properties were explored using remotely-sensed surface chlorophyll (Chl-a) and, qualitatively, historical fish assemblage data. Spatially gridded residence time of seals was examined in relation to habitat characteristics using generalized additive mixed models. The results showed clear polynya usage during early autumn and increasingly concentrated usage during early winter. Bathymetry, Chl-a, surface net heat flux (representing polynya location), and bottom temperature were identified as significant bio-physical predictors of the spatio-temporal habitat usage. The findings from this study confirm that the most important marine habitats for juvenile male southern elephant seals within Prydz Bay region are polynyas. A hypothesis exists regarding the seasonal evolution of primary productivity, coupling from surface to subsurface productivity and supporting elevated rates of secondary production in the upper water column during summer-autumn. An advancement to this hypothesis is proposed here, whereby this bio-physical coupling is likely to extend throughout the water column as it becomes fully convected during autumn-winter, to also promote pelagic-benthic linkages important for benthic foraging within polynyas.

Variability in sea ice cover and climate elicit sex specific responses in an Antarctic predator.

Contrasting regional changes in Southern Ocean sea ice have occurred over the last 30 years with distinct regional effects on ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying how Antarctic predators respond to such changes provides the context for predicting how climate variability/change will affect these assemblages into the future. Over an 11-year time-series, we examine how inter-annual variability in sea ice concentration and advance affect the foraging behaviour of a top Antarctic predator, the southern elephant seal. Females foraged longer in pack ice in years with greatest sea ice concentration and earliest sea ice advance, while males foraged longer in polynyas in years of lowest sea ice concentration. There was a positive relationship between near-surface meridional wind anomalies and female foraging effort, but not for males. This study reveals the complexities of foraging responses to climate forcing by a poleward migratory predator through varying sea ice property and dynamic anomalies.