The Five Canadas of Climate Change: Using audience segmentation to inform communication on climate policy.

This study examines how unique audience segments within the Canadian population think and act toward climate change, and explores whether and how the level of audience engagement moderates the effect of various messages on support for climate policy. Drawing on a random probability sample of Canadian residents (N = 1207) conducted in October 2017, we first identify and describe five distinct audiences that vary in their attitudes, perceptions and behaviours with respect to climate change: the Alarmed (25%), Concerned (45%), Disengaged (5%), Doubtful (17%) and Dismissive (8%). We then explore how each segment responds to different messages about carbon pricing in Canada. We find that messages alluding to earmarking (i.e., "Invest in solutions") or leveling the playing field for alternative energy sources (i.e., "Relative price") increase support for a higher carbon price among the population as a whole. However, these messages decreased support for carbon pricing among more engaged audiences (e.g., Alarmed) when a low carbon price was specified to the respondent. Meanwhile, the "Relative price" is the only message that increased policy support among less engaged audiences-the Concerned and the Doubtful. In addition to highlighting the importance of tailoring and targeting messages for differently engaged segments, these results suggest that communicating around the specific consequences of carbon taxes for the prices of some goods may be a fruitful way to enhance support for carbon taxes among relatively less engaged audiences.

Is the Unequal COVID-19 Burden in Canada Due to Unequal Levels of Citizen Discipline across Provinces?

The unequal burden of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis (e.g., in terms of infection and death rates) across Canadian provinces is important and puzzling. Some have speculated that differences in levels of citizen compliance with public health preventive measures are central to understanding cross-provincial differences in pandemic-related health outcomes. However, no systematic empirical test of this hypothesis has been conducted. In this research, we make use of an exceptionally large dataset that includes 23 survey waves (N = 22,610) fielded in Canada across 12 months (April 2020-April 2021) to answer the question "Is there evidence of substantial cross-provincial differences in citizen compliance with basic public health measures designed to prevent the spread of infection?" We find that regional differences in self-reported behaviour are few and very modest, suggesting that interprovincial differences in COVID-19-related health outcomes have little to do with differences in citizen compliance, at least in the first year of the pandemic. These results have important implications. Although it is crucial that we continue to study regional variations related to the COVID-19 burden, public health agency officials, pundits, and politicians should be cautious when musing about the role of citizen compliance as the primary explanation of interprovincial pandemic health outcomes.

L'inégalité des effets de la maladie du coronavirus 2019 (COVID -19) à travers les provinces canadiennes (notamment quant au taux d'infection et de décès) est importante et intrigante. Certains ont postulé que pour mieux comprendre les écarts dans les effets de la pandémie entre les provinces, il faudrait étudier les écarts dans l'application, par les citoyens, des mesures préventives de santé publique. Toutefois, aucun test empirique systématique n'a été effectué pour valider ce postulat. Dans cette recherche, nous utilisons un base de données de taille exceptionnelle, comprenant 23 vagues d'enquêtes (N= 22,610) réalisées sur 12 mois (avril 2020- avril 2021) pour répondre à la question « Existe-t-il une preuve de différences considérables entre les provinces dans l'application par les citoyens des mesures sanitaires de base en vue de prévenir la transmission de l'infection? ¼ Nous constatons que les différences régionales dans le comportement autodéclaré sont très faibles, ce qui veut dire que l'écart des effets de la COVID-19 sur la santé entre les provinces n'avait pas grand-chose à voir avec l'application des mesures par les citoyens, du moins pendant la première année de la pandémie. Ces résultats ont des implications importantes. Même s'il est capital de continuer à étudier les variations régionales reliées au fléau de la COVID-19, les autorités publiques de la santé, les spécialistes et les politiciens, doivent être vigilants quand ils présentent l'application des mesures par les citoyens comme étant la première explication de l'écart des effets sur la santé entre les provinces.

Citizens' Willingness to Support New Taxes for COVID-19 Measures and the Role of Trust.

The COVID-19 public health pandemic has seen governments spend trillions of dollars to limit the spread of the COVID-19 virus as well as to soften the economic blow from the shutting down of national economies. Subsequent budget shortfalls raise the question of how governments will pay for the direct and indirect costs associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, we study the public's willingness to contribute through paying a new tax, with a focus on Canada. We find that both generalized social and political trust are associated with a greater willingness to support a COVID-related tax and that generalized social trust, in particular, attenuates the negative effect of an experimentally manipulated, specified level of tax burden on policy support. These findings entail important implications for the public opinion and tax policies literature, as well as for policy makers. RELATED ARTICLES: Gainous, Jason, Stephen C. Craig, and Michael D. Martinez. 2008. "Social Welfare Attitudes and Ambivalence about the Role of Government." Politics & Policy 36 (6): 972-1004. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2008.00147 Shock, David R. 2013. "The Significance of Opposition Entrepreneurs on Local Sales Tax Referendum Outcomes." Politics & Policy 41 (4): 588-614. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12028 Wagle, Udaya R. 2013. "The Heterogeneity Politics of the Welfare State: Changing Population Heterogeneity and Welfare State Policies in High-Income OECD Countries, 1980-2005." Politics & Policy 41 (6): 947-984. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12053.

VOLUNTAD DE LOS CIUDADANOS PARA APOYAR NUEVOS IMPUESTOS PARA LAS MEDIDAS COVID­19 Y EL PAPEL DE LA CONFIANZA: La pandemia de salud pública COVID­19 hizo que los gobiernos gastaran billones de dólares para limitar la propagación del virus COVID­19, así como para suavizar el golpe económico del cierre de las economías nacionales. Los posteriores déficits presupuestarios plantean la cuestión de cómo pagarán los gobiernos los costos directos e indirectos asociados con la pandemia de COVID­19. En este documento, estudiamos la disposición del público a contribuir mediante el pago de un nuevo impuesto. Encontramos que tanto la confianza social como política generalizada se asocian con una mayor disposición a apoyar un impuesto relacionado con COVID y que la confianza social generalizada en particular atenúa el efecto negativo de un nivel especificado de carga tributaria manipulado experimentalmente sobre el apoyo a las políticas. Estos hallazgos tienen implicaciones importantes para la opinión pública y la literatura sobre políticas fiscales, y también para los responsables de la formulación de políticas.

A guilt-free strategy increases self-reported non-compliance with COVID-19 preventive measures: Experimental evidence from 12 countries.

Studies of citizens' compliance with COVID-19 preventive measures routinely rely on survey data. While such data are essential, public health restrictions provide clear signals of what is socially desirable in this context, creating a potential source of response bias in self-reported measures of compliance. In this research, we examine whether the results of a guilt-free strategy recently proposed to lessen this constraint are generalizable across twelve countries, and whether the treatment effect varies across subgroups. Our findings show that the guilt-free strategy is a useful tool in every country included, increasing respondents' proclivity to report non-compliance by 9 to 16 percentage points. This effect holds for different subgroups based on gender, age and education. We conclude that the inclusion of this strategy should be the new standard for survey research that aims to provide crucial data on the current pandemic.

The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada.

While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change's causes varies geographically, with more people attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels.