African Hydroclimate During the Early Eocene From the DeepMIP Simulations.

The early Eocene (∼56-48 Myr ago) is characterized by high CO2 estimates (1,200-2,500 ppmv) and elevated global temperatures (∼10°C-16°C higher than modern). However, the response of the hydrological cycle during the early Eocene is poorly constrained, especially in regions with sparse data coverage (e.g., Africa). Here, we present a study of African hydroclimate during the early Eocene, as simulated by an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models in the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). A comparison between the DeepMIP pre-industrial simulations and modern observations suggests that model biases are model- and geographically dependent, however, these biases are reduced in the model ensemble mean. A comparison between the Eocene simulations and the pre-industrial suggests that there is no obvious wetting or drying trend as the CO2 increases. The results suggest that changes to the land sea mask (relative to modern) in the models may be responsible for the simulated increases in precipitation to the north of Eocene Africa. There is an increase in precipitation over equatorial and West Africa and associated drying over northern Africa as CO2 rises. There are also important dynamical changes, with evidence that anticyclonic low-level circulation is replaced by increased south-westerly flow at high CO2 levels. Lastly, a model-data comparison using newly compiled quantitative climate estimates from paleobotanical proxy data suggests a marginally better fit with the reconstructions at lower levels of CO2.

Global warming-induced Asian hydrological climate transition across the Miocene-Pliocene boundary.

Across the Miocene-Pliocene boundary (MPB; 5.3 million years ago, Ma), late Miocene cooling gave way to the early-to-middle Pliocene Warm Period. This transition, across which atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased to levels similar to present, holds potential for deciphering regional climate responses in Asia-currently home to more than half of the world's population- to global climate change. Here we find that CO2-induced MPB warming both increased summer monsoon moisture transport over East Asia, and enhanced aridification over large parts of Central Asia by increasing evaporation, based on integration of our ~1-2-thousand-year (kyr) resolution summer monsoon records from the Chinese Loess Plateau aeolian red clay with existing terrestrial records, land-sea correlations, and climate model simulations. Our results offer palaeoclimate-based support for 'wet-gets-wetter and dry-gets-drier' projections of future regional hydroclimate responses to sustained anthropogenic forcing. Moreover, our high-resolution monsoon records reveal a dynamic response to eccentricity modulation of solar insolation, with predominant 405-kyr and ~100-kyr periodicities between 8.1 and 3.4 Ma.

Orbital variations as a major driver of climate and biome distribution during the greenhouse to icehouse transition.

Recent studies suggest increasing sensitivity to orbital variations across the Eocene-Oligocene greenhouse to icehouse climate transition. However, climate simulations and paleoenvironmental studies mostly provide snapshots of the past climate, therefore overlooking the role of this short-term variability in driving major environmental changes and possibly biasing model-data comparisons. We address this problem by performing numerical simulations describing the end-members of eccentricity, obliquity, and precession. The orbitally induced biome variability obtained in our simulations allows to reconcile previous apparent mismatch between models and paleobotanical compilations. We show that precession-driven intermittent monsoon-like climate may have taken place during the Eocene, resulting in biomes shifting from shrubland to tropical forest in the intertropical convergence zone migration region. Our Oligocene simulations suggest that, along with decreased pCO2, orbital variations crucially modulated major faunal dispersal events around the EOT such as the Grande Coupure by creating and fragmenting the biome corridors along several key land bridges.

Orbital climate variability on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau across the Eocene-Oligocene transition.

The first major build-up of Antarctic glaciation occurred in two consecutive stages across the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT): the EOT-1 cooling event at ~34.1-33.9 Ma and the Oi-1 glaciation event at ~33.8-33.6 Ma. Detailed orbital-scale terrestrial environmental responses to these events remain poorly known. Here we present magnetic and geochemical climate records from the northeastern Tibetan Plateau margin that are dated precisely from ~35.5 to 31 Ma by combined magneto- and astro-chronology. These records suggest a hydroclimate transition at ~33.7 Ma from eccentricity dominated cycles to oscillations paced by a combination of eccentricity, obliquity, and precession, and confirm that major Asian aridification and cooling occurred at Oi-1. We conclude that this terrestrial orbital response transition coincided with a similar transition in the marine benthic δ18O record for global ice volume and deep-sea temperature variations. The dramatic reorganization of the Asian climate system coincident with Oi-1 was, thus, a response to coeval atmospheric CO2 decline and continental-scale Antarctic glaciation.

Dynamic Greenland ice sheet driven by pCO2 variations across the Pliocene Pleistocene transition.

It is generally considered that the perennial glaciation of Greenland lasting several orbital cycles began around 2.7 Ma along with the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation (NHG). Both data and model studies have demonstrated that a decline in atmospheric pCO2 was instrumental in establishing a perennial Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), yet models have generally used simplistic pCO2 constraints rather than data-inferred pCO2 evolution. Here, using a method designed for the long-term coupling of climate and cryosphere models and pCO2 scenarios from different studies, we highlight the pivotal role of pCO2 on the GrIS expansion across the Plio-Pleistocene Transition (PPT, 3.0-2.5 Ma), in particular in the range between 280 and 320 ppm. Good qualitative agreement is obtained between various IRD reconstructions and some of the possible evolutions of the GrIS simulated by our model. Our results underline the dynamism of the GrIS waxing and waning under pCO2 levels similar to or lower than today, which supports recent evidence of a dynamic GrIS during the Plio-Pleistocene.

Palaeogeographic regulation of glacial events during the Cretaceous supergreenhouse.

The historical view of a uniformly warm Cretaceous is being increasingly challenged by the accumulation of new data hinting at the possibility of glacial events, even during the Cenomanian-Turonian (∼95 Myr ago), the warmest interval of the Cretaceous. Here we show that the palaeogeography typifying the Cenomanian-Turonian renders the Earth System resilient to glaciation with no perennial ice accumulation occurring under prescribed CO2 levels as low as 420 p.p.m. Conversely, late Aptian (∼115 Myr ago) and Maastrichtian (∼70 Myr ago) continental configurations set the stage for cooler climatic conditions, favouring possible inception of Antarctic ice sheets under CO2 concentrations, respectively, about 400 and 300 p.p.m. higher than for the Cenomanian-Turonian. Our simulations notably emphasize that palaeogeography can crucially impact global climate by modulating the CO2 threshold for ice sheet inception and make the possibility of glacial events during the Cenomanian-Turonian unlikely.